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EMERGING PATHOGENS: READY OR NOT HERE THEY COME! Presented at AFHSA Training Conference September 28, 2015 Charleston, SC Karen K Hoffmann RN, MS, CIC, FSHEA Adjunct Clinical Instructor UNC School of Medicine at Chapel Hill Infection Preventionist Consultant CMS Survey and Certification Group Disclosures Carefusion, speaker (not Current) AMA Foundation, consultant (not current) CMS, consultant (current) Disclaimers The information provided in this lecture is only intended to be general summary information to the public. It is not intended to take the place of statute, regulations or official CMS policy. Objectives List risk factors supporting emerging pathogens. Describe the most significant emerging pathogens of the past 2 decades. Review the HHS, CMS, CDC responses to recent Ebola outbreak. EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES: DEFINITION Emerging infectious diseases - defined as infections that have newly appeared in the population, or have existed but are rapidly increasing in incidence or geographic range SUCCESS STORIES Vaccine Preventable Smallpox Polio Measles Rubella Varicella Invasive Haemophilus influenzae type b Other Toxic shock (S. aureus) Tooth decay Tuberculosis Rheumatic fever Enteric infections from potable water Safer pregnancy/delivery EMERGING DISEASE THREATS WORLDWIDE XDR tuberculosis Avian influenza Multi-drug resistant bacteria (MDROs) Middle eastern respiratory Syndrome (MERS) Ebola SOURCES OF EXOTIC DISEASES Travel Animal exposure (zoonotic diseases) Exposure via travel, leisure pursuits (hunting, camping, fishing), occupation (farming), pets Bioterrorist agents Research Exposure via laboratory work or animal care ZOONOSES AS EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES SINCE 1990 1993 (US) - Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (Sin nombre virus) 1994 (US) – Human granulocyte ehrlichiosis 1995 (Worldwide) - Kaposi sarcoma (HHV-8) 1995 (US) – Cyclosporiasis from raspberries 1996 (England) – Variant Creutzfeld-Jakob disease (vCJD) 1997-present (Asia) – Avian influenza (H5N1) 1998 (Malaysia) – Nipah virus 1999 (US) - West Nile encephalitis (West Nile virus) 2001 (US) - Anthrax attack via letters 2002 (US) – Vancomycin-resistant S. aureus 2003 (Chinaworldwide) - Severe acute respiratory syndrome (coronavirus) 2003 (US) – Monkeypox 2009 (Mexico worldwide) – Novel H1N1 influenza (triple reassortment; human, avian, swine) 2012- Middle East -Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome MERS 2014 West Africa- Ebola outbreak FACTORS LEADING TO EMEGENCE OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO EMERGENCE OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES Societal events Health care Food production Human behavior Environmental change Public health infrastructure Microbial adaptation and change FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO NEW DISEASES SOCIETAL EVENTS Economic impoverishment War or civil conflict Population growth and migration Urban decay Use of high-density facilities (e.g., prisons, day care) FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO NEW DISEASES HEALTH CARE New medical devices Organ or tissue transplantation Drugs causing immunosuppression Widespread use of antibiotics FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO NEW DISEASES FOOD PRODUCTION Globalization of food supplies Changes in food processing, packaging, and preparation FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO NEW DISEASES HUMAN BEHAVIOR Travel Sexual behavior Drug use Diet Outdoor recreation Use of day care facilities 6 5 300 ( Days to Circumnavigate ( the Globe 350 ) 400 4 250 200 3 150 2 100 50 1 0 0 1850 1900 Year 1950 2000 World Population in billions ) Speed of Global Travel in Relation to World Population Growth FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO NEW DISEASES ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES Deforestation and/or reforestation Changes in water ecosystems Flood/drought Famine Global warming FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO NEW DISEASES MICROBIAL ADAPTATION AND CHANGE Changes in virulence and toxin production Development of drug resistance Microbes as cofactors in chronic diseases FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO NEW DISEASES PUBLIC HEALTH INFRASTRUCTURE Curtailment or reduction in prevention programs Inadequate communicable disease surveillance Lack of trained personnel Epidemiologists Laboratory scientists Vector and rodent control specialists ANIMALS ASSOCIATED WITH SARS: PALM CIVET AND CHINESE HORSESHOE BAT • SARS SARS: CASES AND OUTCOME Cases: 1 Nov 2003 to 31 July 2004 Deaths 8,096 774 (9.6%) HCWs Countries (total) 1,706 (21%) 29 WHO 21 April 2004 LESSONS LEARNED FROM SARS Initial detection via the astute observer (not via a surveillance system) New disease can involve multiple countries Continued threat from zoonotic agents jumping species boundaries Healthcare workers at high risk with highly communicable diseases Diagnostic methods key to control Epidemics can be contained using quarantine and infection control methods Need to nestle response to a highly communicable disease in hospital disaster plan Inadequate supplies of PPE Inadequate outpatient facilities to handle highly communicable diseases Need to screen for travel to endemic area at entry to hospital or clinic EXTREME DRUG RESISTANT TUBERCULOSIS (XDR-TB) Risk factors for XDR-TB Persons who do not take their TB medications regularly Persons who do not take all their TB medications Develop active TB disease again, after being treated in the past Emigrated from areas of the world where XDR-TB common Contact with a person with XDR-TB http://www.who.int/tb_beijingmeeting/media/pres s_pack/presentations/day1_presentation1.pdf EXTREME DRUG RESISTANT TUBERCULOSIS (XDR-TB) Definitions Concerns MDR-TB = Resistant to IHN and rifampin XDR-TB = Resistant to INH and rifampin PLUS resistant to any fluoroquinolone and at least one of three injectable second-line drugs (i.e., amikacin, kanamycin, or capreomycin) Few treatment options Worse outcomes Low risk in the US (currently) High morbidity if HIV+ US frequency = 90 cases, 1993-2012 • • Zoonotic virus – bats the most likely reservoir, although species unknown Spillover event from infected wild animals (e.g., fruit bats, monkey, duiker) to humans, followed by human-human transmission CMS Ebola Response CDC and CMS Joint Collaboration SC 15-10-Hospitals concerning EMTALA Requirements and Implications Related to the EVD. Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act (EMTALA) and Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) – Questions and Answers (Q+A) 'CMS in Response' Preparedness 30 Influenza Disease Burden to U.S. Society in an Average Year Deaths 25,000 - 72,000 Hospitalizations 114,000 - 257,500 Physician visits ~ 25 million Infections and illnesses 50 - 60 million Thompson WW et al. JAMA. 2003;289:179-86. Couch RB. Ann Intern Med. 2000;133:992-8. Patriarca PA. JAMA. 1999;282:75-7. ACIP. MMWR. 2004;53(RR06):1-40. Hampson AW, Mackenzie JS. MJA 2006;185:S39-43 PANDEMIC INFLUENZA PLANNING CHALLENGES Pandemic strain unknown unti pandemic The ability of the virus to rapidly spread worldwide Simultaneous outbreaks throughout the US, limiting the ability of any jurisdiction to provide assistance to other areas People may be asymptomatic while infectious Long duration (>2 years) and multiple waves Enormous demands on the healthcare system Need for surge capacity: Medications, ventilators, beds, personnel Personnel: Exhaustion, concerns about infection Maintaining social distancing Providing adequate PPE Providing adequate antivirals including distribution/allocation Vaccine development and distribution/allocation Emergence of Quadruple-Reassortant H1N1/09 Garten et al., Science, 2009; 325:198 BASIC CONCEPTS IN DISEASE EMERGENCE Emergence of infectious diseases is complex Infectious diseases are dynamic Most new infections are not caused by genuinely new pathogens Agents involved in new and reemergent infections cross taxonomic lines The concept of the microbe as the cause of disease is inadequate and incomplete Wilson ME. Emerging Infectious Diseases 1995;1:39. BASIC CONCEPTS IN DISEASE EMERGENCE Human activities are the most potent factors driving disease emergence Social, economic, political, climatic, technologic, and environmental factors shape disease patterns and influence emergence Understanding and responding to disease emergence require a global prospective, conceptually and geographically The current global situation favors disease emergence Toss to Priti here