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Distinguishing quantum and Markov models of human decision making Jerome R. Busemeyer1, Efrain Santuy1, Ariane Lambert Mogiliansky2 1Cognitive Science, Indiana University 1101 E. 10th Street, Bloomington Indiana, 47405 [email protected] [email protected] 2PSE Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques [email protected] Abstract A general property for empirically distinguishing Markov and quantum models of dynamic decision making is derived. A critical test is based on measuring the decision process at two distinct time points, and recording the disturbance effect of the first measurement on the second. The test is presented within the context of a signal detection paradigm, in which a human or robotic operator must decide whether or not a target is present on the basis of a sequence of noisy observations. Previously, this task has been modeled as a random walk (Markov) evidence accumulation process, but more recently we developed a quantum dynamic model for this task. Parameter free predictions are derived from each model for this test. Experimental methods for conducting the proposed tests are described, and previous empirical research is reviewed. Interference is a signature of quantum processes. One way to produce interference effects is to perturb a target measurement by an earlier probe. In this article we develop Markov and quantum models of human decision making and prove that only the latter is capable of producing this type of interference effect. The decision models are developed within the context of a decision paradigm called the signal detection paradigm. Signal detection is a fundamentally important decision problem in cognitive and engineering sciences. In this dynamic decision situation, a human or robotic operator monitors rapidly incoming information to decide whether or not a potential target is present (e.g., missiles in the military, or cancer in medicine, or malfunctions in industry). The incoming information provides uncertain and conflicting (noisy) evidence, but at some point in time, a decision must be made, and the sooner the better. Incorrectly deciding that the target is present (i.e. a false alarm) could result in deadly consequences, but so could the failure to detect a real target (i.e. a miss). In statistics, Bayesian sequential sampling models provide an optimal model for this task (DeGroot, 1970). During the past 35 years, cognitive scientists (see, Ratcliff & Smith, 2004, for recent review) have developed random walk model and diffusion models to describe human performance on this task. The random walk/diffusion models are Markov models, and they are also closely related to the optimal Bayesian sequential sampling model (Bogatz, et. al., 2006). Recently, we (Busemeyer, Townsend, & Wang, 2006) developed a quantum dynamic model for the signal decision task. Thus an important question is what fundamental properties distinguish these two very different classes of models? First we describe the formal characteristics of a signal detection task. Second, we describe Markov and quantum models of signal detection. Third we derive theoretical properties from each model that provide a parameter free test of the two models. Finally, we summarize experimental results that provide initial evidence for interference effects in human decision making. The Signal Detection Task Signal detection can be a very complex task. But our goal is to describe a simple setting for testing models of this task. Imagine, for example, a security agent who is checking baggage for weapons. With this idea in mind, we assume that a decision maker is faced with a series of choice trials. On each trial, a noisy stimulus is presented for some fixed period of time, tf, and at the end of the fixed time period, the decision maker has to immediately decide whether or not a target was present. The evidence generated by the stimulus is assumed to be stationary during the duration of the stimulus. The amount of time given to observe the stimulus can be experimentally manipulated. The operator can respond by choosing one of 2n+1 ordered levels of confidence (n is assumed to be an even number). For example, n = 2 produces five levels that might be labeled: 2 = no target with high confidence, 1 = no target with low confidence, 0 = uncertain, +1 = yes target with low confidence, +2 = yes target with high confidence). The choice probabilities of the 2n+1 categories are estimated from each person pooled across responses made on several thousand choice trials. Models of Signal Detection A random walk (Markov) model To construct a random walk (Markov) model for this task, we postulate a set of (2m+1) states of confidence about the presence or absence of the target: { |m, |m+1 , …, |1, |0, |+1, …, |+m1, |+m }. The state |j can be interpreted as a (2m+1) column vector with zeros everywhere, except that it has 1.0 located at the row corresponding to index j. Positive indices, j > 0, represent a state of evidence favoring target present; negative indices, j < 0, represent a state of evidence for target absent, and zero represents a neutral state of evidence. The number of states could be as small as the number of response categories (m = n), but the participant may be able to employ a more refined scale of confidence, and so the number could also be much larger (m = 10n). At the start of a single trial, the process starts in some particular state, for example the neutral state |0. Then as time progresses within the trial, the process either steps up one index, or steps down one index, or stays at the same state, depending on the information or evidence that is sampled at that moment. The process continues moving up or down the evidence scale until the fixed time period tf ends and a decision is requested. At that point, a choice and a rating are made based on the state existing at the time of decision. The initial state of the decision maker on each choice trial is not known, and this initial state may even change from trial to trial. The probability of starting in state |j is denoted Pj(0), and the (2m+1) column vector P(0) = j Pj(0)|j represents the initial probability distribution over states so that j Pj(0) = 1. During an observation period of time t of a single trial, the probability distribution over states, P(t), evolves in a direction guided by the incoming evidence from the stimulus. This evolution is determined by a transition matrix T(t) as follows: P(t) = T(t) P(0). The entry in row i and column j of T(t), Tij(t), determines the probability of transiting to state |i from state |j after a period of time t. The transition matrix must satisfy 0 Tij(t) 1 and i Tij(t) = 1 to guarantee that P(t) remains a probability distribution. The transition matrix satisfies the group property T(tf) = T(tf ti)T(ti), and from this it follows that it satisfies the Kolmogorov forward equation: dT(t)/d(t) = KT(t), which has the solution T(t) = exp(tK). The matrix K is called the intensity matrix with element Kij determining the rate of change in probability to state |i from state |j. The intensities must satisfy kij 0 for i j and i kij = 0 to guarantee that T(t) remains a transition matrix. The random walk model is a special case of a Markov process which assumes that intensities are positive only between adjacent states: kij = 0 for |ij| > 1. For |j| < m, we make the following assumptions: If the target is present then we assume that kj+1,j > kj1,j; if the target is absent then we assume that kj1,j > kj+1,j. At the boundaries, we set km1,+m > 0 and km+1,m > 0 (reflecting boundaries). Note that the discrete state random walk model is closely related to a continuous state diffusion model. If we allow the number of states to become arbitrarily large, and at the same time let the increment between states become arbitrarily small, then the distribution produced by the random walk model converges to the distribution produced by the diffusion model (see Bhattacharya & Waymire, 1990, pp. 386-388). The response measured at time tf is determined by the following choice rule. The entire set of states is partitioned into 2n+1subsets, with the first subset define by Rn = { |j | m j cn), and subsequent subsets defined by Rk = { |j | ck-1 j ck) with cn = +m. If the state of confidence at time tf equals |jRk, then the response category k is selected. The probability of this event is simply Pr[R(tf) = k] = j Rk Pj(tf). For later comparisons with the quantum model, it will be helpful to redefine the computation of the response probabilities in matrix notation. Define Mk as a projection matrix with elements Mjj = 1 if |jRk, and zero otherwise. Note that k=1,n Mk = I, where I is the identity matrix. Then MkP(tf) is the projection of the probability vector P(tf) onto the subspace defined by the states that are assigned to category k. Define 1 as a (2m+1) row vector with all entries equal to one. Then the desired probability equals the sum of the elements in the projection: Pr[R(tf) = k] = 1MkP(tf) . A quantum dynamic decision model To construct a quantum model for this task, we again postulate a set of (2m+1) states of confidence about the presence or absence of the target: { |m, |m+1 , …, |1, |0, |+1, …, |+m1, |+m }. In this case, we assume that these states form an orthonormal basis for a (2m+1) dimensional Hilbert space. More specifically, i|j = 0 for every i j and i|i = 1 for all i, where i|j denotes the inner product between two vectors. As before, states with positive indices represent evidence favoring target present, states with negative indices represent evidence for target absent, and zero represents a neutral state of evidence. The initial state of the quantum system is represented by a superposition of the confidence states |(0) = j |jj|(0) = j j(0)|j. The coefficient j(0) = j|(0) is the probability amplitude of being in state |j at start of the trial. The complex (2m+1) column vector (0) represents the initial probability amplitude distribution over the states. The coordinate in the j-th row of (0) is j(0) = j|(0). The initial state vector has unit length so that (0)|(0) = (0)†(0) = 1.0. The initial probability amplitude distribution over states represents the decision maker’s initial beliefs at the beginning of the trial. During an observation period of time t of a single trial, the probability amplitude distribution over states, (t), evolves in a direction guided by the incoming evidence from the stimulus. This evolution is determined by a unitary matrix U(t) as follows: (t) = U(t) (0). The entry in row i and column j of U(t), Uij(t), determines the probability amplitude of transiting to state |i from state |j after a period of time t. The unitary matrix must satisfy U(t)†U(t) = I (where I is the identity matrix) to guarantee that (t) remains unit length. The unitary matrix satisfies the group property U(tf) = U(tf ti)U(ti), and from this it follows that it satisfies the Schrödinger equation: dU(t)/d(t) = iHU(t), which has the solution U(t) = exp(itH). The complex number i = 1 is needed to guarantee that U(t) is unitary. The matrix H is called the Hamiltonian matrix with element Hij determining the rate of change in probability amplitude to state |i from state |j. The Hamiltonian matrix must be Hermitian (H = H†) to guarantee that U(t) remains unitary. To construct a random walk analogue, we assume that Hamiltonian elements are non zero only between adjacent states: Hi,j = 0 for |ij| > 1. For rows |j| < m, we make the following assumptions: Hj1,j = Hj+1,j = and Hjj = j. If the target is present, then we assume that j+1 > j ; if the target is absent then we assume that j+1 < j. At the boundaries we set Hm1,+m = = Hm+1,m and Hm,m = m Hmm = m. This choice of Hamiltonian corresponds to a crystal model discussed in Feynman et al. (1966, Ch. 16). Note that the discrete state quantum walk model is closely related to a continuous state quantum model. Once again, if we allow the number of states to become arbitrarily large, and at the same time let the increment between states become arbitrarily small, then the distribution produced by the discrete quantum model converges to the distribution produced by the continuous quantum model (see Feynman et al., 1966, Ch. 16). Also note that the Hamiltonian defined above is closely related to the Hamiltonian that is commonly used to model the one dimensional movement of a particle in physics: H = P2/2m + V(x). The off diagonal elements of the Hamiltonian correspond to the P2 operator, and the diagonal elements correspond to the potential function V(x) (see Feynman et al. (1966, Ch. 16). The quantum response probabilities measured at time tf are determined as follows. Once again the entire set of states is partitioned into 2n+1subsets, with the first subset define by Rn = { |j | m j cn), and subsequent subsets defined by Rk = { |j | ck-1 < j ck) with cn = +m. The probability of choosing category k at time tf is simply Pr[R(tf) = k] = j Rk |j(tf)|2. As before, it will be helpful to describe these computations in matrix formalism. Define Mk as a projection matrix with elements Mjj = 1 if |jRk, and zero otherwise. Note again that k=1,n Mk = I, where I is the identity matrix. Then Mk(tf) is the projection of the probability amplitude vector (tf) onto the subspace defined by the states that are assigned to category k. Then the probability is given by the squared length of the projection: Pr[R(tf) = k] = |Mk(tf)|2 = (tf)†Mk†Mk(tf) = (tf)†Mk(tf). The disturbance effect of measurement. We modify the signal detection task by asking the decision maker to report a confidence rating at two time points, ti initially and later tf. The initial confidence measurement will cause a ‘state collapse’ with both the Markov and the quantum models. But how does this change the final distribution of probabilities? This simple manipulation has profoundly different effects on the two models. The quantum model exhibits an interference effect that does not occur with the Markov model. The general idea is to compare the results from two experimental conditions at time tf. Under the single measurement condition (C1), we can estimate the probability distribution over the category responses at time tf , that is Pr[ R(tf) = k | C1]. Under the double measurement condition (C2), we can obtain another estimate of the probability distribution over the category responses at time tf using the law of total probability Pr[ R(tf) = k | C2] = k’ Pr[ R(tf) = k R(ti) = k’ ], = k’ Pr[ R(tf) = k | R(ti) = k’ ] Pr[ R(ti) = k’ ]. Effects of measurement on the Markov model. According to the Markov model, the distribution over the confidence states immediately before measurement at time ti will be P(ti) = T(ti) P(0). The probability of choosing category k’ is Pr[ R(ti) = k’] = 1Mk’P(ti) . If category k’ is selected at this point, then the probability distribution over states collapses to a new distribution after measurement P(ti|k’) = Mk’P(ti) / 1Mk’P(ti). The joint probability of selecting category k’ and then reaching one of the (2m+1) final states at time tf equals [T(tf ti)P(ti|k’)]Pr[R(ti) = k’] = T(tf ti) Mk’ P(ti) . The joint probability of selecting category k’ and then selecting category k at time tf equals Pr[ R(tf) = k R(ti) = k’ ] = 1MkT(tf ti)Mk’P(ti). The marginal probability of selecting category k at time tf equals Pr[ R(tf) = k | C2] = k’ Pr[ R(tf) = k R(ti) = k’ ] = k’ 1MkT(tf ti)Mk’ P(ti) = 1MkT(tf ti)k’ Mk’P(ti) = 1MkT(tf ti)( k’ Mk’)P(ti) = 1MkT(tf ti)IP(ti) = 1MkT(tf ti)P(ti) = 1MkT(tf ti)T(ti)P(0) = 1 Mk T(tf )P(0) = Pr[ R(tf) = k | C1]. Thus the first measurement has no effect on the marginal distribution of the second measurement. The law of total probability is satisfied. However, the first measurement does influence the distribution of the second measurement, conditioned on the observed value of the first measurement. So it is important for us to compare models using the marginal distribution. It is important to note that the above results hold quite generally. It holds for any number of confidence states (as long as this number is equal or greater than the number of response categories). It holds for any transition matrix T(t) and so it is not restricted to any particular form of intensity matrix. Finally, it holds for any initial probability distribution across the confidence states. This property tests a basic assumption of linearity that is implicit in the Markov model: 1 Mk T(t)[pP1(0) + qP2(0)] , = p[1 Mk T(t) P1(0)] + q[1 Mk T(t) P2(0)]. Effects of measurement on the quantum model. According to the quantum model, the probability amplitude distribution over the confidence states immediately before measurement at time ti equals (ti) = U(ti) (0). The probability of choosing category k’is Pr[ R(ti) = k’] = |Mk’(ti)|2 . If category k’ is selected at this point, then the amplitude distribution over states collapses to a new distribution after measurement (ti|k’) = Mk’ (ti)/ |Mk’(ti)| . The probability amplitude distribution over the (2m+1) final states at time tf given k’ observed at time ti equals = U(tf ti)(ti|k’), = U(tf ti)[Mk’(ti)/|Mk’(ti)|] . The projection of this final distribution on the basis states of response category k at time tf equals = MkU(tf ti)(ti|k’) = MkU(tf ti)[Mk’(ti)/|Mk’(ti)|]. The joint probability of selecting category k’ and then selecting category k at time tf equals Pr[ R(tf) = k R(ti) = k’ ] = Pr[ R(ti) = k ‘]|MkU(tf ti)[Mk’(ti)/|Mk’(ti)|]|2 = |Mk’(ti)|2(|MkU(tf ti)Mk’(ti)|2)/|Mk’(ti)|2 = |MkU(tf ti)Mk’(ti)|2 = |MkU(tf ti)Mk’U(ti)(0)|2 . The marginal probability of selecting category k at time tf equals Pr[ R(tf) = k | C2] = k’ Pr[ R(tf) = k R(ti) = k’ ] , = k’ |MkU(tf ti)Mk’U(ti)(0) |2 , | k’ MkU(tf ti)Mk’U(ti)(0) |2 , = | MkU(tf ti) k’ Mk’U(ti)(0) |2 , = | MkU(tf ti) (k’ Mk’)U(ti)(0) |2 , = | MkU(tf ti) I U(ti)(0) |2 , = | MkU(tf ti)U(ti)(0) |2 , = | MkU(tf )(0) |2 , = Pr[ R(tf) = k | C1] . The two results are not equal, and the first measurement does effect the marginal distribution of the second measurement. The law of total probability is not satisfied. As noted above, it is important for us to compare models using the marginal distribution from the two conditions. The difference between the two marginal distributions, d(tf ti) = Pr[ R(tf) = k | C2] Pr[ R(tf) = k | C1], is called the interference effect, and it depends strongly on the time lag (tf ti). It is important to note that the above results hold quite generally. Once again, it holds for any number of confidence states (as long as this number is equal or greater than the number of response categories). It holds for any unitary matrix U(t) and so it is not restricted to any particular form of Hamiltonian matrix. Finally, it holds for any initial probability amplitude distribution across the confidence states. This property tests a basic assumption of nonlinearity that is implicit in the quantum model: |Mk U(t)[pP1(0) + qP2(0)]|2 , p|Mk U(t) P1(0)|2 + q|Mk T(t) P2(0)|2. Example of interference effects. To illustrate the predicted interference effect of the quantum model, the predictions for the single and double conditions were computed using the following parameters: (2m+1) = 51, 2K+1 = 3, c1 = 9, c+1 = +8, 1(0) = 0(0) = +1(0) = 1/3, = .5, j = j/51, tf = ti+50. The differences between the double versus the single conditions are shown in the table below for various ti. As can be seen in this table, the interference effects can be quite large. Interference Effect Initial time k = 1 k=0 k = +1 ti = 0 0 0 0 ti = 100 .0385 .0251 -.0636 ti = 200 .0177 .0865 -.1043 ti = 300 .0592 .1509 .2101 Note: These predictions were computed from the quantum equations using Matlab’s matrix exponential function. Proposed method for investigating the interference effect. An experiment is underway to experimentally investigate the disturbance effect of measurement. A signal detection task was designed that requires an average decision time of at least 1 second or more. Within this amount of time, a probe measurement can be made, say within 500 msec, and a final measurement can obtained after 1000 msec. The participants are asked to view a complex visual scene and decide whether or not a target object (e.g. a bomb) is present or not, similar to the task faced by security agents at airports or government buildings. The time interval between probe and final measurement will be manipulated, as well as the discriminability of the stimulus and prior probability of the target. According to our quantum model, the time interval would affect the delay parameter (tfti), the discriminability would affect the potential of the Hamiltonian, j, and the prior probability would affect the initial state, (0). Related empirical tests of interference effects in human decision making. Although we are not aware of any experimental tests of interference effects that were conducted using the single and double measurement conditions described above, several related lines of evidence have been reported by past researchers. Townsend, Silva, & Spencer – Smith (2000) conducted a closely related test of interference. Decision makers were presented faces belonging to one of two categories (e.g., good guys, bad guys) and they were asked to decide to choose between two actions (e.g. attack or withdraw). Two conditions were examined: In the category decision task they were asked to first categorize the face, and then decide how to act; in the decision only task, they were only asked to decide how to act and no categorization was requested. This paradigm was used to investigate the interference effect of the category task on the decision task. Townsend et al. (2000) reported that 72 out of 276 participants produced statistically significant deviations from the predictions of a Markov model. Busemeyer & Wang (2006) explained these deviations using a quantum dynamic decision model. Shafir and Tversky (1992) tested a property called the sure thing principle, which could be re-interpreted as a test of interference effects (Busemeyer, Matthew, Wang, 2006). Decision makers were asked to play a prisoner dilemma game under three conditions: Knowing the opponent has defected, knowing the opponent has cooperated, and not knowing the opponent’s action. This paradigm can be used to determine the interference effect produced by knowledge of the opponent on the choice of the decision maker. Decision makers defected 97% of the time when the other was known to defect; 84% of the time when the other was known to cooperate; and 63% of the time when the other’s action was unknown. Busemeyer et al. (2006) showed that these results also violate the predictions of a Markov model, and they explained these findings using a quantum dynamic decision model. Conte et al. (2006) conducted an experiment to test interference effects in perception. The task required individual’s to judge whether or not two lines were identical. The lines were in fact identical, but they were presented within a context that is known to produce a perceptual illusion of a difference. Two conditions were examined: In one condition, line judgment task B was presented alone; in another condition, line judgment task A preceded line judgment task B. The results showed significant differences in the response proportions to task B. These results were interpreted within a general quantum measurement framework developed by Khrennikov (2007). Atmanspacher, Filk, & Romer (2004) examined a quantum zeno effect in a bi-stable perception task. The task involves the presentation of a Necker cube, which is the projection of a cube onto a plane. The projection can be perceptually interpreted as being viewed from a top or bottom viewpoint, and the viewer experiences a spontaneous switch from one view to another. The time period between switches in experienced viewpoints is the primary measurement of interest. According to quantum theory, this time period can be extended by repeated measurements of the perception. Atmanspacher, et. al. (2004) report some experimental evidence related to this effect, and they explain these results using a quantum dynamic model. Comparing Markov and quantum models There is a surprising amount of similarity between the Markov and quantum models. The basic equations appear almost the same if one simply replaces probabilities with complex amplitudes. The initial states of both models can be represented as a linear combination of basis states (mixed versus superposition). The transition operators that evolve the states both obey simple group properties which lead to deterministic linear differential equations (Kolmogorov versus Schrödinger). The solutions to the differential equations are matrix exponentials for both models. Measurement produces a collapse of the states for both models. Based on these similarities, one might suspect that the two models are indistinguishable. This is not the case because there are several key differences between the models. First, the Markov model operates on real valued probabilities (bounded between zero and one), whereas the quantum model operates on complex probability amplitudes. Second, the intensity matrix for the Markov model obeys different constraints than the Hamiltonian for the quantum model. Third, the Schrödinger equation introduces a complex multiplier to maintain a unitary operation. Finally, the Markov model uses a linear projection to determine the final probabilities, but the quantum model uses a nonlinear operation (the squared projection) to determine the final probabilities. The latter is crucial for the interference effect examined in this paper. The interference effect produced by the quantum model cannot be reproduced by the Markov model. One might speculate that the quantum model is more general than the Markov model. However, this is not the case either. In particular, the intensity matrix is less constrained than the Hamiltonian matrix. The Hermitian constraint on the Hamiltonian for the quantum model restricts its ability to perform like the Markov model. The dynamics produced by the two models are quite different. The Markov model is analogous to blowing sand in a direction, and with time a sand pile builds up to a stable equilibrium distribution. The quantum model is analogous to blowing water in a direction, causing a wave to splash and oscillate back and forth. In sum, despite their similarity, one model is not a special case of the other. Summary and Concluding Comments An incipient but growing number of researchers have begun to apply quantum principles to human decision making. Bordely (1998) proposed quantum probability rules to explain paradoxes in human probability judgments. Mogiliansky, Zamir, and Zwirn (2004) used non commutative measurement operators to explain cognitive dissonance effects in human decisions. Gabora and Aerts (2002) developed a quantum theory of conjunctive judgments. Aerts (2007) extended these ideas to disjunctive judgments. Ricciardi (2007) formulated a quantum model to explain the conjunctive fallacy in probability judgments. La Mura (2006) has proposed a theory of expected utility based on quantum principles. Applications to game theory have been proposed by Eisert, Wilkens, and Lewenstein (1999) and Piotrowski & Sladkowski (2003), and experimental tests of these ideas have been carried out by Chen, et. al. (2006). More broadly, quantum principles have also been applied to price theory in economic problems by Haven (2005). All of the above applications follow a quantum decision program of research that uses only the mathematical principles of quantum theory to explain human decision making behavior (Aerts, et al., 2003; Atmanspacher, et al., 2002; Khrennikov, 2007). No attempt or assumptions are made at this point about the possible neural basis for these computations. 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