Download The Local Coastal Program Update Workshop #2: Adapting to a

The Local Coastal Program Update
Workshop #2: Adapting to a Changing Coastline
Santa Monica High School
Barnum Hall
Wednesday, April 13th, 2016
6:30PM - 8:30PM
Close to 70 residents and stakeholders
from the Santa Monica community
and beyond attended the second
Local Coastal Program Update
community workshop. The event was
held at Santa Monica High School’s
Barnum Hall on April 13th, 2016 from
6:30PM to 8:30PM. The purpose of
the workshop was to provide the community with information on current efforts to address climate
change and sea level rise in Santa Monica and the greater region. The meeting was held in collaboration
with the Office of Sustainability and the Environment and the USC Sea Grant, who are currently
preparing the Climate Action & Adaptation Plan and AdaptLA, respectively.
The evening began with four thematic interactive stations:
“Thinking About Climate Change and Sea Level Rise”, “Protecting
the Coastal Treasures of Santa Monica”, “Coastal Hazards and
Planning for the Future”, and “Visualizing Sea Level Rise”.
Participants wrote their input on the boards and provide their
thoughts, questions, and comments on the four topics. Following
the station exercise, participants were ushered into the theater
where several short “preview” videos were shown that explained
the science behind sea level rise and climate change. LCP Project
Manager Liz Bar-El and OSE Sustainability Analyst Garrett Wong
kicked off the presentation with some background on the subject
matter. Drs. Juliette Hart and David Revell then gave the feature
presentations on the COSMoS study and expectations for the LA
coastline over the next 100 years due to sea level rise. Potential
adaptation measures being used in other localities were also
presented. The presentations were followed by a Q&A session.
This summary includes all written comments received at the
workshop.
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Presentation Summary
Below is a summary of the workshop presentation. A copy
of the full presentation is available for download on the
Local Coastal Program Update project page.
LCP Introduction
The California Coastal Commission’s purpose is to carry out
the 1976 Coastal Act, which lays out the policies for
protecting the California coastline. The Coastal Act also
requires local jurisdictions to create an LCP, which are
planning tools used by local governments to guide
development in the Coastal Zone.
The City of Santa Monica last updated its LCP in 1992. As it
stands, Santa Monica’s LCP does not reflect the current
conditions of the City. The City is updating the LCP again to
reflect and support the plans adopted since 1992, such as
the LUCE, CCSP, Ped and Bike Action Plans, and to abide by
the new Coastal Commission guidelines that require cities
to address sea level rise and climate change. For more
information on the LCP Update process, take a look at the
summary of the first LCP workshop.
Sea Level Rise and the Local Coastal Program
In August of 2015, the Coastal Commission adopted the Sea
Level Rise Policy Guidance document, which requires local
jurisdictions to use the best available science on sea level
rise to create policies that address climate change in the
coastal zone. The document requires local jurisdictions to
develop a series of sea level rise scenarios, and to pick from
a menu of policy options for dealing with climate change.
The document is written for the entire state of California, so
the policy recommendations are meant to be read as
potential options, rather than required actions for each city.
Climate Action & Adaptation Plan
Garrett Wong from OSE briefly introduced the CAAP to the
audience, and clarified the similarities and differences
between the CAAP and LCP. The CAAP addresses climate
change and greenhouse gas emissions at a citywide level,
rather than solely along the coast, as the LCP does. This
means the CAAP considers a longer list of climate change
issues, like temperature changes, heat waves, air quality,
energy assurance, fuel, solid waste, and municipal
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operations. The CAAP also focuses on existing infrastructure, while the LCP focuses on regulations for
future land use and development. The two plans overlap in their consideration of sea level rise
vulnerability and adaptation and resiliency strategies for new construction.
The Land Use Plan portion of the LCP, which contains the goals and policies, is estimated to be
completed and adopted by Summer of 2017. At that point, the CAAP will incorporate the language from
the LUP to ensure consistency across the two plans, and will pursue plan adoption in the Fall of 2017.
Dr. Revell: Sea Level Rise and Climate Change
Dr. David Revell, an expert on sea level rise and climate
change, and a consultant for both the LCP, CAAP, and USC
Sea Grant, began his portion of the presentation with a brief
overview of the impacts of climate change.
The risk of sea level rise cannot be assessed on its own, but
rather in combination with high tides, storm events, and
wave wash-up. All of these factors, combined with sea level
rise, is what puts the coast at risk from climate change.
Climate change, which is attributed to human activities,
must be differentiated from climate cycles, which are
natural cycles that cause ice ages and ice melts. The natural
climate cycle is caused by three orbital cycles of the earth:
the orbit, tilt, and wobble, contribute to past changes in the
Earth’s climate.
The three orbital cycles are the reason for the last ice ages.
20,000 years ago temperatures dropped and 3% of the
ocean’s water was transferred to the continents as ice,
lowering sea level. The cycle then naturally reversed and
temperatures rose, ice melted, and sea level once again
began to rise.
At present, sea level is rising at a rate of 1.2” per year, which
is much lower than the 4.5” per year that occurred during
the first 10,000 years following the last Ice Age. Although sea
levels are rising at a relatively low rate, it is predicted that
the rate will grow exponentially in the near future.
Sea level rise is driven by both global and regional forces. At
the global scale, warming temperatures from climate change
and greenhouse gases are causing ocean water to expand,
raising sea level in some areas. This same warming causes
ice sheets and glaciers to melt, releasing water back to the
ocean.
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Regionally, storm surges and ocean currents cause local sea
level rise. Erosion along the coast, movement of tectonic
plates, and urban water systems, like groundwater, runoff,
and reservoirs, have more local impacts on sea level rise.
In Santa Monica, climate change models predict sea levels to
rise between 16.7” and 65.5” by the end of the century.
Potential consequences of this sea level rise are more
frequent coastal flooding, saltwater intrusion into
freshwater aquifers, accelerated coastal erosion, beach loss,
cliff failures, beach access lost, and high cost damages.
Regional AdaptLA: Coastal Modeling
The Ocean Protection Council, Coastal Commission, and Coastal Conservancy are funding the
development of a comprehensive climate change model for the LA region’s coastline. The grant is led by
the City of Santa Monica on behalf of 11 coastal jurisdictions. USC Sea Grant, a participant in this
workshop, is leading the outreach for the AdaptLA project.
The coastal model will provide local jurisdictions with the best available scientific models and tools to
guide local policies related to sea level rise and climate change. When complete, the model will combine
CoSMoS, the Coastal Storms Modeling System that assesses the impact of future, large-scale coastal
storms, with models on beach and shoreline changes. The combined model will provide a more accurate
prediction of the impacts of sea level rise, taking into account not just coastal storms, but also shoreline
change, tides, wind, coastal erosion, and the physical characteristics of the beaches.
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Adaptation Strategies
Local jurisdictions use the coastal models to assess the impact of sea level rise on coastal infrastructure.
Based on the level of severity and frequency of coastal hazard events, different adaptation strategies are
taken. These adaptation strategies can be grouped into four larger buckets: ‘Do Nothing’, ‘Retreat’,
‘Accommodate’, and ‘Protect’.
Retreat requires the intervention of local jurisdictions to
limit use of or acquire at-risk properties. This is the most
extreme form of adaptation, and is generally used under
high sea level rise impact scenarios. Retreat options for
properties threatened by coastal flooding or erosion are:
easements, acquisitions, phased relocation, or purchase
with lease back.
Accommodation tactics are used when property owners
decide to stay put in a coastal hazard zone. Accommodation
strategies are used when coastal hazards are at a moderate
level. These strategies are expensive, and require homes to
physically adapt to the local environment. Some strategies
are: elevation, setbacks, and moveable foundations.
Protection measures are used to keep the coastal hazards
at bay. These measures help to reduce the impact of sea
level rise and climate change by holding back the water
with seawalls, or diminishing the strength of waves with
sediment management. These measures can be relatively
inexpensive, but are only effective for low to moderate
estimates of sea level rise. These measures can be broken
down into ‘green’, or more natural measures, and ‘gray’, or
manmade structures. Green: sediment management,
beach nourishment, cobble nourishment. Gray: seawalls
and revetments, breakwaters, jetties, artificial reefs, and
perched beaches.
Policies can be established to promote adaptation to sea
level rise. Building limits in hazard zones will prevent
overinvestment in properties located in at-risk areas, for
example. Public education is a simple measure that can be
promoted through policy and can go a long way in changing
public behavior and attitudes towards climate change and
sea level rise.
It is important to understand that these groups of
adaptation strategies are triggered by certain levels of sea
level rise, and that all measures will be required once a certain threshold is met. The current state of
climate change allows cities to rely solely on protection measures, but future projections show that
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cities will eventually need to implement the more drastic accommodation and retreat measures. At
around two feet of sea level rise, which will be seen by 2050, accommodation and retreat will be
necessary to protect roadways, structures, and the shoreline. These figures are generalized for the
entire coast, and not specific to Santa Monica. More specific standards for adaptation will be released in
the Climate Action and Adaptation Plan.
Adapting to sea level rise and climate change can be expensive, but there are several financial vehicles
available to raise revenue to implement some of these costly adaptation strategies. Transient
Occupancy Taxes, which is currently 17% in Santa Monica, can be used to fund adaptation projects.
Some other examples are sales tax increases, infrastructure rate payer increases, private development
fees for those encroaching on public access and coastal processes, and Green Infrastructure Bonds, like
Santa Monica’s Measure V.
*The following slides of the presentation were not shown due to time constraints, but are provided as additional
information.
Regional AdaptLA: Vulnerability Study
Once the CoSMoS model is complete, AdaptLA will then be able to assess the social, physical, and
economic vulnerability of the regional. The plan will document all vulnerable populations, build regional
strategies, and promote an investment in beaches, our best defense against sea level rise.
The preliminary AdaptLA coastal model can be viewed here at http://data.prbo.org/apps/ocof/. This
model is not as comprehensive as the future CoSMoS 3.0 model, which predicts sea level rise based on
multiple factors and scenarios.
Urban Tides Initiative
The Urban Tides Initiative allows local community members to go out and collect data on flood risks in
southern California. The project encourages locals to take photos of high tides or storm events to help
ground truth and calibrate the scientific model predictions. This is done by comparing the collected
images and comparing them to the model. The project also builds awareness and helps to educate the
community on the risks and processes of sea level rise. Find out more about The Urban Tides Initiative
here http://dornsife.usc.edu/uscseagrant/urban-tides-initiative/.
Other interactive activities are also being used to engage the
local community. For example, Owlized launched a sea level
rise viewer in Marin County, which allowed the community to
see the coast with future projections of sea level rise. The
viewer allows participants to peer into the familiar binoculars
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and see a digital reproduction of their current view, but with several different scenarios of sea level rise.
At the night of the event, USC Sea Grant brought a similar virtual reality product that uses a cell phone.
Regional Actions
Santa Monica is not alone in its efforts to update its Local Coastal Program. The City of Los Angeles is
updating the Venice Area Local Coastal Program, just to the south of Santa Monica. Hermosa Beach is
also in the process of writing its Local Coastal Program along with an update to its General Plan. Also in
the works is the Los Angeles Regional Collaborative for Climate Action and Sustainability (LARC), which is
a framework for climate action for the greater Los Angeles region. Each jurisdiction faces its own set of
problems, so Santa Monica can learn from the efforts of other cities.
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Station Summaries
The following summarizes the four stations and comments received at the stations or on individual
comment cards that relate to the station subject.
Thinking about Climate Change and Sea Level Rise
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Private property will be flooded;
CO2 increases from congestion;
Loss of surf spots;
The Santa Monica Pier;
Saltwater intrusion into freshwater;
The Santa Monica Bay’s ecosystem,
and the impact of water quality and
beach erosion on wildlife.
Reduced sand and beach area for
recreation;
Development preventing an expansion
of sandy beaches eastward as sea level
rise erodes the western edges of the
beach;
Sewage failures into the Bay;
Storm and flood emergency services
should be improved to help residents
mitigate and adapt.
Concern over the stability of our
beaches:
o Beaches are relatively stable
due to the width, from
previous dredging and the
jetties.
o The future of beaches will
become more clear with the
TerraCosta beach retreat
model.
How can the City ensure that the
beaches are maintained?
o Assess the sediment trap in
Malibu;
o Assess the debris basins that
protect from mud slides, but
prevent sediment from being
released into the ocean.
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Protecting the Coastal Treasures of Santa Monica
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Expand public access
options with modernized
access walkways. Current
underground tunnels flood;
Improve and enhance the
wetlands and natural
habitats along the coast;
Protect the Pier: aquarium
and fishing deck;
Flooding of the 1550 Lot
adjacent to the Pier and the
beach bike path just south
of the Pier;
Protect the skate park and
boardwalk in Venice.
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Coastal Hazards and Planning for the Future
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Do not use buy/lease provisions as
a retreat strategy, since developers
will rig the pricing;
Require flood insurance with a
spending cut off when a property
repeatedly floods;
Require buildings in the flood zone
to build structures that will
withstand 50 to 100 years of sea
level rise;
Require private property near
erosion areas to transition to public
property as sea level rise and
erosion worsens;
Tax private development in hazard
areas for development of wetlands
and other protective strategies;
Plan for a non-car transportation
option along PCH, like a monorail;
Offer free home inspections to
inform owners of prevention and
adaptation measures;
The LCP should focus more on
resident’s safety rather than
tourism.
How will the Pier be protected from
sea level rise in the future?
o The City has ongoing
projects to improve Pier
stability, like the recent
pilings and structure
improvement.
City Planners must do more to
address climate change and CO2
emissions.
The City should address the impact
of earthquakes, and prepare
emergency plans for a major event.
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Visualizing Sea Level Rise
This station was hosted by the USC Sea
Grant to discuss the preliminary results of
CoSMoS and the Urban Tides Initiative.
The Urban Tides Initiative allows the
community to submit photographs of high
tide and storm events along the coast.
These images are submitted to scientists
that are modeling sea level rise in
California, and allows them to confirm the
projections of the model.
To learn more about how you can get
involved with the Urban Tides Initiative,
visit:
http://dornsife.usc.edu/uscseagrant/urba
n-tides-initiative/
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