Download Co-control of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and

For 2010 EASS Meeting
Co-control of GHGs and Air Pollutants
Under China’s 12th Five-Year Plan
HU Tao
Policy Research Center of
Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP)
Sept 24, 2010, Tsinghua University, Beijing
Outline
Introduction
National Pollution and GHGs
Reduction Program Under China’s
12th Five-Year Plan and implication
for energy sector
Co-control of Greenhouse Gas
Emissions and Other Air Pollutants
Conclusion
2
Introduction
National strategies
Laws
Programs
3
Introduction
National strategy
China’s Agenda 21 and Sustainable
Development as a national strategy
Environmental Protection and population
control as two basic national policies
Scientific Concept of Development and
transmission from pollution heavy, energy and
resource intensive economy to technology and
service oriented economy structure
• From red 1949, to blue 1979 and now to green
4
Introduction
Laws
Energy Saving Law
Renewable Energy Law
Basic Energy Law being revised
Environmental Protection Law
Air Pollution Prevention and Protection
Act
Circular economy law
5
Cleaner production law
Introduction
Programs
11th five year plan
National climate change plan (NCCP)
6
Introduction - 11th Five Year Plan
(2006-2010)
20% energy and GHGs intensity reduction
14.38% by end of 2009
10% of SOx reduction
13.14% by end of 2009
7
Introduction - National Climate
Change
Plan
(NCCP)
Issued on June 5, 2007
Major components
State of Art
impacts of climate
principle and objectives
policy and measures
international cooperation
Key principles
Sustainable development
Mitigation and adaptation
Policy integration and coordination with other sector policies
Technology innovation
Common but differentiated responsibilities
Active international cooperation
8
Introduction - National Climate
Change Plan (NCCP)
Targets
Mitigation
Adaptation
R&D
Public Awareness and local management
9
National Climate Change Plan (NCCP)
Quantitative Targets
Mitigation
• 20% energy intensity reduction during 20062010
• By 2010 renewable energy taking up 10% of
total energy and nuclear energy 4% of total
• By 2010 N2O keeping at the same level of 2005
• Control paddy rice and animal methane
• 50 million ton of carbon sequestration
increasing during 2005-2010
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National Pollution and GHGs
Reduction Program under 12th
five year plan and implication
for energy sector
National Pollution and GHGs Reduction Program under
12th five year plan and implication for energy sector
Draft of 12th five year plan (2011-2015)
SO2 emissions 10%, responsible by MEP
• Power sector and non-power sector
NOx emissions x%, responsible by MEP
• Power sector
• Meeting vehicle emissions standards of G4/Euro IV
PM?
Carbon intensity 20% to reflect 40-45% target by
2020, responsible by NDRC
Renewable energy taking up y% of total energy mix
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by 2015, responsible by NDRC
National Pollution and GHGs Reduction Program under
12th five year plan and implication for energy sector
Reduction approaches
Structure adjustment
• Economy structure
• Energy structure
• Low tech, high tech structure
Efficiency improvement by engineering and management
• Energy-saving, energy efficiency improving
• De-sulfur engineering
• De-nitrogen engineering
Scale control
• Control scale of production by reducing demand and exporting
– Iron and steel, cement, coke etc
– Discouraging exports of high carbon, heavy pollution products
13
National Pollution and GHGs Reduction Program under
12th five year plan and implication for energy sector
Impacts on energy sector
efficiency of energy use to be improved a lot
• the win-win measure for both carbon and sulfur, nitrogen
• the low cost (even benefits) measure from economic aspect
• MIIT is promoting the energy efficiency program for industries
changes in energy use towards lower carbon
• More wind power, solar and small and micro hydro by y%
• More natural gas, oil and biomass
• less coal, from 68% to z%
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National Pollution and GHGs Reduction Program under
12th five year plan and implication for energy sector
Impacts on energy sector
Energy price
• Shadow energy prices increasing
• Energy price still under control by central government
because of social concern and inflation concern
• Governmental command and control interventions to fill
the gap between shadow price and actual price
Fuel imports
• may increasing for energy security reason and rapid
growing conventional vehicles
• may not increasing due to constrains of geo-politics and
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electrical cars growing and renewable growing
National Pollution and GHGs Reduction Program under
12th five year plan and implication for energy sector
Impacts on energy sector
electricity generation built
• Coal based:
– Super-critical, super-super critical and testing IGCC
– phase out the small power plants under 200 MW capacity
• Natural gas based
• Renewable energy
– Wind
– Solar
– Small and micro Hydro
• Nuclear
16
National Pollution and GHGs Reduction Program under
12th five year plan and implication for energy sector
Impacts on energy sector
future energy supply and demand in China
• BAU scenario
• Green scenario
• Brown scenario
Means of implementation
• Moral education
• Mandatory order
• Market force
– Carbon tax
– resources tax
17
National Pollution and GHGs Reduction Program under
12th five year plan and implication for energy sector
Impacts on energy sector
Whom to be involved to implement the program
• Producers
• Consumers
• Exporters, importers and consumers abroad
– 23% of carbon emissions
– 38% of sulfur emissions
– 18% of COD emissions
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Co-control Under China’s 12th FiveYear Plan
What
Why
How
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What is co-control ?
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Concept of co-control
Objective: to maximize net benefits (benefits minus
control costs) by designed control measures
Total costs of control measures of air pollutants and GHGs
Benefits of health, vegetation and global warming as well as
other external benefits
Target: both air pollutants and GHGs
Ways: to actively control both GHGs and local pollutants
To maximize net benefits
Net benefits = Integrated Benefits – Integrated Costs
To maximize it!
Dimensions: technology, project, program, plan, policy
etc
21
Review of co-benefit development in China
History of research
Ancillary benefits estimation with OECD, ECON, SEPA
Shijiazhuang Case, West-east Pipeline Case under support of SEPA, PetroChina
Shanghai Case, Beijing Case, National assessment of co-benefits under
support of USEPA-IES
Shangxi Taiyuan case by CICERO, ECON, NILU etc
GAINS model of China by IIASA, ERI
Panzhihua case study support by OECC
RFF-Harvard, Tsinghua Univ. study
Energy Foundation-Renmin University of China in Henan Province
Co-control policy design by MEP/DRC - ECON/CICERO team
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Review of co-benefit development in China
Stage 0 pre-co-benefit period:
local pollution control policy and climate change
policy were considered independently without links
Stage 1 Ancillary benefit or Secondary benefit
period:
Ancillary benefits or secondary benefits of GHGs
reduction were aware
23
Review of co-benefits development in China
Stage 2 co-benefit measurement period:
it’s realized that local pollution and GHGs are
mutually linked to each other and efforts are made to
measure co-benefits
Stage 3 co-control period:
co-control policies/programs/projects are designed
and proposed in order to maximize co-benefits
co-control policy and projects are designed and
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implemented
Relations between co-benefit and co-control
Energy and
GHGs
Reduction
Co-benefits
Impact analysis of
existing policy/program
Counterbenefits
And seeking net
benefits
Pollution
control
Co-control design for
Policy/Program/project
To maximize it!
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Environmental
Improvement
With maybe
counter-benefits
GHGs reduction
With maybe
Counter-benefits
Co-benefits
Co-control
Co-
Environmental
benefits
Improvement
GHGs
Why co-control?
New situation of energy-saving and
emissions reduction
Good to have control targets of both energysaving and air pollutants in 11th five year plan of
State Council
but, existing potential conflicts between energysaving and air pollutants reductions
• End-of-pipe control technology
• Implemented by NDRC and MEP separately due to
different mandates assigned by State Council
27
Why co-control ?
GHGs control
China’s official commitment by 2020, 40－45％
carbon intensity
How to achieve it by a lower cost way to gain cobenefits?
MEP’s niche in climate regime
CO2+SO2＋NOx + PM and …
Co-control is the best NAMAs for China
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How to co-control
Principle
The fundamental principle we apply for is costbenefit/effective, in terms of control of several
pollutants and GHGs. We believe this principle
should be the base of rational decision-making
under market economy system.
Hypothesis
This study assumes: root-of-pipe control is more
cost-effective than end-of-pipe control of air
pollutants and GHGs, when all of environmental
costs are internalized.
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How to co-control
Policy instrument
to find the right policy to achieve the target and be
coherent and coordinated among existing policies
To avoid high administrative and management costs
To internalize all of the environmental cots to drive from
end-of-pipe technologies to root-of-pipe technologies
Governance support
Implementation rate?
to find a proper institutional arrangement to support the
implementation of policy, structure adjustment and
control measure
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How to co-control in iron and steel sector
单位减排成本
（元/tSO2 eq）
8
钢铁行业技术减排协同控制措施排序
6
6.10
4
2
2.63
3.11
1.99
-0.24 -0.16 -0.15
0
-1.31 -1.30
-1.67 -1.61
0.32
-2.62
-2
技术名称
-4
-5.63 -5.40
-6
31
How to co-control in power sector
36.09
30
20
14.38
10
9.25
1.09
2.99
脱
硫
气
气
烟
烟
脱
硝
代
替
煤
硫
低
燃
烧
氮
改
造
封
汽
器
热
预
空
气
-0.56
低
-0.58
改
变
频
压
通
机
高
流
改
联
产
汽
轮
-1.09
造
-2.61
造
-2.71
电
热
预
警
-3.26
焦
耗
-10
结
能
点
燃
-5.69
CC
S
0
低
单位减排成本（元/SO 2eq）
40
32
How to co-control
Supporting elements
How to choose policy instrument to achieve the
goal of co-control
• Taxation for carbon and sulphur and pricing
How to make institutional arrangements to
ensure the policy to be implemented
• NDRC or MEP?
• NDRC and MEP?
• State Council?
33
Conclusion
Introduction to China’s GHGs and air
pollution strategies, laws and programs
Draft of 12th five year plan and
implications for energy sector
What, why and how to co-control of
GHGs and air pollutants
34
Thanks！
[email protected]
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