Download Climate Change modeling

Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Climate Change Training for Water Professionals
Climate Change Modeling:
An overview
A.K.M. Saiful Islam
Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Presentation outline
 Overview of climatic system
 Green house effect
 Global warming
 Ice melt and rise of sea level
 Climate model and predictions
 General Climate Model - GCM
 Regional Climate Model – RCM
 Climate modeling at BUET
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3D models
Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Climate Systems
• The complicated system consisting of various components,
including the dynamics and composition of the
atmosphere, the ocean, the ice and snow cover, the land
surface and its features, the many mutual interactions
between them, and the large variety of physical, chemical
and biological processes taking place in and among these
components.
• Climate refers to the state of the climate system as a whole,
including a statistical description of its variations.
 Atmosphere
– 78% nitrogen, 21% oxygen, and 1% other gases.
– Carbon dioxide accounts for just 0.03 - 0.04%.
– Water vapor 0 to 2%
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Components of Climate System
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Green house gases
 CO2 and some other minor gases
1. Absorb some of the thermal radiation leaving the surface of the
earth.
2. Emit radiation from much higher and colder levels out to space.
 These radiatively active gases are known as greenhouse
gases.
– They act as a partial blanket for the thermal radiation from the
surface which enables it to be substantially warmer than it would
otherwise be, analogous to the effect of a greenhouse.
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Green house effect
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Green house effect
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Human induced climate variation
 Perturbations of the atmospheric composition – the
enhanced greenhouse effect
 Effect of aerosols:
– direct effect (scattering of incoming solar radiation)
– indirect effect (affecting the radiative properties of clouds)
 Land-use change (agriculture, deforestation,
reforestation, afforestation, urbanisation, traffic, …)
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Increasing trends of CO2
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Human induced changes of green
house gases
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Sector wise Green house gas emission
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Country wise emission of CO2
 Per capita emissions of CO2 is less than 0.2 ton annually
in Bangladesh, compared to 1.6 tons in the developing
countries
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Global temperature and Greenhouse
gases
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Temperature variation past 1,000 years
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Increase of Temperature past 140 year
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Trends of increase of Temperature
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Surface Air temperature (1960-1990)
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Antarctic Ozone hole
 The Antarctic ozone hole forms in the southern
hemisphere’s spring (Sept.-Nov) following the
bitterly cold and dark Antarctic winter when
stratospheric ice clouds promote production of
chemically active chlorine and bromine.
 This, in turn, leads to ozone destruction when
sunlight returns in the Antarctic spring.
 The serious thinning of the stratospheric ozone layer is
caused by anthropogenic emissions of ozone depleting
substances, such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFC) and
halons. The atmospheric concentrations of these
compounds have increased during the last several
decades as a consequence of human activity.
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Ice melting
 Images from gathered from the Defense Meteorological
Satellite Program of NASA show the minimum Arctic sea
ice concentration 1979 (left) and 2003 (right).
1979
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2003
Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Cracks in Ice bars
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Sea Level Rise (1980-2000)
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Climate Models
 Climate models are computer-based simulations that use
mathematical formulas to re-create the chemical and
physical processes that drive Earth’s climate.
 To “run” a model, scientists divide the planet into a 3dimensional grid, apply the basic equations, and evaluate
the results.
 Atmospheric models calculate winds, heat transfer,
radiation, relative humidity, and surface hydrology within
each grid and evaluate interactions with neighboring
points.
 Climate models use quantitative methods to simulate the
interactions of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and
ice.
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Hardware Behind the Climate Model
 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
General Circulation Model (GCM)
 General Circulation Models (GCMs) are a class of
computer-driven models for weather forecasting,
understanding climate and projecting climate change,
where they are commonly called Global Climate Models.
 Three dimensional GCM's discretise the equations for
fluid motion and energy transfer and integrate these
forward in time. They also contain parametrisations for
processes - such as convection - that occur on scales too
small to be resolved directly.
 Atmospheric GCMs (AGCMs) model the atmosphere and
impose sea surface temperatures.
 Coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs (AOGCMs, e.g.
HadCM3, EdGCM, GFDL CM2.X, ARPEGE-Climate)
combine the two models.
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
GCM typical horizontal resolution of between 250 and 600 km, 10 to 20 vertical
layers in the atmosphere and sometimes as many as 30 layers in the oceans.
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Special Report on Emissions
Scenarios (SRES)
 The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)
was a report prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) for the Third Assessment Report
(TAR) in 2001, on future emission scenarios to be used
for driving global circulation models to develop climate
change scenarios.
 It was used to replace the IS92 scenarios used for the
IPCC Second Assessment Report of 1995. The SRES
Scenarios were also used for the Fourth Assessment
Report (AR4) in 2007.
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
SERS Emission Scenarios
 A1 - a future world of very rapid economic growth, global
population that peaks in mid-century and declines
thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more
efficient technologies. Three sub groups: fossil intensive
(A1FI), non-fossil energy sources (A1T), or a balance
across all sources (A1B).
 A2 - A very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme
is that of strengthening regional cultural identities, with an
emphasis on family values and local traditions, high
population growth, and less concern for rapid economic
development.
 B1 - a convergent world with the same global population,
that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, as in
the A1 storyline.
 B2 - a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions
to economic, social and environmental sustainability.
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Non SRES Scenarios

Non-SRES Scenario: PICTL

Experiments run with constant pre-industrial levels of greenhouse gasses.

Non-SRES Scenario: 20C3M

Experiments run with greenhouse gasses increasing as observed through the
20th century.

Non-SRES Scenario: COMMIT

An idealised scenario in which the atmospheric burdens of long-lived
greenhouse gasses are held fixed at AD2000 levels.

Non-SRES Scenario: 1PTO2X (1% to double)

Experiments run with greenhouse gasses increasing from pre-industrial levels
at a rate of 1% per year until the concentration has doubled and held
constant thereafter.

Non-SRES Scenario: 1PTO4X (1% to quadruple)

Experiments run with greenhouse gasses increasing from pre-industrial levels
at a rate of 1% per year until the concentration has quadrupled and held
constant thereafter.
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
GCM output described in the 2007 IPCC
Fourth Assessment Report
(SRES scenarios), multilayer mean
Models
Scenarios
Variables
BCC:CM1
BCCR:BCM2
CCCMA:CGCM3_1-T47
CCCMA:CGCM3_1-T63
CNRM:CM3
CONS:ECHO-G
CSIRO:MK3
GFDL:CM2
GFDL:CM2_1
INM:CM3
IPSL:CM4
LASG:FGOALS-G1_0
MPIM:ECHAM5
MRI:CGCM2_3_2
NASA:GISS-AOM
NASA:GISS-EH
NASA:GISS-ER
NCAR:CCSM3
NCAR:PCM
NIES:MIROC3_2-HI
NIES:MIROC3_2-MED
UKMO:HADCM3
UKMO:HADGEM1
1PTO2X
1PTO4X
20C3M
COMMIT
PICTL
SRA1B
SRA2
SRB1
specific humidity
precipitation flux
air pressure at sea
level
net upward shortwave
flux in air
air temperature
air temperature daily
max
air temperature daily
min
eastward wind
northward wind
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
GCM
 BCC-CM1
– AgencyBeijing Climate Center, National Climate Center, China
Meteorological Administration, No.46, S.Road, Zhongguancun
Str., Beijing 100081, China
 BCCR
– Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Univ. of Bergen,
Norway
 CGCM3
– Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma)
 CNRM-CM3
– Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, Meteo France,
France
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
GCM
 CONS-ECHO-G
– Meteorological Institute of the University of Bonn (Germany),
Institute of KMA (Korea), and Model and Data Group.
 CSIRO, Australia
 INMCM3.0
– Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of
Science, Russia.
 GFDL
– Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA
 NASA-GISS-AOM
– NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA/GISS), USA
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
GCM
 MRI-CGCM2_3_2
– Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency,
Japan
 NCAR-PCM
– National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), NSF (a
primary sponsor), DOE (a primary sponsor), NASA, and NOAA
 Model NIES-MIROC3_2-MED
– CCSR/NIES/FRCGC, Japan
 UKMO-HADCM3
– Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office,
United Kingdom
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Prediction of Global Warming
 Figure shows the distribution of warming during the late
21st century predicted by the HadCM3 climate model.
The average warming predicted by this model is 3.0 °C.
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Predicted Changes of Temperature
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Temperature increase versus SRES
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Predicted Sea Level Rise
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Sea level rise versus SRES
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Regional Climate modeling
 An RCM is a tool to add small-scale detailed information
of future climate change to the large-scale projections of
a GCM. RCMs are full climate models and as such are
physically based and represent most or all of the
processes, interactions and feedbacks between the
climate system components that are represented in
GCMs.
 They take coarse resolution information from a GCM and
then develop temporally and spatially fine-scale
information consistent with this using their higher
resolution representation of the climate system.
 The typical resolution of an RCM is about 50 km in the
horizontal and GCMs are typically 500~300 km
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
RCM - more realistically simulation
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
RCM can simulate cyclones and
hurricanes
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Steps of assessing impact of climate
change
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Climate change modeling in
Bangladesh
 PRECIS regional
climate modeling is
now running in
Climate change study
cell at IWFM,BUET.
 It takes more than 2
months to completely
run an experiment of
30 years.
 Currently running
baseline (1960-1990)
and A1B (1949-2100)
scenarios over the
Bangladesh region.
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Bangladesh region for PRECIS
 Grids: 88 x 88
 Predict up to 3 hourly
 Needs more than 100
GB free space.
 Intel Pentium take one
day to simulate 6
month.
 Uses LBC data from
GCM (e.g. HadCM3)
 Data available for A2,
B2, A1B scenarios.
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Predicting Rainfall
[Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario]
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Predicting Maximum Temperature
[Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario]
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Predicting Minimum Temperature
[Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario]
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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Thank you
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