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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Climate Change Training for Water Professionals Climate Change Modeling: An overview A.K.M. Saiful Islam Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Presentation outline Overview of climatic system Green house effect Global warming Ice melt and rise of sea level Climate model and predictions General Climate Model - GCM Regional Climate Model – RCM Climate modeling at BUET Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET 3D models Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Climate Systems • The complicated system consisting of various components, including the dynamics and composition of the atmosphere, the ocean, the ice and snow cover, the land surface and its features, the many mutual interactions between them, and the large variety of physical, chemical and biological processes taking place in and among these components. • Climate refers to the state of the climate system as a whole, including a statistical description of its variations. Atmosphere – 78% nitrogen, 21% oxygen, and 1% other gases. – Carbon dioxide accounts for just 0.03 - 0.04%. – Water vapor 0 to 2% Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Components of Climate System Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Green house gases CO2 and some other minor gases 1. Absorb some of the thermal radiation leaving the surface of the earth. 2. Emit radiation from much higher and colder levels out to space. These radiatively active gases are known as greenhouse gases. – They act as a partial blanket for the thermal radiation from the surface which enables it to be substantially warmer than it would otherwise be, analogous to the effect of a greenhouse. Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Green house effect Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Green house effect Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Human induced climate variation Perturbations of the atmospheric composition – the enhanced greenhouse effect Effect of aerosols: – direct effect (scattering of incoming solar radiation) – indirect effect (affecting the radiative properties of clouds) Land-use change (agriculture, deforestation, reforestation, afforestation, urbanisation, traffic, …) Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Increasing trends of CO2 Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Human induced changes of green house gases Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Sector wise Green house gas emission Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Country wise emission of CO2 Per capita emissions of CO2 is less than 0.2 ton annually in Bangladesh, compared to 1.6 tons in the developing countries Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Global temperature and Greenhouse gases Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Temperature variation past 1,000 years Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Increase of Temperature past 140 year Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Trends of increase of Temperature Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Surface Air temperature (1960-1990) Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Antarctic Ozone hole The Antarctic ozone hole forms in the southern hemisphere’s spring (Sept.-Nov) following the bitterly cold and dark Antarctic winter when stratospheric ice clouds promote production of chemically active chlorine and bromine. This, in turn, leads to ozone destruction when sunlight returns in the Antarctic spring. The serious thinning of the stratospheric ozone layer is caused by anthropogenic emissions of ozone depleting substances, such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFC) and halons. The atmospheric concentrations of these compounds have increased during the last several decades as a consequence of human activity. Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Ice melting Images from gathered from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program of NASA show the minimum Arctic sea ice concentration 1979 (left) and 2003 (right). 1979 Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET 2003 Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Cracks in Ice bars Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Sea Level Rise (1980-2000) Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Climate Models Climate models are computer-based simulations that use mathematical formulas to re-create the chemical and physical processes that drive Earth’s climate. To “run” a model, scientists divide the planet into a 3dimensional grid, apply the basic equations, and evaluate the results. Atmospheric models calculate winds, heat transfer, radiation, relative humidity, and surface hydrology within each grid and evaluate interactions with neighboring points. Climate models use quantitative methods to simulate the interactions of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and ice. Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Hardware Behind the Climate Model Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology General Circulation Model (GCM) General Circulation Models (GCMs) are a class of computer-driven models for weather forecasting, understanding climate and projecting climate change, where they are commonly called Global Climate Models. Three dimensional GCM's discretise the equations for fluid motion and energy transfer and integrate these forward in time. They also contain parametrisations for processes - such as convection - that occur on scales too small to be resolved directly. Atmospheric GCMs (AGCMs) model the atmosphere and impose sea surface temperatures. Coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs (AOGCMs, e.g. HadCM3, EdGCM, GFDL CM2.X, ARPEGE-Climate) combine the two models. Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology GCM typical horizontal resolution of between 250 and 600 km, 10 to 20 vertical layers in the atmosphere and sometimes as many as 30 layers in the oceans. Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) was a report prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the Third Assessment Report (TAR) in 2001, on future emission scenarios to be used for driving global circulation models to develop climate change scenarios. It was used to replace the IS92 scenarios used for the IPCC Second Assessment Report of 1995. The SRES Scenarios were also used for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) in 2007. Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology SERS Emission Scenarios A1 - a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Three sub groups: fossil intensive (A1FI), non-fossil energy sources (A1T), or a balance across all sources (A1B). A2 - A very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is that of strengthening regional cultural identities, with an emphasis on family values and local traditions, high population growth, and less concern for rapid economic development. B1 - a convergent world with the same global population, that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, as in the A1 storyline. B2 - a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability. Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Non SRES Scenarios Non-SRES Scenario: PICTL Experiments run with constant pre-industrial levels of greenhouse gasses. Non-SRES Scenario: 20C3M Experiments run with greenhouse gasses increasing as observed through the 20th century. Non-SRES Scenario: COMMIT An idealised scenario in which the atmospheric burdens of long-lived greenhouse gasses are held fixed at AD2000 levels. Non-SRES Scenario: 1PTO2X (1% to double) Experiments run with greenhouse gasses increasing from pre-industrial levels at a rate of 1% per year until the concentration has doubled and held constant thereafter. Non-SRES Scenario: 1PTO4X (1% to quadruple) Experiments run with greenhouse gasses increasing from pre-industrial levels at a rate of 1% per year until the concentration has quadrupled and held constant thereafter. Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology GCM output described in the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (SRES scenarios), multilayer mean Models Scenarios Variables BCC:CM1 BCCR:BCM2 CCCMA:CGCM3_1-T47 CCCMA:CGCM3_1-T63 CNRM:CM3 CONS:ECHO-G CSIRO:MK3 GFDL:CM2 GFDL:CM2_1 INM:CM3 IPSL:CM4 LASG:FGOALS-G1_0 MPIM:ECHAM5 MRI:CGCM2_3_2 NASA:GISS-AOM NASA:GISS-EH NASA:GISS-ER NCAR:CCSM3 NCAR:PCM NIES:MIROC3_2-HI NIES:MIROC3_2-MED UKMO:HADCM3 UKMO:HADGEM1 1PTO2X 1PTO4X 20C3M COMMIT PICTL SRA1B SRA2 SRB1 specific humidity precipitation flux air pressure at sea level net upward shortwave flux in air air temperature air temperature daily max air temperature daily min eastward wind northward wind Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology GCM BCC-CM1 – AgencyBeijing Climate Center, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, No.46, S.Road, Zhongguancun Str., Beijing 100081, China BCCR – Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Univ. of Bergen, Norway CGCM3 – Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) CNRM-CM3 – Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, Meteo France, France Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology GCM CONS-ECHO-G – Meteorological Institute of the University of Bonn (Germany), Institute of KMA (Korea), and Model and Data Group. CSIRO, Australia INMCM3.0 – Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Science, Russia. GFDL – Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA NASA-GISS-AOM – NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA/GISS), USA Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology GCM MRI-CGCM2_3_2 – Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Japan NCAR-PCM – National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), NSF (a primary sponsor), DOE (a primary sponsor), NASA, and NOAA Model NIES-MIROC3_2-MED – CCSR/NIES/FRCGC, Japan UKMO-HADCM3 – Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office, United Kingdom Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Prediction of Global Warming Figure shows the distribution of warming during the late 21st century predicted by the HadCM3 climate model. The average warming predicted by this model is 3.0 °C. Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Predicted Changes of Temperature Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Temperature increase versus SRES Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Predicted Sea Level Rise Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Sea level rise versus SRES Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Regional Climate modeling An RCM is a tool to add small-scale detailed information of future climate change to the large-scale projections of a GCM. RCMs are full climate models and as such are physically based and represent most or all of the processes, interactions and feedbacks between the climate system components that are represented in GCMs. They take coarse resolution information from a GCM and then develop temporally and spatially fine-scale information consistent with this using their higher resolution representation of the climate system. The typical resolution of an RCM is about 50 km in the horizontal and GCMs are typically 500~300 km Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology RCM - more realistically simulation Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology RCM can simulate cyclones and hurricanes Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Steps of assessing impact of climate change Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Climate change modeling in Bangladesh PRECIS regional climate modeling is now running in Climate change study cell at IWFM,BUET. It takes more than 2 months to completely run an experiment of 30 years. Currently running baseline (1960-1990) and A1B (1949-2100) scenarios over the Bangladesh region. Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Bangladesh region for PRECIS Grids: 88 x 88 Predict up to 3 hourly Needs more than 100 GB free space. Intel Pentium take one day to simulate 6 month. Uses LBC data from GCM (e.g. HadCM3) Data available for A2, B2, A1B scenarios. Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Predicting Rainfall [Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario] Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Predicting Maximum Temperature [Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario] Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Predicting Minimum Temperature [Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario] Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Thank you Copy right @ Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET