Download The Nature of Progress - Yau Chung Hei

The Evolution of Civilization
CCGL 9042
Key teachers:
Dr Stacey Cherny (Course Coordinator)
Prof PC Sham
Department of Psychiatry &
Centre for Genomic Sciences
3 September 2014
Lecture 1
• Introduction to the teachers
• Outline of the course
– Explanation of the course title
• What do we mean by evolution?
• What do we mean by civilization?
– What is progress?
– How to we gain knowledge and understanding?
• Scientific method
– Brief human history
– Methods of assessment
– Topics in the course
CCGL9042 Global Issues
The Evolution of Civilization
Key teachers
• Stacey Cherny
– Assistant Professor, Department of
Psychiatry
– BA in Psychology from University of
Winnipeg
– PhD in Behavior Genetics from
University of Colorado, Boulder
• Pak Sham
– Chair Professor of Psychiatric
Genomics
– MB BCh (Oxford), MSc in Statistics
(London), psychiatrist
Overall theme of the course
• The theory of evolution is a useful framework for understand how
humans went from simple hunter-gatherers to modern society, with
massive increases in productivity and therefore quality of life
• Two types of evolution are operating in humans, to varying degrees
at different times:
– Evolution of genes – how our biology has changed over time
– Evolution of ideas – how we do things differently over time
• The course will draw on evolutionary theory, anthropology, history,
economics, and psychology in addressing these issues
• Specialization and trade are what have driven human progress
• How can our knowledge of human nature and past progress be
used to address major societal challenges?
What is evolution?
• Survival of the fittest through natural selection
(Darwin)
– There is natural genetic variation between but
also within individual species and the likelihood of
surviving and reproducing (being selected) is a
function of the particular genes the individual has,
since different genes are more suited to different
environments
The Selfish Gene (Dawkins)
• The Selfish Gene theory of evolution through
natural selection explains how evolution works at
the genetic level
• All organisms (including humans) are designed
and programmed by our DNA, which is composed
of genes which code for proteins which build
organisms
• Natural selection effectively acts on the gene (or
parts of the gene), rather than the individual
Properties of successful genes
(genes which have lots of copies of themselves around)
• Longevity – the organism containing the gene
lives a long life and so become more
numerous
• Fecundity – the organism reproduces
frequently, making more copies of the genes
in contains
• Copying fidelity – when passing on genes to
the next generation, it makes accurate copies
How do we get evolution? Variation!
• Copying errors – once in a while an error in copying is
made. While most errors are harmful, if an error
increases the chances of the organism reproducing, it
gets copied and increases in frequency.
• Recombination – humans and other higher organisms
have two copies (alleles) of each gene; when they
mate, their offspring receive a unique combination of
genes, half from mother and half from father. This
introduces variation, with some combinations better
suited to the environment than others.
The Meme
• An idea, which necessarily resides in the human brain
• Just as genes replicate themselves, so do memes
– A good, or at least compelling, idea will spread to other
people who will in turn spread it further, through imitation
– Memes can recombine, just like genes
• Memes also mutate
– Some mutated memes will replicate better than others,
because they are more useful (or compelling) to people
• Memes generally evolve much faster than genes
Richard Dawkins, The Selfish Gene
The Meme
• Big Bang Theory explains the meme (3:49):
– http://youtu.be/onVxp40MisI
Successful memes
• Longevity
– The longer lived the meme, the more copies would be present
• Fecundity
– For scientific ideas, fecundity can be measured by Impact Factor
– For products, number of copies sold
– But popular memes can sometimes die off quickly, despite being
replicated a huge number of times
– Introduction of variation through mating of ideas
• Copying fidelity
– How accurately the meme is reproduced
– Mutations, giving rise to new memes
Richard Dawkins, The Selfish Gene
Competition among memes
• While memes don’t have alleles, they do still
have competitors
• Humans have limited brain capacity and so
can’t be exposed to, let alone infected by,
infinite memes
– Memes compete for our attention
• However, humans as a whole have a near
infinite capacity for memes and form a
massive collective intelligence
Richard Dawkins, The Selfish Gene
Civilization
• Civilized societies are generally regarded as
those which have
– Government
– A written language
– A social or cultural center
– A city
– Trade
– Money
– A unique culture
What do we mean by civilization in this
course?
• The transition from a simple hunter-gatherer
existence to our complex society, with all the
benefits/risks
• The focus of the course is on how humans
increased their prosperity, or economic
success, which allowed for all the structures of
complex civilizations, and for the massive
improvements in quality of life
What the course isn’t about
• History of civilizations
– The course will focus on the general theme of the
evolution of civilization, through specialization and
trade
• Economic progress
– Some cultures/civilizations will be mentioned for their
significance in this process, but we will not look at a
complete history
– Civilization involves much more than economic
progress, but it can be argued that other aspects of
civilization could not be achieved without economic
progress to allow for free time to concentrate on
things other than survival
Why does economic improvement
matter?
• Improvement in quality of life
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Health
Leisure time
Entertainment
Knowledge and understanding
Happiness
Security
Quality of natural environment
• Increase in quantity of life
– Lifespan
How has progress been achieved?
• Progress required manipulation and control of the
environment
• Progress tends to be gradual and builds on and
combines previous achievements
• Progress is driven by ideas, which broadly speaking,
form culture
• Just as successful genes become more frequent in the
gene pool, successful ideas spread in the pool of ideas
• Specialization and trade
Progress
• The book on which this course is based is The
Rational Optimist, by Matt Ridley
• Let’s hear him introduce this book
– http://youtu.be/OLHh9E5ilZ4 (17 min)
• And a longer talk about the book
– http://youtu.be/9-zLK50w4Q0 (47 min)
Progress in longevity
https://koshland-science-museum.org/sites/all/exhibits/exhib_infectious/public_health_02.jsp
http://alfin2101.blogspot.hk/2011/09/is-this-historical-reprieve-from.html
Increasing food production efficiency
From The Rational Optimist
Declining rates of population growth
From The Rational Optimist
Decline in pollution
From The Rational Optimist
Projections for world GDP/capita
From The Rational Optimist
Method of Inquiry
• How do we find things out about about our
subject area – evolution of civilization or
prosperity?
How to find truth?
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Ask the authorities?
Search the internet?
Survey the opinions of many people?
Discuss with friends to reach an agreement?
Vigorous debate between adversaries?
The Dialectic Method
Formulate the question
Define the terms
Propose different viewpoints (Thesis and Antithesis)
Rational discourse on their merits and difficulties
(appealing to logic rather than emotions)
Arrive at a conclusion (Synthesis)
Socrates
Plato
The Method of Science
• “Observation is the ultimate and final judge of
the truth of an idea”
– Experiments should be well-planned and
carefully conducted to obtain valid
observations
• Ideas come from human imagination
– Should be logically consistent
– Should generate testable (observable)
predictions
– Predictions should be confirmed or refuted
by experiments
The Uncertainty of Science
• “All scientific knowledge is uncertain….
Because we have the doubt, we then propose
looking in new directions for new ideas”
• “This freedom of doubt is an important matter
in the sciences…. I feel a responsibility to
proclaim the value of this freedom and to
teach that doubt is not to be feared, but that it
is to be welcomed as the possibility of a new
potential for human beings”
What science cannot answer
• The question “Should I do this?” can be
divided into two parts:
– “If I do this what will happen?” This is
susceptibility to scientific investigation
– “Do I want this to happen?” This is
ultimately to do with value judgment, which
is highly subjective and personal.
Human History
• Applying the scientific method to the
evolution of civilization requires
considering the history of the human
species
How we know the past
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Memory
Account from eye-witness
Contemporaneous records
Historians’ accounts
Stories, folklore
Human artifacts
Fossils
Radioactive dating
Comparative studies
– Anatomy
– Genetic sequence
– Language
The past of the human race
Hunter-gatherers
Small tribes
Stone tools
Fire
Language
Art
Farming
Settlements
Metal tools
10,000
4,000
Early Civilizations
Egypt
Mesopotamia
Kingdoms of Israel & Judah
China
India
Maya
Great Philosophers
The Death of Socrates
Jacgues-Louis David, 1787
Confucius and His Students
Ming Dynasty. From Wikipedia
“Do not do to others what angers you if
done to you by others”
“What you do not want done to yourself, do
not do to others”
“Be kind, for everyone you meet is fighting
a hard battle”
“To be wronged is nothing unless you
continue to remember it”
“True wisdom comes to each of us when
we realize how little we understand about
life, ourselves, and the world around us”
“Real knowledge is to know the extent of
one’s ignorance”
“To find yourself, think for yourself”
“The more man meditates upon good
thoughts, the better will be his world and the
world at large”
Great Religions
Judaism
Christianity
Islam
Buddhism
Hinduism
The Rise of Science
“In the discussion of natural problems
we ought to begin not with the
Scriptures, but with experiments and
demonstrations”
“Measure what is measurable, and
make measurable what is not”
Galileo (1564-1642)
“If I have seen further than others, it is by
standing upon the shoulders of giants”
“I can calculate the motion of the heavenly
bodies, but not the madness of the people”
Newton (1642-1726)
Literature
“All the world's a stage, and all the
men and women merely players:
they have their exits and their
entrances; and one man in his time
plays many parts, his acts being
seven ages.”
Shakespeare
(1564-1616)
The Globe Theatre
“A day wasted on others is
not wasted on one's self.”
“Charity begins at home, and
justice begins next door.“
Dickens (1812-1870)
Prosperity
“All mankind … being all equal and independent,
no one ought to harm another in his life, health,
liberty or possessions”
“All wealth is the product of labour”
John Locke
(1632-1704)
“It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the
brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but
from their regard to their self interest”
“Little else is requisite to carry a state to the
highest degree of opulence from the lowest
barbarism but peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable
administration of justice”
Adam Smith
(1723-1790)
“Virtue is more to be feared than vice, because its
excesses are not subject to the regulation of
conscience”
Industrialisation
Technological innovations led to machines
that increased output, using less labour
Effect of industrialisation on income levels
(Gross Domestic Product)
From Wikipedia
Socialism
Struggle between the Bourgeoisie (Capitalists) and the
Proletariat (Working Class)
“The production of too many useful things results in too
many useless people”
Karl Marx (1818-1883)
“Capital is dead labour, which, vampire-like, lives only
by sucking living labour”
“The theory of Communism may be summed up in one
sentence: Abolish all private property”
“From each according to his abilities, to each according
to his needs”
“Democracy is the road to socialism”
Course Learning Outcomes
• Demonstrate an understanding and awareness of
the various domains of human progress
• Describe and explain the basic principles of
evolutionary theory as a model for human
progress
• Demonstrate an understanding of how trade and
specialization are central to human advancement
• Apply general knowledge and understanding of
evolutionary theory, psychology, and the
scientific method to solving some societal
problems
Weekly Lectures
• In sequential order, each week a chapter in
The Rational Optimist will be reviewed, with
particular aspects highlighted and expanded
• The PowerPoint presentation will be made
available just before the class starts
• Lectures will often contain videos of experts in
particular areas, since it is often best to hear
ideas from those who either came up
The Rational Optimist
• Chapter One - A better today: the unprecedented present
• Chapter Two - The collective brain: exchange and specialisation after
200,000 years ago
• Chapter Three - The manufacture of virtue: barter, trust and rules after
50,000 years ago
• Chapter Four - The feeding of the nine billion: farming after 10,000 years
ago
• Chapter Five - The triumph of cities: trade after 5,000 years ago
• Chapter Six - Escaping Malthus’s trap: population after 1200
• Chapter Seven - The release of slaves: energy after 1700
• Chapter Eight - The invention of invention: increasing returns after 1800
• Chapter Nine - Turning points: pessimism after 1900
• Chapter Ten - The two great pessimisms of today: Africa and climate after
2010
• Chapter Eleven - The catallaxy: rational optimism about 2100
Tutorials
• Groups of 12 students
• Meeting 1 hour per week,
starting week 3
• Discussion of lecture content and
application to problems in
modern society
• Discussion of other assignments
• The same Tutor will conduct all
tutorials
Dr Larry Baum
Assessment
• 30% tutorial participation (quality and quantity)
• 30% blog contributions (approximately 12001500 words across the whole course)
• 30% group presentation
– 3 minutes of presentation per student
– Will be conducted in the final tutorial class
• 10% in-class quizzes
– 3 or 4 short in-class quizzes will be given to assess
understand of previous lectures/readings
Conclusions
• The scientific method is based on constant questioning, innovative
hypotheses, rational discourse, and empirical experiments
• Important questions concerning values and morals are outside the
realm of science, but are the subject of philosophy, religion and
literature
• Human societies have evolved over the millennia from small huntergatherer communities to cities and states supported by farming, and
finally through industrialization to modern mixed capitalist / socialist
economies
– Specialization and trade has been central to driving this process