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Climate Change:
A Northwest Perspective
Peggy Duxbury
Seattle City Light
February 20, 2008
Climate Change: A Northwest perspective
• Most hydro-dependent region = most
affected by climate change impacts
• Allocation Matters!
• NW Leadership on conservation and
renewables should be recognized
• NW utilities spend billions on salmon
recovery, habitat protection, FERC
relicensing to keep hydro operating
Seattle Times, Nov 1, 2006
Power plant CO2 emissions
Power plants in the
Northwest generate
1% of national power
plant CO2 emissions
99%
1%
U.S. Power Plants
The size of each circle
represents the quantity
of emissions in 2002
24 million tons
15 million tons
4.0 million tons
Primary Fuel Type
And 4% of national
power output
Coal = Black
96%
Oil or Diesel = Blue
Natural Gas = Red
4%
LOWEST EMISSION RATES IN US
(lbs of CO2 per mwh of electricity produced)
2,000 lbs/MWh
1,500 lbs/MWh
1,000 lbs/MWh
Northwest Efficiency Achievements
1978 – 2005
3,500
Since 1978 Utility & BPA Programs, Energy Codes & Federal
Efficiency Standards Have Produced Over 3100 aMW of Savings.
Average Megawatts
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1978
1982
BPA and Utility Programs
1986
1990
Alliance Programs
1994
State Codes
1998
2002
Federal Standards
SOURCE: NW Power and Conservation
Council, 2007
Allocation Comparison: Output vs. Emission
Source: EIA 2004 & 2005
Difference between emission and
performance/output approach
@ $5/ton = $479 million
@ $7/ton = $671 million
@ $10/ton = $959 million
Avoided Emissions from NW
conservation (compared to coal)
*CO2 allowance allocation based on total electricity output, including fossil, renewable, and incremental nuclear output (relative to 1990).
Many still do little / no conservation:
“In
most of the11 state where AEP
operates, it’s under no obligation to
hold down demand. On the contrary,
it makes more money the more
electricity people use.”
Source: “Inside the Messy Reality of Cutting Power Plant’s CO2
Output” Wall Street Journal, Thursday, July 12, 2007
Comparison of Emission-Based Allocation
To Top Ten Emitting Utilities v NW States
CO2 levels had
3,100 MW of
conservation
been coal-fired
generation
Tons
*Utility allowance allocation based on 2004 data reported in Ceres, Natural Resource Defense Council, and Public Service Enterprise Group, Benchmarking Air
Emissions of the 100 Largest Electric Power Producers in the United States 2004, (April 2006). State allowance allocation based on 2004 and 2005 EIA data.
Emission-Based Give Many Allowances to Few
Source: “Benchmarking Air Emissions of the 100 Largest Electric Generation Owners -2004”
100%
400,000,000
all others
350,000,000
CO2 based allocation
Output based allocation
Load based allocation (electricity sales)
100 largest producers
75%
300,000,000
250,000,000
50 producers
200,000,000
(
50%
150,000,000
100,000,000
25%
18 producers
FPL
DTE Energy
E.ON
Texas Genco LLC
First Energy
Allegheny Energy
AES
50,000,000
Tons
0
6 producers
NM
0%
MidAmerican
Dominion
Edison International
Progress Energy
TXU
UT
AEP
Southern
DukeOR
TVA
Xcel
AZ Ameren
WA
CA
6-state
region
*CO2 allowance allocation based on total electricity output, including fossil, renewable, and incremental nuclear output (relative to 1990).
Energy Efficiency Scorecard
Highest ranking states: VT, CT, CA, MA, OR, WA, NY, NJ, RI
6
21
50
9
5
25
48
12
49
18
1
27
23
41
13
35
15
34
44
24
11
46
45
33
26 41 27
35
43
35 38
30
30
49 46 38
40
15
29
Maine
15
New Hampshire 18
Vermont
1
Massachusetts
4
Rhode Island
9
Connecticut
1
New York
7
Pennsylvania
14
New Jersey
8
Delaware
30
Maryland
20
Dist. Columbia
22
Lowest ranking states (number higher due to ties): ND, WY,
MS, SD, AL, MO, AR, OK, TN, AK, IN, LA, GA, VA, KY, WV, NE
Source: The State Energy Efficiency Scorecard for 2006, ACEEE, June, 2007
Regional and State Climate Initiatives
Western Regional Climate Action Initiative
Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative
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Maryland
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District of Columbia 
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Maine
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New Hampshire
Vermont
Massachusetts
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Rhode Island
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Connecticut
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New York
California motor vehicle CO2
emissions standards
RPS requirement or goal
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Pennsylvania
New Jersey
Delaware
Florida GHG target
CONCLUSION
• Hydro most impacted power
system from climate change
• Allocation matters!
• Emission-based allocation:
– Disadvantages the NW
– Rewards behavior we should discourage
• NW leadership should be
recognized