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Net Zero Building Project
Stakeholder meeting 23rd March 2017
Problem 1: climate change
Very large uncertainty range
Depends on policies, growth
rates, technological change etc.
Source: US EPA
https://www.epa.gov/climate-change-science/future-climate-change
Likely increase at least 1.5C
Worst
case
4C+.
Temperature, sea level
rise & water shortages
make some regions
uninhabitable, forced
migration, conflict.
Example: Middle East and North Africa
22 countries, 400 million inhabitants
Accessible fresh water fallen by 2/3rd over last 40 years.
PC availability of fresh water now 1/10th world average
Projected to fall another 50% by 2050.
90 per cent of land is arid, semi/arid or dry.
Persian Gulf region particularly vulnerable.
Major implications for oil, forced migration, and conflict
Critical pressure points
US National Intelligence Council: world demand for food, water,
and energy will grow by approximately 35%, 40%, and 50%
respectively by 2030.
UN: Half of population will have water shortages by 2030.
US/UK Strategic Assessments: climate change, water shortages will
act as ‘threat multipliers’; increased risk of conflict and terrorism.
Key areas for R&D:
 Increase efficiency (energy, water etc.). Closed-loop economies.
 Develop low carbon energy supplies. Energy storage, smart grids,
renewable energy technologies (solar, wind turbines, sub-sea
turbines etc.)
 New solutions for efficient urban living (food, energy, waste,
transport etc.).
Problem 2: energy costs
Five Caribbean nations in top 10
highest electricity prices in LAC.
Montserrat: $0.50
‘There is an inseparable linkage between the
fiscal crisis confronting the Caribbean Region
and the reality of paying some of the world’s
highest per capita energy costs.’ [IDB]
USA: $0.14/kWh
}
oil producers
http://blogs.iadb.org/caribbean-dev-trends/2013/11/14/the-caribbean-has-some-of-the-worlds-highest-energy-costs-now-is-thetime-to-transform-the-regions-energy-market/
Solutions?
• Number of promising technologies: sea-bed turbines, synthetic
genomics biofuels, solid state solar cells etc., may offer solutions.
• Complex decisions; variables include economic factors and market
distortions, institutional structures e.g. grid ownership, capital costs,
maintenance costs, fuel costs, closeness-to-market of particular
technologies, risk profiles.
• Ideal solution might be emerging technology. But no government
can risk an energy gap.
• Rational solution: a ‘no-regrets’ strategy to reduce the risk of
investing in the wrong technology.
• So more important to increase energy efficiency than to develop
new RE sources. EE standards low, so efficiency can be improved at
relatively low cost.
• Option is likely to remain economically attractive even if energy costs
lower in future (as result of e.g. shale gas).
Example: buildings
• Buildings account for >1/3rd of world energy use and associated
greenhouse gas emissions.
• 10-20% of energy is used in manufacturing and assembly.
• 80-90% is heating, cooling, lighting, ventilation, appliances.
• It is therefore important to make buildings more efficient, so that
they are easier & cheaper to heat, cool, light and ventilate.
• ZEB/EP buildings: high energy efficiency, PV etc. used to meet
demand, power storage or smart grid as back-up.
• Technologies: LED/OLED lighting, absorbent wall coatings to
control humidity, efficient appliances (insulated refrigerators and
solar-powered air conditioning units) to reduce consumption.
• If all buildings were upgraded to current standard it would
displace 20-25% of global energy demand; ZEB would displace
38%, EP would displace more.
Net Zero Energy Building: Bullitt Center, Seattle
• Building uses approximately 230,000 KWH per year (typical office building of same
size uses 1,077,000 KWH).
• 570 solar panels generate 230,000 KWH per year.
The Solar Village
58 residential units, built 2008, in
Freiburg, Germany.
Solar panels provide electricity and
heat. South-facing roofs; angle and
spacing designed to maximize solar
gain. Wood-chip burner as backup
in winter.
Connected to grid, but no onsite
electricity storage. Average house in
Germany requires 3,000 kWh
electricity/pa. These houses net
export twice that. So each house is
energy plus, and generates revenue
for occupant.
Design for Geos Neighborhood in Arvada, Colorado:
308 houses. Design will reduce energy demand by
80%, solar & geothermal power will supply the rest.
BrightFarms hydroponic greenhouse: designed to be the largest rooftop
farm in the world, 100,000 square feet of rooftop space in Brooklyn.
EDITT Tower,
Singapore (design)
Key points
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Better planning and design can reduce energy
demand from buildings to net-zero or energy-plus.
Smart grids can balance supply and demand.
Integrated water management reduces waste, can
also support urban farming.
Cities could supply their own energy, food, water.
Reduction in energy demand could help resolve
problem of climate change.
How to effect change?
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Have to provide incentives and sanctions to drive
market towards better outcomes such as energy
efficient building designs.
R&D – university, private sector; government support
for research in some countries.
Uptake led by private sector; underpinned by planning
and building controls.
A performance-rating/labeling system for buildings is
important – have to make performance visible. Can
use existing performance rating system such as Green
Globes, LEED, Net Zero, Passive House.
Energy Minister Andrew Wheatley committed to make
all new-build in Jamaica net zero by 2050. Need
standards to support this, plus rating system.
And build prototypes!
Thank you !