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Analysing internal causality and sensitivity
to derive coastal sea responses
to varying climate and anthropogenic forcing
Concept for an SFB at the University of Rostock
Presented by Hans Burchard
Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde
[email protected]
Program of this presentation
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The Baltic Sea: a very special marine system
Changing Baltic Sea
Key questions of the SFB
SFB Structure
SFB Model Environment
SFB Graduate School
Baltic Sea
drainage area
Mean freshwater
run-off:
15000 m3/s
Baltic Sea monitoring
Dann kann aber doch fast
gar kein Salz in der Ostsee sein ???
Salinity along
monitoring section
Major Baltic Inflow in January 2003
+
Darss Sill: 19 m
Source: IOW
Oxygen along
monitoring section
A century of salinity in the Central Baltic Sea
Graphics: Markus Meier (SMHI)
Phosphate feedback cycle in the Baltic Sea ecosystem
Have we understood
triggers and limitations
of cyanobacteria blooms ?
Cyanobacteria observation I – Central Baltic Sea
(cell counts)
no clear
long-term trend
no clear correlation
between
cyanobacteria and
forcing factors
1975
1985
1995
2005
1975
1985
1995
2005
Suikkanen et al. 2007
Cyaonobacteria observation II - whole Baltic Sea
(from satellite)
cyano
20
18
16
Temp
14
12
RP*10
WEP*10
6
4
6
4
2
0
2
0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
WEP*10
RP*10
14
12
10
8
1979
Temp
18
16
10
8
1978
cyano
20
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
large inter-annual cyanobacteria fluctuations at small variations of forcing
no clear long-term trend
data by Kahru et al. 2007
(graphics by Inga Hense, IOW)
We do not know the limiting and exitating factors for cyanobacteria blooms.
Many knowledge gaps are due to substantial undersampling
in time and space and in regulating parameters.
As long as we do not know how it works today, we have no predictive
capacity for future developments with respect to climate change and
anthropogenic change.
The anthropogenic influence changes:
inflow
inflow
0,9
inflow
inflow
Phosphate concentrations in winter surface layer in the Eastern Gotland Basin
0,8
0,8
0,7
phosphate (µmol/l)
0,7
0,6
0,6
0,5
0,5
0,4
0,4
0,3
0,3
0,2
0,2
0,1
0,1
0
19581960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
0
Reissmann et al., 2007
Baltic climate of the past 1000 years
Year A.D.
2000
Modern
Warm-P.
1900
Dalton-min.
Laminated black mud
(anoxic)
1800
Maunder-min.
1700
Cold phase
incl.
Little Ice Age
1600
1500
Light grey
homogenous silt
(oxic)
Spörer-min.
1400
1300
1200
1100
Medieval
Warm-P.
1000
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
Temperature deviation (K) from the 1900-1980 mean
0.5
Laminated black mud
(anoxic)
Global climate change: emmission scenarios from IPCC 4th Assessment
http://www.ipcc.ch
Figure SPM.5
Regional climate modeling at the Rossby Centre
Global
Markus Meier (SMHI)
Regional
The coupled system RCAO
RCO
RCA: 44 km, 30 min
RCO: 11 km, 10 min
Coupling timestep: 3 h
ice
ocean
Dtmod
OASIS
atmos
RCA
rivers
landsurf
Model domain, covering most of
Europe and parts of the North
Atlantic Ocean and Nordic Seas.
Only the Baltic Sea is
interactively coupled.
Markus Meier (SMHI)
Dtcoup
The coupling scheme of RCAO. Atmosphere
and ocean/ice run in parallel.
Döscher et al. (2002)
Regionalization is done for ”time-slices” from GCMs
Regional simulations
Results archived from a GCM-run
CO2
1800
Time
1900
2000
Present-day or a Climate scenario
”control” climate
(1961-1990)
Markus Meier (SMHI)
2100
(2071-2100)
Markus Meier (SMHI)
Sea surface salinity
Projection with the largest change
RCAO-E/A2
Present climate
5 psu
Markus Meier (SMHI)
Sea surface salinity
Projection with the largest change
RCAO-E/A2
Present climate
5 psu
52
1500
836
77
145
Markus Meier (SMHI)
Sea surface temperature:
+1.9 … +3.9°C
Annual mean SST (in °C) in
present climate 1961-1990
(upper left), annual mean
bias of simulated present
climate compared to
climatological data (upper
right), and annual mean SST
changes for the ensemble
average (ECHAM4 and
HadAM3H) of the B2 (lower
left) and A2 (lower right)
emission scenarios. The
figure is taken from Meier
(2006, Figs.13 and 14) with
kind permission of Springer
Science and Business Media.
Markus Meier (SMHI)
Sea ice changes
Mean number of ice days averaged for RCAO-H and RCAO-E: control (left
panel), B2 scenario (middle panel), and A2 scenario (right panel). Figure is
adopted from Meier et al. (2004).
Markus Meier (SMHI)
Key questions of SFB
How can the abstract Baltic Sea response function and its interplay
of linear and nonlinear processes be described in terms of
logical, mathematical and numerical model components ?
How does the character of Baltic Sea inflow events react to
climate change and which impact do these modified
inflow dynamics have on the biogeochemical cascades
which they trigger ?
How will the intensity and extent of cyanobacteria blooms react to
climate and anthropogenic changes, and how will they interact
with ecosystem dynamics of the Baltic Sea ?
How will spatio-temporal changes in near-bottom temperature,
salinity and oxygen distributions affect the biodiversity and
extent of benthic fauna, and which consequences does this
have for the benthic-pelagic coupling in the Baltic Sea ?
Key questions of SFB
What is the role of redoxcline processes for overall biogeochemical
cycles in the Baltic Sea and how are the communities and processes
impacted by external forces (e.g., inflow events, turbulent mixing)?
Final overarching question:
To what extend does changing climate and anthropogenic forcing
trigger ecosystem shifts in the Baltic Sea ?
Participating institutes
Institute of Biological Sciences
University of Rostock
Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research
Warnemünde at the University of Rostock
Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology
and Inland Fisheries, Department of
Limnology of Stratified Lakes
Swedish Meteorological and
Hydrological Institute, Nörrköping
Structure of the SFB
S3: Analysis
P1:
P2:
P3:
P4:Diatom-dominated
T1:
T2:
T3:
T4:
T5:
M1:
M2:
M3:
S1:
S2:
Biologically
Organisms’
Quantification
Impact
Small-scale
Pelagic
Cyanobacteria
Photorespiration,
Baltic
Climate
Particle-associated
Structure
Biogeochemical
Sea
of
processes
change
ofturbulent
and
climate
the
mediated
functional
processes
of
function
present
blooms
and
in-situ
element
respiration,
biofilms
reconstruction
–transport
particle
capacity
of
–Baltic
fluxesintermittency
Sea state
influence
dynamics
photoadaptation,
and
at
on
in
carbon
microbial
transformations
anthropogenic
the
the
solute
upper
sediment
biogeochemistry
turnover
communities
of
and
fluxes
light
layers
performance
impact
water
and
origin,
and
between
offluxes
inorganic
the
interface
scenario
in redox
Baltic
sediment
of carbon
simulations
gradients
Proper
onpelagic
diazotrophic
and
of
decomposition
for
primary
the
DNA
the
Baltic
benthic
micro-array
redoxclines
production
cyanobacteria
Sea
and
boundary
sedimentation
layer
Spatial relation of the subprojects
SFB Model Environment
Interlinking between process studies and modelling system
Implementation into
SFB-BGC Module
and
1D testing
Logical and
mathematical
model
Process
studies
P, T & M
Testing in 3D
Ecosystem Model
Process
understanding
required by
models
Analysis of
process
reproduction
System
simulations
S1, S2, S3
SFB Integrated Graduate School:
•for all SFB Ph.D. students
•interdisciplinary teaching for all together
•modelling courses with 1D model system
•teaching in statistical methods
•exercises in field & lab methods
•soft skills
•…
After this SFB, we will know far more about the Baltic Sea system than at present.