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LESSONS LEARNED FROM
PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS
JAPAN
PART 1A: EARTHQUAKES
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for
Disaster Reduction, Vienna,
Virginia, USA
NATURAL HAZARDS THAT PLACE JAPAN’S
COMMUNITIES AT RISK
EARTHQUAKES/TSUNAMIS
GOAL: DISASTER
RESILIENCE
ENACT AND IMPLEMENT
POLICIES HAVING HIGH
BENEFIT/COST FOR
COMMUNITY RESILIENCE
TYPHOONS
FLOODS
LANDSLIDES
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
THE TECTONIC PLATES
REGIONAL MAP
EARTHQUAKES
EARTHQUAKES OCCUR FREQUENTLY IN
THE JAPAN AS A RESULT OF COMPLEX
INTERACTIONS OF THE PHILIPPINE AND
EURASIAN PLATES
EARTHQUAKE RISK
•QUAKE HAZARDS
•BLDG. INVENTORY
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
ACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
Japan’
GOAL: EARTHQUAKE
DISASTER RESILIENCE
COMMUNITIES
POLICY OPTIONS
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
• PREPAREDNESS
•PROTECTION
•EARLY WARNING
•EMERGENCY RESPONSE
•RECOVERY and
RECONSTRUCTION
CAUSES
OF
DAMAGE
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO
HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING
SOIL AMPLIFICATION
PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT
(SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND
FAILURE)
EARTHQUAKES
“DISASTER
LABORATORIES”
IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION
AND PLAN
TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP
POOR DETAILING AND WEAK
CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS
FRAGILITY OF NON-STRUCTURAL
ELEMENTS
SOME OF JAPAN’S NOTABLE
EARTHQUAKE EXPERIENCES
1923
JUNE 16, 1964
JANUARY 17, 1995
MARCH 11, 2011
LESSONS LEARNED FOR
DISASTER RESILIENCE
• ALL NOTABLE
EARTHQUAKES
• PREPAREDNESS
PLANNING FOR
THE INEVITABLE
GROUND
SHAKING IS
ESSENTIAL FOR
COMMUNITY
RESILIENCE.
LESSONS LEARNED FOR
DISASTER RESILIENCE
• ALL NOTABLE
EARTHQUAKES
• PROTECTION OF
BUILDINGS AND
INFRASTRUCTURE
IS ESSENTIAL
FOR COMMUNITY
RESILIENCE.
LESSONS LEARNED FOR
DISASTER RESILIENCE
• ALL NATURAL
HAZARDS
• CAPACITY FOR
INTELLIGENT
EMERGENCY
RESPONSE IS
ESSENTIAL FOR
COMMUNITY
RESILIENCE.
THE GREAT KANTO
EARTHQUAKE: SEPT 1, 1923
• The Mw7.9 Great Kanto earthquake, the
worst in Japanese history, struck the
Kanto Plain near Tokyo in 1923 and
resulted in the deaths of 140,000
people.
• The fiery conflagration that followed
the earthquake was more deadly than
the earthquake’s ground shaking.
THE NIIGATA EARTHQUAKE:
JUNE 16, 1964
• The M7.5 Niigata earthquake devastated
Niigata, located 50 km south of the epicenter,
mainly as a result of massive soil failure and
tsunami waves.
• Although the quake only left 36 dead or
missing and 385 injured, the material damage
was great: 3,534 houses destroyed, 11,000
houses damaged.
THE GREAT HANSHIN (KOBE)
EARTHQUAKE: JAN. 17, 1995
• The M6.8 Kobe devastated Kobe.
• Ground shaking and fires together
destroyed over 150,000 buildings
and left about 300,000 people
homeless, 6,434 dead, 415,000
injured, and economic losses of
$200 billion
THE TOHOKU EARTHQUAKE:
JAN. 17, 1995
• The M9.0 Tojoku earthquake was
huge, but its ground shaking did
NOT cause the disaster that killed
an estimated 21,000 people …
• The tsunami generated by the
earthquake did!
TOHOKU QUAKE: THE RESULT OF
PLATE TECTONICS
AN OFFSHORE EPICENTER
• It only took seconds for the Pand S-waves to reach Sendai,
and about 15 minutes for the
tsunami waves, but what a
difference in damage..
THE GROUND SHAKING
• Strong ground shaking lasted 300
seconds (compared with about 10 - 20
seconds for the 1995 Kobe, Japan
quake).
• But, the ground shaking did not cause
the disaster this time; the tsunami did.
TOHOKU: SUMMARY OF
SOCIETAL IMPACTS
• The earthquake ground shaking and the
tsunami wave run up together caused
major damage to 1.2 million buildings.
• Simultaneously, wide spread fires
burned out of control.
• Economic losses were estimated at
$574 billion.
LESSONS LEARNED FOR
DISASTER RESILIENCE
• ALL NATURAL
HAZARDS
• CAPACITY FOR
RECOVERY AND
RECONSTRUCTION
IS ESSENTIAL FOR
COMMUNITY
RESILIENCE.
WHAT COULD BE THE NEXT EARTHQUAKE DISASTER FOR JAPAN
• A difficult question, but --• It is one that was being asked
before the March 11, 2011
TOHOKU earthquake disaster.
LOCATION OF TOKAI
TOKAI EARTHQUAKE
TECTONICS
• The Nankai trough marks
the boundary where the
Philippines tectonic plate is
subducting beneath Japan
(part of the Eurasian plate).
TOKAI EARTHQUAKE
TECTONICS
• The section along Tokai has
not ruptured since 1854.
TOKAI EARTHQUAKE
TECTONICS
• The recurrence interval of
large- magnitude
earthquakes along this
boundary is believed to
be 100-150 years
TOKAI EARTHQUAKE
TECTONICS
• At present, the land near
Shizuoka is sinking toward the
Nankai trough at about 5 mm/yr.
• Japan’s Earthquake Research
Institute is on record that the
Tokai earthquake could happen
anytime.
TOKAI EARTHQUAKE
• Before the March 11, 2011
Tohoku earthquake, the
Government of Japan
expected its next great
earthquake to be “the
Tokai Earthquake.”
TOKAI EARTHQUAKE
• The precise area along the
Pacific coast- about 160 km (100
mi) southwest of Tokyo-- that is
expected to be affected has been
delineated by scientific studies,
• And, by law, this area is the
focus of intensive preparations.
FORECASTS: TOKAI
EARTHQUAKE
• Estimated deaths — between
7,900 and 9,200 depending on
the amount of advance warning
people have, the time of day
when it occurs, and the
tsunami.
FORECASTS: TOKAI
EARTHQUAKE
• Estimated property damage –as much as $310 billion.
FORECASTS: TOKAI
EARTHQUAKE
• Landslides -- 6,449 specific
locations
• Structures susceptible to
quake-related fires – 58,402
specific houses
TOKAI EARTHQUAKE
• The Government of Japan has an
“early warning action plan based on
the concept of “pre-slip.”
• Pre-slip is based on laboratory
experiments, which indicate that a rock
slips for a short time before it
ultimately fails and generates a big
quake.
MONITORING: TOKAI
EARTHQUAKE
• The Government of Japan is currently
deploying strain meters throughout the
Tokai area to record the slip in order to
provide as much advance warning as
possible.