Download Driving forces which are relevant for WB future of

Explorative scenario workshop
"Opportunities for development in the Western Balkans in the context of
Climate Change impacts and Water Scarcity”
Belgrade, Serbia, 24-26 October 2011
Driving forces which are relevant for WB future of water availability:
Regional/global:

imigration, emigrants form countries coming back
Regional/local:

Population change (growth-decline?),
Regional:

Social
migration,
Local:

population distribution, aging, household decline

rural-urban migrations,

unsustainable consumption patterns

Consumption patterns (water consumption),

urbanisation, less farming,
Global:

technologies acceleration process
Regional:

Technological
regional cooperation re tech
National/local:

Technologies for water use in industry,

access to eco-efficient technologies and affordability

innovation (in water sector), using best available
technologies,
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Local:

Technologies for accessing water, water treatment

Efficient use of water transfer of technologies,

industrial modernization,

new technologies

investment in technologies; countries emigrants coming
back and investing in technologies,

Global:

depth repayments (rich pay for poor) VERSUS: Regional:
responsibility for own failures and stop leaning on rich

global wealth distribution

unipolar to multipolar worlds- outsourcing

intensified global competition for NR
Regional: Energy dependency
Local:
Economic

price of water and other resources, competition for water
resources, polluter pay principle

structure of national economies

import-export-domestic energy resources

Economic recovery (growth, investment),

agricultural production, intensity of agricultural production,

inspection,

economic diversification,

competition for resources (link to availability)
Global:

trans boundary pollution

CC impacts, severity
Regional:
Environmental

Transboundary water flows management
Regional/local:

Environmental water demand

Distributional and allocation of ground water (quantity and
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quality)
Local:

Land use, quick land cover change

Water availability, illegal use of water (no permits),
increased water demand due to industry growth,

increased water pollution, Industrial pollution of water
resources,

scarcity of energy sources,

climate change, change in precipitation patterns,

getting to know better state of the environment in the region
and locally,
Global and EU:

global convention about environmental and historical
responsibility,

influence of legislation framework, organizational set up
and functions

role of EU at all level
Regional:

existence and strengthening of regional cooperation in
general and in water management (incl. transboudnary
legislation)
Political

geopolitical stability in region
National/Local:

weak-strong governance (accountable, fragmented)

legal framework for water management

Fragmented legal framework with gaps, weak
implementation/enforcement

awareness of water usage and need for planning,

safety/security/war,

political influence on water competition, price of resources,

democratic political prioritization processes, independent
prioritization at national level
3

capacity building,

policy decisions take in account environment,

spatial planning and documentation,

inclusion of international conventions in priorities,

strengthening of justice in states
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3 most important driving forces recognised per group
Group 1:
1. Political will for cooperation (low-high)
2. Land use changes (favourable- unfavourable)
3. Water technologies efficiency (low-high)
Group 2:
1. Regional/national governance (strong weak)
2. Geopolitical stability
Group 3:
1. Real resources cost and affordability(availability)
2. Autonomy in defining priorities
3. recognised need to strengthen local/national capacities
Testing of possible scenario matrixes
Sustainable
Regional/local governance
Rowing with current
Climate change impacts
low
Wild west Balkans
Rowing against current
hig
h
Hopeless strugle
Un-sustainable
5
favourable
Climate change impacts
low
Big impacts
NEG
Land use change (realated to water)
Long term sustainability
POS POS
unfavourable
6
Successful adaptation
POS
hig
h
Disaster/ challenge
NEG NEG
cooperation
Climate change impacts
low
Technologies efficincy
Plenty of water
hig
h
disaster
We can still manage it
conflict
7
Successful response
Available/affordable
Climate change impacts
low
Possibilities to mitigate,
mange it
Water affordability for end
users
Good, but less favourable
scenarios than second
quadrant as there is no much
motivation
Efficient resource use,
available technologies and
capacities
awareness
hig
h
Immigration, poverty, social
riots
Non available/affordable
8
cooperation
Climate change impacts
Geopolitical stability
Peaceful collaboration
Struggling together to cc
impacts
high
low
Struggling against each other
conflict
9
Breakdown
Crisis
Even the winners loose
SELECTED SCENARIO MATRIX AND
DEVELOPED SCENARIOS:
Sustainable
Yes, we can , Technogarden in
Balkan
Economic growth
SFRJ (socialistic federative
Republic of Yugoslavia)
Equality
Quite high quality of life
Good knowledge base
Good environment management
Integrated water management, strong
policies and cross border agreement,
renewable energy dominating
Green and rich and can tackle
Intensive resource use, controlled,
technology driven
Ground water drop, import of water
from Russia, energy dependant on
imports
Climate change impacts
high
low
Endless horror
Horror without end
poverty, hopeless, run to the hills, the
day after tomorrow., deteriorated
environment
,spiral development to negative
poverty, hopeless, run to the hills,
ecosystems recovery
drinking water deficit, scarcity in
general, water use in agriculture mainly
high water scarcity, extreme events not
managed leading to further
deterioration of economy
Un-sustainable
10