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Setup Marisa Alex Science Alex CPR End Matter Advanced Decision Systems: Agents, Games, and Evolution (AGE). OPIM 319, Spring 2010 Steven O. Kimbrough Operations and Information Management University of Pennsylvania 3:00-4:20, Tuesdays and Thursdays, JMHH F94 2010-04-06. Class 22. CPRs: Common-pool Resources 1 / 33 Setup Marisa Alex Science Alex CPR End Matter Outline 1 Setup 2 Marisa 3 Alex Science Introduction Climate Change Science 4 Alex CPR CPRs: Common-Pool Resources 5 End Matter 2 / 33 Setup Marisa Alex Science Alex CPR End Matter Climate Change Mitigation We will engage in a “rôle play”, a realistic but fictitious case, similar in some ways to those used in negotiations classes. The name of this rôle play is “Climate Change Mitigation.” We are to play employees of a large, international consulting firm, Wharton’s Global Analytics (WGA, not to be confused with the organization whose URL is http://www.global-analytics.com/). Your instructor will play the part of Marisa Kaplan, Senior Partner of Wharton Global Analytics, and Director of the Strategic Analytics Division. Also he will play the part of Alex Chavez, Chief Scientist at Wharton Global Analytics. Students in the course will play the parts of analysts in WGA’s Strategic Analytics Division. Marisa will now explain things to you. Feel free to ask questions. 3 / 33 Setup Marisa Alex Science Alex CPR End Matter The Gig Greetings colleagues. I have asked you to assemble here because we have rather urgently been tasked with an important project. WGA has been retained by the United Nations, specifically by the Secretary General, to help plan for an upcoming effort to strike a global deal to mitigate and adapt to climate change. You may read a concise history of the UN’s efforts on climate change at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_ Nations_Framework_Convention_on_Climate_Change. This history includes the December 2009 meeting in Copenhagen, which was widely reported in the press to be a failure. (Whether that is accurate is another question.) 4 / 33 Setup Marisa Alex Science Alex CPR End Matter The main tasks At the heart of all efforts to mitigate and/or manage climate change is the issue of controlling the release of “greenhouse gases” (GHGs) into the earth’s atmosphere. Principal among the anthropogenic (human-caused) sources are CO2 (carbon dioxide), which is principally sourced by burning fossil fuels, N2 O (nitrous oxide), and CH4 (methane), which comes from a variety of sources, including cattle. Because production of these gases is often beneficial to individuals in the short term (e.g., burning oil for transportation and heating, burning coal for generating electricity), yet seemingly disastrous for humankind in the long term, the Secretary General sees the situation, as do many others, as a social dilemma, one that may have profoundly tragic consequences. 5 / 33 Setup Marisa Alex Science Alex CPR End Matter The main tasks The Secretary sees the problem as having scientific, economic, and broadly political aspects. Our task is to prepare ideas and assessments on the broadly political side. The situation has the makings of a “tragedy of the commons” with potentially dire consequences. Our job is to identify opportunities and roadblocks for a global agreement to mitigate and manage climate change. What are the possibilities for a grand deal to solve this problem? 6 / 33 Setup Marisa Alex Science Alex CPR End Matter Procedures I am assigning each of you to cover one of 8 regions of the world. If you feel you have special interest or expertise in some other region and can find someone to trade with, you may do so. I am requesting a short report (2 pages) from each of you on your assigned (or acquired) regions. This report is due by 9 p.m. on Friday, April 16. Your reports should aim at identifying the main interests and policy goals that your areas will seek to further, in the context of climate change mitigation and adaptation (or management). These goals, of course, need not be directly related to climate change. For example, developing countries may want development aid, developed countries may seek access to markets. On this, keep in mind BATNAs and reservation levels and try to assess them. Also, internal divisions, ideologies, and political commitments that may affect bargaining. 7 / 33 Setup Marisa Alex Science Alex CPR End Matter Procedures (con’t.) The Secretary’s ultimate goal is to devise rules and institutions that will be accepted and honored, and can be monitored. These rules and institutions should lead to a sustainable existence for humankind on the earth. I will promptly review your work products and provide feedback to you on April 17. On April 22 we will meet as a group to discuss and further formulate our findings. In preparation for our April 22 meeting, individuals covering a common region should meet and assemble a brief presentation (with slides) of no more than 6 minutes. In doing this you should pool your findings. In developing your original 2-page reports, you may agree to focus on different areas or topics (or not). In any case, the 2-page reports should be your own work. Level of effort. 2 pages, some reading, plus about 4 hours. 8 / 33 Setup Marisa Alex Science Alex CPR End Matter Further considerations In a nutshell, the basic problem is release to the atmosphere of greenhouse gases. Two approaches Mitigation: act to reduce or reverse causes of climate change Adaptation: act to reduce the negative consequences of climate change Expectation: We’ll have to do both. What mix? Who and what? Our task is to advise the Secretary General, by determining interests and requirements for the several regions, and then to find potential institutional designs (rules of behavior) that will be feasible and lead to sustainable existence. 9 / 33 Setup Marisa Alex Science Alex CPR End Matter Further considerations The subject of climate change is contentious and has been heavily politicized. It is imperative that we avoid becoming participants in the circus. Stick to the facts as well-established. This is a UN operation. Your work on this project needs to meet the highest levels of professionalism. In assessing a region, you are not to advocate either for or against it. Rather, your job is to identify the key issues, interests, constraints associated with the region, with regard to climate change policy. 10 / 33 Setup Marisa Alex Science Alex CPR End Matter Further considerations I will next turn you over to Alex Chavez, our chief scientific advisor. Alex will discuss with you (i) the science behind climate change and (ii) the theoretical concept of common-pool resources. On the science side, the Secretary General wishes to abide by the consensus of the best available science, recognizing at the same time that it is inevitably imperfect. OGIT concept. Are there any questions before I turn things over to Alex? 11 / 33 Setup Marisa Alex Science Alex CPR End Matter Introduction Two topics in what follows Climate change science, as you will have access to it. Common-pool resource situations, and their relevance to climate change. 12 / 33 Setup Marisa Alex Science Alex CPR End Matter Climate Change Science Science Sources Authoritative source of factual information: The IPCC, The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, http://www.ipcc.ch/index.htm. (But there have been mistakes.) The IPCC, consisting of thousands of scientists, has assembled four “assessment reports” on climate change, summarizing what is known and what the certainty of it is. A fifth assessment report is underway. Very confidentially, it seems that established trends will be confirmed at the high end of previously-estimated danger and costs. In our work we shall have to use results from AR4, the fourth assessment report. 13 / 33 Setup Marisa Alex Science Alex CPR End Matter Climate Change Science Science Sources: IPPC’s AR4 From the IPPC homepage http://www.ipcc.ch/index.htm: “The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) was released in 2007, and it consists of four volumes: the three IPCC Working Groups (WGs) Reports and a Synthesis Report (SYR)..." The 4 reports are: 1 2 3 4 Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report WG1: The Physical Science Basis WG II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability WG III: Mitigation of Climate Change 14 / 33 Setup Marisa Alex Science Alex CPR End Matter Climate Change Science IPPC’s AR4 Our time (to make recommendations) is short. We are mainly interested in two SPMs (summaries for policymakers”): 1 Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_ synthesis_report.htm For our purposes, the SPM is key. It is available in PDF. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ ar4/syr/ar4_syr_spm.pdf. File: ar4_syr_spm.pdf on webCafé, ClimateChange folder. 15 / 33 Setup Marisa Alex Science Alex CPR End Matter Climate Change Science IPPC’s AR4 2 Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007 http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ ar4/wg3/en/contents.html For our purposes the SPM is key. It is available in PDF. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-spm.pdf File: ar4-wg3-spm.pdf on webCafé, ClimateChange folder. Each of the two documents is about 20 pages long. 16 / 33 Setup Marisa Alex Science Alex CPR End Matter Climate Change Science IPCC Authoritative science. Findings are by consensus, based on reviews of peer-reviewed scientific literature. Findings come with estimates of agreement and level of evidence. There have been, inevitably, some errors, but this is the best we have and we have to use it. On the whole, we can expect that IPCC findings constitute authoritative science for present purposes. 17 / 33 Setup Marisa Alex Science Alex CPR End Matter Climate Change Science Videos Good on how environment science is done today. TED: Rachel Pike: http: //www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/rachel_pike_ the_science_behind_a_climate_headline.html (4:11) IPCC AR4 summary. UN Climate Change - IPCC Dr. Pachauri http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9kSVNYEwkyk. (7+ minutes) 18 / 33 Setup Marisa Alex Science Alex CPR End Matter Climate Change Science Findings not indispute Concentrations of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide, methane, ozone, and nitrous oxide are increasing owning to fossil-fuel consumption and biomass burning. Carbon dioxide has increased from its pre-industrial level of about 280 parts per million (ppmv) to about 380 ppmv today, an increase of about 35 percent. From ice-core records, it is evident that present levels of CO2 exceed those experienced by the planet at any time over at least the past 650,000 years. [Emanuel, 2007, pages 60–1] 19 / 33 Setup Marisa Alex Science Alex CPR End Matter Climate Change Science Findings not in dispute Concentrations of certain anthropogenic aerosols have also increased owing to industrial activity. The earth’s average surface temperature has increased by about 1.2◦ F in the past century, with most of the increase occurring from about 1920 to 1950, and again beginning around 1975. The years 1998 and 2005 were the warmest in the instrumental record. [Emanuel, 2007, page 61] 20 / 33 Setup Marisa Alex Science Alex CPR End Matter Climate Change Science Findings not in dispute Sea level has risen by about 2.7 inches over the part 40 years; of this, a little over an inch occurred during the past decade. The annual mean geographical extent of arctic sea ice has decreased by 15 to 20 percent since satellite measurements of this began in 1978. [Emanuel, 2007, page 61] 21 / 33 Setup Marisa Alex Science Alex CPR End Matter Climate Change Science Findings with a preponderance of agreement The global mean temperature is now greater than at any other time in at least the past 500 to 1,000 years. Most of the global mean temperature variability is caused by four factors: variability of solar output, major volcanic eruptions, and anthropogenic sulfate aerosols and greenhouse gases. [Emanuel, 2007, page 62] 22 / 33 Setup Marisa Alex Science Alex CPR End Matter Climate Change Science Findings with a preponderance of agreement The dramatic rise in global mean temperature in the past 30 years is owing primarily to increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations and a leveling off or slight decline in sulfate aerosols. Unless measures are taken to reduce greenhouse-gas production, global mean temperature will continue to increase, about 2.5 to 9◦ F over the next century, depending on uncertainties and how much greenhouse gas is produced. [Emanuel, 2007, pages 62–3] 23 / 33 Setup Marisa Alex Science Alex CPR End Matter Climate Change Science Findings with a preponderance of agreement As a result of the thermal expansion of sea water and the melting of polar ice caps, sea level will increase six to 16 inches over the next century, though the increase could be larger if large continental ice sheets become unstable. Rainfall will continue to become concentrated in increasingly heavy but less frequent events. [Emanuel, 2007, pages 62–3] 24 / 33 Setup Marisa Alex Science Alex CPR End Matter Climate Change Science Findings with a preponderance of agreement The incidence,intensity, and duration of both floods and drought will increase. The intensity of hurricanes will continue to increase, though their frequency may dwindle. [Emanuel, 2007, page 63] 25 / 33 Setup Marisa Alex Science Alex CPR End Matter Climate Change Science Questions? Before proceeding to CPR problems, are there any questions or comments on the science side? 26 / 33 Setup Marisa Alex Science Alex CPR End Matter CPRs: Common-Pool Resources Concept (This is science, too, social science.) Excellent source materials: [Ostrom, 1990] and [Ostrom et al., 1994]. (Recent Nobel prize in economics.) Chapters 1 and 2 of [Ostrom et al., 1994] are posted on webCafé. A CPR is a good characterized by two properties: 1 2 High subtractability Low excludability Examples of CPR situations: fisheries, water use. The atmosphere is a CPR with respect to release of GHGs. What is used up is the capacity to accept without damage GHGs. 27 / 33 Setup Marisa Alex Science Alex CPR End Matter CPRs: Common-Pool Resources Classical Theory Very pessimistic 1 2 3 Hobbs Leviathon or “the war of all against all” Prisoner’s Dilemma depletion of the resource Olson, logic of collective choice depletion of the resource Note: this is not iterated play by 2 players, but by N players, with N very large. Depletion of the resource wrt climate change would likely eventually make earth uninhabitable by humans. At the very least: terrible economic consequences and loss of life. Classical solutions 1 2 Privatize the commons Leviathon Neither is feasible wrt climate change. (Or is it?) 28 / 33 Setup Marisa Alex Science Alex CPR End Matter CPRs: Common-Pool Resources Enter Ostrom et al. In fact, some CPRs are managed stably for extended periods, decades even centuries. Meadows and forests in Switzerland, Japan (centuries) Irrigation systems in Spain (centuries) Some fisheries Et cetera The CPRs are not depleted, but are stable. Why? How? 29 / 33 Setup Marisa Alex Science Alex CPR End Matter CPRs: Common-Pool Resources Key graph [Ostrom et al., 1994, page 5] In Governing the Commons, however, it was shown that in many instances individuals jointly using a CPR communicate with one another and establish agreed-upon rules and strategies that improve their joint outcomes. By devising their own rules-in-use, individuals using such CPRs have overcome the “tragedy of the commons.” Further, where the institutions they devise have been sustained over long periods of time, it is possible to describe a series of design principles that characterize the robust institutions and to identify the variables most likely to be associated with successful institutional change. 30 / 33 Setup Marisa Alex Science Alex CPR End Matter CPRs: Common-Pool Resources Institutional design The CPRs are managed by institutions. Roughly, characterize these as governing rules, which may be enforced in various ways. “Design principles illustrated by long-enduring CPR institutions” [Ostrom, 1990, page 90] Let’s discuss these in the context of climate change. 31 / 33 Setup Marisa Alex Science Alex CPR End Matter CPRs: Common-Pool Resources Design principles. . . [Ostrom, 1990, page 90] 1 Clearly defined boundaries Individuals or households who have rights to withdraw resource units from [pollute in] the CPR must be clearly defined, as must the boundaries of the CPR itself. 2 Congruence between appropriation and provision rules and local conditions Appropriation rules restricting time, place, technology, and/or quantity of resource units are related to local conditions and to provision rules requiring labor, material, and/or money. 3 Collective-choice arrangements Most individuals affected by the operational rules can participate in modifying the operational rules. 32 / 33 Setup Marisa Alex Science Alex CPR End Matter CPRs: Common-Pool Resources Design principles. . . [Ostrom, 1990, page 90] 4 Monitoring Monitors, who actively audit CPR conditions and appropriator behavior, are accountable to the appropriators or are the appropriators. 5 Graduated sanctions Appropriators who violate operational rules are likely to be assess graduated sanctions (depending on the seriousness and context of the offense) by other appropriators, by officials accountable to these appropriators, or by both. 33 / 33 Setup Marisa Alex Science Alex CPR End Matter CPRs: Common-Pool Resources Design principles. . . [Ostrom, 1990, page 90] 6 Conflict-resolution mechanisms Appropriators and their officials have rapid access to low-cost local arenas to resolve conflicts among appropriators or between appropriators and officials. 7 Minimal recognition of rights to organize The rights of appropriators to devise their own institutions are not challenged by external governmental authorities. 8 For CPRs that are parts of larger systems: Nested enterprises Appropriation, provision, monitoring, enforcement, conflict resolution, and governance activities are organized in multiple layers of nested enterprises. 34 / 33 Setup Marisa Alex Science Alex CPR End Matter CPRs: Common-Pool Resources Conclusion Are there any questions or comments? Remember: This is a quick-drill. Budget about 4–6 hours on this and do your best. 35 / 33 Setup Marisa Alex Science Alex CPR End Matter Emanuel, K. (2007). What We Know about Climate Change. A Boston Review Book. The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA. Ostrom, E. (1990). Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. Ostrom, E., Gardner, R., and Walker, J. (1994). Rules, Games, & Common-Pool Resources. University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor, MI. 36 / 33 Setup Marisa Alex Science Alex CPR End Matter $Id: class-22-AGE-CPR-beamer.tex 1485 2010-04-06 14:27:35Z sok 37 / 33