Download Natural hazards for the Earth`s civilization from space, 1. Cosmic ray

Adv. Geosci., 14, 281–286, 2008
www.adv-geosci.net/14/281/2008/
© Author(s) 2008. This work is licensed
under a Creative Commons License.
Advances in
Geosciences
Natural hazards for the Earth’s civilization from space,
1. Cosmic ray influence on atmospheric processes
L. I. Dorman
Israel Cosmic Ray & Space Weather Center and Emilio Segre’ Observatory, affiliated to Tel Aviv University, Technion and
Israel Space Agency, Qazrin 12900, Israel
Cosmic Ray Department of IZMIRAN, Russian Academy of Science, Troitsk 142092, Moscow Region, Russia
Received: 4 July 2007 – Revised: 30 December 2007 – Accepted: 2 January 2008 – Published: 10 April 2008
Abstract. In this paper we give a short description of global
natural disasters for the Earth’s civilization from space: 1)
Galactic and solar cosmic ray (CR) influence on the atmospheric processes; 2) Impacts of great space magnetic storms
during big Forbush-effects in CR, 3) Impacts of great radiation hazards from solar CR during flare energetic particle
events, 4) Great impacts on planetary climate during periods of the Solar system capturing by molecular-dust clouds,
5) Catastrophic disasters from nearby Supernova explosions,
and 6) Catastrophic disasters from asteroid impacts on the
Earth. Some of these problems have been already studied
(see e.g. Dorman, 1957, 1963a, b; Dorman and Miroshnichenko, 1968; Dorman, 1972, 1974, 1975a, b, 1978; Velinov et al., 1974; Miroshnichenko, 2001, 2003; Dorman,
2004, 2006, 2008). We present here a detailed treatment of
the first disaster only, leaving to future papers the analysis of
the other aspects.
1
Introduction
The main natural disasters for the Earth’s civilization caused
by space phenomena are the following:
Space natural disaster 1. Cosmic ray (CR) influence on
the air ionization, nuclear and chemical reactions, on global
atmospheric processes, on communication systems, on low
cloud covering, and on global climate change. This type of
space natural disaster will be considered in the present paper.
Space natural disaster 2. Global disaster from great
space magnetic storms connected with big CR Forbushdecreases and their assessment by using the world-wide network of CR stations: great geomagnetic storms may affect
adversely global technology systems, high frequency radio
communications can be disrupted, electric power distribution
grids blacked out when induced currents causes safety devices to trip, and atmospheric warming causes increased drag
on satellites and anomalies in their operation. Moreover, increased frequency of myocardial infarction, brain stroke, car
and train accidents have been observed during these events.
Electric power and long oil tubes catastrophes have been observed in the past in Canada and other countries. By using
on-line hourly CR data from the world-wide network of stations, it is possible to perform an accurate assessment of this
natural hazard 15–20 h before the storm sudden commencement.
Space natural disaster 3. Global natural disaster from
intense radiation hazards for astronauts, for crew and passengers on regular airline flights at the altitude of about
10 km), and occasionally also for people on the ground level
due to exceptional solar CR events. It was shown (References) that the predicted occurrence of such events (statistical distribution, examples from the past; we show that
this advertisement, with high occurrence probability, can be
given 30–60 min before the arrival of the more dangerous
particle flux. This method is based on the well known fact
that the main part of radiation hazard in space and in atmosphere is caused by particles with small energy (few hundreds MeV) that reach the Earth 1–2 h after their acceleration on the Sun; on the contrary the relatively small flux of
high-energy (≥2 GeV) particles not involved in the radiation
hazard, which can be detected by super neutron monitors,
reach the Earth much more quickly. Several A few minutes
of observation of the first-coming high-energy solar particles
can give enough information on intensity, energy spectrum,
transport parameters, and source function to make it possible to predict the time-space distribution of radiation hazard
in interplanetary space (for astronauts and space-probe technology) and in the Earth atmosphere as a function of latitude
(geomagnetic cut-off rigidity) and altitude.
Correspondence to: L. I. Dorman
([email protected])
Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.
2.
CR influence on the air ionization, nuclear and chemical reactions, on
radio wave propagation, on atmospheric electrical effects and thunderstorms,
on low cloud covering and on global climate change
282
L. I. Dorman: Natural hazards for the Earth’s civilization from space
2.1. Air ionization by galactic CR
Figure 1 shows experimental data
of Ermakov et al. (1997) on
galactic CR generation of
secondary particles and absorption
for different cutoff rigidities, and
Figure 2 – total ionization of
atmosphere by galactic CR
(primary and secondary) in
dependence of altitude.
Figure 1. The absorption curves
of CR in the atmosphere at
different cutoff rigidities (numbers
at the top in GV). The horizontal
bars
indicate
the
standard
deviations (Ermakov et al., 1997).
Figure 2. Th
as a function
geomagnetic
the top in G
indicate
th
(Ermakov et a
The planetary
at the altitud
Usoskin et al.
3 for the year
during 1950-2
4.
Fig. 2.
ion concentration
profiles as a function of altitude for
Figure 2. The
ionThe
concentration
profiles
Fig. 1. The absorption curves of CR in the atmosphere at different
different
geomagnetic
cutoff
rigidities (numbers at the top in GV).
as
a
function
of
altitude
for
different
cutoff rigidities (numbers at the top in GV). The horizontal bars
Thecutoff
horizontal
bars indicate
the standard
deviations (Ermakov et al.,
geomagnetic
rigidities
(numbers
at
indicate the standard deviations (Ermakov et al., 1997).
1997).
the top in GV). The horizontal bars
indicate
the
standard
deviations
(Ermakov et al., 1997).
Space natural disaster 4. Solar system captured by
cepted that the Supernova explosions are the main source
molecular-dust clouds. The prediction of the interaction of a
of galactic CR. At each explosion the average energy trans50 –1051 erg. From this quantity we
dust-molecular cloud with the solar system can be performed
ferreddistribution
to CR is ESE
The planetary
of∼10
ionization
by measurements of changes in the galactic CR distribution
can
determine
the
expected
frequency of SE in our Galaxy
at the altitude of 3 km, calculated by
function. From the past we know that the dust from clouds
and
in
vicinity
of
the
Sun
and
Usoskin et al. (2004), is shown in Figureestimate the probability of Subetween the Sun and the Earth leads to a decrease of
so-the year
pernova
different distances from the Sun, the
3 for
2000,explosions
and its timeat variation
lar irradiation flux leading to a sufficient decrease of global
expected
radiation
hazard,
and its variation with time. It
during 1950-2000 is presented in Figure
planetary temperature (by 5–7◦ in comparison with 0.8◦4.from
was shown that in some cases the level of radiation may ingreenhouse effect). The plasma in a moving molecular dust
crease by about 1000 times in comparison with present level,
cloud contains a frozen-in magnetic field; this field could
reaching levels extremely dangerous for the Earth’s civilizamodify the stationary galactic CR distribution outside the
tion and biosphere. By high energy CR measurements by
Heliosphere. The change in the distribution function can
ground and underground muon telescopes and low-latitude
be significant, and it should be possible to identify these
neutron monitors on the Earth it is possible to obtain inforchanges when the distance between the cloud and the Sun
mation on the source function and diffusion coefficient many
becomes comparable with the dimension of the cloud. The
years before the real radiation hazard will involve the Earth.
continuous observation of the time variation of CR distribuOn the basis of this information it is possible to perform an
3 developing of the radiation
tion function for many years should provide the possibility of
accurate forecasting on the time
determining the direction and the speed of the cloud relative
hazard in space and in the atmosphere at different altitudes
to the Sun, as well as its geometry. Therefore, one could preand cutoff rigidities (different geomagnetic latitudes), by usdict its evolution in space and determine whether it will catch
ing the method of coupling functions. On the basis of the
the Sun or not. In the case of high probability of capture, we
obtained forecast the Earth’s civilization will have enough
could predict the time of the capture and how long the solar
time (at least several tens of years) to prepare an alternative
system will be inside the cloud.
life underground and in special protected buildings, where to
live for several hundreds years.
Space natural disaster 5. Catastrophic disasters from
nearby Supernova explosions. Prediction of the radiation
Space natural disaster 6. Catastrophic disasters from ashazard produced by CR particles generated in a nearby Suteroid impacts on the Earth. These catastrophic disasters ocpernova explosion (SE). From the energetic balance of CR
curred several times in the past. At present, by modern methin the Galaxy it was estimated that the full power for CR
ods of Astronomy, the trajectory of dangerous asteroids can
production is WCR ∼3×1040 erg/s. Now it is commonly acbe exactly determined. By the impact between the asteroid
Adv. Geosci., 14, 281–286, 2008
at the
bars
deviati
www.adv-geosci.net/14/281/2008/
Figure 3. Calculated equilibrium galactic CR induced ionization at the altitude of 3 km (h =
2
3
in
steps of 10 cm (Usoskin et al., 2004).
725 g/cm
) for the year 2000. Contour lines are given as the number of ion pairs
L. I. Dorman: Natural hazards for the Earth’s civilization from
space
283 per cm
-3
Figure 4. Calculated time profiles of the annual ionization at altitude of 3 km (h = 725
g/cm2), induced
galactic CR,time
for three
regions:
polar
(Rc < ionization
1 GV), mid-latitudes
Fig. 4. byCalculated
profiles
of the
annual
at alti- (Rc ≈ 6
2 ), induced
GV) andtude
equatorial
(Rc ≈(h=725
15 GV)g/cm
regions.
Accordingby
to galactic
Usoskin et
al. (2004).
of
3
km
CR,
for
three
re- wave
Velinov et al., 1974; Dorman, 2004). Especially great disruptions in short radio
gions: polar
(Rc <1 GV),
and23,
equatorial
communications
were observed
duringmid-latitudes
great solar CR (R
event
at GV)
February
1956. In Figure 5
c ≈6
2.2.
Airhow
ionization
by solarwas
CRchanging
and influence
on radio-wave
communications
we show(R
the GV)
air ionization
during
some et
bigal.solar
CR events in the period
≈15
regions. According
to
Usoskin
(2004).
c=
Figure 3. Calculated equilibrium galactic CR induced ionization at the altitude of
3 km (h
1989-2001,
by Quack et al. (2001) on the basis of data on observed energy spectra
3 computed
During
great
equilibrium
induced
at
725 g/cm2Fig.
) for 3.
the Calculated
year 2000. Contour
lines galactic
are givenCR
as the
numberionization
of ion pairs
per cm
in solar energetic particle events the air ionization increased by many times,
of solar CR.
2
leading
to a sufficient influence on radio-wave communications (see Dorman, 1963a,b;
-3
of 3etkm
steps of 10the
cmaltitude
(Usoskin
al.,(h=725
2004). g/cm ) for the year 2000. Contour lines
are given as the number of ion pairs per cm3 in steps of 10 cm−3
(Usoskin et al., 2004).
4
and a particularly powerful rocket, the trajectory of the asteroid could be slightly changed avoiding a catastrophic interaction.
2
2.1
CR influence on the air ionization, nuclear and chemical reactions, on radio wave propagation, on atmospheric electrical effects and thunderstorms, on low
cloud covering and on global climate change
Air ionization by galactic CR
Figure 5. Total ionization during big solar CR events in October 1989, July 2000, and April
Fig. 5. Total ionization during big solar CR events in October 1989,
2001(h(Quack
Figure 4. Calculated time profiles of the annual ionization at altitude of 3 km
= 725et al., 2001).
July 2000, and April 2001 (Quack et al., 2001).
g/cm2), induced by galactic CR, for three regions: polar (Rc < 1 GV), mid-latitudes (Rc ≈ 6
Figure 1(Rshows
experimental data of Ermakov et al. (1997)
2.3. Galactic and solar CR influence on atmospheric chemical processes
GV) and equatorial
c ≈ 15 GV) regions. According to Usoskin et al. (2004).
on galactic CR generation of secondary particles and absorpThis
2.2.
problem was considered in detail by Dorman (2004). We show in Figure 6, as an
example,al.
the(2001)
production
nitrates
thedata
Earth’s
galactic spectra
and solar of
CR, and in
Airtion
ionization
by solar
CR rigidities,
and influence
communications
for different
cutoff
and on
Fig.radio-wave
2 – total ionization
on ofthe
basisinof
onatmosphere
observedbyenergy
Figure 7 the reduction of ozone contents during some solar CR events.
of atmosphere
by particle
galacticevents
CR (primary
and secondary)
solar
During great
solar energetic
the air ionization
increasedinbydemany times,
leading topendence
a sufficient
of influence
altitude. on radio-wave communications (see Dorman, 1963a,b;
The planetary distribution of ionization at the altitude of
3 km, calculated by Usoskin et al. (2004), is shown in Fig. 3
for the year 2000, and its time variation during 1950–2000 is
presented in Fig. 4.
2.2
Air ionization by solar CR and influence on radio-wave
communications
2.3
CR.
Galactic and solar CR influence on atmospheric chemical processes
This4 problem was considered in detail by Dorman (2004).
We show in Fig. 6, as an example, the production of nitrates
in the Earth’s atmosphere by galactic and solar CR, and in
Fig. 7 the reduction of ozone contents during some solar CR
events.
During great solar energetic particle events the air ionization
increased by many times, leading to a sufficient influence on
2.4 Galactic and solar CR influence on atmospheric nuclear
radio-wave communications (see Dorman, 1963a, b; Velinov
processes
Figure 6. Nitrates
production by galactic CR during minimum and maximum of solar activity
(correspondingly GCRmax(NOT VISIBLE) and GCRmin) and during some solar CR events in
et al., 1974; Dorman, 2004). Especially great disruptions
November
September
1966,reactions
and August of
1972
(Crutzenand
et al.,solar
1975).CR in the
in short radio wave communications were observed during
As1960,
result
of nuclear
galactic
great solar CR event at 23 February 1956. In Fig. 5 we show
Earth’s atmosphere a lot of cosmogenic stable and radioachow the air ionization was changing during some big solar
tive isotopes (3 H, 3 He, 7 Be, 10 Be, 14 C, and others) are proCR events in the period 1989–2001, computed by Quack et
duced. The measurements of 10 Be contents in ice columns
5
www.adv-geosci.net/14/281/2008/
Adv. Geosci., 14, 281–286, 2008
Figure 5. Total ionization during big solar CR events in October 1989, July 2000, and April
2001 (Quack et al., 2001).
2.3.
Galactic and solar CR influence on atmospheric chemical processes
This problem
as an
284 was considered in detail by Dorman (2004). We show in Figure
L. I.6, Dorman:
example, the production of nitrates in the Earth’s atmosphere by galactic and solar CR, and in
Figure 7 the reduction of ozone contents during some solar CR events.
Natural hazards for the Earth’s civilization from space
Figure 6. Nitrates production by galactic CR during minimum and maximum of solar activity
(correspondingly GCRmax(NOT VISIBLE) and GCRmin) and during some solar CR events in
Fig.
6. September
Nitrates production
by galactic
CR during
minimum and
November
1960,
1966, and August
1972 (Crutzen
et al., 1975).
maximum of solar activity (correspondingly GCRmax (NOT VISIBLE) and GCRmin ) and during some solar CR events in November
1960, September 1966, and August 1972 (Crutzen et al., 1975).
5
from Antarctica and Greenland are widely used for determining galactic CR intensity and solar CR events in the past. The
content of 14 C in annual wood rings is utilized for determinFig. 7.
Percentage
decrease
of thepressure
O3 partialversus
pressure
air derived fro
Figure 7. Percentage
decrease
of the
O3 partial
air versus
pressure
ing exchange processes between atmosphere, biosphere, and
pressure
derived
from the
average
the periods
7 days before
4 August
average of the 7 days
before
4 August
1972
and 7ofday
centered
on 8 and 19 day
oceans, as well as CR intensity in past and for dating (wellandlines).
7 day periods
centered
on 8 and
days after the solar
the solar CR event1972
(solid
According
to Heath
et al.19(1977).
known radiocarbon method). It is important that by cosmoCR event (solid lines). According to Heath et al. (1977).
genic isotopes it is possible to find out catastrophic
in
2.4.events
Galactic
and solar CR influence on atmospheric nuclear processes
the Earth’s environment in the past (see Dorman, 2004).
As result of nuclear
of (Chalmers,
galactic and
solarThis
CR discharge
in the Earth’s
atmosphere a
Earthreactions
in 5–6 min
1967).
is indeed
3
3
7
10
14
cosmogenic
stable
and
radioactive
isotopes
(
H,
He,
Be,
Be,
C,
and
others)
are prod
compensated
by many thousands thunderstorms and elec2.5 CR influence on atmospheric electric field and thunder10
Be
contents
in
ice
columns
from
Antarctica
and
Greenland
are w
The
measurements
of
tron precipitations which are charging the Earth negatively.
storms, global Earth’s charge and global electric curused
for
determining
galactic
CR
intensity
and
solar
CR
events
in
the
past.
The
content
A global electric circuit in the low atmosphere is provided
rent
in annual wood rings
utilized
for determining
exchange
processes
atmos
by CRiswhich,
through
the ionization
of air atoms,
assurebetween
air
biosphere, and oceans,
as
well
as
CR
intensity
in
past
and
for
dating
(well-known
radioc
conductivity. Therefore, CR may play an important key role
The influence of CR on thunderstorms and atmospheric elecmethod). It is important
that
by
cosmogenic
isotopes
it
is
possible
to
find
out
catastr
in keeping about constant the Earth’s global negative charge
tric field was intensively investigated in the frame of kievents in the Earth’s
in the past (see Dorman, 2004).
(seeenvironment
Dorman, 2004).
netic theory of discharges by Gurevich et al., 1992, 1999,
2001; Gurevich and Milikh, 1999; Gurevich and Zybin,
2.6 CR
on planetary
cloud-covering
and long2.5. withCR influence
oninfluence
atmospheric
electric
field and thunderstorms,
glob
2001. It was shown that discharges are not possible
term
climate
change
Earth’s
charge
and
global
electric
current
out the presence of CR in the observed atmospheric elecThe elecinfluence of CR on thunderstorms and atmospheric electric field was inten
tric fields. Only owed to the secondary CR relativistic
Fig. 8ofwe
show theory
results of
of discharges
Marsh and by
Swensmark
investigated
kinetic
Gurevich(2000a,
et al., 1992, 1999,
trons, which in the atmospheric electric field create runawayin theInframe
Gurevich
and Milikh,
Gurevich and
Zybin,CR
2001.
It wasvariation
shown that
b) on1999;
the comparison
between
intensity
anddischarges a
electron avalanches, thunderstorm discharges become
possipossible without
the
presence
CR in the
observed
atmospheric electric fields. Only ow
variations
in of
planetary
cloud
coverage.
ble. On the other hand, also Ermakov (1992), Ermakov
and
thedischarges
secondary CR relativistic
electrons,
the atmospheric
field create ru
Figure 8 shows
that which
a veryingood
correlation iselectric
found for
Stozhkov (1999, 2003) connected thunderstorms
electron
thunderstorm
discharges
becomecan
possible.
On the
the low
clouds. This
good correlation
be explained
by other hand
with CR, but they assumed that the main cause
are theavalanches,
atErmakov
(1992), considering
Ermakov and
2003)
thunderstorms
disc
the Stozhkov
ionization (1999,
of air by
CR. connected
The decreasing
of
mospheric showers of energetic particles generated
by priCR,genbut they
causeofare
showers of ene
CRassumed
intensitythat
leadstheto main
decreasing
thethe
air atmospheric
ionization, causmary CR with energy ≥1014 eV (the frequencywith
of their
generateding
bya primary
CRofwith
energyclouding
≥ 1014 eV
(the frequency
of their genera
decreasing
planetary
coverage,
and a correeration in a cloud with a dimension of severalparticles
km is about
a cloud
with a dimension
several km
is about ground
1000/s).airIttemperature.
is well known that the Ear
spondingof
increasing
of planetary
1000/s). It is well known that the Earth has about
constant
5
about
constant negative
charge
Q shown
≈ 6×10another
C. As example
a result, of
in the
quiet
conditions
In Fig.
9 it is
influence
of there are e
negative charge Q≈6×105 C. As a result, in quiet
conditions
space effects on the Earth’s climate: variation of air surface
there are electric fields of about −130 V/m directed to the
temperature during Maunder minimum in connection with
Earth’s surface. Between the Earth’s surface and the neutral
variation in 10 Be concentration (which is proportional to CR
layer in ionosphere at the altitudes of 55–80 km there is a
−12
2
intensity).
flow of electric current with average density J ≈10
A/m .
From Fig. 9 can be seen that again the main cause of the
The total discharged current in all atmosphere is about 1800
long-term changes in climate is time variation of CR intenA, and this current may discharge the negative charge of the
Adv. Geosci., 14, 281–286, 2008
www.adv-geosci.net/14/281/2008/
atmosphere is provided by CR which, through the ionization of air atoms, assure air
conductivity. Therefore, CR may play an important key role in keeping about constant the
Earth's global negative charge (see Dorman, 2004).
L. I. Dorman: Natural hazards for the Earth’s civilization from space
2.6.
285
CR influence on planetary cloud-covering and long-term climate change
In Figure 8 we show results of Marsh
and Swensmark (2000 a,b) on the
comparison between CR intensity
variation and variations in planetary
cloud coverage.
Figure 8. CR intensity according to
Huancayo/Haleakala NM (cut off
rigidity 12.9 GV, normalized to
October 1965, curve 2) in
comparison with global average of
monthly cloud coverage anomalies
(curve 1) for: a – high clouds, H >
6.5 km, b – middle clouds, 6.5 km
>H > 3.2 km, and c – low clouds, H
< 3.2 km. According to Marsh and
Swensmark (2000a,b).
Figure 9.
minimum:
reconstruc
Lean et al
10
Be conce
(1991); c)
temperatur
hemispher
(1998). A
(2000).
From Figu
again the
term chan
variation o
increasing
air ioniza
increasing
and corre
the air s
papers Do
(2005) we
forecasting
intensity
determinin
climate c
influence
clouds cov
to 11 years
Figure 8 shows that a very good
correlation is found for the low
clouds. This good correlation can be
explained by considering the
ionization of air by CR. The
decreasing of CR intensity leads to
decreasing of the air ionization,
causing a decreasing of planetary
clouding
coverage,
and
a
corresponding
increasing
of
planetary ground air temperature.
In Figure 9 it is shown another
3 Concl
example of the influence of space
We presen
effects on the Earth’s climate:
description
variation of air surface temperature
natural
disastersin for
the
Earth’s
we considered
in more
during
minimum
incivilization.
Fig.
9. Maunder
Situation
the
Maunder
minimum:
(a) variation
in re10 phenomena influence on atmospheri
disaster,with
connected
withfrom
space
constructed
solar irradiance
Beet al. (1995); (b) variation
connection
variation
in Lean
10 Be concentration
and
solar CR
onBeer
ionization,
nuclear
chemical reactions,
ingalactic
et al. (1991);
(c) and
reconstructed
concentration
(which
isfrom
proportional
air
surface
temperature
for
the
northern
hemisphere
from
Joneschanges.
et
processes,
on
planetary
cloudiness
and
global
climate
to CR intensity).
al. (1998). According to Swensmark (2000).
Fig. 8. CR intensity according to Huancayo/Haleakala NM (cut
off rigidity 12.9 GV, normalized to October 1965, curve 2) in comparison with global average of monthly cloud coverage anomalies
(curve 1) for: (a) – high clouds, H>6.5 km, (b) – middle clouds,
6.5 km>H>3.2 km, and (c) – low clouds, H<3.2 km. According to
Marsh and Swensmark (2000a, b).
sity, and with increasing of CR intensity increases air ionization, which leads to increasing of low clouds covering and
corresponding decreasing of the air surface temperature. In
papers Dorman (2005), Belov et al. (2005) were developed
methods of forecasting the expected CR intensity long-term
variation and determining the part of global climate change,
caused by CR influence on the planetary low clouds covering
(from few years up to 11 years ahead).
www.adv-geosci.net/14/281/2008/
References
Beer J., G.M. Raisbeck, and F. Yiou “Time variations of 10Be and solar activity”, i
Sonett, M.S. Giampapa, and M.S. Matthews, University of Arizona Press, 343
3 Conclusions
Belov A.V., L.I. Dorman, R.T. Gushchina, V.N. Obridko, B.D. Shelting, and
expected global climate change by7forecasting of galactic cosmic ray intensit
based on solar magnetic field data”, Adv. Space Res., 35, 491-495 (2005).
We
presented
in this paper
a short Pergamon
description
of 1967.
the main
Chalmers
J.A., Atmospheric
Electricity,
Press,
space
natural
disasters
for
the
Earth’s
civilization.
we conCrutzen P.J., I.S.A. Isaksen, and G.C. Reid “Solar proton events:
stratospheric so
189,inNo.
4201,
457-459
sidered
more
detail
only(1975).
one possible disaster, connected
with space phenomena influence on atmospheric processes:
influence of galactic and solar CR on ionization, nuclear and
chemical reactions, on atmospheric electrical processes, on
planetary cloudiness and global climate changes.
Edited by: P. Lagos
Reviewed by: A. Chilingarian and H. Mavromichalaki
Adv. Geosci., 14, 281–286, 2008
286
L. I. Dorman: Natural hazards for the Earth’s civilization from space
References
Beer, J., Raisbeck, G. M., and Yiou, F.: Time variations of 10 Be
and solar activity, in: The Sun in Time, edited by: Sonett, C. P.,
Giampapa, M. S., and Matthews, M. S., University of Arizona
Press, 343–359, 1991.
Belov, A. V., Dorman, L. I., Gushchina, R. T., Obridko, V. N., Shelting, B. D., and Yanke, V. G.: Prediction of expected global climate change by forecasting of galactic cosmic ray intensity time
variation in near future based on solar magnetic field data, Adv.
Space Res., 35, 491–495, 2005.
Chalmers, J. A.: Atmospheric Electricity, Pergamon Press, 1967.
Crutzen, P. J., Isaksen, I. S. A., and Reid, G. C.: Solar proton events:
stratospheric sources of nitric oxide, Science, 18, 4201, 457–459
(1975).
Dorman, L. I.: Cosmic Ray Variations, Gostekhteorizdat, Moscow,
US Department of Defense, Ohio Air-Force Base, 495 pp., 1957
(english translation: 1958).
Dorman, L. I.: Cosmic Ray Variations and Space Research, Nauka,
Moscow, 1023 pp., 1963a.
Dorman, L. I.: Geophysical and Astrophysical Aspects of Cosmic
Rays, in: Progress in Physics of Cosmic Ray and Elementary
Particles, edited by: Wilson, J. G. and Wouthuysen, S. A., Vol. 7,
North-Holland Publ. Co., Amsterdam, 320 pp., 1963b.
Dorman, L. I.: Meteorological Effects of Cosmic Rays, Nauka,
Moscow, 1972.
Dorman, L. I.: Cosmic Rays: Variations and Space Exploration,
North-Holland Publ. Co., Amsterdam, 1974.
Dorman, L. I.: Variations of Galactic Cosmic Rays, Moscow State
University Press, Moscow, 214 pp., 1975a.
Dorman, L. I.: Experimental and Theoretical Principles of Cosmic
Ray Astrophysics, Fizmatgiz, Moscow, 1975b.
Dorman, L. I.: Cosmic Rays of Solar Origin, in: Summary of Science, Space Investigations, Vol. 12, VINITI, Moscow 1978.
Dorman, L. I.: Cosmic Rays in the Earth’s Atmosphere
and Underground, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht/Boston/London, p. 32+855, 2004.
Dorman, L. I.: Estimation of long-term cosmic ray intensity variation in near future and prediction of their contribution in expected
global climate change, Adv. Space Res., 35, 496–503, 2005.
Dorman, L. I.: Cosmic Ray Interactions, Propagation, and Acceleration in Space Plasmas, Springer, Netherlands, p. 31+842, 2006.
Dorman, L. I.: Cosmic Rays in Magnetospheres of the Earth and
Other Planets, Springer, Netherlands, in press, 2008.
Dorman, L. I. and Miroshnichenko L. I.: Solar Cosmic Rays, Fizmatgiz, Moscow, 508 pp., 1968 (English translation published
for NASA and NSF in 1976 (TT 70-57262/NASA TT F-624),
Washington, D.C.).
Ermakov, V. I.: Lightning iniciation by galactic cosmic rays, Proc.
9th Intern. Conf. Atmosper. Electr., St. Petersburg, 2, 485–488,
1992.
Adv. Geosci., 14, 281–286, 2008
Ermakov, V. I. and Stozhkov, Y. I.: New mechanism of thundercloud and lightning production, Proc. 11th Intern. Conf. Atmosper. Electr., Alabama, USA, 242–245, 1999.
Ermakov, V. I. and Stozhkov, Y. I.: Cosmic rays in the mechanism of
thundercloud production, Proc. 28th Intern. Cosmic Ray Conf.,
Tsukuba, 7, 4157–4160, 2003.
Ermakov, V. I., Bazilevskaya, G. A., Pokrevsky, P. E., and Stozhkov,
Yu. I.: Cosmic rays and ion production in the atmosphere, Proc.
25th Intern. Cosmic Ray Conf., Durbin, 7, 317–320, 1997.
Gurevich, A. V., Carlson, H. C., Medvedev, Yu. V., and Zybin, K.
P.: Kinetic theory of runaway breakdown in inhomogeneous and
thundercloud electric field, Phys. Lett., A282, 180–185, 2001.
Gurevich, A. V. and Milikh, G. M.: Generation of X-rays due to
multiple runaway breackdown inside thunderclouds, Phys. Lett.,
A262, 457–463, 1999.
Gurevich, A. V. and Zybin, K. P.: Runaway breakdown and electric
discharges in thunderstorms, UFN, 171, 11, 1177–1199, 2001.
Gurevich, A. V., Zybin, K. P., and Russel-Dupre, R.: Runaway electron mechanism of air breakdown and preconditioning during
thunderstorms, Phys. Lett., A165, 463–468, 1992.
Gurevich, A. V., Zybin, K. P., and Russel-Dupre, R. A.: Lightning
initiation by simultaneous effect of runaway breakdown and cosmic ray showers, Phys. Lett., A254, 79–87, 1999.
Heath, D. F., Krüger, A. J., and Crutzen, P. J.: Solar proton event:
influence on stratospheric ozone, Science, 197, 886–889, 1977.
Jones, P. D., Briffa, K. R., Barnett, T. P., and Tett, S. F. B.: High resolution paleoclimatic records for the last millennium: interpretation, integration and comparison with general circulation model
control run temperatures, The Holocene, 8, 455–471, 1998.
Lean, J., Beer, J., and Breadley, R.: Reconstruction of solar irradiance since 1610: implications for climate change, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 22, 3195–3198, 1995.
Marsh, N. D. and Swensmark, H.: Low cloud properties influenced
by cosmic rays, Phys. Rev. Lett., 85, 5004–5007, 2000a.
Marsh, N. and Swensmark, H.: Cosmic rays, clouds, and climate,
Space Sci. Rev., 94, 1–2, 215–230, 2000b.
Miroshnichenko, L. I.: Solar Cosmic Rays, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht/Boston/London, 2001.
Miroshnichenko, L. I.: Radiation Hazard in Space, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht/Boston/London, 2003.
Quack, M., Kallenrode, M. B., König, M., et al.: Ground level
events and consequences for stratospheric chemistry, Proc. 27th
Intern. Cosmic Ray Conf., Hamburg, 10, 4023–4026, 2001.
Swensmark, H.: Cosmic rays and Earth’s climate, Space Sci. Rev.,
93, 175–185, 2000.
Usoskin, I. G., Gladysheva, O. G., and Kovaltsov, G. A.: Cosmic
ray induced ionization in the atmosphere: spatial and temporal
changes, J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys., 66, 18, 1791–1796, 2004.
Velinov, P., Nestorov, G., and Dorman, L.: Cosmic Ray Influence
on Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation, Bulgaria Academy
of Sciences Press, Sofia, 1974.
www.adv-geosci.net/14/281/2008/