Download Mangrove ecosystem under climate change conditions

PRoACC
Research proposal
Functions and services of mangrove ecosystem
under climate change conditions:
a case study in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam
Mentor:
Dr. Erik de Ruyter van Steveninck
UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft, Netherlands
Researcher:
Ms. Nguyen Thi Kim Cuc
Water Resources University, Hanoi, Vietnam
May 2010
Table of contents
1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 1
1.1. Project title............................................................................................................................. 1
1.2. Acronym ................................................................................................................................ 1
1.3. Location of the research ........................................................................................................ 1
1.4. Participating partners (other than UNESCO-IHE): ............................................................... 1
1.5. Project Idea and Concept ....................................................................................................... 2
Description of the research project ......................................................................................... 4
1.6. Rationale and background ..................................................................................................... 4
1.7. Problem statement & research questions .............................................................................. 5
1.8. Overall & specific objectives................................................................................................. 5
1.9. Research methodology and implementation .......................................................................... 6
1.9. Anticipated results & deliverables ......................................................................................... 8
1.10. Role of linked MSc and PhD studies ................................................................................... 8
1.11. Dissemination & outreach ................................................................................................... 8
1.12. Integration with other PROACC studies ............................................................................. 8
1.13. Link with other on-going UNESCO-IHE and/or partner initiatives and/or activities ........ 9
1.14. Schedule of activities ........................................................................................................... 9
2. Project management............................................................................................................ 9
2.1. Management arrangements .................................................................................................... 9
2.2. Monitoring & evaluation ....................................................................................................... 9
2.3. Budget.................................................................................................................................. 10
Annex A: Logical Framework .............................................................................................. 11
References .............................................................................................................................. 12
1. Introduction
1.1. Project title
Functions and services of mangrove ecosystem under climate change conditions: a
case study in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam
1.2. Acronym [max. 25 characters]
1.3. Location of the research [region and/or country]
The study will take place in coastal area of Ben Tre Province in the Mekong Delta,
Vietnam (Figure 1).
Study area
Figure 1. Map of study area
1.4. Participating partners (other than UNESCO-IHE):
Partner 1:
Acronym:
Address:
Type of organization:
Water Resources University
WRU
175 Tay Son, Dong Da, Hanoi, Vietnam
University
Partner 2:
Mangrove Ecosystem Research Division,
Center for Natural Resources and Environmental Studies,
Vietnam National University, Viet Nam
MERD/CRES/VNU
58 Ngo Thinh Hao 1, Ton Duc Thang, Hanoi, Vietnam
Research Centre
Acronym:
Address:
Type of organization:
1
1.5. Project Idea and Concept
(Describe in a concise paragraph the main research question, the main hypothesis and the
conceptual approach of the proposed project) [max. 500 words]
Mangroves are an ecosystem dominated by a diverse yet small group of tropical tree
species that have by parallel evolution developed special physiological and morphological
adaptations to grow in intertidal conditions (Lugo and Snedaker, 1974; Chapman, 1976). The
forests are known to be highly productive ecosystems with the capacity to efficiently trap
suspended material from the water column. This is because their dense vegetation tends to
promote sedimentation (Furukawa and Wolanski, 1996; Furukawa et al., 1997; Kristensen et
al., 2008). As a consequence mangrove development over geological time can be
reconstructed from the fragmented sedimentary records of their own deposits. Being a wet
environment, anaerobic conditions of mangrove sediment can allow the long-term
preservation of these records. Because of the regular tidal flooding and draining in many
mangrove forests, the material exchange with adjacent water can be very efficient. Therefore,
mangrove forests are recognized as an important wetland for being essential habitat for fauna
communities such as fishes, crabs, shrimps, etc. and organic carbon storage. For centuries,
mangroves have contributed significantly to the socio-economic lives of coastal dwellers.
Mangroves have been traditionally exploited as building materials, charcoal, firewood,
tannin, food, bird feathers, honey, herbal medicines, and many other forest products (Hong
& San, 1993).
Most ecosystems provide a multitude of functions and many aspects need to be
considered (Figure 2). In this study, the concept of ecosystem functions and services are the
central element. The first step in the analysis involves the identification of the ecological
internal and external factors that affect the ecosystem structure and processes. The next step
is working on the translation of ecological complexity (structures and processes) into a more
limited number of ecosystem functions (Figure 2). These functions, in turn, provide the
goods and services that are valued by humans. At the first period, the idea of evaluate
mangrove ecosystem will be considered. If it is possible, the goods and services of the
mangroves will be evaluated.
In the ecological literature, the term “ecosystem function” has been subject to
various, and sometimes contradictory, interpretations. Sometimes, the concept is used to
describe the internal functioning of the ecosystem (e.g. maintenance of energy fluxes,
nutrient (re)cycling, food-web interactions), and sometimes it relates to the benefits derived
by humans from the properties and processes of ecosystems (e.g. food production and waste
treatment). In this research, ecosystem functions are defined as “the capacity of natural
processes and components to provide goods and services that satisfy human needs, directly
or indirectly” (de Groot, 1992). Mangrove ecosystem functions will be grouped into five
primary categories* (based on de Groot, 1992; de Groot et al., 2002, de Groot, 2006).
*
(1)Regulation functions: This group of functions relates to the capacity of the ecosystems to regulate essential
ecological processes and life support systems through hydrological, biogeochemical cycles and other
2
Internal
External
Factors
Planning &
Management
Ecological Values
Based on ecological
sustainability
Ecosystem
Structure
&
Processes
Ecosystem
Ecosystem
Functions
1. Production
2. Regulation
3. Habitat
4. Information
5. Carriers
Decision
Making
Goods
&
Services
Socio-cultural
values
Based on equity
and cultural
perceptions
Economic Values
Based on efficiency
and costeffectiveness
(incl. Policy
Analysis,
Scenario dev.
Inst. and
governance
aspects)
Trade-off
Analysis:
-CBA, MCA
-Particip.
workshops
Stakeholder
Involvement
Figure 2. Role of function-analysis and valuation (after de Groot, 1992; de Groot et al., 2002,
de Groot, 2006).
biospheric processes. Regulation functions maintain a “healthy” ecosystem at different scale levels and, at the
biosphere level, provide and maintain the conditions for life on Earth. In many ways, these regulation functions
provide the necessary pre-conditions for all other functions.
(2) Habitat functions: Natural ecosystems provide refuge and reproduction-habitat to wild plants and animals
and thereby contribute to the (in situ) conservation of biological and genetic diversity and evolutionary
processes. As the term implies, habitat functions relate to the spatial conditions needed to maintain biotic (and
genetic) diversity and evolutionary processes. The availability, or condition, of this function is based on the
physical aspects of the ecological niche within the biosphere. These requirements differ for different species
groups, but can be described in terms of the carrying capacity and spatial needs (minimum critical ecosystem
size) of the natural ecosystems which provide them.
(3) Production functions: Photosynthesis and nutrient uptake by autotrophy converts energy, carbon dioxide,
water and nutrients into a wide variety of carbohydrate structures, which are then used by secondary producers
to create an even larger variety of living biomass. This biomass provides many resources for human use,
ranging from food and raw materials (fiber, timber, etc.) to energy resources and genetic material.
(4) Information functions: Because most of human evolution took place within the context of undomesticated
habitat, natural ecosystems provide an essential ‘reference function’ and contribute to the maintenance of
human health by providing opportunities for reflection, spiritual enrichment, cognitive development, recreation and aesthetic experience.
(5) Carrier functions: Most human activities (e.g. cultivation, habitation, transportation) require space and a
suitable substrate (soil) or medium (water, air) to support the associated infrastructure. The use of carrier
functions usually involves permanent conversion of the original ecosystem.
3
Once the functions of an ecosystem are known, the nature and magnitude of value to
human society can be analyzed and assessed through the goods and services provided by the
functional aspects of the ecosystem.
Climate change components that affect mangrove ecosystems include change in sea
level, hydrology (tidal and fresh water flows within mangroves), high water events, storms,
precipitation, temperature, atmospheric CO2 concentration, ocean circulation patterns, health
and functionally linked neighboring ecosystems, as well as human responses to climate
change. The changes of those factors threaten mangroves, causing a reduction in area and
health. This in turn will increase the threat to human safety due to the loss of protection from
coastal hazards such as erosion, flooding, storm waves and surges and tsunami (Danielsen et
al, 2005; Kathiresan and Rajendran, 2005, Dahdouh-Guebas et al., 2005, 2006).
In order to adapt and mitigate the effects of climate change, especially for the coastal
communities, it is necessary to estimate function and services of mangrove ecosystems. This
research study is intended to estimate functions of mangrove ecosystems through
understanding factors and their interactions that influence mangrove status and investigate
the complex linkages between the functions inside the mangrove ecosystem and the services
which provide to the people and the drivers that affect the functions and services.
Description of the research project
1.6. Rationale and background [max. 500 words]
Pay at least attention to the following:
i.Rationale for and relevance of the project
ii.Development relevance
iii.Scientific quality and innovation
Mangroves perform valued regional and site-specific functions (Lewis, 1992; Ewel et
al., 1998; Walters et al. 2008). As a special wetland ecosystem, mangroves present very
important functions and provide services to human society and their surrounding
environments. Function is the capacity of natural process and components to provide goods
and services that satisfy human needs, directly or indirectly (De Groot et al. 2002). Accurate
predictions of changes to coastal ecosystem functions, including responses to projected sealevel rise and other climate change components, enable site planning with sufficient lead
time to minimize and offset anticipated losses (Titus, 1991; Mullane and Suzuli, 1997;
Hansen and Biringer, 2003; Gilman et al., 2008).
The well-being of an ecosystem is determined by physio-chemical and biological
parameters. Identification of key factors that serve as indicators of ecosystem function can
enable one to predict the effects of ecological stress. Through investigation the factors,
complex linkages between them, or ecological processes, and functions inside the ecosystem
we will try to understand the effect of projected climate change scenarios on mangrove
ecosystem, including assessing mangrove resistance and resilience to relative sea level rise.
Resistance is used to refer to a mangrove’s ability to keep pace with rising sea-level without
alteration to its functions, processes and structure (Odum, 1989; Bennett et al., 2005).
4
Resilience refers to the capacity of a mangrove to naturally mitigate landward in response to
rising sea-level, such that the mangrove ecosystem absorbs and reorganizes from the effects
of the stress to maintain its functions, processes and structure (Carpenter et al., 2001;
Nystrom and Folke, 2001). Then adaptation options to avoid and minimize adverse out
comes from predicted mangrove responses to climate change scenarios will be identified.
Mangrove ecosystems are considered vulnerable to climate change as coastal
development limits the ecosystem service and adaptations important to their survival.
Although they appear rather simple in terms of species diversity, their ecology is complex
due to interaction geophysical forces of tides, surface runoff, river and groundwater
discharge, wave, sediment, nutrients and saltwater. This research will develop a
comprehensive framework for science-based management practices.
1.7. Problem statement [max. 250 words] & research questions
In the near futures, global climate change has been predicted. Coastal areas will be
very firsts areas facing with the impacts of climate change (sea-level rise, extreme events
etc.). Like other coastal lines, urgent action is necessary to prevent damage caused by
climate change in the Mekong Delta. Understanding the functions and services of mangrove
ecosystem of the Mekong Delta is one of the critical needs.
The major research questions of this study are as follows:
1. What are the factors, indicators, and the interactions between the indicators
(processes) that influence the mangrove ecosystem structures?
2. How do mangrove ecosystem processes affect its functions and how do functions link
to services?
3. What are the probable status of mangrove ecosystems at Mekong Delta and their
probable functions and services under certain projected climate change scenarios?
(How are functions affected by climate change – using the indicators)
1.8. Overall & specific objectives [max. 250 words]
(A logical framework of the objectives, research questions and activities of the project is
requested in Annex A)
Overall objective
The overall objective of this research is to evaluate the functions of mangrove ecosystems
and their roles in reducing the impacts of climate change in coastal communities and to
develop a comprehensive framework for sustainable management practices and how they are
affected by climate change.
Specific objectives: The specific objectives of this study are as follows:


To develop key factors, indicators, and the ecological processes that affect the wellbeing of mangrove ecosystem at Mekong River Delta (Research question 1 will be
answered by achieving this objective).
To estimate the functions and services of mangrove ecosystem at coastal of Mekong
River Delta (Research question 2 will be answered by fulfilling this objective).
5

To understand the dynamic of mangrove ecosystem and to provide ecological
forecasting capabilities under different projected climate change scenarios (This
objective will address research question 3).
1.9. Research methodology and implementation
iv.Research approach & activities [max. 500 words]:
Firstly, we will develop a conceptual model that describes a hypothetical representation of
critical state variables and processes. The factors that influence status of mangrove forest
will be divided into three groups. The first groups will be regulators (non-resources) factors
such as climatic and landform characteristics. Light, nutrients, etc. will be grouped in the
resource factor group, the second group. The third group will include hydrological factors.
The relationships between the factors in the three groups will be determined both
literature values and empirical studies, and mathematical formulation of the processes
will be constructed for each functional group. For example, a logistic growth equation that
predicts, under optimal conditions, an expected increment in biomass over time of a group
within an area. Each functional group has an optimal productivity that occurs within a
specific range for each of the environmental factors (light, temperature, salinity, nutrients,
hydrology regimes etc.), and the simulated production is depreciated from the optimal value
when any of the environmental factors varies outside this optimal range. This depreciation is
accomplished by multiplying the maximum productivity by a series of scalars that represent
each factor.
Structure of mangrove ecosystem will represent the characteristic of species such as
composition, density, zonation, diversity etc., productivity and regeneration and succession
trajectory. In this part we will try to investigate the consequence of ecological characteristic
to ecosystem functions. The functions will be considered are hydrological, biogeochemical
and ecological functions.
The simulation will be built up step-by-step, beginning with optimal growth for a single
functional group, then the effects of less than optimal conditions for growth. The aim is to
predict and estimate the probable status, processes and functions of mangrove ecosystem
under the effects of climate change. We then will identify adaptation options to avoid and
minimize adverse outcomes from predicted mangroves responses to projected climate
change scenarios.
The relationships between the factors in the three groups will be determined both literature
values and empirical studies.
In the field, current status of mangrove forest at coastal of Mekong River Mouth will be
studied. The data includes fauna and flora compositions, structure, distribution, production,
below and above ground biomass and its relations, etc.
The study will be implemented through the following steps (Figure 3).
6
STEP 1: Factor /indicators and
interaction processes
identification

Literature review

Field survey
STEP 2: Functional analysis

Literature review

Field survey

Conceptual framework
STEP 3: Model construction

Literature review

Field survey

Variable identification and
definition

Model construction
STEP 4: Model compilation

Pressure-state-impact-response
check and update

Model compilation

Sensitively analysis
STEP 5: Scenarios development
and analysis

Scenario development

Scenario analysis

Reporting
Specific objective 1 achieved
(Factors and processes identification)
Specific objective 2 achieved
(Processes-functions analysis)
Specific objective 2 and 3 achieved
(Model construction)
Specific objective 2 and 3 achieved
(Linkages between factors <=>
status<=>functions<=>services analysis)
Specific objective 3 achieved
(Scenarios development => future
prediction)
Figure 3. Different research activities
7
1.9. Anticipated results & deliverables [max. 250 words]
Reports: Two papers and 2 reports will be written with the following titles, respectively:
 Effect of influence indicators on the status of mangrove forest along the coastal area of
the Mekong Delta (January, 2011)
 Functionality of restored mangroves in the Mekong Delta (July, 2011)
 Progress report (April, 2011)
 Final report (September, 2011)
(Provide an estimate of the intended output)
2010
1
2
3
4
5
6
Research reports
Articles for peer reviewed journals
Contribution to MSc theses, if applicable
Contribution to PhD theses, if applicable
Other Academic Publications, specify type:
Other Professional publications / products:
2011
2
2
1-2
1.10. Role of linked MSc and PhD studies [max. 300 words]
There is a MSc. student in IHE, she wants to do her research on estimate the services of
mangrove ecosystems. She may choose study site in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam, or in her
country, Kenya. If she chooses Vietnam, it is so great, we can do together to full fill the
functions and services picture of mangroves in the Mekong Delta. Otherwise, the founded
factors which affect structure and processes of mangroves of my research will be used for
her research to evaluate the services of mangrove ecosystem in her study areas. Then we can
see the different results of the two areas.
(If it is applicable)
1.11. Dissemination & outreach [max. 250 words]


Through the research, model for assessing functions/services of mangrove ecosystems
will be built and tested. The constructed model can be used to assess the values of
current mangroves for management system of the local authorities and communities
participation in order to optimum use of mangroves resources.
Global sea-level rise and other climate change components are the more certain
outcomes of global warming that are the substantial cause of recent and predicted future
reductions in the area and health of mangroves and other tidal wetlands. The model can
be used to predict the ability of mangroves in term of responses to the projected climate
change scenarios.
1.12. Integration with other PROACC studies [max. 250 words]


If look from head water to down stream, mangroves are located at the end, the
hydrological characteristics of the Mekong River such as water quality, quantity,
drought and flood, nutrients, sediment, etc. will has influences on mangrove ecosystem.
The research will strongly collaborate with PRoACC studies which dealing with those
issues.
This research will also contribute to the study on vulnerabilities management, water
pollutant treatment in order to avoid overemphasized plan for dealing with uncertainty.
8
1.13. Link with other on-going UNESCO-IHE and/or partner initiatives and/or
activities [250 words]

Due to the limitation of time (18 months) all the available data and references of the
other studies will be optimized.
1.14. Schedule of activities
Activities
Activity 1: Literature review
Activity 2: Field visit
Activity 3: Conceptual framework
Activity 4: Variable identification and
definition
Activity 5: Model construction
Activity 6: Model complication
Activity 7: Scenario development and
analysis
Activity 8: Reporting
Year 1
Year 2
2. Project management
2.1. Management arrangements [max. 200 words]
Describe regular communication and project progress reporting arrangements
Supervisor and post-doc:
 Research proposal will be completed at the end of May, 2010.
 After back to home country, post-doc and the supervisor will keep discuss often by
email at least one or twice a month.
 Supervisor and post-doc visit study site, 2010/2011
 After the model is constructed, post-doc will meet supervisor for completing the model
(IHE, April, 2011)
 Climate change scenarios development and analysis with supervisor consultancy.
2.2. Monitoring & evaluation [max. 200 words]
The process of monitoring and evaluation of the study will base on
 Middle term report (April, 2011)
 Two papers
 Final report (September, 2011)
9
2.3. Budget
The total estimated budget of the research is 12,455.00 EUR (EURO Twelve thousand four
hundred fifty five) as the following detail.
No.
1
1.1.
1.2.
1.3.
1.4.
1.5.
1.6.
Items
Collecting data and information
Travel cost
Car rental (for field trip)
Accommodation
Assistants
Measuring equipment (Measure, scale, pH…)
Payment for data and information
Hydrological information
Climatic and topographic data
Land covered map
Saline map
Sedimentation
Nutrient flux
Fauna diversity
2
3
4
5
Sampling and analysis
Conference attending
Laptop
Software
Total
Quantity
4
6,000
60
60
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Air ticket
km
night
day
set
set
set
set
set
set
set
1 laptop
1 software
Unit
Total
(EUR) (EUR)
8,800
200
800
0.4
2,400
25
1,500
25
1,500
500
2,100
300
300
300
300
300
300
300
1000
955
300
300
300
300
300
300
300
1,000
700
1,000
955
12,455
10
Annex A: Logical Framework
Project Description
Overall objective:
To evaluate the functions/services
of mangrove ecosystems and its
roles in significantly reducing the
impacts of climate change in coastal
communities for developing a
comprehensive framework for
sustainable management practices
and how they are affected by
climate change.
Specific objective 1:
To identify key factors, indicators,
and the ecological processes that
affect the well-being of mangrove
ecosystem at Mekong River Delta
Specific objective 2:
To estimate the functions/services
of mangrove ecosystem at coastal
of Mekong River Delta
Specific objective 3:
To understand the dynamic of
mangrove ecosystem and to provide
ecological forecasting capabilities
under different projected climate
change scenarios
Main activities, results &
deliverables
Performance
Indicators
8 listed activities
Results: 2 papers and 2 reports
Papers and
reports
Activity 1: Literature review
Activity 2: Field visit
Activity 3: Conceptual framework
Activity 4: Variable identification
and definition
Activity 8: Reporting
Progress report
Activity 5: Model construction
Activity 6: Model complication
Activity 8: Reporting
First paper
Result: first paper (January, 2011)
Activity 7: Scenario development Second paper,
and analysis
Final report
Activity 8: Reporting
Result: Second paper (July, 2011)
11
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