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Transcript
Energy and climate outlook:
Renewables in a world and
European perspective
Peter Russ
Copenhagen 29 June 2004
1
Energy and Climate Change
Aim: To support policy-making to mitigate conflicts between
energy consumption and environmental and resource
management issues
– Security of supply, preservation of competitiveness
– Kyoto Protocol: Legally binding commitments for the
EU as a whole
– Focus on EU but “problems” of global scale
–
=>POLES model
Copenhagen 29 June 2004
2
World energy, technology and
climate policy outlook 2030
WETO:
• Energy outlook
• Climate policy impact
• Gas/oil case
• Technology cases
http://energy.jrc.es
Copenhagen 29 June 2004
3
Climate Change: Can Technology solve the problem?
How much can emissions be reduced applying modern energy technology?
Is nuclear power the solution? Or renewables?
Technology Cases
Disregarding any carbon abatement target: What is the role of autonomous
technology development in carbon emission reduction?
 World baseline energy projection +
 plausible assumptions on energy technology development including
hypothesis on capital costs, fuel costs, availability factors, fuel
conversion efficiencies, etc.
Copenhagen 29 June 2004
4
Renewables Case
Copenhagen 29 June 2004
5
Impacts of the Technology Stories on electricity generation and CO2
emissions
(Scenario as compared to Reference in % by 2030)
Electricity generation
Total
based on
changes as compared
to Reference in 2030
Total
CO2
CO2
generation emissions emissions
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewables
Gas case
21.6%
-12.2%
-5.3%
-10.5%
0.3%
-7.2%
-1.6%
Coal case
-16.0%
15.0%
-6.5%
-10.2%
1.1%
0.3%
0.0%
Nuclear case
-7.1%
-8.1%
77.5%
-9.9%
0.6%
-7.3%
-2.8%
Renewable case
-12.3%
-8.8%
-2.4%
132.0%
-2.2%
-8.9%
-3.0%
World baseline projection by 2030 are 13730 MtC/year, to be compared with
6052 MtC/year in 1990. The most favorable scenario would yield 13050
MtC/year instead!
Copenhagen 29 June 2004
6
Summary Conclusions of the Technology Scenarios
The Technology Stories offer NO PANACEAS for the CO2 problem mainly
because:
 They have been defined in terms of clusters affecting only a part of emerging
energy markets.
 Breaktroughs in demand technologies would produce more straightforward
results but clusters are harder to identify.
 Scenarios involving fossil fuel technologies while implying efficiency
improvements also imply higher competitiveness via-a-vis less polluting or
non-fossil technologies.
 The magnitude of the world wide CO2 is such that is hard to see how
technology could make a major impact if unassisted by more general policy
measures
Copenhagen 29 June 2004
7
Scenario assumptions and implementation


Renewable premium on output
Different schemes and targets:
 EU15, EU25, OECD
 Electricity generation, primary energy
 Combination with CO2 reduction target
Copenhagen 29 June 2004
8
Renewable Target for Primary Energy
RENEWABLE POLICY -OECD
50000
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
4.7 cents/kWh
PJ
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
2000
Copenhagen 29 June 2004
2010
9
2020
2030
REF (in PJ)
POLICY RNW (in
PJ)
%
60000
REF RATIO %
POLICY RNW
RATIO %
Renewable Technologies
OECD
40000
35000
REF-Wind
30000
REF-Hydro
pj
25000
REF-Biomass
20000
POLICY-Wind
15000
POLICY-Hydro
10000
POLICY-Biomass
5000
0
2000
Copenhagen 29 June 2004
2010
10
2020
2030
Renewable Technologies
CARBON AND RENEWABLE POLICY-OECD
45000
1.3 cents/kWh
18
16
35000
14
PJ
30000
12
10
25000
20000
8
15000
6
10000
5000
4
2
0
0
2000
2010
REF (in PJ)
SEP+RNW (in PJ)
SEP RNW RATIO %
Copenhagen 29 June 2004
11
2020
2030
SEP (in PJ)
REF RNW RATIO %
SEP+RNW RNW RATIO %
%
40000
20
Summary




Renewable penetration rates as discussed can be
achieved at a cost of appr. 5 cents/kWh (OECD)
At this level of a subsidy, the Kyoto protocol targets
for CO2 emission would be met. The cost is however
much higher than in a scenario including all options.
Potential as subject to uncertainty, eg. Biomass
competes with agriculture
Wind energy (onshore) at it’s limit
Copenhagen 29 June 2004
12
Technology Stories




The NUCLEAR Case assumes a breakthough in nuclear technology in
terms of cost and safety
The COAL case involves major improvements in solid fuel burning
technologies and especially affects the technico-economic characteristics of
Supercritical Coal plants, Integrated Gasification Combined Cycles
The GAS case assumes availability of natural gas and introduces major
technico-economic improvements for gas-turbine combined cycles and
combined heat and power plants. Some improvements assumed for all gas
turbine-related technologies. Additionally involves a breakthrough in fuel cell
technologies
The RENEWABLE case implies a major effort and breakthroughs in
Renewable Technologies, notably wind power, biomass gasification, solar
thermal power plants, small hydro and photovoltaics
Copenhagen 29 June 2004
13
Energy and industrial GHG emissions scenarios







Global energy/carbon emission scenarios
World-wide assessment of carbon abatement flexible mechanisms, and
carbon-equivalence among greenhouse gases
Techno-economic assessment of mitigation policies
Long term prospects for climate-protection policies. Integrated assessment
applied to post-Kyoto negotiation processes.
Intra-European analysis of the carbon emission permit markets: flows and
prices within the Kyoto timeframe.
Regional forecasts and analyses (technology options, emission abatement
potential etc): Mediterranean, Latin America, Energy-exporter countries.
Participation in multilateral energy forecasts comparative exercises (IEA, US
DoE, Canada, IIASA, Japan).
Copenhagen 29 June 2004
14
Energy Technology Modelling Scenarios







Energy technology data bases (costs, emissions, efficiencies, market share).
Monitoring and harmonization of external costs estimates.
World energy technology outlook 2030. Identify main trends in energy markets
and the changes in energy technology portfolio.
Dynamics of energy technology development (RTD effect, learning curves, etc) in
order to setup energy RTD priorities.
Prospective analyses of specific energy technology clusters (hydrogen, renewables,
alternative fuels, etc)
Maintenance of a legal and administrative database concerning renewable energy
Economic prospectives of energy provision (Security of supply and energy
technology, impact of supply shocks)
Copenhagen 29 June 2004
15