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LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS JAPAN PART 1A: EARTHQUAKES Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA NATURAL HAZARDS THAT PLACE JAPAN’S COMMUNITIES AT RISK EARTHQUAKES/TSUNAMIS GOAL: DISASTER RESILIENCE ENACT AND IMPLEMENT POLICIES HAVING HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE TYPHOONS FLOODS LANDSLIDES VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE THE TECTONIC PLATES REGIONAL MAP EARTHQUAKES EARTHQUAKES OCCUR FREQUENTLY IN THE JAPAN AS A RESULT OF COMPLEX INTERACTIONS OF THE PHILIPPINE AND EURASIAN PLATES EARTHQUAKE RISK •QUAKE HAZARDS •BLDG. INVENTORY •VULNERABILITY •LOCATION DATA BASES AND INFORMATION ACCEPTABLE RISK RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK Japan’ GOAL: EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE COMMUNITIES POLICY OPTIONS HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS • PREPAREDNESS •PROTECTION •EARLY WARNING •EMERGENCY RESPONSE •RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION CAUSES OF DAMAGE INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING SOIL AMPLIFICATION PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND FAILURE) EARTHQUAKES “DISASTER LABORATORIES” IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP POOR DETAILING AND WEAK CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS FRAGILITY OF NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS SOME OF JAPAN’S NOTABLE EARTHQUAKE EXPERIENCES 1923 JUNE 16, 1964 JANUARY 17, 1995 MARCH 11, 2011 LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE • ALL NOTABLE EARTHQUAKES • PREPAREDNESS PLANNING FOR THE INEVITABLE GROUND SHAKING IS ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE. LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE • ALL NOTABLE EARTHQUAKES • PROTECTION OF BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE IS ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE. LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE • ALL NATURAL HAZARDS • CAPACITY FOR INTELLIGENT EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE. THE GREAT KANTO EARTHQUAKE: SEPT 1, 1923 • The Mw7.9 Great Kanto earthquake, the worst in Japanese history, struck the Kanto Plain near Tokyo in 1923 and resulted in the deaths of 140,000 people. • The fiery conflagration that followed the earthquake was more deadly than the earthquake’s ground shaking. THE NIIGATA EARTHQUAKE: JUNE 16, 1964 • The M7.5 Niigata earthquake devastated Niigata, located 50 km south of the epicenter, mainly as a result of massive soil failure and tsunami waves. • Although the quake only left 36 dead or missing and 385 injured, the material damage was great: 3,534 houses destroyed, 11,000 houses damaged. THE GREAT HANSHIN (KOBE) EARTHQUAKE: JAN. 17, 1995 • The M6.8 Kobe devastated Kobe. • Ground shaking and fires together destroyed over 150,000 buildings and left about 300,000 people homeless, 6,434 dead, 415,000 injured, and economic losses of $200 billion THE TOHOKU EARTHQUAKE: JAN. 17, 1995 • The M9.0 Tojoku earthquake was huge, but its ground shaking did NOT cause the disaster that killed an estimated 21,000 people … • The tsunami generated by the earthquake did! TOHOKU QUAKE: THE RESULT OF PLATE TECTONICS AN OFFSHORE EPICENTER • It only took seconds for the Pand S-waves to reach Sendai, and about 15 minutes for the tsunami waves, but what a difference in damage.. THE GROUND SHAKING • Strong ground shaking lasted 300 seconds (compared with about 10 - 20 seconds for the 1995 Kobe, Japan quake). • But, the ground shaking did not cause the disaster this time; the tsunami did. TOHOKU: SUMMARY OF SOCIETAL IMPACTS • The earthquake ground shaking and the tsunami wave run up together caused major damage to 1.2 million buildings. • Simultaneously, wide spread fires burned out of control. • Economic losses were estimated at $574 billion. LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE • ALL NATURAL HAZARDS • CAPACITY FOR RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION IS ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE. WHAT COULD BE THE NEXT EARTHQUAKE DISASTER FOR JAPAN • A difficult question, but --• It is one that was being asked before the March 11, 2011 TOHOKU earthquake disaster. LOCATION OF TOKAI TOKAI EARTHQUAKE TECTONICS • The Nankai trough marks the boundary where the Philippines tectonic plate is subducting beneath Japan (part of the Eurasian plate). TOKAI EARTHQUAKE TECTONICS • The section along Tokai has not ruptured since 1854. TOKAI EARTHQUAKE TECTONICS • The recurrence interval of large- magnitude earthquakes along this boundary is believed to be 100-150 years TOKAI EARTHQUAKE TECTONICS • At present, the land near Shizuoka is sinking toward the Nankai trough at about 5 mm/yr. • Japan’s Earthquake Research Institute is on record that the Tokai earthquake could happen anytime. TOKAI EARTHQUAKE • Before the March 11, 2011 Tohoku earthquake, the Government of Japan expected its next great earthquake to be “the Tokai Earthquake.” TOKAI EARTHQUAKE • The precise area along the Pacific coast- about 160 km (100 mi) southwest of Tokyo-- that is expected to be affected has been delineated by scientific studies, • And, by law, this area is the focus of intensive preparations. FORECASTS: TOKAI EARTHQUAKE • Estimated deaths — between 7,900 and 9,200 depending on the amount of advance warning people have, the time of day when it occurs, and the tsunami. FORECASTS: TOKAI EARTHQUAKE • Estimated property damage –as much as $310 billion. FORECASTS: TOKAI EARTHQUAKE • Landslides -- 6,449 specific locations • Structures susceptible to quake-related fires – 58,402 specific houses TOKAI EARTHQUAKE • The Government of Japan has an “early warning action plan based on the concept of “pre-slip.” • Pre-slip is based on laboratory experiments, which indicate that a rock slips for a short time before it ultimately fails and generates a big quake. MONITORING: TOKAI EARTHQUAKE • The Government of Japan is currently deploying strain meters throughout the Tokai area to record the slip in order to provide as much advance warning as possible.