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Food System Futures: dealing with uncertainty and complexity Professor Charles Godfray, Dr. Monika Zurek & Dr Joost Vervoort IFSTAL Oxford, Mar 10th 2016 Charles Godfray Department of Zoology & Director, Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food Food prices FAO Food Price Index Nominal (1990 = 100; Jan 1990 to Feb 2016) Real UN Food and Agriculture Organisation 2014 Future population growth (medium fecundity assumption) Estimate with 95 & 80% confidence limits 2100 2050 Billion people Now 23% chance of peak before 2100 Data Forecast UN Population Division, World Population Prospects, 2015 Revision Per capital calorie demand kcal d-1 Calorie demand increases with income Meat consumption Meat consumption Developed nations China India Africa 1970 1980 1990 Per capita GDP 1990$ yr-1 Tilman et al. 2011 PNAS FAO 2009 2000 Percentage of water withdrawal for agriculture No data < 25% 2540% 40 -60% 6075% 7590% FAO Aquastat 2007 Coming challenge • Continuing demand growth • Urbanisation & mega-cities • Hunger & under-nutrition • Obesity & over-nutrition • Pressures on agriculture • • Water scarcity • Competition for land and soil degradation Resilience to shocks • Climate change • Pests and diseases • Human Making projections about the food system • Statistical extrapolation • Expert judgement • Market models • • Computable General Equilibrium • Partial Equilibrium Scenario techniques AgMip Project Results Dec 2013 Price 60% Area 40% Effect of climate change on yield 20% Additional 20% effect of 0% climate change -20% in 2050 -40% Production Trade Consumption -60% Endogenous adjustment Nelson et al, PNAS 2013 IMPACT: a partial equilibrium model of the food system Daniel Mason D’Cruz & Sherman Robinson (IFPRI) • International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) • 281 food producing area (geopolitical & water basin) • 115 countries, their economies linked by trade • 40 commodities (all major crops) • Humans that make decisions based on food costs and income • Farmers that make decisions based on commodity prices • Economic and population growth exogenous • Can be linked to water and global circulation models • Calculates world market price for each commodity that clears markets given net global trade sums to zero Diet-related health & climate change Team led by Marco Springmann Pete Scarborough & Mike Rayner From DPH, Oxford Couple a global health model to a food economic model (IMPACT), itself driven by climate and crop Models. Deaths due to climate change Avoided deaths, climate change Avoided deaths, no climate change Causes of death Risk categories Fruit & veg Underweight Obese Meat Total Overweight Distribution of climate-change related deaths Springmann et al. March 2, 2016 The Lancet DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(15)01156-3 Caveats • 500m death high emission scenario • Uncertainties in agricultural models; especially over extreme events • Assumptions in economic models • Simplifications in health models (results robust in sensitivity analysis) Conclusions • Modest reductions in consumption but 28% drop in avoided deaths • Diets matter and food system approach needed • Recent WHO estimates of disease burden of climate change too low • Further argument for mitigation • Adopt broad-focus on weight-related risk factor • Greater research focus on fruit and vegetable production and levers of diet change Fraction global population living in cities 67% 50% 30% Data Forecast UN Population Division, World Urbanisation Prospects, 2014 Revision Distribution of large global cities and their growth rates UN Population Division, World Urbanisation Prospects, 2014 Revision Developing country cereal trade Exporting nations Million tonnes - - - Alexandratos & Bruinsma 2014 (FAO) Developing country cereal trade Exporting nations Million tonnes - - - Importing nations Alexandratos & Bruinsma 2014 (FAO) Developing country cereal trade Exporting nations Million tonnes - Net imports - - Importing nations Alexandratos & Bruinsma 2014 (FAO) Egypt Indonesia Algeria Brazil Japan Turkey Iran EU Nigeria United States Mexico South Korea Yemen Philippines Bangladesh 0 2 4 6 8 10 Wheat imports (million MT) Index Mundi 2014 FAO Food Price Index (1990 = 100; Jan 1990 to May 2015) Nominal Real UN Food and Agriculture Organisation 2014 Haiti Cote d’Ivoire Food riots Sudan Cameroon Yemen Mozambique Mozambique Egypt Mauritania Algeria Libya Egypt Saudi Arabia Tunisia Sudan Somalia Yemen Tunisia Oman Morocco India Iraq Bahrain Sudan Syria Uganda Mauritania India Somalia Burundi 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Lagi, Bertrand & Bar-Yam 2011 Scenario development and influencing change in Food systems Monika Zurek ECI, Food Systems Group, University of Oxford Given all the various issues with the food system……….. …..how can we decide on and influence change in the system? …..how can we deal with uncertainty about the future, the complexity of the system, understanding the impact of our decisions and deciding on a way forward? Washington Post, 30 M Sources of Uncertainty when thinking about the Future Ignorance Understanding is limited The unexpected and the novel Surprise can alter directions Volition Human choice matters Source: P. Raskin MA: Four Working Groups Condition and Trends What is the current condition and historical trends of ecosystems and their services? What have been the consequences of changes in ecosystems for human wellbeing? Sub-Global Scenarios Responses Given plausible changes in primary drivers, what will be the consequences for ecosystems, their services, and human well-being? What can we do to enhance well-being and conserve ecosystems? All of the above, at regional, national, local scales Methods to deal with Complexity and Uncertainty Zurek & Henrichs 2007 Scenario Definitions Plausible stories about how the future might unfold from existing patterns, new factors and alternative human choices. The stories can be told in the language of both words and numbers (Raskin, 2005). Plausible descriptions of how the future may develop, based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key relationships and driving forces (Nakicenovic 2000). A tool for ordering one’s perceptions about alternative future environments in which one’s decision might be played out (Schwartz 1996). Plausible alternative futures, each an example of what might happen under particular assumptions (MA, 2005). Possible purposes of a scenarios exercise Science / Research to integrate information from different fields to explore possible developments Education / Public Information to educate and teach public on new developments to raise awareness of policy-makers, stakeholders Strategic Planning / Decision Support to gather different views and to identify issues to frame strategic issues, to identify alternatives to support policy measure development Stakeholder involvement depends on purpose Types of scenarios Qualitative vs. quantitative scenarios, or a combination Exploratory vs. anticipatory scenarios Baseline vs. alternative/policy scenarios Source: Ecosystems and Human Wellbeing: A Handbook for Practitioners (2010) Anatomy of Scenarios Key Dimensions •Multi-dimensional space of variables Boundaries •Spatial •Thematic •Temporal Current Situation •Historic context •Institutional description •Quantitative accounts Driving Forces •Trends •Processes Image of the Future Critical Uncertainties •Resolution alters course of events Plot •Captures dynamics •Communicates effectively Source: P. Raskin 2002 Options for comparing Example from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios across the scenarios Look for future developments that are the same in all scenarios Same trend of rising world population up to 2050 in all scenarios, then stabilization; exact population numbers in 2050 differ. Global forest area declines up to 2050 in all scenarios: velocity of trends differs. Look for uncertain future developments, which differ across scenarios Number of malnourished children in 2050 differs widely among scenarios. Quality and quantity of available water resources by 2050 differ widely among regions and across scenarios. Identify trade-offs described in the scenarios Risk of trading off long-term environmental sustainability for fast improvement in human systems (Global Orchestration). Risk of trading off solutions to global environmental problems (requiring global cooperation) for improving local environments (focusing on local solutions only) (Adapting Mosaic). Risk of trading off biodiversity conservation for food security (Global Orchestration). Identify policy options that make sense in all scenarios Major investments in public goods and poverty reduction, together with elimination of harmful trade barriers and subsidies. Widespread use of adaptive ecosystem management and investment in education. Significant investments in technologies to use ecosystem services more efficiently, along with widespread inclusion of ecosystem services in markets. Source: Ecosystems and Human Wellbeing: A Handbook for Practitioners (2010) Scenario exercises: used both in scientific assessments as well as the business community Strategic planning exercises during cold war period Future studies in 1970s (e.g. Club of Rome) Royal Dutch Shell develops scenarios method for business planning in 1970/80s Scenarios used as conflict management tool (Montefleur scen. in SA, Colombia) Scenarios exercises as part of integrated, global, environmental assessments, such as the IPCC, GEO, MA in 1990s and 2000s IPCC SRES scenarios Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios World Development globalization regionalizatio n Global Orchestration Order from Strength TechnoGarde n Adapting Mosaic reactiv e Now new scenarios work in IPCC: Ecosyste m Manag ement Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) proacti Representative concentration pathways (RCPs) ve Forward looking exercises on the future of food – some examples Stakeholder Workshop Narratives GLOBIOM Quantified Explorative Scenarios EU case studies Fuzzy Cognit ive Modell ing Transition Pathways GLOBIOM Quantified Transition Pathways Local case studies Review of existing food system scenarios Synthesis of scenarios on sustainable food and nutrition security for the EU Thank you! [email protected] Stepping into food scenarios: foresight, policy guidance and games in food systems Joost Vervoort Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford CGIAR Programme on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) FP7 TRANSMANGO H2020 SUSFANS Future Earth FTI Seeds of Good Anthropocenes Overview • • • • • Using scenarios for policy guidance in food systems The potential of games Why game co-design? Examples & ideas Questions for FS governance games • 2013, Vervoort et al. 2014) Using scenarios for food systems policy guidance • CGIAR’s CCAFS programme: scenarios developed with stakeholders and models in 7 global regions (East & West Africa, South &Southeast Asia, Latin America, the Pacific) Using scenarios to formulate many major national and regional policies • FP7 TRANSMANGO: future of EU food system, scenarios + transition pathways – diversity of local case studies + EU-level policy Local and EU-level strategy impacts • H2020 SUSFANS: multi-model FNS toolbox for testing policy options under different scenarios For policy makers, private sector, civil society Using scenarios for policy and investment guidance Two approaches: • 1. start with plan, develop scenarios; test across scenarios (Honduras) • 2. Develop scenarios, develop plans in individual scenarios, test across scenarios (Bangladesh) Draft plan Develop scenarios Develop scenarios Test plan in scenarios Robust plan Robust plan Scenarios Test elements Inspire plan across elements scenarios Scenarios for policy impact • Crucial to integrate scenarios and planning • For major governance challenges – involving non-state actors in policy design; integrating actor agendas; integrating across system levels and scales; • Success factors: process co-design, targeted collaboration, trust, inclusiveness, legitimate & credible but adaptable scenarios, researcher flexibility • Challenges – simple but unfamiliar; against dominant planning cultures, difficult issues etc. GAMES • Massive field of business and research - an explosion of ‘indie’ creativity recently • Digital, board games, role playing, Alternate Reality Games, Augmented Reality, Virtual Reality • History in policy testing (war games..) • Investigating system dynamics - form of participatory modelling • Explore discourses, power, networks… • Roles, changing identities, interactions • Stimulate ‘gameful’ attitudes Beyond scenarios: game cocreation • Playing a pre-designed game together vs designing a game • Help people think about how to capture FS challenges • Highlighting framing and boundary judgements • More ownership • Harness all the strengths of scenarios • Power gaps and empathy: Ugandan farmers and policy makers • Can be designed very close to policy (scenarios) – game playing IS the impact • ‘Modelling’ for FS governance Examples • • • Seeds of Good Anthropocenes (Future Earth) – mixing novel practices with challenging future scenarios in role playing game – players play ‘seeds’ and ‘scenarios’ Developing games with game design students TRANSMANGO game jam with food system actors all across Europe Designing a FS governance game Purpose? What aspects of food system governance? Who? What would a one-sentence description of the game be? Design Primary activity? How many players? Is the game competitive, collaborative, a mix, or otherwise organized? What is the objective, and what are the victory conditions? What information is available? How does the game’s ‘economy’ work, if relevant? Story, atmosphere, emotions – link to game mechanics? Scenarios Are there different starting conditions representing different scenarios? Or different levels/settings? Are the scenarios largely created through internal game play, or through external conditions? Outputs Can the game be used to test different policies or strategies and does it generate recommendations? Does the game generate insights about actor interactions that could be reported on? Does the game result in challenging scenarios (it’s a scenario-generator)? Does the game interact with or connect with information from outside the game setting in some other way? Thank you & get in touch! • • • • Vervoort, J. M., D. H. Keuskamp, K. Kok, R. van Lammeren, T. Stolk, T. Veldkamp, J. Rekveld, R. Schelfhout, B. Teklenburg, A. Cavalheiro Borges, Jáno, S. kóva, W. Wits, N. Assmann, E. Abdi Dezfouli, K. Cunningham, B. Nordeman, and H. Rowlands. 2014a. A sense of change: media designers and artists communicating about complexity in socialecological systems. Ecology and Society 19. Vervoort, J. M., K. Kok, P. J. Beers, R. Van Lammeren, and R. Janssen. 2012. Combining analytic and experiential communication in participatory scenario development. Landscape and Urban Planning 107:203-213. Vervoort, J. M., K. Kok, R. van Lammeren, and T. Veldkamp. 2010. Stepping into futures: Exploring the potential of interactive media for participatory scenarios on social-ecological systems. Futures 42:604-616. Vervoort, J. M., P. K. Thornton, P. Kristjanson, W. Förch, P. J. Ericksen, K. Kok, J. S. I. Ingram, M. Herrero, A. Palazzo, A. E. S. Helfgott, A. Wilkinson, P. Havlík, D. Mason-D'Croz, and C. Jost. 2014b. Challenges to scenarioguided adaptive action on food security under climate change. Global Environmental Change. [email protected] Food System Futures: dealing with uncertainty and complexity Professor Charles Godfray, Dr. Monika Zurek & Dr Joost Vervoort