Analysing internal causality and sensitivity to derive coastal sea responses to varying climate and anthropogenic forcing Concept for an SFB at the University of Rostock Presented by Hans Burchard Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde [email protected] Program of this presentation • • • • • • The Baltic Sea: a very special marine system Changing Baltic Sea Key questions of the SFB SFB Structure SFB Model Environment SFB Graduate School Baltic Sea drainage area Mean freshwater run-off: 15000 m3/s Baltic Sea monitoring Dann kann aber doch fast gar kein Salz in der Ostsee sein ??? Salinity along monitoring section Major Baltic Inflow in January 2003 + Darss Sill: 19 m Source: IOW Oxygen along monitoring section A century of salinity in the Central Baltic Sea Graphics: Markus Meier (SMHI) Phosphate feedback cycle in the Baltic Sea ecosystem Have we understood triggers and limitations of cyanobacteria blooms ? Cyanobacteria observation I – Central Baltic Sea (cell counts) no clear long-term trend no clear correlation between cyanobacteria and forcing factors 1975 1985 1995 2005 1975 1985 1995 2005 Suikkanen et al. 2007 Cyaonobacteria observation II - whole Baltic Sea (from satellite) cyano 20 18 16 Temp 14 12 RP*10 WEP*10 6 4 6 4 2 0 2 0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 WEP*10 RP*10 14 12 10 8 1979 Temp 18 16 10 8 1978 cyano 20 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 large inter-annual cyanobacteria fluctuations at small variations of forcing no clear long-term trend data by Kahru et al. 2007 (graphics by Inga Hense, IOW) We do not know the limiting and exitating factors for cyanobacteria blooms. Many knowledge gaps are due to substantial undersampling in time and space and in regulating parameters. As long as we do not know how it works today, we have no predictive capacity for future developments with respect to climate change and anthropogenic change. The anthropogenic influence changes: inflow inflow 0,9 inflow inflow Phosphate concentrations in winter surface layer in the Eastern Gotland Basin 0,8 0,8 0,7 phosphate (µmol/l) 0,7 0,6 0,6 0,5 0,5 0,4 0,4 0,3 0,3 0,2 0,2 0,1 0,1 0 19581960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 0 Reissmann et al., 2007 Baltic climate of the past 1000 years Year A.D. 2000 Modern Warm-P. 1900 Dalton-min. Laminated black mud (anoxic) 1800 Maunder-min. 1700 Cold phase incl. Little Ice Age 1600 1500 Light grey homogenous silt (oxic) Spörer-min. 1400 1300 1200 1100 Medieval Warm-P. 1000 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 Temperature deviation (K) from the 1900-1980 mean 0.5 Laminated black mud (anoxic) Global climate change: emmission scenarios from IPCC 4th Assessment http://www.ipcc.ch Figure SPM.5 Regional climate modeling at the Rossby Centre Global Markus Meier (SMHI) Regional The coupled system RCAO RCO RCA: 44 km, 30 min RCO: 11 km, 10 min Coupling timestep: 3 h ice ocean Dtmod OASIS atmos RCA rivers landsurf Model domain, covering most of Europe and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean and Nordic Seas. Only the Baltic Sea is interactively coupled. Markus Meier (SMHI) Dtcoup The coupling scheme of RCAO. Atmosphere and ocean/ice run in parallel. Döscher et al. (2002) Regionalization is done for ”time-slices” from GCMs Regional simulations Results archived from a GCM-run CO2 1800 Time 1900 2000 Present-day or a Climate scenario ”control” climate (1961-1990) Markus Meier (SMHI) 2100 (2071-2100) Markus Meier (SMHI) Sea surface salinity Projection with the largest change RCAO-E/A2 Present climate 5 psu Markus Meier (SMHI) Sea surface salinity Projection with the largest change RCAO-E/A2 Present climate 5 psu 52 1500 836 77 145 Markus Meier (SMHI) Sea surface temperature: +1.9 … +3.9°C Annual mean SST (in °C) in present climate 1961-1990 (upper left), annual mean bias of simulated present climate compared to climatological data (upper right), and annual mean SST changes for the ensemble average (ECHAM4 and HadAM3H) of the B2 (lower left) and A2 (lower right) emission scenarios. The figure is taken from Meier (2006, Figs.13 and 14) with kind permission of Springer Science and Business Media. Markus Meier (SMHI) Sea ice changes Mean number of ice days averaged for RCAO-H and RCAO-E: control (left panel), B2 scenario (middle panel), and A2 scenario (right panel). Figure is adopted from Meier et al. (2004). Markus Meier (SMHI) Key questions of SFB How can the abstract Baltic Sea response function and its interplay of linear and nonlinear processes be described in terms of logical, mathematical and numerical model components ? How does the character of Baltic Sea inflow events react to climate change and which impact do these modified inflow dynamics have on the biogeochemical cascades which they trigger ? How will the intensity and extent of cyanobacteria blooms react to climate and anthropogenic changes, and how will they interact with ecosystem dynamics of the Baltic Sea ? How will spatio-temporal changes in near-bottom temperature, salinity and oxygen distributions affect the biodiversity and extent of benthic fauna, and which consequences does this have for the benthic-pelagic coupling in the Baltic Sea ? Key questions of SFB What is the role of redoxcline processes for overall biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea and how are the communities and processes impacted by external forces (e.g., inflow events, turbulent mixing)? Final overarching question: To what extend does changing climate and anthropogenic forcing trigger ecosystem shifts in the Baltic Sea ? Participating institutes Institute of Biological Sciences University of Rostock Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde at the University of Rostock Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Department of Limnology of Stratified Lakes Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Nörrköping Structure of the SFB S3: Analysis P1: P2: P3: P4:Diatom-dominated T1: T2: T3: T4: T5: M1: M2: M3: S1: S2: Biologically Organisms’ Quantification Impact Small-scale Pelagic Cyanobacteria Photorespiration, Baltic Climate Particle-associated Structure Biogeochemical Sea of processes change ofturbulent and climate the mediated functional processes of function present blooms and in-situ element respiration, biofilms reconstruction –transport particle capacity of –Baltic fluxesintermittency Sea state influence dynamics photoadaptation, and at on in carbon microbial transformations anthropogenic the the solute upper sediment biogeochemistry turnover communities of and fluxes light layers performance impact water and origin, and between offluxes inorganic the interface scenario in redox Baltic sediment of carbon simulations gradients Proper onpelagic diazotrophic and of decomposition for primary the DNA the Baltic benthic micro-array redoxclines production cyanobacteria Sea and boundary sedimentation layer Spatial relation of the subprojects SFB Model Environment Interlinking between process studies and modelling system Implementation into SFB-BGC Module and 1D testing Logical and mathematical model Process studies P, T & M Testing in 3D Ecosystem Model Process understanding required by models Analysis of process reproduction System simulations S1, S2, S3 SFB Integrated Graduate School: •for all SFB Ph.D. students •interdisciplinary teaching for all together •modelling courses with 1D model system •teaching in statistical methods •exercises in field & lab methods •soft skills •… After this SFB, we will know far more about the Baltic Sea system than at present.