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The evolution of ecosystem approaches: notes from the front lines Kerim Aydin Alaska Fisheries Science Center September 8, 2008 THE THE ALASKAN ALASKAN CONTEXT CONTEXT • Federally-managed groundfish populations – Yield of 2.5M mt/year • Conservative exploitation rates/productive stocks (unless you’re a crab). • Some declining mammal and bird stocks (fisheries management with Endangered Species Act considerations) • Pro-active management: ecosystem committee, ecosystem considerations chapter, but also pro-active lawsuits • The Congress finds and declares the following – A number of the Fishery Management Councils have demonstrated significant progress in integrating ecosystem considerations in fisheries management using the existing authorities provided under this [MSFCMA]. Annual Ecosystem Considerations chapter: A wealth of information (Boldt et al. 2007) http://access.afsc.noaa.gov/reem/ecoweb/index.cfm • Ecosystem Status Indicators: – – – – – – – – – – – Habitat Nutrients and Productivity Zooplankton Forage Fish Herring Salmon Groundfish Benthic and Non-target Marine Mammals Seabirds Ecosystem/Community – – – – Diversity Habitat Sustainability Humans • Ecosystem-Based Mgt Indices: Ecosystem Considerations • Ecosystem Assessment – Summarize historical climate and fishing in BSAI and GOA and possible future effects on ecosystems using multispecies and ecosystem models • Ecosystem Status Indicators – Historical and current status and trends 60+ indicators BS 250 12% 10% 200 8% 150 6% 100 4% 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 0% 1996 2% 0 1995 50 1994 – Early signals of direct human effects 20+ indicators 14% Discards (1000 t) Discard rate 300 Dicards (1000t) • Ecosystem-Based Mngt Indices 16% Discard rate 350 MSFCMA reauthorization (2007) • (5) […] the fisheries can be conserved and maintained so as to provide optimum yields on a continuing basis. • (33) The term "optimum", with respect to the yield from a fishery, means the amount of fish which— – (A) will provide the greatest overall benefit to the Nation […] – (B) is prescribed as such on the basis of the maximum sustainable yield from the fishery […] – (C) […] provides for rebuilding to a level consistent with producing the maximum sustainable yield in such fishery. Sustainability? • (Oxford English Dictionary 1989): Sustainable (adj): 1. Capable of being borne or endured; supportable, bearable. • “From a human point of view, maintaining yield at a certain (maximal) rate or level over time implies that we are getting everything we can, which we think is best for society. From the resource viewpoint, however, this is something that the resource has to “endure,” which implies stress, and constant maximal stress at that.” – (Gaichas 2008, Marine Policy) • How reversible (renewable) is a system from the continual endurance of maximum stress? Does the primary goal of “maximum sustainable” mesh with increased inclusion of “ecosystem considerations?” • Are we in for a revolutionary collision? If so, where? • Can this we manage this “smoothly”? If so, how? Currently: fisheries science and management starts from a single species Ecology and statistics • Lots of single-species ecology, lots of data • Lots of statistics Science, science review, and decisions – North Pacific Council Data collectors Stock assessment authors Plan teams SSC Advisory Panel Council – Annual cycle per stock (45+ species or complexes) • Science reviewed by Plan Teams • Scientific and Statistical Committee (SSC) sets maximum limit based on biology • Advisory panel may set further limits (economic, social, allocation) • Council decides. The primary scorecard Stock assessment authors Plan teams SSC (Time does exist for multi-year strategic actions: ecosystem committee, non-target committee, working groups, research, etc.) Along comes the ecosystem. Complexity vs. management reality Eastern Bering Sea Gulf of Alaska WHERE’S THE TEETH? The “Programmatic Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement” • The National Environmental Protection Act requires EISs for changes • • • • in management plans. But also requires “Programmatic” EISs which report on the cumulative effects of many changes and plans. Punctuated the evolutionary equilibrium: Lawsuit from environmental groups found we did not look at a wide enough range of alternatives, management strategies, and potential “cumulative” impacts. Never been done in a fisheries management plan context. 1,000s of pages, multiple attempts, years of work and deadlines… • We took a good hard look at our science, policy, and procedures, and put forward (agreed-to) methods for looking at and monitoring cumulative and ecosystemlevel effects. One lasting result: Including ecosystem considerations in each stock assessment (Lowe et al. 2007) Plan team scorecard from summary of assessments • How does this help? Let’s look at a species… Recent declines in the Eastern Bering Sea 1.2 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 1992 1990 1988 1996 Capelin 1996 0.0 1994 0.2 1994 0.4 1994 0.6 1992 0.8 1992 1.0 1990 Eulachon 1990 1988 1.4 1988 1986 1984 1982 1.2 1986 1984 1982 1.4 1986 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1984 1982 Relative CPUE Bottom-up production? Some indices Sandlance 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Assessment focus: Forage fish biomass b io m as sd en s ity(t/km ^ 2) 30 EBS POLLOCK 25 Age 2+ pollock (assessment) 20 15 10 5 20 05 20 04 20 03 20 02 20 01 20 00 19 99 19 98 19 97 19 96 19 95 19 94 19 92 (Aydin and Mueter 2007) 19 93 19 91 19 90 19 89 19 88 19 87 19 86 19 85 19 84 19 83 19 82 0 This continued low level of forage was (qualitative) reason for caution for pollock discussed by BSAI Plan Team 20 05 04 03 2.5 20 3 02 01 00 99 98 96 97 95 94 93 92 91 90 89 88 87 86 85 84 83 82 3.5 20 20 20 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 The eastern Bering Sea: predators of pollock. b io m a s s d e n s ity (t/k m ^ 2 ) Stock assessment biomass 4 EBS COD BS GT Skates EBS ATF Lg Sculpins 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Evolution of single-species assessments to include advice frommultispecies models and indicators From North Pacific Fisheries Management Council’s Scientific and Statistical Committee minutes, December 2006: • “The [eastern Bering Sea walleye pollock] stock remains above the MSY level, having declined … at a rate of about 19% per year….A series of 4 below-average recruitments has contributed to the decline…the series of low recruitments will result in an age-structure that is dominated by only a few year-classes which could increase fluctuations in the population.” Result from single-species assessment • “Other issues raised in the stock assessment suggest a need for further caution.” – a northward shift … with some portion of the population into Russian waters. Assessment + ecosystem indicators – a large decline in zooplankton, which is important in providing forage for juvenile pollock. Ecosystem indicators – increasing predation by arrowtooth flounder on juvenile pollock, which could contribute to further declines in adult pollock biomass. A multispecies model • “Consequently, the SSC agrees with the Plan Team that a reduction in Allowable Biological Catch from the maximum permissible is justified.” Conclusion I: Incorporating ecosystem concerns needs hand-in-hand work between ecosystem researchers and stock assessment authors at many stages. • Mandate + resources in assessment and reporting/Council process. • (Not every species will need this level of scrutiny) Where’s the teeth II ? • Ecosystem -> Stock assessment works in the • previous context, but: – Stock assessment -> other stock assessment – Stock assessment -> unassessed component What then? Solution I: more integrated monitoring • Ecosystem Assessment: Combine trends and model results into ecosystem thresholds to: – Maintain predator-prey relationships – Maintain diversity – Maintain energy flow and balance Solution II: decision support tools Sustainability and current tools? • “Maximum Sustainable Yield is fine, close, reasonable.” • “Sustainable (adj): 1. Capable of being borne or endured; supportable, bearable.” • Reconciliation between two views: – How recoverable is a system from the continual endurance of maximum stress? Risk of irreversibility is a key criterion. – Are we accurately reporting expectations? Are we misleading with our ability to predict irreversible thresholds? – Simulation with adequately broad models of potential interactions and uncertainty. – Time-based risk management, long-term risk reporting. Aleutian Islands Fishery Ecosystem Plan Decision Support Tools and long-term Risk Assessment Communication of strategic ecosystem alternatives must: • Specify policy risk based on uncertainty versus reward. Number of "droughts" over 1000 years 35 Low F High F 30 25 “Pollock drought”: length of time during which pollock catch remains below a reference level. 20 15 10 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Duration of "drought" CONCLUSION II: We must include time and events – and improve our use of this language of risk and uncertainty: state-based indicators may miss this. Acknowledgements Jennifer Boldt Shannon Bartkiw Jennifer Boldt Nick Bond David Carlile Kristin Cieciel Amy Childers Cathy Coon Dean Courtney Ken Coyle Braxton Dew Miriam Doyle Don Dragoo Sherri Dressel Doug Eggers Lisa Eisner Lowell Fair Ed Farley Angela Feldman Ron Felthoven Shannon Fitzgerald Lowell Fritz Jeff Fujioka Sarah Gaichas Jessica Gharrett John J. Goering Gary Greene C. E. Grosch Steven Hare Pat Harris Alan Haynie Kyle Hebert Jon Heifetz Jack Helle Terry Hiatt Jerry Hoff Jim Ianelli Jim Ingraham JISAO Jesus Jurado-Molina Tom Kline Kathy Kuletz Carol Ladd Bob Lauth Heather Lazrus Mike Litzow Pat Livingston Mitch Lorenz S. Allen Macklin Michael Martin Bob McConnaughey Kathryn Mier Steve Moffitt Jim Murphy Jeff Napp Ivonne Ortiz Bob Otto James Overland Fisheries And The Environment Julie Pearce Mike Perez Amanda Poole Franz Mueter Alexei Pinchuk Susan Picquelle Marc Pritchett Jennifer Reynolds TaeKeun Rho Dylan Righi Kim Rivera Sergei Rodionov Chris Rooper Tom Royer Lou Rugolo Sigrid Salo Nandita Sarkar Jennifer Sepez Naonobu Shiga Kalei Shotwell Elizabeth Sinclair Paul Spencer Mick Spillane Phyllis Stabeno Dean Stockwell Robert Stone Allan Stoner Steve Syrjala Ward Testa Jack Turnock Dan Urban Gary Walters Muyin Wang Fred West Terry Whitledge Tom Wilderbuer Doug Woodby Cynthia Yeung Harold Zenger Jie Zheng Mark Zimmermann