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Summary report on marine and coastal biodiversity risk assessment workshops April 2009 Corangamite Catchment Management Authority ABN 60 356 974 029 PO Box 159, Colac VIC 3250 Tel. + 03 5232 9100 Fax: + 03 5232 2759 [email protected] www.ccma.vic.gov.au Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report Table of Content Abbreviations .......................................................................................................................................... 4 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 Corangamite Marine and Coastal Biodiversity Strategy ................................................................ 5 Background ................................................................................................................................ 5 Purpose of strategy.................................................................................................................... 5 Process for development ........................................................................................................... 5 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 Risk Assessment Workshops ........................................................................................................ 6 Background to risk assessment................................................................................................. 6 Purpose of workshops ............................................................................................................... 6 Scope ......................................................................................................................................... 7 Definitions .................................................................................................................................. 7 Structure .................................................................................................................................... 7 Participation ............................................................................................................................... 8 Assumptions and limitations ...................................................................................................... 9 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 Methodology................................................................................................................................. 10 Facilitation ................................................................................................................................ 10 Determining priority assets ...................................................................................................... 10 Determining priority threats ..................................................................................................... 10 Discussion of impacts and management actions for priority threats ....................................... 10 Risk assessment...................................................................................................................... 10 2 3 4 Results ......................................................................................................................................... 11 4.1 Thompsons Landscape Zone – Asset list ............................................................................... 11 4.2 Thompsons Landscape Zone– Threats and risk rankings for priority assets .......................... 12 4.3 Thompsons Landscape Zone – Risk assessment summary ................................................... 17 4.4 Aire/Otway Landscape Zones – Asset list ............................................................................... 21 4.5 Aire/Otway Landscape Zones – Threats and risk rankings for priority assets ........................ 22 4.6 Aire/Otway Landscape Zones – Risk assessment summary .................................................. 26 4.7 Curdies/Gellibrand Landscape Zones – Asset list ................................................................... 28 4.8 Curdies/Gellibrand Landscape Zones - Threats and risk rankings for priority assets ............. 29 4.9 Curdies/Gellibrand Landscape Zones – Risk assessment summary ...................................... 34 4.10 Bellarine/Hovells Landscape Zones – Asset list ...................................................................... 37 4.11 Bellarine/Hovells Landscape Zones - Threat and risk rankings for priority assets ................. 38 4.12 Bellarine/Hovells Landscape Zones – Risk assessment summary ......................................... 44 4.13 Possible Management Actions ................................................................................................ 48 5 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 Discussion .................................................................................................................................... 51 Categorisation of assets .......................................................................................................... 51 Priority threats .......................................................................................................................... 51 Risk assessment limitations .................................................................................................... 53 Management actions ............................................................................................................... 53 Comments from the workshops ............................................................................................... 54 Points for consideration in the development of the strategy.................................................... 54 6 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................... 56 7 References ................................................................................................................................... 57 APPENDIX 1 Workshop Handout ..................................................................................................... 58 APPENDIX 2 Combined risk rankings for priority threats ................................................................. 59 APPENDIX 3 Summary of threats to coastal assets ........................................................................ 60 APPENDIX 4 Summary of threats to fauna assets ........................................................................... 63 APPENDIX 5 Summary of threats to marine assets ......................................................................... 66 2 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report REPORT NUMBER : MCBRAR001 REV DESCRIPTION O Draft ORIG REVIEW CCMA APPROVAL W Shea N McCristal DATE April 2009 RELEASE STATEMENT: Unclassified (Shared without Restrictions) REVIEW STATUS: Review Not Required 3 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report ABBREVIATIONS ABKRPR CoM Apollo Bay Kennett River Public Reserves Committee of Management ANGAIR Anglesea and Aireys Inlet Society for the Protection of Native Flora and Fauna BCN Bellarine Catchment Network CA/CC Coast Action/Coastcare CCMA Corangamite Catchment Management Authority CoM Committee of Management COS Colac Otway Shire DPI Department of Primary Industries DSE Department of Sustainability and Environment EPA Environment Protection Authority EVC Ecological Vegetation Class GORCC Great Ocean Road Coast Committee LZAP Landscape Zone Action Plan MYC Motor Yacht Club PV Parks Victoria RCS Regional Catchment Strategy RCT Resource Condition Target SLSC Surf Life Saving Club SOLN Southern Otways Landcare Network WCB Western Coastal Board 4 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report 1 CORANGAMITE MARINE AND COASTAL BIODIVERSITY STRATEGY 1.1 Background Marine and coastal biodiversity is a highly valued natural attribute that requires protection from a range of current and emerging threats such as population growth and climate change. The Corangamite region has a variety of marine and coastal environments that support biodiversity and the Corangamite Catchment Management Authority (CCMA) has a responsibility to incorporate these environments into regional catchment planning processes. The development of a regional Marine and Coastal Biodiversity Strategy will provide a conduit for this to occur. Aireys Inlet Lighthouse and surrounds (photo courtesy A. Tunks) 1.2 Purpose of strategy A range of policies and plans already exist across a number of organisations involved in the management of marine and coastal biodiversity assets, and the Corangamite Marine and Coastal Biodiversity Strategy (hereafter referred to as the strategy) will refer to, rather than duplicate these. It will provide a reference point for marine and coastal policies and plans, as well as regional direction for priority management actions to assist with the long-term protection of assets. This information can also then be utilised in the renewal of broader catchment plans (Regional Catchment Strategy and Landscape Zone Action Plans) and to support applications for investment for marine and coastal biodiversity protection in the region. 1.3 Process for development The development of the strategy will include an inventory of management arrangements, planning documents and research projects, a description of assets and threats, and an outline of management options and knowledge gaps. The risk assessment workshops were conducted so that some of this information could be gathered, with a primary focus on asset and threat identification and prioritisation. 5 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report 2 RISK ASSESSMENT WORKSHOPS 2.1 Background to risk assessment The workshops applied ecological risk assessment techniques described in the methodology, to identify and analyse risks to marine and coastal biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment is the process of estimating likelihood and consequence of identified threats on plants, animals and ecosystems of ecological value. It provides a basis for comparing and ranking risks, so attention can be focused on the most severe risks first. 2.2 Purpose of workshops The purpose of the workshops was to involve stakeholders in collating information, prioritising marine and coastal biodiversity assets and threats and assessing risk to assist with the preparation of the strategy. The workshops also contributed to building the capacity of attendees to assess risk and consider the complexities inherent in marine and coastal management. The structure for integration of the strategy and risk assessment workshops in CCMA planning is shown below. Regional Catchment Strategy (redevelopment) Stakeholder and public comment Existing sub-strategies including Wetland Strategy, River Health Strategy and Native Vegetation Strategy, Landscape Zone Action Plans Draft Marine and Coastal Biodiversity Strategy Marine and Coastal Biodiversity Strategy 2009 RISK ASSESSSMENT WORKSHOPS OTHER INPUT List of priority assets and threats Current research projects Impacts and management actions Existing policies and plans (internal and external) Risk rankings Potential knowledge gaps Figure 1 Risk assessment workshops in the strategic context 6 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report 2.3 Scope As part of the introduction to the workshop process, the scope was outlined and it was highlighted that estuaries and coastal wetlands would not be considered as categoric assets as these are picked up in other regional strategies. It was also specified that only biodiversity (living) assets were being considered and not other coastal and marine assets such as infrastructure, historical or cultural heritage. The geographic scope included seaward to three nautical miles (state waters boundary) and inland to the extent of coastal ecological vegetation classes (EVCs) within landscape zone boundaries. 2.4 Definitions The following definitions were provided by participants: Biodiversity assets: biophysical areas or things that have high environmental value (incorporating human and natural interactions) and should be protected. The value of the asset includes ecosystem services. Ecosystem service: something that is supplied by nature and produces an otherwise unobtainable economic benefit e.g. nutrient cycling, water cycling, water filtration, recruitment of commercial species. Threat: something that can do harm to an asset Risk: the likelihood of the threat happening (and causing harm). 2.5 Structure Four risk assessment workshops were conducted in the region in March 2009 to cover the seven landscape zones with a marine and coastal component, as outlined in Table 1 and Figure 2. Table 1 Workshop location and attendance Workshop location Landscape Zone(s) Anglesea Apollo Bay Port Campbell Point Lonsdale Total Thompsons Aire and Otway Curdies and Gellibrand Bellarine and Hovells 7 No. people 10 5 8 14 37 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report Figure 2 Marine and coastal landscape zone boundaries With the exception of the Apollo Bay workshop, the following information was gathered over the course of a day for each workshop: a list of priority assets a list of priority threats an assessment of risk of individual threats to priority assets actions to reduce the impact of threats on assets risk rankings for priority assets and threats. 2.6 Participation Twenty-eight organisations/groups were invited to participate in the workshops (including several divisions within major organisations). The list of invitees was based on coastal and marine management and research networks and interest groups. The initial invitation was made via email circulated with a draft agenda. The seventeen groups represented at the workshops are presented in Table 2. The Point Lonsdale workshop attracted the highest number and most diverse group of attendees, most likely because of the greater population and urban issues within the Bellarine Landscape Zone. 8 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report Table 2 Organisations/groups represented at the risk assessment workshops. CCMA (staff and advisory members) Clifton Springs Advisory Committee Great Ocean Road Coast Committee Colac Otway Shire ANGAIR DPI (Fisheries) DSE (Coast Action/ Coastcare) Western Coastal Board DSE (Crown Land Management) 2.7 Birds Australia Barwon Coast Committee of Management Habitat Connection Parks Victoria Southern Otway Landcare Group Bellarine Catchment Network EPA – regional and state Apollo Bay Kennett River Public Reserves CoM Assumptions and limitations Risk assessment relies on the initial identification of all potentially relevant threats because failure to identify a particular threat results in its exclusion from further consideration. In qualitative risk assessment, outcomes depend on subjective judgments of the likelihood that an event will occur and the severity of its consequences. Assessments are therefore affected by the ability of people to judge probabilistic events, by their personal experience and beliefs, by cultural differences in the perception of the risk and cognitive biases. In addition, there is an assumption that it is possible to make all likelihood and consequence values explicit. When considering impacts of priority threats participants were asked to allow a 50 year time frame for climate change threats and 20 years for all others. 9 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report 3 METHODOLOGY 3.1 Facilitation All workshops were facilitated by Jennifer Lilburn from Kismet Forward, with the exception of the Aire/Otway meeting which was run by Wendy Shea, CCMA Marine and Coastal Coordinator. Because of a low number of RSVPs this workshop did not initially run through the risk assessment process, but did generate a list of priority assets and threats. However in the end there were five participants and it a risk assessment sheet was distributed as a follow-up to the meeting, and these results have been included in this report. Impacts and management options were not discussed with the Aire/Otway group. 3.2 Determining priority assets Participants were asked to comment on a pre-prepared list of marine and coastal assets and to individually identify their top six by placing stickers on the agreed list. Assets were prioritised according to those with the most votes. For each workshop the asset list and priority assets are outlined in Section 4. 3.3 Determining priority threats A list of threats was provided under the headings climate change, land management, strategic management, structural and physical, biological, commercial activities, recreational activities and pollution and waste. Participants were given the opportunity to comment on the pre-prepared list and then in pairs were asked to mark those threats that could potentially have an impact on each of the priority assets, and then individually rank their three top threats for each priority asset. In most cases three to eight priority threats were included in the actual risk assessment and others that had been identified as potential threats were also noted. A summary of priority threats and other possible threats is provided for each workshop in Section 4. 3.4 Discussion of impacts and management actions for priority threats Small groups were asked to consider possible impacts that priority threats would have on each priority asset, and then consider mitigation or management options. These are listed throughout Section 4. 3.5 Risk assessment The risk assessment methods were adapted from the Australian Standard for Risk Management, AS/NZS 4360 (SA/SNZ 2004) and from the process used by the Institute of Civil Engineers and the Faculty and Institute of Actuaries (ICE/FIA 1998). Other marine and coastal risk assessments were also referred to (Carey et al. 2007a, 2007b and Cheshire et al 2008). Appendix 1 shows the information provided to participants for the risk assessment. Participants subjectively assigned scores on a five-point scale for the likelihood of the hazard occurring, and the severity of the consequence of each priority threat. 10 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report 4 RESULTS 4.1 Thompsons Landscape Zone – Asset list Vegetation communities/habitats Vertebrate communities Coastal alkaline woodland (Moonah) Cetaceans Coastal dune scrub Threatened mammals Coastal tussock grassland Representative/iconic mammals (e.g. Water Rat, Swamp Antechinus, seals, macropods, Long-nosed Bandicoot) Coastal saltmarsh Coastal headland scrub (including coastal heathland) Shorebirds Seabirds Coastal dune scrub/coastal dune grassland mosaic Representative/iconic bird species (e.g. petrels, eagles, terns) Coastal headland scrub/coastal tussock grassland mosaic Threatened bird species (e.g. Hooded Plover, Bristlebird) Physical/structural habitats Representative/iconic reptile species (e.g. Anglesea Dragon) Sandy beaches/dunes Soil microfauna Threatened reptile species Intertidal mudflats and mangroves Representative/iconic amphibian species Intertidal reefs (including algae, kelp) Threatened amphibian species (e.g. Growling Grass Frog) Subtidal reefs (including algae, kelp & corals) Soft sediments (including and & seagrass beds, sands) Representative/iconic fish species (e.g. seadragons) Rhodolith Beds Threatened fish species Open waters (10m+ depth) Commercial and recreational species (e.g. bream, mullet) Near shore waters Rock stacks (e.g. Twelve Apostles) and offshore islands Breeding and roosting grounds Groundwater Invertebrate communities Plankton Benthic invertebrates Intertidal invertebrates Subtidal invertebrates (e.g. crayfish, abalone) Sponge meadows Terrestrial invertebrates Soil microfauna Indicator species (may be threatened, e.g. Ghost Shrimp) 11 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report 4.2 Thompsons Landscape Zone– Threats and risk rankings for priority assets Key Extreme risk ranking High risk ranking Medium risk ranking Additional identified threat but not included in risk assessment Climate change Higher terrestrial temp/ and lower rainfall Change in ocean temp, acidification Increased storm events 12 Intertidal invertebrates Rep. mammals Rep. birds Rep. amphibians Soil microflora and fauna Threatened birds Threatened mammals Saltmarsh Coastal headland scrub Breeding and roosting grounds THREAT Sea level rise Coastal alkaline woodland PRIORITY ASSET Not seen to be a threat for this asset in this location Strategic management Land management Increasing population pressure Vegetation clearing Inappropriate fire regimes Catchment practices – grazing, run-off, dairy Lack of regeneration Use of herbicides and pesticides Increased population (e.g. due to cc) Habitat fragmentation Knowledge limitations Inadequate resources/capacity Inadequate enforcement/legislation Coordination of 13 Intertidal invertebrates Rep. mammals Rep. birds Rep. amphibians Soil microflora and fauna Threatened birds Threatened mammals Saltmarsh Coastal headland scrub Breeding and roosting grounds THREAT Development Coastal alkaline woodland PRIORITY ASSET Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report Biological Structural and physical Dredging, construction, structural barriers, exploration Landslides Acid Sulphate Soils Bore water harvesting – aquifers (unknown impacts) Land based coastal erosion Pest plants and animals Removal of timber and native flora Illegal fishing 14 Intertidal invertebrates Rep. mammals Rep. birds Rep. amphibians Soil microflora and fauna Threatened birds Threatened mammals Saltmarsh Coastal headland scrub Breeding and roosting grounds THREAT planning Community awareness, attitudes, behaviour Poor/inadequate management Flow regimes (estuaries) Coastal alkaline woodland PRIORITY ASSET Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report Reduced food source Wildfire Recreational activities Commercial activities Shipping Fishing (incl. bycatch & excessive take) Aquaculture Lack of awareness of impacts Bait and shellfish collection Dogs and vehicles on the beach Fishing – (incl. bycatch and excessive take) Boating and mooring Wildlife tours Beach access (cars 15 Intertidal invertebrates Rep. mammals Rep. birds Rep. amphibians Soil microflora and fauna Threatened birds Threatened mammals Saltmarsh Coastal headland scrub Breeding and roosting grounds THREAT Marine Pests Coastal alkaline woodland PRIORITY ASSET Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report Pollution and waste 16 Intertidal invertebrates Rep. mammals Rep. birds Rep. amphibians Soil microflora and fauna Threatened birds Threatened mammals Saltmarsh Coastal headland scrub Breeding and roosting grounds THREAT and people) Bycatch High number of people in a concentrated area for events e.g. Bells Diseases/pathogens e.g. abalone virus Rupturing of underwater pipelines Stormwater and sewage management Noise and light pollution (helicopters, jetty lights) Oil spills and contaminants Litter incl. entanglement Coastal alkaline woodland PRIORITY ASSET Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report 4.3 Thompsons Landscape Zone – Risk assessment summary L=Likelihood, C=Consequence, R= Risk ranking. Refer to Appendix 1. Priority assets Priority threats Potential impacts L C R 1.Coastal alkaline woodland Pest plants and animals Direct damage and fragmentation 5 4 E 3 4 E 3 4 E 5 4 E 3 4 E 3 3 H 3 3 H 5 5 E 4 4 E 4 4 E 4 4 E Change of composition Competition Fire risk Development Encroachment and reduction in habitat Damage to quality and structure Poor/inadequate management Lack of enforcement Poor planning and design Incremental/cumulative impacts and damage 2.Coastal headland scrub (note coastal heathland included in this EVC) Pest plants and animals Loss in species diversity, condition and health Development Habitat modification Increased weed distribution and food chain effects Minimal impacts in protected areas Poor/inadequate management Lack of continuity in staff and funding Loss of motivation - overwhelming scale of threats e.g. weeds Inadequate planning/ uncertain future management Reliance on volunteers for long-term maintenance 3.Coastal saltmarsh Inappropriate fire regimes Unknown effect on biodiversity, needs monitoring Sea level rise/coastal erosion Loss of habitat and ability to migrate Higher temps/lower rainfall Altered hydrological regimes Lack of planning and resources to manage post-burn impacts Limited adaptive capacity within sea-level rise timeframes Stress to plant community through changes to structure Altered fire regimes of fringing vegetation Emerging pest plants and animals Poor/inadequate management Ambiguities re tenure, priorities, estuary openings etc Knowledge gaps Limited resourcing and capacity Lack of appreciation for work undertaken by volunteers Development Less ability to migrate and loss of habitat Nutrient and stormwater pollution Pest and domestic animals Access issues and trampling 17 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report Priority assets Priority threats Potential impacts L C R 4 3 H 4 4 E 4 4 E 3 3 H 4 4 E 4 4 E 3 4 E Habitat fragmentation 4 4 E Vegetation clearing 4 4 E Pest plants and animals 3 3 H 5 5 E Altered hydrological regimes Pest plants and animals Reduction in biodiversity Fox and feral cat predation on small native fauna Pest plants invading buffer communities New and emerging weeds 4.Breeding and roosting grounds Habitat fragmentation Reduced opportunity and access for populations Competition within and between species Increased predation and reduced survival rates Pest plants and animals Predation Food source reduction Disturbance Vegetation clearing Habitat loss Fragmentation Reduced viability as a breeding ground and suitable habitat Increased fauna mortality 5.Threatened mammals Habitat fragmentation Reduced opportunity and access for populations Competition within and between species Increased predation and reduced survival rates Pest plants and animals Predation Food source reduction Disturbance Vegetation clearing# Reduction in area Fragmentation Reduced viability as a breeding ground and suitable habitat Increased fauna mortality 6.Threatened birds 7.Soil microflora and fauna Knowledge limitations* Lose it before we know what it is Higher temps/lower rainfall* Change in composition and level of activity 4 4 E Vegetation clearing*# Change in composition, numbers and/or mass 3 3 H Uncertainties as to what is appropriate management Impact of distribution/dispersal 18 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report Priority assets Priority threats Potential impacts L C R 8.Representat ive amphibians Higher temps/lower rainfall Reduced water and increased heat stress 5 4 E Development# Habitat loss and fragmentation, including from pest plants 4 4 E 4 4 E 4 4 E 5 4 E 4 4 E 3 4 E 4 4 E 4 4 E 4 3 H 5 5 E New and emerging pests and pathogens Predation by domestic animals Increased nutrients and decreased water quality Road kills Habitat fragmentation Impacts on dispersal, breeding, reproduction and genetic viability Increased predation Poor/inadequate management Resourcing Limited protection and management Knowledge limitations (particularly climate change) 9.Representat ive birds Pest plants and animals Disturbance, trampling and predation of adults and eggs by dogs, foxes, cats, horses, gulls, rats, ravens and rabbits Disturbance from weed control Changing habitat structure Providing harbor for pest animals Vegetation clearing Reduced habitat, food source and shelter Development# Reduced habitat Increases disturbance by weeds Increases disturbance and numbers of pest plants and animals More rubbish and threat of entanglement 10.Represent ative mammals Habitat fragmentation# Reduced opportunity and access Competition Predation – pests, domestic, natural Reduced food and cover Pest plants and animals Predation Loss/degradation of habitat Competition Disease Poor/inadequate management Lack of enforcement/protection Poor planning Lack of funding 11.Intertidal invertebrates Higher temps/lower rainfall Increased animal stress Limited ability to migrate and adapt to other/new reef areas New and emerging marine pests Changes to ecological community (structure, diversity) 19 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report Priority assets Priority threats Potential impacts Bait and shellfish collection* Sea level rise/coastal erosion Impact of storm events? L C R 4 4 E 5 3 E 4 4 E Limited ability to migrate and adapt to other/new reef areas Carbon impacts/acidification Potential smothering of rocky habitat Marine pests* Removal of individuals from local/exposed rocks (increased consumption) Impacts on reef ecology and coastal and marine predators * indicates where some participants were not confident of making a judgment and either did not provide a number or provided a guesstimate # indicates where range in likelihood or consequence across pairs was greater than 2 and requires further exploration 20 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report 4.4 Aire/Otway Landscape Zones – Asset list Vegetation communities/habitats Physical/structural habitats Coastal alkaline woodland (Moonah) Coastal dune scrub Coastal tussock grassland Coastal saltmarsh Coastal headland scrub (including coastal heathland) Coastal dune scrub/coastal dune grassland mosaic Coastal headland scrub/coastal tussock grassland mosaic Sandy beaches/dunes Intertidal mudflats and mangroves Intertidal reefs (including algae, kelp) Subtidal reefs (including algae, kelp & corals) Soft sediments (including and & seagrass beds) Rhodolith Beds Open waters (10m+ depth) Near shore waters Rock stacks (e.g. Twelve Apostles) and offshore islands Breeding and roosting grounds 21 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report 4.5 Aire/Otway Landscape Zones – Threats and risk rankings for priority assets Key Extreme risk ranking High risk ranking Medium risk ranking Additional identified threat but not included in risk assessment Land manage ment Climate change Increasing population pressure Vegetation clearing 22 Breeding and roosting grounds aquatic Breeding and roosting grounds terrestrial Near shore waters Sandy beaches Subtidal reefs Dune scrub Headland scrub THREAT Sea level rise, increased storm events and sea surge Higher terrestrial temperature and lower rainfall Change in ocean parameters – temp, acidification, light penetration Development Intertidal reefs PRIORITY ASSET Not seen to be a threat for this asset in this location Wildfire Catchment practices – grazing, run-off, dairy, tillage Lack of regeneration – algae, molluscs Use of herbicides and pesticides Salt burn off Development Strategic management Knowledge limitations Inadequate resources/capacity Inadequate enforcement and/or legislation Coordination of planning Community awareness, attitudes and behaviour 23 Breeding and roosting grounds aquatic Breeding and roosting grounds terrestrial Near shore waters Sandy beaches Subtidal reefs Headland scrub Dune scrub Intertidal reefs THREAT Inappropriate fire regimes PRIORITY ASSET Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report Structural and physical Acid Sulphate Soils Biological Pest plants and animals incl koalas Removal of timber and native flora incl beachcombing and driftwood Illegal fishing Marine Pests incl algae Commercial activities Outfall pests e.g. filamentous algae, E.Coli Shipping Fishing (including bycatch and excessive take) Aquaculture 24 Breeding and roosting grounds aquatic Breeding and roosting grounds terrestrial Near shore waters Sandy beaches Subtidal reefs Dune scrub Headland scrub THREAT Flow regimes (estuaries) incl artificial openings Dredging, construction, structural barriers, exploration Landslides Intertidal reefs PRIORITY ASSET Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report Recreational activities Dogs and vehicles on the beach Fishing – (inc bycatch and excessive take) Boating and mooring Wildlife tours incl rockpool walks Beach access (cars and people) Pollution and waste High number of people in a concentrated area for events e.g. Bells Diseases/pathogens e.g. abalone virus Rupturing of underwater pipelines Stormwater and sewage management Noise and light pollution (helicopters, foreshore lighting) Oil spills and contaminants Litter 25 Breeding and roosting grounds aquatic Breeding and roosting grounds terrestrial Near shore waters Sandy beaches Subtidal reefs Dune scrub Headland scrub THREAT Bait and shellfish collection incl worms Intertidal reefs PRIORITY ASSET Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report 4.6 Aire/Otway Landscape Zones – Risk assessment summary L=Likelihood, C=Consequence, R= Risk ranking. Refer to Appendix 1. Priority assets Priority threats L C R 1.Intertidal reefs Sea level rise and increased storm events 4 4 E Bait and shellfish collection 4 3 H Inadequate resources/capacity 4 3 H Knowledge limitations 4 4 E Community awareness, attitudes and behaviour 3 3 H Diseases/pathogens e.g. abalone virus 3 4 E Pest plants and animals 4 4 E Increasing population pressure 4 3 H Sea level rise and increased storm events 4 4 E Development 3 3 H Inappropriate fire regimes 2 4 H Knowledge limitations 3 4 E Community awareness, attitude and behaviour 4 3 H Beach access 4 3 H Pest plants and animals 4 4 E Development 3 3 H Increasing population pressure 4 3 H Inappropriate fire regimes 2 4 H Knowledge limitations 3 4 E Sea level rise and increased storm events 3 4 E Change in ocean parameters 4 4 E Sea level rise and increased storm events 4 4 E Knowledge limitations 4 3 H Diseases/pathogens 3 4 E Inadequate resources/capacity 4 3 H Community awareness, attitudes and behaviour 4 3 H Commercial fishing 3 3 H Recreational fishing 3 3 H Sea level rise and increased storm events 4 3 H 2.Dune scrub 3.Headland scrub 4.Subtidal reefs 5.Sandy beaches 26 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report Priority assets 6.Near shore waters 7.Breeding and roosting grounds aquatic 8.Breeding and roosting grounds terrestrial Priority threats L C R Dogs and vehicles on the beach 3 3 H Pest plants and animals 4 3 H Knowledge limitations 4 3 H Structural barriers 2 3 M Oil spills and contaminants 1 4 H Change in ocean parameters 4 3 H Sea level rise and increased storm events 4 3 H Community awareness, attitudes and behaviour 3 3 H Commercial fishing 2 3 M Diseases/pathogens 3 3 H Increasing population pressure 5 3 E Knowledge limitations 4 3 H Inadequate resources/capacity 4 3 H Inadequate enforcement and/or legislation 3 3 H Sea level rise and increased storm events 4 4 E Change in ocean parameters 4 4 E Knowledge limitations 4 3 H Inadequate resources/capacity 4 3 H Marine pests 3 4 E Recreational fishing 3 3 H Sea level rise and increased storm events 4 4 E Pest plants and animals 4 3 H Dogs and vehicles on the beach 4 4 E Community awareness, attitudes and behaviour 4 3 H Inadequate resources/capacity 4 3 H Change in ocean parameters 4 3 H Removal of timber and native flora (beachcombing) 3 3 H 27 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report 4.7 Curdies/Gellibrand Landscape Zones – Asset list Vegetation communities/habitats Physical/structural habitats Coastal alkaline woodland (Moonah) Sand heathland Coastal tussock grassland Coastal saltmarsh Coastal headland scrub Coastal dune scrub/coastal dune grassland mosaic Damp heath scrub High energy sandy beaches Intertidal mudflats and mangroves Intertidal reefs (including algae) Subtidal reefs (including algae) Soft sediments (including sand & seagrass beds) Rhodolith Beds Open waters (10m+ depth) Near shore waters Rock stacks (e.g. Twelve Apostles) and offshore islands Breeding and roosting grounds including coastal caves 28 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report 4.8 Curdies/Gellibrand Landscape Zones - Threats and risk rankings for priority assets Key Extreme risk ranking High risk ranking Medium risk ranking Additional identified threat but not included in risk assessment Climate change 29 Coastal dune scrub/coastal dune grassland mosaic Coastal headland scrub Alkaline woodland Coastal saltmarsh Open waters Soft sediments Breeding and roosting grounds Subtidal reefs Intertidal reefs THREAT Sea level rise, increased storm events Higher terrestrial temperature and lower rainfall Change in ocean parameters – temp, acidification PRIORITY ASSET Not seen to be a threat for this asset in this location Increasing population pressure Land management Vegetation clearing Inappropriate fire regimes Wildfire Catchment practices – grazing, run-off, dairy Lack of regeneration – algae, molluscs Use of herbicides and pesticides Potential wave/tidal power infrastructure Mineral extraction Strategi c manag ement Knowledge limitations Inadequate resources/capacity 30 Coastal dune scrub/coastal dune grassland mosaic Coastal headland scrub Alkaline woodland Coastal saltmarsh Open waters Soft sediments Breeding and roosting grounds Subtidal reefs Intertidal reefs THREAT Development PRIORITY ASSET Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report Structural and physical Dredging, construction, structural barriers, exploration Landslides Acid Sulphate Soils Artificial estuary openings Biological Pest plants and animals incl koalas Removal of timber and native flora incl beachcombing and driftwood Marine Pests incl algae Outfall pests e.g. filamentous algae, E.Coli 31 Coastal dune scrub/coastal dune grassland mosaic Coastal headland scrub Alkaline woodland Coastal saltmarsh Open waters Soft sediments Breeding and roosting grounds Subtidal reefs Intertidal reefs THREAT Inadequate enforcement and/or legislation Coordination of planning and action Community awareness, attitudes and behaviour Flow regimes incl water extraction PRIORITY ASSET Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report Recreational activities Commercial activities Fishing (including bycatch and excessive take and methodology) Aquaculture Fishing equipment incl discarded equipment Bait and shellfish collection incl worms Dogs and vehicles on the beach Fishing – (inc bycatch and excessive take) Boating and mooring Wildlife tours incl rockpool walks Beach access (cars and people) High number of people in a concentrated area for pulse events Scuba/snorkelling/surfing 32 Coastal dune scrub/coastal dune grassland mosaic Coastal headland scrub Alkaline woodland Coastal saltmarsh Open waters Soft sediments Breeding and roosting grounds Subtidal reefs Intertidal reefs THREAT Shipping PRIORITY ASSET Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report Pollution and waste Stormwater and sewage management Noise and light pollution (helicopters, foreshore lighting) Oil spills and contaminants Litter incl drift litter 33 Coastal dune scrub/coastal dune grassland mosaic Coastal headland scrub Alkaline woodland Coastal saltmarsh Open waters Soft sediments Breeding and roosting grounds Subtidal reefs Intertidal reefs THREAT Diseases/pathogens e.g. abalone virus Rupturing of underwater pipelines PRIORITY ASSET Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report 4.9 Curdies/Gellibrand Landscape Zones – Risk assessment summary L=Likelihood, C=Consequence, R= Risk ranking. Refer to Appendix 1. Priority assets Priority threats Impacts L C R 1.Intertidal reefs Sea level rise and increased storm events* Change in water depth (photo and temp) 3 4 E 3 4 E 4 3 H 3 4 E 4 3 H 3 3 H 4 4 E 3 4 E 2 4 H Species loss/migration and shift in spatial distribution Physical disruption Max extinction Change in ocean parameters* Changes in algae production and food web Increasing population pressure Trampling and destruction (physical and species) Shift in species distribution, density, biodiversity Increased harvesting and recreational use Increased impacts of catchment based activities and uses 2.Subtidal reefs Change in ocean parameters* Loss of species habitat Acidity causing structural change to reef Decrease in fishery populations – Total Allowable Catch and loss of revenue Recreational fishing Overfishing leading to reduced pops and new species dominating (e.g. sea urchins) Lead contamination Anchor damage 3.Breeding and roosting grounds (incl. coastal caves) Sea level rise and increased storm events* Wave energy change may have a positive or negative impact on species and physical structure Pest plants and animals# Predation reducing population Decrease in number of fishing days may have positive impact on species Species displacement Change in breeding cycles and age classes Disease Food web interruptions or breakdown Sea level rise and increased storm events#* Beach destruction Inundation e.g. beaches, saltmarsh, estuaries Habitat destruction Greater potential for pests Potential tipping point for threatened species Development Introduction of domestic animals and pests and diseases Destruction of sites Impacts of people Air, noise, light pollution and litter 34 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report Priority assets Priority threats Impacts L C R 3 4 E 3 3 H 3 3 H 3 3 H 3 4 E 4 3 H 4 3 H 3 4 E 3 4 E 4 3 H Secondary impacts – poor or increased drainage 4.Soft sediments Change in ocean parameters* Potential habitat change/loss Change in species distribution Interrupted breeding cycles Change in food web Increased pests and diseases? Sea level rise and increased storm events * Inundation Displacement/relocation Introduction of toxins Increased turbidity Commercial fishing** Damage to sediment habitats Litter, leading to displacement of flora and fauna or injury Interruption to food web and change in biodiversity Dredging, structural barriers etc. Turbidity Relocation of sediments and death to species such as potty sea horses Interruption to coastal process e.g. longshore drift 5.Open waters Change in ocean parameters#* Change in plankton levels and impacts on food chain Change in shells of crustaceans and molluscs and impact on food chain Temp rise = dead zones, algal blooms and symbiotics becoming opportunistic Lots of unknowns Knowledge limitations# Current impacts and complexity of systems Commercial fishing Physical impact of infrastructure e.g. ghost nets, longlines and possibility of entanglement Future impacts Resource management of fish stock e.g. sustainability – there are knowledge limitations, inadequate enforcement of regulations and resourcing of governing bodies. 6.Coastal saltmarsh Sea level rise and increased storm events* Loss of saltmarsh area as habitat cannot migrate Erosion of vegetation and succession Protection works leading to focused impacts Increased sediment export Increasing population pressure Visitor impacts Compaction from vehicles Increasing political pressure for drainage works Lack of coordinated planning and Inability to respond to development/natural pressure Political interference with good management agreements 35 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report Priority assets 7.Alkaline woodland Priority threats Impacts action Critical mass of efforts not realised, leading to ‘wasted’ efforts or few Catchment practices Sedimentation increase Pest plants and animals Bridal creeper – smothers canopy and reduces biodiversity L C R 4 3 H 4 4 E Herbicides and pesticides and inappropriate application Understory management practices Competes with regeneration potential Sea level rise and increased storm events#* Recruitment interception (slow growing) 3 3 H Increasing terrestrial temps and lower rainfall Less rain, less food source 3 3* H Wildfire* Sensitivity of species 2 3 M 4 3 H 2 4 H 3 3 H 3 4 E Limited remnant coverage therefore 100% loss potential Loss of understorey scrub (Bristlebird habitat) 8.Coastal headland scrub Beach access* Erosion Access to undisturbed sites Dogs and domestic animals Pest plants and animals Development Greater use causing habitat loss Physical damage from works and construction Habitat loss leading to migration or extinction Pest plants and animals introduced via building materials Increasing population pressure* Habitat loss or extinction of species Higher number of dogs (domestic animals) Increased pest plants and animals 9.Coastal dune scrub/coastal dune grassland mosaic Sea level rise and increased storm events* Potential loss of dune systems where movement not possible Loss of connectivity of coastal landscape Exposure and damage to vegetation communities Community awareness, attitudes and behaviour* Needs to focus on all the potential impacts of increasing pop pressure outlined below 3 3 H Increasing population pressure Beach access and damage from 4wds, bikes, sandboarding, surfers, fishermen, campers 3 3 H Dogs and litter etc impact on flora/ fauna Increased fire risk 36 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report 4.10 Bellarine/Hovells Landscape Zones – Asset list Vegetation communities/habitats Physical/structural habitats Coastal alkaline woodland (Moonah) Sand heathland Coastal tussock grassland Coastal saltmarsh Coastal headland scrub Coastal dune scrub/coastal dune grassland mosaic Coastal headland scrub/coastal tussock grassland mosaic Damp heath scrub High energy sandy beaches Intertidal mudflats and mangroves inc. seagrass Intertidal reefs (including algae) Subtidal reefs (including algae) Soft sediments (including sand & seagrass beds) Rhodolith Beds Open waters (10m+ depth) Near shore waters Rock stacks (e.g. Twelve Apostles) and islands 37 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report 4.11 Bellarine/Hovells Landscape Zones - Threat and risk rankings for priority assets Key Extreme risk ranking High risk ranking Medium risk ranking Additional identified threat but not included in risk assessment Climate change Increased storm events Higher terrestrial temperature Lower rainfall Change in ocean temperature 38 Rhodolith beds Open waters High energy sandy beaches Subtidal reefs Intertidal reefs Near shore waters Coastal alkaline woodland Coastal saltmarsh Soft sediments Coastal dune scrub/coastal dune grassland mosaic THREAT Sea level rise Intertidal mudflats/man groves incl. seagrass PRIORITY ASSET Not seen to be a threat for this asset in this location High rainfall pulse events Land management Potential changing currents Development Increasing population pressure Native vegetation clearing Inappropriate fire regimes Wildfire Catchment practices – grazing, run-off, dairy Lack of regeneration – algae, molluscs Use of herbicides and pesticides Potential wave/tidal power infrastructure 39 Rhodolith beds Open waters High energy sandy beaches Subtidal reefs Intertidal reefs Near shore waters Coastal alkaline woodland Coastal saltmarsh Soft sediments Coastal dune scrub/coastal dune grassland mosaic THREAT Ocean acidification Intertidal mudflats/man groves incl. seagrass PRIORITY ASSET Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report Weed removal Salinity changes (water) Strategic management Knowledge limitations Inadequate resources/capacity Inadequate enforcement/legislation Lack of coordination of planning and action Political will/inertia Community awareness Community attitudes Community behaviour Str uc tur al an d ph ysi ca l Flow regimes 40 Rhodolith beds Open waters High energy sandy beaches Subtidal reefs Intertidal reefs Near shore waters Coastal alkaline woodland Coastal saltmarsh Soft sediments Coastal dune scrub/coastal dune grassland mosaic THREAT Mineral extraction Intertidal mudflats/man groves incl. seagrass PRIORITY ASSET Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report Acid Sulphate Soils Changes to groundwater Biological Pest plants and animals Removal of timber and native flora Marine Pests Failure to recognise biological relationships Sleeper species Emergence of new pests Com merc ial activ ities Shipping Fishing (including 41 Rhodolith beds Open waters High energy sandy beaches Subtidal reefs Intertidal reefs Near shore waters Coastal alkaline woodland Coastal saltmarsh Soft sediments Coastal dune scrub/coastal dune grassland mosaic THREAT Dredging, construction, structural barriers, exploration Landslides Intertidal mudflats/man groves incl. seagrass PRIORITY ASSET Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report Industry discharge Recreational activities Bait and shellfish collection Dogs on the beach Vehicles on the beach Fishing – (inc bycatch and excessive take) Boating and mooring Wildlife tours Beach access Horses High number of people in a concentrated area for 42 Rhodolith beds Open waters High energy sandy beaches Subtidal reefs Intertidal reefs Near shore waters Coastal alkaline woodland Coastal saltmarsh Soft sediments Coastal dune scrub/coastal dune grassland mosaic THREAT bycatch and excessive take and methodology) Aquaculture Intertidal mudflats/man groves incl. seagrass PRIORITY ASSET Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report Pollution and waste Terrestrial diseases/pathogens Marine diseases and pathogens e.g. abalone virus Rupturing of underwater pipelines Stormwater and sewage management Noise and light pollution (helicopters, foreshore lighting) Oil spills and contaminants Macro-waste dumping (e.g. old ships) Litter 43 Rhodolith beds Open waters High energy sandy beaches Subtidal reefs Intertidal reefs Near shore waters Coastal alkaline woodland Coastal saltmarsh Soft sediments Coastal dune scrub/coastal dune grassland mosaic THREAT pulse events Tourism Intertidal mudflats/man groves incl. seagrass PRIORITY ASSET Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report 4.12 Bellarine/Hovells Landscape Zones – Risk assessment summary L=Likelihood, C=Consequence, R= Risk ranking. Refer to Appendix 3. Priority assets Priority threats Impacts L C R 1.Intertidal mudflats and mangroves incl. seagrass Sea level rise* Inundation levels modified causing mangroves to drown, changes in seagrass composition and mangrove migration 5 4 H 4 3 H 3 3 H 5 3 E 4 3 H 4 3 H Catchment practices* 4 3 H Stormwater#* 4 3 H 4 4 E 4 4 E Inappropriate management responses (not based on previous knowledge) Inappropriate timeframes for species migration and/or geographical adaptation Catchment practices* Increased sedimentation and nutrient supply Changes to flow regimes Pollution Stormwater/se wage# Increased sedimentation and nutrient supply Changes to flow regimes Pollution 2.Soft sediments Sea level rise Impacts on flora and fauna species and loss of intertidal communities Changed water temperatures and light penetration Changed biodiversity range, ecosystems and substrate Impacts on terrestrial communities with no room for migration Dredging, construction, exploration# Dredging – loss of habitat and altered sand shift Decrease in fauna species in sediment – potential loss of food source and habitat Contamination from spoil disposal Sedimentation and drift Industry discharge#* Infauna impacts – changed habitat Algae impacts – smothering and light penetration Decreased water quality and possible contaminants 3.Coastal saltmarsh Increased temp Increased mortality and loss of overall habitat Hypersalinity Increasing acid sulphate as saltmarshes dry/change Development* More landfill/infill/infrastructure Loss of habitat with no retreat 44 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report Priority assets Priority threats Impacts L C R 5 4 E 4 3 H 4 4 E Increased stormwater effects Sea level rise Inundation Species change leading to community change Infrastructure impeding flows to saltmarsh Catchment practices* Lack of adequate fencing leads to incursions on saltmarsh Runoff from agricultural activities reducing water quality Lack of integration and effective pest programs 4.Coastal dune scrub/coasta l dune grassland mosaic Development* Loss of corridors Increased access and physical damage and disturbance Increased risk from pests Unsustainable town planning e.g. stormwater and clearing Pest plants Reduction in native species and habitat 5 4 E Storm events* As for sea level rise 4 4 E Sea level rise* Inundation and reduced habitat 5 4 E 3 3 H 4 4 E 4 4 E 4 4 E Erosion and destabilisation Increased dune mobility Habitat squeezed between rising sea level and development Beach access* Physical damage from cars, trampling and erosion Disturbance to flora and fauna More introduced species 5.Coastal alkaline woodland Vegetation clearing* Increased edge effects, fragmentation and pest species Microclimate changes – wind, light, temp Erosion, increased runoff and reduced water quality Change in fire regimes Increased accessibility leading to population effects Development* Clearance – loss of vegetation, habitat and species Pollution and runoff from pesticides and nutrients Weed invasion and domestic animals Changed expectations for management Loss in perceived/aesthetic value Increasing population pressure* Change in expectations for management (access, snakes, fire, domestic animals) Inappropriate community behaviour – rubbish, motorbikes, vandalism 45 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report Priority assets Priority threats Impacts L C R 4 4 E 4 4 E 4 3 H 3 3 H 3 3 H loss in perceived/aesthetic value Lack of coordinated planning* Inconsistency in management, protection and enforcement Increased loss/degradation Loss in perceived value 6.Near shore waters Marine pests#* Habitat reduction Competition and predation Disruption of natural ecological processes –localised but possible widespread impacts Commercial fishing* (‘limited’ activity in EMC) Overfishing impacts on sustainability of species Bycatch 7.Intertidal reefs 8.Subtidal reefs Catchment practices* Reduced water quality Stormwater and sewage management# * Decreased water quality Marine pests* Can occur currently however may be exposed to more pests reliant on a marine environment (100%) 4 4 E Sea level rise#* Reefs more regularly submerged or all the time 5 4 E Change in ocean temperature Impacts on types, quantities and composition of species 5 4 E Change in ocean temperature#* Loss of some species through changed ecosystems 5 4 E Change in ocean acidity* Loss or change in biodiversity i.e. corals 5 4 E Marine pests* Loss of endemic species and changed balance of species 4 3 H 4 4 E 5 4 E Pollution and chemical contamination Pollutants, toxins and litter Potential to change structure of reef (e.g. increased sand deposition) (note increased air temps leads to increased desiccation) Limited distribution of species Potential for disease 9.High energy sandy beaches Storm events Loss of small scale habitat i.e. evcs Erosion rate and locations increases Sea level rise Movement of sand dunes Inappropriate management responses due to uncertainty Decreased beach habitat 46 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report Priority assets Priority threats Impacts L C R Beach access* Erosion (blowouts) 4 3 H 3 3 H 5 4 E 5 4 E 4 3 H Decreased beach habitats Developments #* Decreased habitat Increasing pressure for infrastructure Native vegetation pressure Increased surface runoff 10. Open waters Change in ocean temperature#* Currents and upwellings changing leading to species and community changes Acidification* Impact on CaCO3 organisms e.g. plankton, molluscs and crustaceans Increased stratification Effect on reef and limestone structures Commercial fishing* Changing community structure Detritus (nets/gear) Impacts on non-target species Habitat destruction 11. Rhodolith beds Change in ocean acidity# Loss or change in function 5 4 E Marine pests# Potential direct damage 4 3 H Knowledge limitations# Inadvertent damage and impacts 3 3 H Knowledge not being communicated ** where some pairs were not confident of making a judgment and either did not provide a number or provided a guesstimate # Make a note of where range in likelihood or consequence across pairs was greater than 2 and explore 47 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report 4.13 Possible Management Actions Threat Management actions identified Pest plants and animals Community education and weed control by community groups Push for priority weed status for some species Consistent management approach by different land managers and adjoining landholders Continuing education for dogs and cats as well as enforcement and prominent signage for dogs on beaches. Other options – Maremma dogs, fencing, poisoning, trapping, shooting, biological control, pesticides, surveys, containment of spread of weeds, revegetation Development Planning scheme overlays of coastal biodiversity priorities Allow space for future risks e.g. sea level rise and provide buffer zones around sensitive areas Awareness building – council, proponents Enforcement of permit conditions Rationalise use of coastal infrastructure Poor/inadequate management Lack of coordinated planning and action Rationalisation of responsibility and integration from all levels of government Increased contact/personal support from land managers to volunteer groups Improved management systems that incorporate monitoring and evaluation Allocation of resources to key values and risks Education and enforcement Inappropriate fire regimes Better define the needs for ecological fire, relative to fire protection Attempt to understand what is appropriate Build town planning around fire protection plans and risks, incorporating specifications Collate current scientific knowledge on ecological burning and educate the public Sea level rise/coastal erosion/increased storm events Implement Victorian Coastal Strategy and Future Coasts recommendations Assess current risk and identify adaptation/mitigation and retreat options Promote the importance of biodiversity RD&I on storm surge frequency, amplitude and probability – regional scale but with local resolution Retrofit existing flooding erosion tools Modelling/mapping areas of impact regionally for an analysis of vegetation communities considered highly threatened Identify opportunities for habitats to move to higher elevations and utilise planning schemes as a mechanism to protect retreat areas Improve risk assessment when planning for infrastructure in highly threatened areas 48 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report Threat Management actions identified Higher temps/lower rainfall Implement Victorian Coastal Strategy and Future Coasts recommendations Look at protecting refuge habitats for communities Prepare for erosion events on dry soils Prepare for revegetation with dryland species Prepare for control of dryland invasive species Habitat fragmentation Restore fragmented coastal areas to allow connectivity Prevent/minimise fragmentation in new works Require offsets of degraded areas Define and resource best practice management in planning, design and implementation Identify priority corridors Monitor cumulative impacts Strategically plan future needs for infrastructure and works Vegetation clearing Enforcement of native vegetation regulations Carbon offsetting Communication of vegetation controls (shires) and indigenous vegetation values Coordinated action Knowledge limitations Define what has been done and what needs to be done Research, monitoring and communicate findings to land managers Attract funding for research through partnerships Bait and shellfish collection Communication strategy to young people and visitors Enforcement, increased compliance and continue 13FISH approach More staff/authorised officers able to enforce fisheries offences Review and increase penalties Marine pests Education about identification of marine pests to enable reporting of new occurrences Support monitoring and research programs e.g. Seasearch Community awareness, attitudes and behaviour Provide a range of opportunities to become actively engaged such as Coast Action/Coastcare, international student volunteers, family access, integrate with other community services through footy, markets Beach access Minimise wind erosion and sediment supply to near shore Rationalise access and adapt to population needs Ensure that vegetation is managed Signs for direction and advice re dogs etc Awareness re likelihood of pest plants and animals being attracted to access points. 49 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report Threat Management actions identified Wildfire Improve knowledge of fire regimes on coastal evc’s. Identification of no development zones to assist fire management Improved resourcing to apply appropriate fire management Community education Reduce fuel loads Catchment practices Urban – restricting and controlling stormwater – litter, nutrients Rural – education, fencing, revegetate waterways, reduced fertiliser use, retain native veg, use of watering points Bush – maintain natural state, reduce weeds, pest plant and animal control Commercial fishing Compliance and enforcement Education Modified fishing behaviour and practices Research Dredging, structural barriers etc. Improved strategies, policies, planning, legislation, integrated catchment nrm, education and enforcement Consider environmental impact of structures Change in ocean parameters Further research Recreational fishing Improved education on potential impacts Adaptation and education in readiness for future Develop a shared understanding of ecological values of asset Regulation is in place but need resourcing of policy, enforcement and prosecution areas Bag limit review based on real data – to determine catch effort and Total Allowable Catch Monitoring of key indicators Dissolving bags that biodegrade Strategic land-sea access points for boating facilities, waste and services Increasing population pressure Designate population hubs e.g. coastal settlement framework Full integration of VCS into council planning processes 50 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report 5 DISCUSSION 5.1 Categorisation of assets There were some inconsistencies with the development of asset lists. The workshop participants were given the opportunity to comment on a pre-prepared list. There were several categories that could have been used – from genus to kingdom level (e.g. plants and animals), to species groups (threatened, vulnerable, indicator, ecological vegetation classes) or broad habitat and community types. For the first workshop for the Thompsons Landscape Zone the list included both species groups and habitat types. It was found that several categories could include the same asset, creating some confusion. Also, having a large number of categories meant that only a smaller proportion were chosen as priorities and the risk assessment process was much more limited. For the following workshops the list was refined to habitat types (such as intertidal reefs) and communities (such as ecological vegetation communities or EVCs), on the basis that individual species could be attributed to one of these categories and that by protecting the habitat, the species would be protected as well. Although this concept was adopted for the remaining three workshops, there was still some concern that focusing on habitat protection did not necessarily address the needs of species living in that habitat, and there was an added difficulty of classifying marine habitats and communities. There was much discussion about the lack of an equivalent to EVCs in the marine environment. For example, rhodolith beds, seagrass beds, sponge meadows and kelp forests are all examples of informal marine communities that could fall under a number of marine habitats that were used in this assessment, such as intertidal reefs and soft sediments. Similarly, breeding and roosting grounds were an identified habitat type in some workshops and in others these were incorporated into other categories. In short, it is difficult to make direct comparisons of priority assets across workshops because the categories used to prioritise were different for each, and the recognition of marine habitat types is not uniform. 5.2 Priority threats Generally there were no issues with the categorisation of threats although at each workshop some different threats were added that were specific to the area. In the Bellarine/Hovells workshop, threats such as ‘sea level rise and increased storm events’ were split to allow distinction between impacts. In the Thompsons workshop there was a desire to include poor/inadequate management as a separate threat category that considered a suite of factors such as lack of coordination, political will, decision-making processes, resources and capacity. This emerged as a priority threat from this workshop but was not carried through to other workshops as a separate category as it was felt that it was too broad and that the threats identified within the strategic management category were more meaningful. 51 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report The greatest threats for priority assets in each landscape zone have been outlined in the Section 4 but individual comments on these are not within the scope of this report. However this information could be valuable for land managers in these areas. Instead the priority threats across all landscape zones have been assessed (Appendix 2), and almost all were ranked as either high or extreme, which was expected given that only those threats thought to be priorities were ranked. The highest ranking and greatest number of responses were attributed to climate change, pest plants and animals, and habitat fragmentation. With fewer responses but also an extreme rating were vegetation clearing, inadequate management and planning, diseases and pathogens, bait and shellfish collection and dogs and vehicles on the beach. Appendices 3, 4 and 5 show a breakdown of all potential threats (not just priority threats) across marine assets, coastal assets and fauna assets, and this provides a broader assessment of what issues are of greatest concern for each of these categories. The greatest threats to marine assets were seen to be: climate change (sea level rise, storm events and changes in ocean parameters) catchment practices marine pests limited knowledge. Not surprisingly, recreational and commercial fishing, oil spills and stormwater and sewage management were also considerable marine biodiversity threats and should be a focus for management actions. The greatest threats to coastal assets were seen to be: climate change (sea level rise and storm events) development and population pressure vegetation clearing pest plants and animals limited knowledge. The greatest threats to marine and coastal fauna were associated with: climate change vegetation clearing inadequate management pest plants and animals. 52 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report 5.3 Risk assessment limitations Some concern was raised about the value of the risk assessment data due to the subjective nature of the process, as well as under-representation in some areas and the variable knowledge amongst a small number of participants. However, the process was not undertaken to obtain rigorous scientific data but rather to provide an indication for the direction of the strategy. Some themes have already emerged which will become focus points. Because not all organisations were represented at the workshops there is the possibility that some relevant threats were not included in the assessment. This was minimised by having a list of assets and threats preprepared as a starting point for each workshop. Where there was a large range or uncertainty in risk rankings for a particular threat/asset scenario, this has been noted and in each case this will be looked at in more detail. Low confidence in assigning likelihood and consequence values was evident in the Bellarine/Hovells workshop in particular and may indicate a strong sense that there is not enough known about threats to some assets (particularly marine) in the future. It is also important to note that the strategy will also take into account additional information raised at the workshops (i.e. not just prioritised assets and threats) as well as consider priorities within other internal and external documents in order to provide a comprehensive list of actions. Evaluation from the workshops found that in general participants found the process worked well, and the opportunity to contribute to and discuss risk rationale was appreciated. 5.4 Management actions Management actions have not been attributed to landscape zones because they were only explored in two workshops hence a generic summary has been provided in Section 4.12. The table contains a list of possible management actions for priority threats to priority assets prepared by pairs and providing some direction for future marine and coastal biodiversity planning to reduce risk. Several major themes emerged from the additional mitigation recorded for threat scenarios. These included the following: Expand knowledge through research and communication of findings development of buffer zones for climate change impacts through planning and policy reviews monitoring offsets attract more resources increased enforcement improved coordination and partnerships community education and awareness 53 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report 5.5 preparing for new pest plants and animal invasions. Comments from the workshops A number of comments were received during the workshops and are summarised below and will be addresses in the development of the strategy. Recognising the value of an intact, connected environment and representative areas Discussion about habitat fragmentation as a threat or an impact (along with loss of connectivity) of vegetation clearing, recreational access, invasive weeds, pest animals and infrastructure Subtidal reefs include algae, flora, vertebrates and invertebrates Need maps of existing priorities Cross check intertidal and subtidal reef impacts as some are applicable to both Use of indicator species is important to represent ecosystems as a whole Be careful about wording associated with habitat types e.g. kelp is an algae and corals are not a strong community in this part of the world Where do orchids fit in a habitat system when they cross over many EVCs? Consider including an urban or degraded habitat which may be of value to some species. Rhodolith beds found to be quite common Driftwood could be a threat to penguins by blocking access to burrows Where do human values of biodiversity for recreational purposes fit in? Check where calcarenite dune woodland occurs Shipping could be too broad a threat – could break down into ballast, oil spills, contaminants, litter (covered) and anchoring Need to do landslide overlays to check whether there are any zones of concern Note differences between behaviour, attitude and awareness and which is the actual threat – the ‘doing’ or ‘thinking’? Feeling that water quality not addressed explicitly enough as a threat and rather has been incorporated into many other threats Statewide Native Fish strategy covers a lot of estuarine management issues Marine park management plans, strategies and actions are relevant beyond the boundaries of marine protected areas. They set a good direction for marine and coastal management. Need to include relationships/connection between ecological vegetation communities. Need definition of development 5.6 Points for consideration in the development of the strategy Need to make close links between definition of assets and ecosystem services Maintain a strong link to estuaries, coastal wetlands, river and vegetation themes 54 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report How do you take into consideration the CONDITION and LOCATION in the prioritisation of assets either within or across landscape zones? Is it a priority to manage assets in good condition over those that are not? At some point there needs to be discussion about when specifics are applied to what is essentially a list of conceptual assets and threats for a large area, i.e. need spatial overlays? Distinguish between threats, threatening processes and impacts Need to recognise value of already identified assets such as Ramsar sites and marine protected areas and that these areas need continuing resourcing Need widespread consultation Take into account land status when developing management actions and acknowledge land managers’ roles. Outline the CCMA/PPCMA boundaries for marine management with respect to embayments (Corio Bay and Port Phillip Bay) What the strategy should incorporate – actions rather than aspirations, identify audience (intended for broader than the CMA?), deliverables and accountabilities, priorities from a range of other strategies and keep a biodiversity focus for outcomes that are achievable, realistic and graded. Where does Swan Bay fit in? Does the Wetlands Strategy cover it or should it be included under near shore waters as a priority for action? Identify what is working now and identify/clarify assets that have not been a priority for the CCMA? What can the CCMA control/influence? Need to work with partners to ensure actions are accepted and appropriate and implemented Don’t leave out significant individual species in strategy When developing management actions, match people with expertise in specific areas (not everyone can assess everything) Consult engineers to look at engineering solutions to mitigate threats Provide strong links to other strategies, both internal and external, for efficiency and clear actions, and in order to attract funding from investors seeking multiple outcomes and integration. 55 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report 6 CONCLUSION In summary, the workshops generated an extensive pool of information about the concerns relating to the protection of marine and coastal biodiversity. Recurring themes were the need to address climate change, pest plants and animals, development pressures and our knowledge base, and improving the strategic approach to biodiversity protection by the different agencies involved. Across the workshops there was an expression of appreciation of the Corangamite CMA pursuing a role in marine and coastal biodiversity protection and in consulting with stakeholders. Evaluation and feedback showed that participants appreciated the opportunity to contribute to the development of the strategy and felt the risk assessment process enabled them to have some meaningful input. Likewise the input of all those involved has been greatly appreciated. There was a strong interest from participants in continuing their involvement with the strategy development in the form of a draft review, and this will form the next stage of the project. 56 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report 7 REFERENCES AS/NZS. (2004) Risk Management. (AS/NZS 4360:2004) Standards Australia of Australia, Strathfield NSW. Carey, J.M., Boxshall, A., Burgman, M.A., Beilin, R. and Flander, L. (2007a). State-wide synthesis of threats to natural values in Victoria’s Marine National Parks and Marine Sanctuaries. Parks Victoria Technical Series No. 34. Parks Victoria, Melbourne. Carey, J.M., Burgman, M.A., Boxshall, A., Beilin, R., Flander, L., Pegler, P. and White, A.K. (2007b). Identification of threats to natural values in Victoria’s Marine National Parks and Marine Sanctuaries. Parks Victoria Technical Series No.33. Parks Victoria, Melbourne. Cheshire, A.C., Westphalen, G. and Howe, S. (2008). Eyre Peninsula NRM Region: Coast and Marine Prioritisation Workshop. A report to the Eyre Peninsula Natural Resource Management Board and the Department for Environment and Heritage. ICE/FIA. (1998) RAMP: Risk analysis and management for projects. Institution of Civil Engineers and the Faculty and Institute of Actuaries. Thomas Telford, London. 57 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report APPENDIX 1 WORKSHOP HANDOUT Definitions for risk assessment Likelihood Highly likely (5): Expected to occur in most circumstances (For “everyday” events, approx. once per week. More than 85% chance of occurring within specified time frame) Likely (4): Will probably occur in most circumstances (For “everyday” events, approx. once per month. 5085% chance of occurring within specified time frame) Moderately likely (3): Might occur at some time (For “everyday” events, approx. once every 3 to 6 months. 21-49% chance of occurring within specified time frame) Unlikely (2): Could occur at some time (For “everyday” events, approx. once per year. 1-20% chance of occurring within specified time frame) Very unlikely (1): Not expected to happen (For “everyday” events, approx. once every 2 to 5 years. Less than 1% chance of occurring within specified time frame) Ecological Consequences Catastrophic (5): Major ecological kill, long-term or permanent disruption of ecological processes, substantial ecological change. Major (4): Likelihood of long-term or permanent, major ecological impact. Moderate (3): Temporary ecological impact extending beyond originating disturbance, some local or shortterm ecologically important consequences. Minor (2): Temporary and non serious ecological impact. Insignificant (1): No serious ecological impact. Risk Ratings Insignificant (1) Minor (2) Moderate (3) Major (4) Catastrophic (5) Highly Likely (5) H H E E E Likely (4) M H H E E Moderately Likely (3) L M H E E Unlikely (2) L L M H E Very Unlikely (1) L L M H H Consequence Likelihood Legend: E - Extreme Risk H - High Risk M - Moderate Risk L - Low Risk Risk Ratings are calculated by using the original likelihood & consequences rounded averages Ranking of Threats The rule used to rank the threats per asset is to use (1) the highest risk rating with (2) highest likelihood or consequence and (3) highest votes in that order. Where all these are equal, the rank is shown as the same for that asset. Adapted from ICE/FIA. (1998) and AS/NZS. (2004) 58 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report APPENDIX 2 COMBINED RISK RANKINGS FOR PRIORITY THREATS Risk M% H% E% Sea level rise and increased storm events (24) 25 75 Pest plants and animals (15) 27 73 Changing ocean parameters – temp and acidity (13) 15 85 Development (13) 38 62 Knowledge limitations (10) 60 40 Increasing population pressure (9) 55 45 Lower terrestrial rainfall and higher temperatures (8) 12 88 Vegetation clearing (6) 33 67 Community awareness, attitudes and behaviour (6) 100 Commercial fishing (6) 83 17 Inadequate management (5) 40 60 Priority threat (in order of number of responses) L% Habitat fragmentation (5) 100 Inadequate resources/capacity (5) 100 Marine pests (5) 20 Catchment practices (5) 100 Beach access (4) 100 Recreational fishing (3) 100 Diseases/pathogens (3) 34 Inappropriate fire regimes (3) 100 Structural barriers/dredging/exploration (3) 66 Stormwater and sewage treatment (3) 100 Bait and shellfish collection (2) 50 50 Dogs and vehicles on the beach (2) 50 50 Lack of coordinated planning (2) 50 50 Wildfire (1) 100 Oil spills and contaminants (1) 100 Removal of timber/plants/beachcombing material (1) 100 Industry discharge (1) 100 Inadequate enforcement/legislation (0) * Note: L = Low, M = Moderate, H = High and E = Extreme 59 80 66 34 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report Climate change Higher terrestrial temp/ and lower rainfall Change in ocean temp, acidification Increased storm events Potential changing currents Development Increasing population pressure Vegetation clearing Coastal dune scrub/grassland mosaic Land management Strategic management Knowledge limitations Inadequate resources/capacity Inadequate enforcement/legislation Coordination of planning Salinity changes (water) Use of herbicides and pesticides Increased population (e.g. due to cc) Mineral extraction Habitat fragmentation Weed removal Inappropriate fire regimes Catchment practices – grazing, run-off, dairy Lack of regeneration Sandy beaches Coastal Dune Scrub Breeding and roosting grounds - terrestrial Saltmarsh Coastal heathland Coastal headland scrub THREAT Sea level rise Coastal alkaline woodland SUMMARY OF THREATS TO COASTAL ASSETS PRIORITY ASSET APPENDIX 3 60 Structural and physical Changes to groundwater Bore water harvesting – aquifers (unknown impacts) Land based coastal erosion Pest plants and animals Reduced food source Shipping Fishing (incl. bycatch & excessive take) Aquaculture a c t i v i t i e s Commercial activities Marine Pests R e c r e a t i o n a l Lack of awareness of impacts Bait and shellfish Acid Sulphate Soils Emergence of new pests Wildfire Sandy beaches Coastal dune scrub/grassland mosaic Breeding and roosting grounds - terrestrial Coastal Dune Scrub Coastal heathland Saltmarsh Dredging, construction, structural barriers, exploration Landslides Removal of timber and native flora Illegal fishing Biological Coastal headland scrub THREAT Community awareness, attitudes, behaviour Poor/inadequate management Flow regimes (estuaries) Coastal alkaline woodland PRIORITY ASSET Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report 61 Sandy beaches Breeding and roosting grounds - terrestrial Coastal heathland Coastal dune scrub/grassland mosaic Coastal Dune Scrub Saltmarsh Coastal headland scrub Coastal alkaline woodland THREAT collection Dogs and vehicles on the beach Horses PRIORITY ASSET Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report Fishing – (incl. bycatch and excessive take) Boating and mooring Wildlife tours Beach access (cars and people) Bycatch Pollution and waste Tourism High number of people in a concentrated area for events e.g. Bells Diseases/pathogens e.g. abalone virus Rupturing of underwater pipelines Stormwater and sewage management Noise and light pollution (helicopters, jetty lights) Macro waste dumping e.g. ships Oil spills and contaminants Litter incl. entanglement 62 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report Land management Strategic management Inappropriate fire regimes Catchment practices – grazing, run-off, dairy Lack of regeneration Use of herbicides and pesticides Increased population (e.g. due to cc) Habitat fragmentation Development Increasing population pressure Vegetation clearing Intertidal invertebrates Rep. mammals Rep. amphibians Rep. birds Soil microflora and fauna Higher terrestrial temp/ and lower rainfall Change in ocean temp, acidification Increased storm events Threatened birds Climate change THREAT Sea level rise Threatened mammals SUMMARY OF THREATS TO FAUNA ASSETS PRIORITY ASSET APPENDIX 4 Knowledge limitations Inadequate resources/capacity Inadequate enforcement/legisl ation 63 Biological Rep. mammals Dredging, construction, structural barriers, exploration Landslides Acid Sulphate Soils Bore water harvesting – aquifers (unknown impacts) Land based coastal erosion Pest plants and animals Removal of timber and native flora Illegal fishing Marine Pests Reduced food source Wildfire Commerc ial activities Intertidal invertebrates Rep. birds Soil microflora and fauna Threatened birds Rep. amphibians Structural and physical THREAT Coordination of planning Community awareness, attitudes, behaviour Poor/inadequate management Flow regimes (estuaries) Threatened mammals PRIORITY ASSET Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report Shipping Fishing (incl. bycatch & excessive take) 64 Pollution and waste Recreational activities Lack of awareness of impacts Bait and shellfish collection Dogs and vehicles on the beach Fishing – (incl. bycatch and excessive take) Boating and mooring Intertidal invertebrates Rep. birds Rep. amphibians Soil microflora and fauna Threatened birds Threatened mammals Rep. mammals THREAT Aquaculture PRIORITY ASSET Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report Wildlife tours Beach access (cars and people) Bycatch High number of people in a concentrated area for events e.g. Bells Diseases/pathogen s e.g. abalone virus Rupturing of underwater pipelines Stormwater and sewage management Noise and light pollution (helicopters, jetty lights) Oil spills and contaminants Litter incl. entanglement 65 Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report Climate change Higher terrestrial temp/ and lower rainfall Change in ocean temp, acidification High Rainfall pulse events Potential changing currents Increased storm events Rhodolith Beds Intertidal reefs Subtidal reefs Mudflats Near shore waters Soft sediments Increasing population pressure Vegetation clearing Land management Development Inappropriate fire regimes Catchment practices – grazing, run-off, dairy Lack of regeneration Open waters Breeding and roosting grounds - aquatic THREAT Sea level rise SUMMARY OF THREATS TO MARINE ASSETS PRIORITY ASSET APPENDIX 5 Use of herbicides and pesticides Increased population (e.g. due to cc) Habitat fragmentation 66 Biological Structural and physical Strategic management Inadequate resources/capaci ty Inadequate enforcement/legi slation Coordination of planning Political will/inertia Breeding and roosting grounds - aquatic Rhodolith Beds Intertidal reefs Subtidal reefs Mudflats Near shore waters Soft sediments Open waters THREAT Knowledge limitations PRIORITY ASSET Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report Community awareness, attitudes, behaviour Poor/inadequate management Flow regimes (estuaries) Dredging, construction, structural barriers, exploration Landslides Removal of timber and native 67 Acid Sulphate Soils Bore water harvesting – aquifers (unknown impacts) Land based coastal erosion Pest plants and animals Rhodolith Beds Intertidal reefs Subtidal reefs Mudflats Near shore waters Soft sediments Open waters Marine Pests Breeding and roosting grounds - aquatic THREAT flora Illegal fishing PRIORITY ASSET Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report Emergence of new pests Sleeper species Recreational activities Commercial activities Reduced food source Failure to recognise biological relationships Wildfire Shipping Fishing (incl. bycatch & excessive take) Aquaculture Industry discharge Lack of awareness of impacts Bait and shellfish collection Dogs and vehicles on the beach Fishing – (incl. bycatch and excessive take) Boating and mooring Wildlife tours 68 Pollution and waste Bycatch High number of people in a concentrated area for events e.g. Bells Diseases/pathoge ns e.g. abalone virus Rupturing of underwater pipelines Stormwater and sewage management Noise and light pollution (helicopters, jetty lights) Oil spills and contaminants Macro waste dumping Litter incl. entanglement Open waters Soft sediments Near shore waters Mudflats Subtidal reefs Intertidal reefs Rhodolith Beds THREAT Beach access (cars and people) Tourism Breeding and roosting grounds - aquatic PRIORITY ASSET Wetlands Risk Assessment Workshop Report 69