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At a turning point? Commercial investments and pressures on land in low and middle-income countries Lorenzo Cotula and Thierry Berger, IIED From the mid-2000s, investment boom in agriculture, forestry, mining and petroleum. Contested figures but clear trend Aggregate scale of agribusiness plantation deals smaller than originally thought – but significant increase, often geographically concentrated Concomitant pressures from investments in other sectors, including petroleum, mining and forestry Eg investment in metals exploration increased ten-fold in 20022012, investment in fossil fuels doubled over the same period Enduring misperceptions – eg role of China in Africa Source: based on World Bank data Investment slowdown across the review sectors Eg mining: exploration budgets halved between 2012 and end 2015 Trends in agribusiness plantation deals Source: derived from Land Matrix and GRAIN data On the ground, pressures continue to be felt National elites, long-term processes, closing of the land frontier Many agribusiness plantation deals now at implementation stage Numerous reports of investment-related land conflict (agribusiness, extractives) Pressure on social responsibility budgets Shrinking political space in some contexts Significant developments in investment frameworks Eg national, regional and global frameworks for public-private partnerships in agriculture SDIs promoting agricultural commercialisation, and aiming to link investments in different sectors (eg agri, mining) International investment protection treaties – covering at least 64% agribusiness plantation deals Investment treaty-based investor-state arbitrations in natural resource sectors Source: based on UNCTAD data Continued priority, but shifting contours Implementation phase, themes for research and action (eg “legacy” issues, community grievances) Given long-term prospects, now time to invest in readiness Consider not only agribusiness plantation deals, but also wider processes of agricultural commercialisation involving investments in different segments of the value chain Track cumulative, multi-sector developments in geographic “hotspots”, beyond existing “case study” approaches Monitor new arenas of resource conflict eg growing NR-related investor-state arbitrations with community dimensions Consider shrinking political space, assess options, address risk