Download Le projet Européen ACCESS GASCARD Jean Claude (1), LAW

Le projet Européen ACCESS
GASCARD Jean Claude (1), LAW Kathy(2), THOMAS Jennie(2)
(1)
:LOCEAN/CNRS/UPMC, 4 place Jussieu, Paris 5e, [email protected]
(2)
:LATMOS/CNRS/UPMC/UVSQ, 4 place Jussieu, Paris 5e,
kathy law [email protected], Jennie Thomas <[email protected]>
Arctic Climate Change and impact on Economy and Society
The Arctic has experienced substantial changes in recent years. These
changes are most likely caused by a combination of natural variability of the highlatitude climate system, anthropogenic changes in the radiation balance and
subsequently in atmospheric and oceanic heat transports and feedbacks of the airsea-ice-ocean coupled system triggered by a thinning Arctic sea-ice cover. Climate
scenarios and current climate models are unable to reproduce these recent changes.
Sea-ice is vanishing faster than in all coupled climate model scenario calculations.
None of those calculations anticipated the 2007 drastic sea-ice retreat. To improve
scenarios and climate models, a number of measures are necessary. In ACCESS we
will monitor the current status and changes of the Arctic sea-ice to provide a baseline
against which to compare projected future changes and to maintain the critical
measurements that are needed to confirm and determine the trends in the ocean, ice
and atmospheric changes. Projections and estimates of uncertainties for future
developments on time scales of up to 30 years will be provided by own simulations.
This includes regionally differentiated scenarios for the development of sea-ice and
its variability on interannual to sub-seasonal scale; changes in the frequency, locality
and intensity of extreme weather events; and potential changes in oceanic current
systems that could result from increased economic activity in the Arctic and feed them
into Earth System Models to produce enhanced climate projections as a basis for
European policies and actions.
For long time, mariners have dreamt of an Arctic shortcut that would allow
them to increase the efficiency of trade between Asia and the West. ACCESS will
consider all the necessary preparatory work involved for these shipping marine
activities including a growing interest by the tourism industry in Arctic waters, taking
into account all the climate, weather, sea-ice variables impacting on these activities in
order to optimize the kind of necessary scientific, technical and operational
information needed for such activities. In addition there will also be a main task
dedicated to the potential impacts these shipping activities would have on the
sensitive marine environment including air pollution and long range transport
pollutants by the atmospheric circulation, soot and black carbon deposition on seaice, oil spill and ballasting ships tanks in subarctic seas.
The Barents sea is one of the most active fishing area in the world. This is also
one of the most dynamic areas for ocean and atmospheric circulation connecting the
North Atlantic and Europe with the Arctic regions. The northern Barents sea is largely
influenced by Arctic currents, Arctic sea-ice and icebergs. Marine mammals are very
abundant in this region and the increasing human activities creating noise and other
pollution in the Barents sea, are threatening this population. In the context of climate
changes in the Arctic, the Barents sea is certainly one place where one can foresee
radical changes in a near future. During ACCESS and based on existing marine
ecosystems, we will carefully look at the sensitivity of these ecosystems exposed to
essential climate variables. The analysis of socio-economic aspects of fisheries
industry in the context of climate changes in the Arctic will be a major task of
ACCESS.
The melting of sea-ice is increasing the accessibility of offshore oil and gas
deposits. However the special conditions in the Arctic, in particular low temperatures,
extensive dark periods in winter, the presence of icebergs, sea-ice and associated
environmental risks, make the extraction of energy resources more hazardous and
expensive. It is the aim of ACCESS to assess the opportunities and multiple risks
related to oil and gas extraction in the Arctic Ocean, to highlight potential
environmental pressures, provide pathways for technological, legal and institutional
solutions and to analyze the socio-economic impacts of resource extraction activity on
European, world markets and societies. To better assess the opportunities and risks
of resource extraction in the Arctic Ocean, information is needed with respect to the
present and predicted meteorological and oceanographic conditions in this region. It
is ACCESS objective to respond to these challenges by proposing solutions that
eventually would lead to new concepts for offshore platforms and other equipments.
The wide range of legislative instruments, agreements, conventions at national
and international level provide a complex, often overlapping and in some areas,
conflicting system of regulation in an area requiring special integrated overview.
ACCESS is uniquely positioned to provide this reflection process, to identify lacunae
in the system and to offer strategic policy options for the medium and long-term future
in the context of climate change. Prevention and mitigation concern global and transboundary processes with negative impacts on the Arctic such as long-range transport
of pollutants by the atmosphere and the ocean. We need to strengthen international
long-term cooperation to identify areas where support for adaptation has to be
provided. There is also a need to explore the possibility of establishing multi-sector
frameworks for integrated ecosystem-based management and marine spatial
planning including network of marine protected areas, navigational measures and
rules for ensuring the sustainable exploitation of resources in the context of a very
pronounced climate change impacting the whole Arctic region. ACCESS will build on
work in scientific and socio-economic fields to identify how the governance system
can be made more effective and coherent. Recognizing the particular vulnerability of
the Arctic region and its crucial importance to the world climate system, ACCESS will
contribute to formulating and implementing EU actions and policies that impact on the
Arctic with respect for its uniqueness, the sensitivities of ecosystems and their
biodiversity as well as needs and rights of Arctic residents, including indigenous
peoples. ACCESS will promote a permanent dialogue with NGOs on the state of the
environment in the Arctic. ACCESS will heavily rely on intense cooperation with other
EU Arctic funded projects presenting a strong interest for ACCESS general and
specific goals. The interaction of ACCESS with the stakeholders in the
stakeholders/end-users forum, will be a major undertaking of the ACCESS project.