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California Climate Impacts Alex Ruane ESP Forum: Fall, 2006 From http://www.water.ca.gov/maps/allprojects.cfm Overview • Unique aspects of California water management • Observations of climate change on California’s water resources • Climate scenario predictions for California • Potential impact on California water resources Geography of California • Population and agricultural centers are apart from rainfall maxima Major rivers State projects Federal projects Local projects From http://education.usgs.gov/california/maps/ From http://www.water.ca.gov/maps/allprojects.cfm California Water System Lake Oroville: From http://orovillerelicensing.water.ca.gov/pdf_docs/bin2%20q5%20many%20photos.pdf • Man-made reservoir operators must meet needs of: - Agricultural use - Municipal use - Domestic use - Hydropower Generation - Local and downstream wildlife - Recreational use - Flood prevention • Canals carry water around state from local and distant sources All-American Canal: From http://www.usbr.gov/dataweb/html/allamcanal.html California’s Natural Water System From http://dommy.com/alan/pix/lone-pine.jpg • Snowpack in Sierra Nevada provide natural reservoir - Accumulate water during the winter - Melt during the spring and summer - Crucial to meeting California’s water needs From http://www.sierranevadaphotos.com/geography/snow_depth.asp Observations of Climate Change in California • Changes in the onset of “springtime” (see Cayan et al., 2001) – Lilac and Honeysuckle blooms – First pulse of springtime runoff • Distribution of Runoff: • • • • Biological changes Invasive species Increased fire risk Sea-level rise From California Water Plan Update, 2005 Observations of Climate Change in the West Changes in April Snow Water Equivalence, from Mote et al., 2005. • Temperature, precipitation and snowpack are changing across the West – Regional changes – Interactions between natural variability and climate change caused by humans • Water resources are shared across the region From Mote et al., 2005. Climate Scenarios • Multiple pathways for the world – The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has dozens of climate scenarios that express potential societal development – Changes can be both gradual and sudden • Three scenarios for California explored in CA DWR Water Plan Update, 2005: – Current Trends – Less Resource Intensive – More Resource Intensive Changes from 2000 - 2030 Climate Scenarios Changes from 2000 - 2030 • The South Coast of California is very vulnerable under both the current trends and resource intensive scenarios Climate Scenarios • Various computer simulations show an expected loss of CA snowpack in the future – Only extend to 2099 Percent changes in snowpack by elevation, from Hayhoe et al., 2004. – Used A1fi (economically driven growth) and B1 (ecologically driven growth) IPCC scenarios – Particularly strong impact on lower elevations, models do not fully agree Projected Impacts • Barnett et al., 2004: – Ran simulations using a coupled ocean/atmosphere model with the “business as usual” emissions scenario • Assumes dominant societal focus is on growth – Regionally downscaled the results to focus on the Western USA Projected Impacts from “business as usual” scenario • By mid-century, Colorado River System will not be able to meet its demands – Reservoirs will be reduced by over 1/3 and releases by as much as 17% – Hydropower generation will be reduced by as much as 40% – The fully allocated Colorado system is “at the brink of failure” • It will be impossible to meet current water needs in the Central Valley – Reduced reliability in water deliveries, hydropower, and river flow rates – A dramatic increase in salinity in the Sacramento Delta is possible • In the Columbia River system (in WA and OR), policy-makers must choose between water for hydroelectric power or salmon runs, but not both • Increased summertime temperature and reduced humidity are likely – Longer and more severe fire season From Barnett et al., 2004. – According to theory and many simulations (e.g. CA DRW studies), increases in evapotranspiration will result in higher irrigation needs Uncertainties • In the size of natural and human-induced variabilities – There is still a significant spread in potential emissions scenarios and climate outlooks • Which pathway will be chosen? – The West Coast of the USA is strongly influenced by interannual and interdecadal oscillations (ENSO, PDO, etc.) • In the Models – Downscaling and regional outlooks are still difficult • In the interactions between climate components – Snowpack vs. T – Snowpack vs. P – Snowpack vs. SST References • Journal Articles – – – – – Barnett, T., R. Malone, W. Pennell, D. Stammer, B. Semtner, and W. Washington, 2004: ‘The effects of climate change on water resources in the West: Introduction and overview’. Climatic Change 62: 1-11 Cayan, D.R., S.A. Kammerdiener, M.D. Dettinger, J.M. Caprio, and D.H. Peterson, 2001: ‘Changes in the onset of spring in the Western United States’. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 82(3): 399-415 Mote, P.W., A.F. Hamlet, M.P. Clark, and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2005: ‘Declining mountain snowpack in Western North America’. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 86(1): 39-49 Hayhoe, K., D. Cayan, C.B. Field, P.C. Frunhoff, E.P. Maurer, N.L. Miller, S.C. Moser, S.H. Schneider, K.N. Cahill, E.E. Cleland, L. Dale, R. Drapek, S.C. Sheridan, and J.H. Verville, 2004: ‘Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California’. PNAS, 101(34): 12422-12427 Miller, N.L, K.E. Bashford, and E. Strem, 2003: ‘Potential impacts of climate change on California hydrology’. J. of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 39(4):771-784 • California Department of Water Resources – Climate Change and California Water Resources: A Survey and Summary of the Literature, 2005 – California Water Plan Update 2005, 2005 – Progress on Incorporating Climate Change into Management of California’s Water Resources, 2006