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Energy policies and management of carbon balance in Estonia Olga Gavrilova, Tiina Randla, Raivo Vilu Tallinn University of Technology Climate change is one of the greatest concerns for the global community Overheating of Earth is a real danger The goal of UNFCCC is ‘stabilization of Greenhouse Gases concentrations in the atmosphere at the level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate change’ The commitments of Kyoto protocol extend this to ‘achieving of emission limitation and reduction, and protection and enhancement of GHG sinks and reservoirs’ Estonia is an Annex B country of Kyoto Protocol, Estonia has an obligation to reduce CO2 emissions 8% by 2008-2012 in comparison with 1990 20 million tons of oil shale was extracted and used in 1990 10-12 million tons of oil shale has been extracted and used in 1994-2003 1 ton of CO2 is emitted per 1 ton of oil shale on burning Estonian oil shale enterprises have the right to sell “hot air” for more than €60 million The price of 1 ton of CO2 quota was yesterday €23 The resources for electricity generation, 2003 Other, 2.2% Wind, 0.0% Hydro, 0.1% Natural gas, 5.0% Shale oil, 0.3% Oil Shale, 92.2% Efficiency of electricity production from oil shale 40 35 35,373 Efficiency of electricity generation 30 TWh 25 14% 20 15 10 5,068 5 0 Oil shale resource consumption Electricity consumption by end-users Energy intensity of the economy, kgoe (kilogram of oil equivalent) per 1000 Euro (at constant prices, 1995=100) 0 Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Rep. Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Turkey UK kg CO2/GDP (2000$) 3.5 3 2.5 0.7 2 0.6 0.5 1.5 0.4 1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 CO2/ GDP CO2 / GDP (PPP) 0 kg CO2/PPP (2000$) CO2 emission per GDP of countries of European Union, 2003 1 0.9 0.8 However, oil shale industry in Estonia is thriving currently Especially after the price of oil barrel exceeded $50 Estonia is the only offshore territory for oil shale industry in the world In this economical and political conditions we are discussing (oil shale) energy policies… Renewable resources of energy in Estonia • • • • • • • • Wood Straw etc non-wooden biomass Biogas Wastes Solar energy Wind energy Water energy (Peat) 5.5-14 TWh/a 2-13 TWh/a max 0.4 TWh/a 0.1-3 TWh/a 2.2 TWh/a 2.7–4 TWh/a 0.4 TWh/a 5.3 TWh/a Current (end-)use of energy in Estonia ~10 TWh/a Future of energy sector in Estonia will depend on the EU and global post-Kyoto policies Carbon accounting in Estonia according to IPCC rules, 2002 Emission / Sequestration CO2, Gg Net emission of greenhouse gases CO2 equivalent 10,938 Total emission of carbon dioxide 8,726 …of carbon dioxide from fuel combustion 16,971 …of carbon dioxide from industrial processes 319 ...total removal of CO2 -8,564 due to changes in forest biomass -5,285 due to changes in other woody biomass stock -2,311 due to CO2 emissions and removals from soil -967.0 The aim of our research to consider land use related Carbon Flow Analysis (CFA) in • Forestry • Agriculture – Arable land; – Husbandry; to compare it with the current carbon flows, which are estimated in Estonian GHG inventory; to evaluate readiness of statistical system of Estonia for introduction of full CFA based on GIS-mapping as a prerequisite of full carbon trade; The land area by different types of land use in Estonia, thousands ha, 2003 CORINE 1:100 000 Basic map 1:10 000 Land Cadastre 1: 2000 ESO Forest 2,093 2,216 2,267 Wetlands 193.7 321.8 267.5 Agricultural land 1,476 1,263 1,345 829 …Arable land 845 1,020 974 545 …Grassland 632 244 371 267 Differences between the Basic map and forest map from Estonian Centre of Forest Protection and Silviculture (CFPS) Forest land on Basic map Forest land on CFPS map Carbon cycle of arable land 1.1.1 1 Crops 1,517 Manure 11 Export / Import Grain, Fruit 2.1 2 Stalks Leaves Roots 563 Stock 1 3 1.1.2 respiration burning 3.1 Waste 6 1,537 Human 65 1,434 Industry 9 Seed 28 3.1 Humus 131 Products Animals 3.3 3.2 6 Residues 93 4 66,800 Stock 2 subsoil 4 5.1 19,600 Calculated CO2 flows according to IPCC rules and our data Emission / Sequestration, Gg CO2 CO2 IPCC This paper Total emission of carbon dioxide 8,726 13,477 - of carbon dioxide from fuel combustion and industrial processes 17,290 17,290 - total removal of CO2 -8,564 -3,813 due to changes in terrestrial biomass -7,596 -14,318 …CO2 sequestration by terrestrial biomass -18,197 -15,600 …CO2 emission from terrestrial biomass (felling) 10,601 719 due to emission from crops residues 563 due to CO2 emission and removals from wetlands -396 10,505 due to CO2 emissions and removals from soil -571 ? A proposal: start CO2 trade also inside the countries and include beside CO2 emission also CO2 sequestration This will give a new perspective to the agriculture Both, forest and arable land could sequester more than 2 tons of carbon per ha per year Carbon accounting and economics Forest land 2300 Arable land 1200 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 400 1988 1500 1983 600 1978 1700 1992 800 1990 1900 1980 1000 ha 1000 1973 1000 ha 2100 The change of forest and arable lands in Estonia during the last 30 years What decisions were behind of these land use changes (annual increase of CO2 sequestration by about 5.4 Gg): economical or (and) ecological? If carbon has monetary value, every decision about land use change should be taken balancing economical (ecological services, including carbon sequestration) and ecological (biodiversity) accounts Carbon Flows Accounting and Economical Mechanisms should function simultaneously • for the control and optimization of the processes leading to local and global ‘enhancement (of) GHG sinks and reservoirs’ and • use of renewable resources (biomass, wastes etc.)