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Net Zero Building Project Stakeholder meeting 23rd March 2017 Problem 1: climate change Very large uncertainty range Depends on policies, growth rates, technological change etc. Source: US EPA https://www.epa.gov/climate-change-science/future-climate-change Likely increase at least 1.5C Worst case 4C+. Temperature, sea level rise & water shortages make some regions uninhabitable, forced migration, conflict. Example: Middle East and North Africa 22 countries, 400 million inhabitants Accessible fresh water fallen by 2/3rd over last 40 years. PC availability of fresh water now 1/10th world average Projected to fall another 50% by 2050. 90 per cent of land is arid, semi/arid or dry. Persian Gulf region particularly vulnerable. Major implications for oil, forced migration, and conflict Critical pressure points US National Intelligence Council: world demand for food, water, and energy will grow by approximately 35%, 40%, and 50% respectively by 2030. UN: Half of population will have water shortages by 2030. US/UK Strategic Assessments: climate change, water shortages will act as ‘threat multipliers’; increased risk of conflict and terrorism. Key areas for R&D: Increase efficiency (energy, water etc.). Closed-loop economies. Develop low carbon energy supplies. Energy storage, smart grids, renewable energy technologies (solar, wind turbines, sub-sea turbines etc.) New solutions for efficient urban living (food, energy, waste, transport etc.). Problem 2: energy costs Five Caribbean nations in top 10 highest electricity prices in LAC. Montserrat: $0.50 ‘There is an inseparable linkage between the fiscal crisis confronting the Caribbean Region and the reality of paying some of the world’s highest per capita energy costs.’ [IDB] USA: $0.14/kWh } oil producers http://blogs.iadb.org/caribbean-dev-trends/2013/11/14/the-caribbean-has-some-of-the-worlds-highest-energy-costs-now-is-thetime-to-transform-the-regions-energy-market/ Solutions? • Number of promising technologies: sea-bed turbines, synthetic genomics biofuels, solid state solar cells etc., may offer solutions. • Complex decisions; variables include economic factors and market distortions, institutional structures e.g. grid ownership, capital costs, maintenance costs, fuel costs, closeness-to-market of particular technologies, risk profiles. • Ideal solution might be emerging technology. But no government can risk an energy gap. • Rational solution: a ‘no-regrets’ strategy to reduce the risk of investing in the wrong technology. • So more important to increase energy efficiency than to develop new RE sources. EE standards low, so efficiency can be improved at relatively low cost. • Option is likely to remain economically attractive even if energy costs lower in future (as result of e.g. shale gas). Example: buildings • Buildings account for >1/3rd of world energy use and associated greenhouse gas emissions. • 10-20% of energy is used in manufacturing and assembly. • 80-90% is heating, cooling, lighting, ventilation, appliances. • It is therefore important to make buildings more efficient, so that they are easier & cheaper to heat, cool, light and ventilate. • ZEB/EP buildings: high energy efficiency, PV etc. used to meet demand, power storage or smart grid as back-up. • Technologies: LED/OLED lighting, absorbent wall coatings to control humidity, efficient appliances (insulated refrigerators and solar-powered air conditioning units) to reduce consumption. • If all buildings were upgraded to current standard it would displace 20-25% of global energy demand; ZEB would displace 38%, EP would displace more. Net Zero Energy Building: Bullitt Center, Seattle • Building uses approximately 230,000 KWH per year (typical office building of same size uses 1,077,000 KWH). • 570 solar panels generate 230,000 KWH per year. The Solar Village 58 residential units, built 2008, in Freiburg, Germany. Solar panels provide electricity and heat. South-facing roofs; angle and spacing designed to maximize solar gain. Wood-chip burner as backup in winter. Connected to grid, but no onsite electricity storage. Average house in Germany requires 3,000 kWh electricity/pa. These houses net export twice that. So each house is energy plus, and generates revenue for occupant. Design for Geos Neighborhood in Arvada, Colorado: 308 houses. Design will reduce energy demand by 80%, solar & geothermal power will supply the rest. BrightFarms hydroponic greenhouse: designed to be the largest rooftop farm in the world, 100,000 square feet of rooftop space in Brooklyn. EDITT Tower, Singapore (design) Key points Better planning and design can reduce energy demand from buildings to net-zero or energy-plus. Smart grids can balance supply and demand. Integrated water management reduces waste, can also support urban farming. Cities could supply their own energy, food, water. Reduction in energy demand could help resolve problem of climate change. How to effect change? Have to provide incentives and sanctions to drive market towards better outcomes such as energy efficient building designs. R&D – university, private sector; government support for research in some countries. Uptake led by private sector; underpinned by planning and building controls. A performance-rating/labeling system for buildings is important – have to make performance visible. Can use existing performance rating system such as Green Globes, LEED, Net Zero, Passive House. Energy Minister Andrew Wheatley committed to make all new-build in Jamaica net zero by 2050. Need standards to support this, plus rating system. And build prototypes! Thank you !