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Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap: 2005-2035 NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap Sun-Solar System Connection Objectives Agency Strategic Objective: Explore the Sun-Earth system to understand the Sun and its effects on the Earth, the solar system, and the space environmental conditions that will be experienced by human explorers, and demonstrate technologies that can improve future operational systems Open the Frontier to Space Environment Prediction Understand the fundamental physical processes of the space environment – from the Sun to Earth, to other planets, and beyond to the interstellar medium Understand the Nature of Our Home in Space Understand how human society, technological systems, and the habitability of planets are affected by solar variability and planetary magnetic fields Safeguard The Journey of Exploration Maximize the safety and productivity of human and robotic explorers by developing the capability to predict the extreme and dynamic conditions in space 2 NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap External and Internal Factors • We are poised to transform knowledge and provide predictive understanding of the SSSC system • Our technological society needs space weather knowledge to function efficiently • Human beings require space weather predictions to work safely and productively in space 3 NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap Nature of the Challenge A quantitative, predictive understanding of a complex system of systems Microphysical processes regulate global & interplanetary structures Multi-constituent plasmas and complex photochemistry Non-linear dynamic responses Solar CME engulfing the Earth: http://sun.stanford.edu/roadmap/NewZoom2.mov Integration and synthesis of multi-point observations Data assimilative models & theory Interdisciplinary communities and tools 4 NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap We Have Already Begun! Space Storms at Earth Disturbed Mars-Space & Atmospheric Loss Dangerous Radiation Space Storms at the Outer Planets Disturbed Upper Atmosphere Solar System Blast Wave Current Sun-Earth missions provide a prototype “SSSC Great Observatory”, providing a first look at the system level view and informing the roadmap plan Theory, modeling, and observational tools now exist or can be developed to yield both transformational knowledge of the Sun-Earth system and provide needed tools and space weather knowledge for human exploration and societal needs The SSSC Great Observatory must adapt as new questions and capabilities 5 Sun Solar System Connection Roadmap Development National Objectives Elements of Strategy NAS Decadal Survey and additional studies NASA Strategic Objective #15 OSS/SEC 2003 Roadmaps Research Focus Areas Framework Vision for Space Exploration Objectives Frontier, Home, Journey Investigations Potential Achievements Missions & Supporting Elements Flow Down: Setting Priorities Required Understanding Capability Measurements Current Budget Mission Scenario Optimized Mission Scenario STP LWS Explorers Great Observatory Low Cost Access to Space Technology Supporting Research Programs Education & Public Outreach NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap Open the Frontier to Space Weather Prediction Understand the fundamental physical processes of the space environment – from the Sun to Earth, to other planets, and beyond to the interstellar medium 1) Understand magnetic reconnection as revealed in solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and geospace storms 2) Understand the plasma processes that accelerate and transport particles throughout the solar system 3) Understand the role of plasma neutral interactions in nonlinear coupling of regions throughout the solar system 4) Understand the creation of variability of magnetic dynamos and how they drive the dynamics of solar, planetary and stellar environments 7 NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap Understand the Nature of our Home in Space Understand how human society, technological systems, and the habitability of planets are affected by solar variability and planetary magnetic fields 1) Understand the causes and subsequent evolution of solar activity that affects Earth’s space climate and environment 2) Understand changes in the Earth’s magnetosphere, ionosphere, and upper atmosphere to enable specification, prediction, and mitigation of their effects 3) Understand the Sun's role as an energy source to the Earth’s atmosphere, particularly the role of solar variability in driving atmospheric and climate change 4) Apply our understanding of space plasma physics to the role of stellar activity and magnetic shielding in planetary system evolution and habitability 8 NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap Safeguard the Journey of Exploration Maximize the safety and productivity of human and robotic explorers by developing the capability to predict the extreme and dynamic conditions in space 1) Characterize the variability and extremes of the space environments that will be encountered by human and robotic explorers 2) Develop the capability to predict the origin of solar activity and disturbances associated with potentially hazardous space weather 3) Develop the capability to predict the acceleration and propagation of energetic particles in order to enable safe travel for human and robotic explorers 4) Understand how space weather affects planetary environments to minimize risk in exploration activities 9 NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap Goal Structure Phase 1: 2005-2015 Open the Frontier to Space Environment Prediction Understand the Nature of our Home in Space Safeguard the Journey of Exploration Phase 2: 2015-2025 Measure magnetic reconnection at Model the magnetic processes that the Sun and Earth drive space weather Phase 3: 2025-beyond Predict solar magnetic activity and energy release Determine the dominant processes and sites of particle acceleration Identify key processes that couple solar and planetary atmospheres to the heliosphere and beyond Quantify particle acceleration for the Predict high energy particle flux key regions of exploration throughout the solar system. Understand non-linear processes and couplings to predict atmospheric and space environments Understand the interactions of disparate astrophysical systems Understand how solar disturbances propagate to Earth Identify precursors of important solar disturbances Analyze the first direct samples of the interstellar medium Identify how space weather effects are produced in Geospace Discover how space plasmas and planetary atmospheres interact Quantify mechanisms and processes required for Geospace forecasting Determine how magnetic fields, solar wind and irradiance affect habitability of solar system bodies Enable continuous scientific forecasting of conditions throughout the solar system Determine how stellar variability governs the formation and evolution of habitable planets Identify impacts of solar variability on Earth’s atmosphere Integrate solar variability effects into Earth climate models Forecast atmospheric and climate change (joint w/ Earth Science) Determine extremes of the variable Characterize the near-Sun source radiation and space environments region of the space environment at Earth, Moon, & Mars Nowcast solar and space weather and forecast “All-Clear” periods for space explorers near Earth Provide situational awareness of the space environment throughout the inner Solar System Reliably forecast space weather for Reliably predict atmospheric and the Earth-Moon system and begin radiation environment at Mars to nowcasts at Mars ensure safe surface operations Determine Mars atmospheric variability relevant to Exploration • Develop technologies, observations, and knowledge systems that support operational systems 10 Sun-Solar System Mission Recommendations Phase 1 Sun-Earth-Moon System Characterization of System Phase 2 Sun - Terrestrial Planets Modeling of System Elements Future Mission Recommendations Solar: : SDO, Solar-B Solar Processes: CMEs & Heliosphere: Geospace System Impacts: GEC, GEMINI, MagCon Radiation: Climate Impacts: LRO, MSL, ADAM Mars Atmospheric Reconnaissance Satellite Space Weather Stations: DBC, FS/Shields Planetary Orbiters: IoE, SCOPE, NO, TE, VAP Solar System Space Weather: Interstellar Medium: SEPM, SWBuoys Interstellar Probe Planetary Orbiters: Habitability: Pluto/Kuiper, JPO/JUNO Solar Probe 2005 Solar System Space Weather: Heliostorm Interstellar Boundary: IBEX Inner Boundary: Already In Development or Formulation Explorer Partnership Recommended AAMP, IMC, ITMC, ITMW Mars Atmosphere: SDO, AIM Moon, Mars Awareness: Geospace System Impacts: L1 Earth-Sun, SECEP Geospace Impacts: Heliospheric Structure & Disturbances: HIGO, SPI/Telemachus Climate Impacts: RBSP, IHSentinels Solar Processes: MTRAP, RAM Solar Orbiter SDO, STEREO, IHSentinels, Solar Sail Demo MMS, RBSP, THEMIS, ITSP/ITImager Phase 3 Sun-Solar System System Forecasting Stellar Imager Forecast Hazards Characterize Environments Model Systems 2015 2025 2035 Distributed small assets that form an evolving sensor web to sample the vast connection from the Sun to planetary environments and beyond Sun-Solar System Mission Recommendations Optimized Program In Development In Development Recommended Partnership New Initiative Partnership Flagship missions and partnerships: Recommendation: Obtain additional resources and work with partners to implement these missions Sun-Solar System Mission Recommendations Current Constrained Budget Lines In Development Recommended New Initiative Partnership Flagship missions and partnerships: Recommendation: Obtain additional resources and work with partners to implement these missions Optimized program will require more resources … Sun-Solar System Connection Summary