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I
Science Chronology
This section lists the important events in climate science from 1800 to 2005. Events include scientific
conferences, announcement of major discoveries, and publication of important climate studies.
Date
Event
Circa 1800
Atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane concentrations in the atmosphere
hover around 270-290 parts per million (ppm) and 700 parts per billion (ppb),
respectively. i Most scientists today use these numbers as a pre-industrial
revolution baseline for comparison.
1800
Accelerated buildup of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere due to fossil fuel
combustion and deforestationii
1896
Svante Arrhenius, a Swedish scientist, identifies enhanced greenhouse effect iii
but fails to link the phenomenon to a cause.
1900
CO2 concentration in the atmosphere reaches 295 ppm iv.
1950
CO2 concentration in the atmosphere reaches 310 to 315 ppm v.
1941
In Vermont, the largest wind power source is connected the U.S. electricity
grid.vi
1957
Roger R. Revelle and Hans Seuss raised concern that the high level of CO2
emissions through the industrialization processes would alter the composition of
the atmosphere.
1958
vii
Regular monitoring of atmospheric CO2 levels begins at Mauna Loa, Hawaii by
the International Council of Scientific Union. viii
1988
WMO and UNEP establish the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) to provide ongoing full reports on the state of scientific consensus about
climate change and its possible impacts, as well as ideas about possible
response strategies.
1990
ix
IPCC First Assessment Report is released, asserting that the average global
surface temperature has increased by 0.3 to 0.6 degrees Celsius since 1980, x
this report is the first authoritative scientific assessment of climate change,
which produced clear policy implications.
1990
Methane concentration in the atmosphere reaches approximately 1,700
ppb.xi Notable sources of emissions include rice production and domestic
ruminants: since 1890, cattle population has increased by 4 times; pig
population by 9 times; and irrigated area by 5 times.xii
1990
Atmospheric CO2 concentration reaches 354 ppm: since 1890, world population
has increased by 4 times; energy use by 13 times; coal production by 7 times;
and forest area decreased by 20%.xiii
1995
The IPCC finalizes its Second Assessment Report in time for COP 2 (Geneva,
1996).
Written and reviewed by approximately 2,000 expert scientists from a
variety of fields world-wide, the Report concludes that “the balance of evidence
suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate.” The
Report also notes the availability of so-called no-regrets options and other
cost-effective strategies for combating climate change. xiv
2001
The IPCC finalizes its Third Assessment Report. The Report concludes that the
evidence for humanity’s influence on the global climate is now stronger than
ever before and presents a detailed picture to date of how climate change will
affect various regions.xv
2004
2004 has recently been named the fourth warmest year on record.
2004
comes behind 2003, 2002, and 1998 as the third, second, and warmest year on
record, respectively.
April 2005
Over 150 delegates from 99 governments meet in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia from
6-8 April to consider the IPCC/Technology and Economic Assessment Panel
(TEAP) special report entitled Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global
Climate System: Issues Related to Hydrofluorocarbons and Perfluorocarbons .
The report was prepared by Working Group I and Working Group III of the IPCC
in collaboration with the TEAP of the Montreal Protocol.xvi
III.
Industry Chronology
This section lists events and developments in industry sector that have significant climate consequences,
with special focus on the energy and transportation sectors. Important industry-led initiatives that have
international implications for formulating climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies are listed in
this section.
Date
Event
1905
H. Piper, an American engineer, files a patent for a petrol-electric hybrid vehicle
but the invention did take not take off commercially.xvii
1941
On a hilltop in Rutland, Vermont, "Grandpa's Knob" wind generator becomes
the first grid-connected supply of electricity (1.25 megawatts), delivering
power for several months during World War II.
Later renamed, the Smith-
Putnam machine, the generator was removed from service in 1945.
7 October 1957
A fire in the wind scale plutonium production reactor North of Liverpool,
England spreads radioactive material throughout the countryside. In 1983, the
British government says that 39 people probably died of cancer as a result. xviii
1957
A chemical explosion in Kasli, USSR (now in Russia) occurs in tanks containing
nuclear waste spreads radioactive material and forces a major evacuation. xix
3 January 1961
An experimental reactor at a federal installation near Idaho Falls, Id., kills three
workers—the only deaths in U.S. reactor operations. The plant had high
radiation levels but damage was contained.
1973
xx
OPEC imposes oil embargo against the US and the Netherlands because of
their support to Israel in the 1973 Arab-Israeli War. The Arab oil embargo
comes at a time of declining domestic crude oil production, rising demand, and
increasing imports. The embargo is accompanied by decreased OPEC
production, and with minimal global excess production capacity available
outside OPEC, creates short-term shortages and price spikes. When the
embargo is lifted six months later, world crude oil prices has tripled from the
1973 average to about $12 per barrel, and OPEC firmly controls the world oil
market. This event underscores US vulnerability to oil supply disruptions and
generates increased interest in alternative energy sources.xxi
1974
The Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) forms.
The association
represents the interests of stakeholders in the solar power industry and acts as
a lobbying group in Washington, DC.
1975
Cost of electricity from photovoltaic systems is 30 USD (of value in 1998) per
Watt capacity.xxii
1977
The Solar Energy Research Institute (SERI), now the National Renewable
Energy Laboratory (NREL), forms. NREL is a national laboratory that provides
research and development support for solar and photovoltaic technologies.
1978
Iranian Revolution results in a drop of 3.9 million barrels per day of crude oil
production in Iran from 1978 to 1981.xxiii
28 March 1979
The worst commercial nuclear accident in the U.S. occurred as equipment
failures and human mistakes led to a loss of coolant and partial core meltdown
at the Three Mile Island reactor in Middletown, Pa. Thousands living near the
plant left the area before the 12-day crisis ended, during which time some
radioactive water and gases were released.
xxiv
1979
The first wind turbine rated over 1 megawatt begins operating.
1979
Federal funding for wind power research and development (R&D) exceeds $50
million. U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funding for wind power R&D was
$59.6 million in fiscal year 1978 (current year dollars), marking the first time
the funding level surpassed $50 million. It remained above $50 million until
fiscal year 1982, when it was reduced to $16.6 million (current year dollars).
1980
The Iran-Iraq War breaks out and many Persian Gulf countries reduce oil
production. OPEC crude oil prices increase to unprecedented levels between
1979 and 1981.
1981
xxv
OPEC production declines to 22.8 million barrels per day, 7.0 million barrels per
day below its level for 1978.
1981
xxvi
Cost of electricity from windmills is 0.37 USD (of value in 2000) per kWh
produced.xxvii
1982
Solar One, a 10-megawatt central receiver demonstration project, begins
operation and establishes the feasibility of power tower systems.
In 1988,
the final year of operation, the system achieved an availability of 96 percent.
1982
Price of solar energy is 27 USD per Watt per peak hour.xxviii
1983
The first in a series of Solar Electric Generating Stations (SEGS) is installed in
1983, with output sold to Southern California Edison Company. SEGS I uses
solar trough technology to produce steam in a conventional steam turbine
generator. Natural gas is used as a supplementary fuel for up to 25 percent of
the heat input.
26 April 1986
The worst accident in the history of the nuclear power industry occurs in an
unauthorized experiment at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant near Kiev,
USSR (now in Ukraine).
Fires and explosions leave at least 31 people dead in
the immediate aftermath of the disaster and spread significant quantities of
radioactive material over much of Europe. An estimated 135,000 people were
evacuated from areas around Chernobyl, some of which were rendered
uninhabitable for years. As a result of the radiation released into the
atmosphere, tens of thousands of excess cancer deaths (as well as increased
rates of birth defects) were expected in succeeding decades.
1986
xxix
U.S. nuclear capacity is projected to decline from 99.1 GWe in 1994 to be
between 61.4 GWe and 76.0 GWe by 2015. xxx
1986
Crude oil price collapses because of a glut of crude oil in the world market. xxxi
1987
Cost of electricity from photovoltaic systems becomes 4 USD per Watt
capacity.xxxii
1989
Lowest point in federal funding for wind power of the 1980s in the US.
1990
Cost of electricity from windmills becomes 0.08 USD (of value in 2000) per
kWh produced.xxxiii
1992
The biggest array of thin film photovoltaic modules ever assembled starts
operation in Davis, Calif. Built by Advanced Photovoltaic Systems, the 9600
modules convert sunlight into electricity delivering up to 479 kilowatts, enough
for 124 homes.xxxiv
1994
The first solar dish generator using a free-piston Sterling engine was tied to a
utility grid.
1994
Price of wind energy in the United Kingdom is 4.3 pence / kWh. xxxv
1995
Department of Energy (DOE)'s advanced turbine program, funded at $49
million, has led to new turbines with energy costs of 5 cents per kWh of
electricity generated.
1996
The US has only one nuclear unit under construction. Six units are classified
as
indefinitely
deferred
with
very
little
likelihood
of
ever
being
completed. The Tennessee Valley Authority completes one station by 1996.
xxxvi
1996
Worldwide, there are 98 nuclear units under construction. The Far East region
has 37 units, more than any other region in the world. South Korea started
constructing 5 units in 1994.
October 1997
xxxvii
Toyota launches the Prius - the first mass produced petrol-electric hybrid car
that is powered both by an internal combustion engine and an electric motor.
Its emissions of smog-forming pollutants are 90% lower than a conventional
car. It has better fuel economy rating for urban driving (51 miles per gallon)
than for motorway driving (51 miles per gallon) – the opposite of a
conventional vehicle. xxxviii
Government ratings put the Prius's petrol
consumption at an average of 60 miles per American gallon (mpg) in city
driving—three times the mileage of, say, a sports-utility vehicle.
1998
Price of wind energy in the UK falls to 2.88 pence / kWh. xxxix
1998
Cost of electricity form photovoltaic systems is 4 USD (of value in 1998) per
Watt capacity.xl
April 1999
Two fuel-cell cars, one from DaimlerChrysler and one from Ford, are tested
around the streets of Sacramento, California, the first state to pass a historic
zero-emission vehicles law.xli
1999
Los Alamos National Laboratory’s researchers, in collaboration with a
consortium of energy companies and research institutes, form the non-profit
Zero Emission Coal Alliance (ZECA) to further the Zero Emission process. The
method aims to process heat recycled from fuel cells to reduce carbon dioxide
by 50% even without disposal, and to capture all emission products.xlii
December 1999
Ford unveils the 70-mpg Prodigy fuel-cell hybrid for 2003 production; Honda, a
carbon-fiber hybrid concept SUV; Mitsubishi, a hybrid SUV; Ford and Nissan,
fuel-cell hybrids; and Toyota, a hybrid van.xliii
2000
Cost of electricity from windmills is 0.04 USD (of value in 2000) per kWh
produced.xliv
2001
New renewable energy such as wind, geothermal, and solar energy occupies
0.8% of global electricity generating capacity. xlv
2001
The ZECA Corporation starts working on the design for a pilot plant that will
produce electricity at efficiency levels of approximately 70 percent (twice that
of current coal-fired plants). The pilot plant will capture all of carbon dioxide
produced has and provide zero emission of any pollutants to the
atmosphere.xlvi
October 2001
Six of the world's smoggiest cities (Mexico City, Sao Paulo, Cairo, New Delhi,
Shanghai, and Beijing) received fuel cell buses. The $60 million program was
funded by the Global Environment Facility (GEF), a financial mechanism
funded by the UN and World Bank for projects with global environmental
benefits.xlvii
12
2003
December
Continuous electronic trading of greenhouse gas emission allowances and
offsets through the Chicago Climate Exchange begins based on a voluntary
cap-and-trade program. The members have made a legally binding
commitment to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases by four per cent
below the average of their 1998-2001 baseline by 2006, the last year of the
pilot program.xlviii
April 2004
Ford unveils Escape, the world's first hybrid SUV, at a motor show in New York.
The vehicle averages more than 38 miles-per-gallon during a thirty-seven hour
non-stop test drive around Manhattan, logging 576 miles on fifteen gallons of
gasoline with near zero emissions.xlix
October 2004
Toyota nearly doubles its 2004 U.S. Prius market allocation. l
2004
Price of electricity generated from geothermal plant ranges between 0.05 and
0.08 USD / kWh.li
2005
Price of solar energy reaches 4 USD per Watt Peak. lii
January 2005
General Motors releases Sequel - a new prototype hydrogen vehicle, which is
able to drive 300 miles on one tank of hydrogen-roughly double what previous
fuel-cell cars were able to achieve.
i
McNeill, J. R. Something New Under the Sun: An Environmental History of the Twentieth-Century World.
New York: W.
W. Norton and Company, Inc., 2000.
For further information, see IPCC, Climate Change 1995, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996.
ii
McNeill, J. R.
iii
Betsil, Michele M. Global Climate Change Policy: Making Progress or Spinning Wheels? in The Global Environment:
Institutions, Law, and Policy, eds. Regina S. Axelrod, David Leonard Downie, and Norman J. Vig. Washington DC: CQ
Press, 2005.
iv
McNeill, J. R.
v
Ibid.
vi
http:///www.telos.com
vii
Betsill, Michele M.
viii
Ibid.
ix
Id.
x
McNeill, J. R.
xi
Ibid.
xii
Id.
xiii
Id.
xiv
Climate Change Information Sheet 17:
http://unfccc.int/essential_background/background_publications_htmlpdf/climate_change_information_kit/items/300t
xt.php
xv
Ibid.
xvi
IPCC. “Information Note for the Press: Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System: Available at
http://www.ipcc.ch/press/pr09042005.htm.
xvii
“Why the future is hybrid?” The Economist Technology Quarterly, December 4, 2004, pp. 26-30.
xviii
Notable Nuclear Accidents: http://core.ecu.edu/soci/juskaa/SOCI3222/nuclear.htm
xix
Ibid.
xx
Id.
xxi
“Petroleum Chronology of Events 1970-2000.” Energy Information Administration. Available at
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/analysis_publications/chronology/petroleumchronology2000.htm#T_1
0
xxii
American Wind Energy Association, What Are the Factors in the Cost of Electricity form Wind Turbines? 2000; Energy
Information Administration, US Department of Energy, Renewable Energy 2000: Issues and Trends, 2001. Available at
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/rea_issues/.
xxiii
Energy Information Administration.
xxiv
Notable Nuclear Accidents
xxv
“Petroleum Chronology of Events 1970-2000.”
xxvi
Ibid.
xxvii
American Wind Energy Association; Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy.
xxviii
Solarbuzz. Solar Energy Costs/Prices. Available at http://www.solarbuzz.com/StatsCosts.htm
xxix
Notable Nuclear Accidents
xxx
Ibid.
xxxi
Petroleum Chronology of Events 1970-2000.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/analysis_publications/chronology/petroleumchronology2000.htm#T_1
0_
xxxii
American Wind Energy Association; Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy
xxxiii
American Wind Energy Association; Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy
xxxiv
http://www.energyquest.ca.gov/time_machine/1990ce-2000ce.html
xxxv
British Wind Energy Association. The Economics of Wind Energy. Available at http://www.bwea.com/ref/econ.html.
xxxvi
Notable Nuclear Accidents
xxxvii
Notable Nuclear Accidents
xxxviii
“Why the future is hybrid?” The Economist Technology Quarterly, December 4, 2004, pp. 26-30.
xxxix
British Wind Energy Association. The Economics of Wind Energy. Available at http://www.bwea.com/ref/econ.html.
xl
American Wind Energy Association; Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy.
xli
“Fuel cells hit the road.” The Economist, 22 April 1999; see policy chronology for details about the California law
xlii
Los Alamos National Laboratory. Earth and Environmental Sciences, Feature Articles, ZECA Returns to Nature What
Nature Gave Us. Available at http://ees.lanl.gov/archive_index/2003/index_12-03.shtml
xliii
Rocky Mountain Institute. “Hypercar Chronology.” Available at http://www.rmi.org/sitepages/pid414.php.
xliv
American Wind Energy Association; Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy
xlv
Vaclav Smil. Energy at the Crossroads: Global Perspectives and Uncertainties. Boston: Massachusetts Institute of
Technology, 2003.
xlvi
Los Alamos National Laboratory
xlvii
Hypercar Chronology. Available at the Rocky Mountain Institute, http://www.rmi.org/sitepages/pid414.php
xlviii
Notable Nuclear Accidents
xlix
Hypercar Chronology
l
Hypercar Chronology
li
National Geothermal Collaborative. Common Questions on Geothermal Energy. Available at
http://www.geocollaborative.org/publications/Common_Questions_About_Geothermal_Energy.pdf
lii
Solarbuzz