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Direct and Indirect Causes of Deforestation Daniel Murdiyarso CIFOR Seminar on Climate Change, Agriculture and Trade Bogor, 12 May 2008 Outline • • • • • Introduction Decreasing forest cover Causes of deforestation Challenges for biofuels development Conclusions Global forest cover is steadily decresing tree cover threshold 0% 100% Courtesy: Matt Hansen, S. Dakota State Univ. Some numbers • Total emissions p.a.: Fossil fuels: LUCF: 7.2 GtC (27 Gt CO2) 5.6 GtC (21 Gt CO2) 1.6 GtC (6 Gt CO2) • Deforestation contributes: 20% • Forest area: 1.3 Bha • Deforestation rate: 11 Mha/y (1%/y) • Deforestation contributes: 0.25%/y to soybeans 6%/y to oil palm C-emissions from LUC in the tropics (million tons) 1400 1200 South and Southeast Asia South and Central America 1000 Sub-Saharan Africa 800 600 400 200 0 18 50 18 65 18 80 18 95 19 10 19 25 19 40 19 55 19 70 19 85 20 00 Source:. Houghton (2004) Deforestation rates in Indonesia Image and Date Forest cover Deforestation rate (Mha/yr) Reference LANDSAT 1997 95,843,088 1.7 Holmes (1999) LANDSAT 1998 95,628,800 1.8 WRI-FWI-GFW (1999) 103,793,886 1.2 JRC/EU (2000) SPOT vegetation 2000 Land-based emissions 3,000 MtCO2e 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 (500) United States China Indonesia Brazil Russia (1,000) Agriculture Forestry Source: PEACE (2007) Peatland drainage and fires Evapotranspiration CO2 emissions Evaporation <> < <> < ∪ Fire Subsidence = Oxidation + Compaction <> < Fire Fire Oxidation + Compaction = Subsidence Water table Drainage canal When enough is enough Î Î 17% 17% of of deforestation deforestation Î Î 24% 24% of of deforestation deforestation Î Î 29% 29% of of deforestation deforestation Source: http://www.panda.org/news_facts/newsroom/index.cfm?uNewsID=125741 Planned deforestation • Logging has played an important role in regional economy • Ministerial Decree 1983 • Involve ca. 30 Mha tropical forests • Large tropical forests have been converted to cash and estate crops (timber, pulpwood and oil-palm plantations) The development of oil-palm plantations in Indonesia (x 1000 ha) Island Kalimantan 1985 1998 New Outstanding 0 563 563 4,760 Sumatra 806 2,240 1,435 9,395 Sulawesi 12 101 89 665 Papua 23 31 8 590 Maluku 0 0 0 236 Others 2 22 20 1,777 843 2,957 2,115 17,423 Total Source: World Bank, 1999 Biofuels development • Is it really green or climate neutral? • Oil palm plantations often result in forest • conversions (including peatlands) and thus increase emissions Can we avoid deforestation while promoting biofuels? Net effect on climate change (Cf - Cop) Compensation point = -------------------------------------------------------------------(12/44) * (CO2eq,min-die - (fcal * CO2eq,bio-die-a)) * YLD Danielsen et al., Forthcoming Causes of deforestation Direct causes Indirect/underlying causes • Agricultural expansions • Wood extraction/ logging • Infrastructure development • • • • • (Geist and Lambin, 2002) (Kaimowitz and Angelsen, 1997) Economic factors Political factors Technological factors Cultural factors Demographic factors Unsustainable wood extraction • Poor logging practices in “legal” concessions • Illegal logging • Debris left behind fuels forest fires Infrastructure development • • Road construction Provides access for timber extraction, conversion, and settlement Economic: Market failures • Commodity prices continue to rise • Carbon, biodiversity, water and other ecosystem services remain underpriced Source: Roberts (2007) Political: Governance failures • • • • Unclear property rights Overlapping jurisdictions Non-transparent decision-making Weak law enforcement and judicial systems Technological: Misguided policies • Structural overcapacity in pulp and paper sector • Insufficient fiber supply from plantations • World demand on pulp and paper China • 2002: 13.5 Mt y-1 • 2005: 25.1 Mt y-1 • Approved further 10.5 Mt y-1 Source: Wright, 2004 Challenges for biofuels • • • • • The EU target for biofuels in the transport sector is 5.7 percent by 2010 and 10 percent by 2020 To what extent is biofuels development leading to the loss of forests and associated ES, such as water and bioD? Under what circumstances can the transition from fossil fuels to biofuels be consistent with broader SD objectives, incl. poverty reduction? How will biofuel crops displace domestic food production and affect food prices? Strong policies and standards/ certification procedures are needed Concluding Remarks • There is a clear linkages between deforestation and world’s demands of fiber, food, and fuel • Understanding the underlying or indirect causes of deforestation is crucial to address REDD and climate change • Most deforestation is driven from outside forestry sector (e.g. palm-oil and pulp & paper) • Land-use policies and spatial planning should consider carbon-rich ecosystems (e.g. peatlands)