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IERM Overall Objectives 1. Quantify relationship between hydrologic and hydraulic attributes and effects on selected ecological performance indicators in the Lake Ontario/St. Lawrence River system. 2. Use these relationships to establish criteria that can be used in the Shared Vision Model (SVM) to provide the “acceptability or tolerance” range for each H&H attribute. 3. Serve as tool to assist ETWG in developing alternative regulation plan proposals. April 22, 2003 Computational Flow in IERM System Geometry DEM Land cover Meteorology Solar Radiation Precipitation Air Temp Wind Lake and upper River Water level time series Temperature in lake Initial Conditions Population Biomass Bottom substrate Management Actions Fish stocking/ harvesting Land use Nutrient loads Natural Stressors ANS (e.g., zebra mussels) Fish-eating birds Flow at Moses-Saunders Dam Velocity in upper river Velocity & water levels in lower river Temperature in upper river Temperature in lower river Wetland habitat Plant community Lake and upper river Fish habitat WUA Lake Wetland habitat Plant community lower river Fish Bioenergetics Upper river Fish pop/comm dynamics Lake Fish pop/comm dynamics Upper river Wetland bird metrics Impoundment habitat Plant community Lower river Fish habitat WUA Upper river Fish Bioenergetics Lake Wetland bird HSI Tributary inflows to lower river Muskrat abundance Lake and upper river Fish habitat WUA Lower river Dabbling ducks - LR Fish Bioenergetics Lower river Fish pop/comm Dynamics Lower river Wetland birds - LR Muskrat abundance Lake and upper river Properties of IERM Time-dependent deterministic model April 22, 2003 Computation flows from plan-driven H&H attributes to ecological endpoints (measures of PIs) Driven by basic system geometry, hydrometeorology, and water level/flow time series for given regulation plan Model will cover three integrated zones: Lake Ontario, upper St. Lawrence River, lower St. Lawrence River Model will illustrate justification for H&H attribute criteria Immediate Questions to Resolve List all “measures of Performance Indicators” to include in IERM Describe cause-effect pathways between H&H attributes (stressors derived from implementation of a given plan) and each Performance Indicator measure included in model April 22, 2003 These pathways will form impact evaluation functions that may be used to establish criteria for plan formulations Not clear if IS concept and approach in SVM will continue to be used (plan detailed meeting with SVM developers) Draft – Measures of Performance Indicators Wetlands Availability, diversity, and quality of plant community Annual biomass production Fish Habitat supply (WSA) (between/within year) Risk of within year habitat loss Northern pike YOY production Northern pike population, structure, size Fish guild biomass (type of guilds?) April 22, 2003 Birds Dabbling duck nesting success Dabbling duck brood survival Dabbling duck migration success Wetland breeding bird diversity Muskrat Abundance Amphibians/reptiles Indicator species diversity and abundance Special Interest species and habitats Fish Cause-Effect Pathways (Example) Water Level & Flow Temperature Fish Species/Guild Habitat Stranding Events Wetland Quantity Area •Inundation Area •Growth •Total Wetland Quality •% Emergent Vegetation •% Floating Vegetation •% Submergent Vegetation •Cattails YOY Abundance •Predation Fish Habitat WSA •Natural Mortality (Graduation) Juvenile Abundance •Growth •Predation •Natural Mortality (Graduation) Adult Abundance •Growth •Natural Mortality •Reproduction April 22, 2003 Waterfowl Cause-Effect Pathways (Example) Lower River Water Level & Flow Total Habitat Acreage Waterfowl P.I. Nesting Success Water Level (@ Sorel) Weekly Average (late April thru July) Growing Season Avg. (Apr-Sep) Spring Average (Apr 10 – May 7) •Maximum nests •% of successful nests by week Brooding Success •Maximum broods •% of maximum broods supported by emergent marshes Migration Success •Maximum waterfowl migration •% of maximum waterfowl migration April 22, 2003 Waterfowl Satisfaction Curves (Lower St. Lawrence) SATISFACTION CURVE FOR WATERFOWL IN THE LOWER ST. LAWRENCE 7,80 MIGRATION BREEDING 7,30 6,84 SOREL IGLD 85 (m) 6,80 6,30 TO AVOID 5,80 6,0 5,75 5,50 5,30 4,70 4,80 4,60 5,0 RECOMMENDED = 100 % SATISFACTION 4,50 TO AVOID 4,30 4,60 4,20 4,10 4,20 April 22, 2003 Sept. 25 Sept. 11 August 28 July 31 August 14 DATE July 17 July 3 June 19 June 5 May 22 May 8 April 24 April 10 3,80 Other Issues to Resolve Needs of faunal habitat characteristics/ resolution Spatial coverage and resolution by zone April 22, 2003 From weekly to decadal Exogenous factors of importance to each PI measure Extrapolate 32 Lake Ontario wetlands to entire basin? Use Lake Saint-Pierre Studies to “indicate” response of entire lower river? Integration of range of time scales Muskrats,amphibians, ducks, pike, palustrine birds, warm water fish guilds, etc.) Provided by individual specialists How to value (express trends in terms of acceptable or unacceptable response to H&H attributes for given plan) PI measures?
