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Marketing : Quo Vadis? A Discusion paper By Malcolm Goodman, Lecturer Durham University Business School, Windmill Lane, Durham, DH1 3LB, UK Email [email protected] Keywords: Context; customer-perceived value; customer engagement; customer offering; customer experience; customer satisfaction; marketing trends; marketing tasks. 2 Marketing : Quo Vadis? A Discussion paper Abstract Keywords: Context; customer-perceived value; customer engagement; customer offering; customer experience; customer satisfaction; marketing trends; marketing tasks. This paper seeks to encourage debate as to the true role of marketing in this decade. Is it a function (a skill not always well defined); a philosophy (mantra or real-time belief); or something else entirely? The paper explores these questions and discusses six key trends:- relationship marketing, the use of new technology, the transformation in the concept of customer value, measurement and accountability, innovation and learning and globalisation - that are shaping the evolution of marketing. The paradigm change from a global sellers’ to a global buyers’ market environment presents severe challenges to those charged with the responsibility of managing organisations. Broadly speaking organisations are confronted with two response options. Leave things as they are (usually a least cost response) or face up to seriously thinking about they way they operate. The first response, it is argued, is ill fitted for the challenges presented by strong buyers’ markets. The second requires considerable courage and determination. It involves a dedicated and determined initiative to do something different by seeking to become really marketing oriented. 2 3 The paper presents an example of what organisational troops can understand by managing as well as presenting some thoughts as to the ‘doing’ skills involved in professional marketing practice. Figure 3 presents a graphic diamond view of much of the argument in the paper covering the need to generate customer engagement, deliver customer experience and customer satisfaction and hence customer loyalty. A marketing mix involving a collection of 6Cs has been found, in practice, to be more effective than the traditional 4Ps or 7Ps Four key tasks are identified for marketers: - developing a detailed and deep understanding of current and potential customers, developing a detailed and deep understanding of current and potential competitors, developing a shared perspective of of current and potential competitors, developing a shared perspective on how markets are changing and developing a suitable strategic marketing approach. Introduction and market place context These are 'interesting' times’ for marketers - partly in the sense of the Chinese curse. The challenges they now face include intense competition. Most markets in developed economies have excess supply; blurring technology; new power relationships; globalisation; increasingly sophisticated and demanding customers; and new regulations. The need for marketing has never been greater. 3 4 Yet, this has not led to larger, more powerful or prestigious marketing departments. On the contrary, many firms have reduced their marketing departments. Management consultants talk of 'marketing's mid-life crisis' and of marketing being at the 'crossroads'. This apparent paradox- marketing being more important than ever before but the contribution of marketing departments being critically questioned - ironically reflects the belated triumph of the original marketing concept. Over half a century ago, Peter Drucker ( 2001 ) argued that since the role of business is to create customers, its only two essential functions were marketing and innovation. He wrote, 'Marketing is not a function, it is the whole business seen from the customer's point of view'. As markets have matured and become more competitive, especially during the last two decades, this concept has largely become widely accepted in theory but yet not so widely in terms of practice. Paradigm shift (Sellers’ to buyers’ markets) During the last two decades and at any ever increasing speed, many organisations have experienced a paradigm change from a sellers’ to a buyers’ market environment (Kotler, Keller, Brady, Goodman and Hansen 2009). A sellers’ market is broadly characterised by demand being in excess of supply. Here basic business strategy is to produce more and more and to reduce costs to achieve profitable results. The paradigm response has been termed that of ‘least cost production’. Generally speaking, the provider calls the tune. A buyers’ market environment is significantly different. Here supply exceeds demand and providers are severely challenged to provide customer offerings that customers (whether consumer or business-tobusiness) want to purchase. 4 5 Some companies have benefited from strong sellers’ markets for several decades and then found themselves fiercely challenged by the the consequences of the emergence of strong buyers’ markets within a matter of months. The main challenges come from: Competition that bites Customers (both consumer and business-to-business) having more choice Customers demanding more value as they perceive it for their money The increasing importance of customer-perceived value (Kotler, Keller, Brady, Goodman and Hansen 2009) which has led to the importance of providers achieving the right blend of customer tangible and intangible attributes that deliver a positively differentiated customer offering and hence buying experience. Therefore there is no real separation between ‘products’ and ‘services’ both are intrinsic attributes for a successful market package. A greater need to pay attention to market customisation An increased stress on successful branding The need to secure customer loyalty by a policy of engagement to deliver a sound customer experience Most people now regard it as self-evident that corporate survival and performance depend on the firm's ability to offer superior customer-perceived value offerings than the competition. In the UK, much of the success of astute businesses has been based on the acceptance of this simple, powerful idea, and its influence on the day-to-day behaviour of managers and other employees. In manufacturing, many firms became aware of the importance of the marketing concept too casually and too late . Often, an over-emphasis on cost-cutting (least cost production paradigm approach) may reduce 5 6 the ability to create long-term customer-perceived value. Despite this the philosophy of the marketing concept is emerging intact and, in some quarters, triumphant. Practical expression of the marketing concept In a sellers’ market environment it took some talent (of the wrong kind) to fail. A buyers’ market, on the other hand, demands successful marketing practice. The challenge is how to proceeed from a philosophic approach to an appropriate functional marketing activity. Traditionally the answer to this question has been to direct attention to the marketing mix. Many still advocate the application of the traditional 4Ps (product, place, promotion and price described by McCarthy, 1960). Others expand this to include three extra Ps (people, process and physical evidence) to cater for service markets (Booms and Bitner, 1981). However, just how relevant are these mix variants to the pressures facing providers in buyers’ markets? Can they form the basis of a sound marketing plan when they do not directly point to the importance of covering contextual factors (e.g. a sellers’ or a buyers’ market) and fully account for the thrusts of the competition? In addition, are providers really marketing oriented or still largely least cost production oriented? Or, perhaps somewhere along this continuum? In order to progress the search for an effective marketing mix it is useful to briefly discuss some other approaches. A popular one amongst many academics is that of the Service Dominant Logic ( Lusch and Vargo 2004 ). However, the S-D logic could be seen as just another restatement of ideas from earlier phases in the development of marketing thought, such as services marketing, relationship marketing, market 6 7 orientation, network perspectives, integrated marketing communications (IMC) and the resource based view of the firm. It does not place the same emphasis on the equal importance of both tangible (‘product’) and intangible (‘service’) attributes that ‘mix’ to form a customer offering. From a practical point of view the approach needs to be further refined to appeal broadly to practitioners. An interesting approach that developed out of some work by Kashani and Turpin 1995 of the IMD in Switzerland can be summarised as the 6C’s approach. This marketing mix model calls for practitioners to pay close attention to context, customers, competition, cash, channels and company style (least cost or market oriented). The 6Cs model performs well in the field as it directly addresses key practical concerns of many providers (Kotler, Keller, Brady, Goodman and Hansen). View from the top Figure 1 Businessmans’ compass For an organisation to fully live out the holistic marketing approach to conducting business it needs to be headed by a chief executive officer (CEO) who appreciates the underying philosophy of marketing. This is to provide what customers value. It usually requires a CEO to design, develop and spearhead the introduction of a new corporate culture. It is about managing change. Figure 1 shows a simplified 7 8 businessman’s compass that works in sellers’ markets (left hand side) and which tends to encourage the development of strong finance/production fiefdoms. The right hand side of Figure 1 presents a different picture. Here the functions at all points of the businessman’s compass are of equal importance. The task of the CEO is to charge the marketing function with the responsibility of discovering what customers value and then co-ordinating all the firms functions to work as a team to deliver the right customer offering. This requires considerable skill and may take sometime to successfully achieve. This paper outlines some ideas affecting, in theory and practice, the development of functional marketing. However, progress will be checked if organisations are slow or reluctant to seriously adopt the holistic marketing concept. This will involve a determined intent to change organisational modus operandi and requires a new approach to management. Unlike marketing, which can be defined both as a philosophy and as a functional activity, which can be communicated to everyone in an organisation, few organisations can define management. So, if an organisation wants to change its culture to a marketing one it will be severely handicapped if it cannot define management in the same way that it can define marketing. In the author’s days as a professional footballer players worked in a climate where teamwork was encouraged throughout all clubs. This involved players, administrators, crowd marshalls, pitch technicians, programme sellers etc. all working in unison. They all knew what the club definition of management was and their part in club activities. Similarly, military organisations have to adopt a common understanding of management. All hands on a navy ship are open to the same danger and have to work as a TEAM (together everyone achieves more). 8 9 Figure 2 Defining Management as managing Figure 2 presents a possible definition of management, or better still managing, in which a CEO could work to transform the nature of an organisation’s culture to one that is marketing oriented. Table 1 presents a summary of key terms for the marketing mix approach described in this paper. Marketing as a process, not a function, that needs a market-oriented CEO Inherent in the marketing concept is the idea that market orientation and the creation of customer value are the concern of everyone in the firm, not just of those in the marketing function. The dramatic improvements in productivity, 'total quality', and customer service since the late 1990s, have cut across all business functions operations, logistics, R & D, sales, IT, and so on. Until recently, marketing people have, if anything, been less involved in these developments than people in other functions: the impetus has tended to come from the quality movement in operations management. Table 1 New Terminology Term CPV Meaning Customer perceived value 9 10 Cash Channels Company Context Customer engagement Customer experience Customer loyalty Customer offering Managing Marketing communications TEAM Revenue - Expenditure Distribution logistics and marketing communications Business orientation paradigm (cost reduction or market orientation) Buyers’ or sellers’ market environment Seeking an interactive communication relationship with customers Providing a positively differentiated CPV customer offering Customer repeat buys branded customer offering Defined as a CPV offering that is a mix of tangible and intangible attributes Better word than management as places the accent on marketing action (concepy and function) rather than control Refers to all forms of marketing communication Together everyone achieves more A further factor has been the increasing pressure for accountability ( Farquhar2009 ). Arguably, marketing people could and should have done more to demonstrate the effectiveness of their decisions and expenditures, although it is the nature of marketing that much of its value is inherently non-quantifiable - especially for those activities aimed at building long-term value and market position. Either way, marketing's failure to prove its value to the accountants has weakened its influence and encouraged the shift of resources towards activities with demonstrable short-term gains, such as price promotions. A similar worrying trend in many firms is the continuing under-investment in R & D (Moncada-Paternò-Castello, Ciupagea, Smith, Tübke and Tubbs 2010). Organisations are now seeing the long-heralded arrival of marketing as a holistic process, a way of running the whole business. Successful marketing today involves all functions within the firm - especially the marketing function, which has a distinct role in areas such as customer communications, market research and analysis, and a 10 11 shared TEAM role in such areas as new product development, pricing, and competitive strategy. This paper discusses six major trends in marketing. All of these are having a major impact on practioners but also affect other functions. Finally the specific question of the future of marketing as a function is addressed. The six key trends or issues are: 1. relationship marketing 2. the use of new technology 3. customer value and the morphing of ‘product’ and ‘service’attributes 4. measurement and accountability 5. innovation and learning 6. globalisation 1. Relationship marketing An important trend, especially in mature markets, is the growing emphasis on customer retention and 'relationship marketing'. In many new markets, the increasing cost and difficulty of attracting new customers means that it is more profitable to concentrate on retaining a long-term relationship with existing ones. Increasingly, firms are identifying customer relationships as among their most valuable assets. Of course this depends on the level of customer loyalty, which varies greatly between different industries. But, even in industries characterised by low brand loyalty, there is now a recognition while customer offerings may come and go, successful brands can 11 12 have a longer life and even a marginal increase in customer loyalty and a high longterm value. The issue is complicated by two opposing trends: Most markets are becoming more competitive with increasingly sophisticated customers and many similar customer offerings ranging from generic drugs, memory chips, and PC clones, to corporate banking, mortgages, premium private label soft drinks, and home-delivered pizzas. Especially during recession, there is a limit to the price premium that can be carried even by strong brands such as BMW or Bosch. In this sense, customer-switching costs and brand loyalty have never been lower. The result is that as customer offering differentiation becomes harder, the focus tends to default to the least cost paradigm approach, rather than a growing appreciation of the importance of practising focused customer- perceived value marketing. At the same time in many markets - especially business-to-business markets – there is a growth of closer, longer-term partnerships between firms within the same value chain. This would apply both to companies such as DuPont or Michelin and their major automotive customers, and also to consumer goods manufacturers like Danone, Nestlé and Unilever. These partnerships involve close collaboration on new customer offering development and also increase the interdependence of information systems and other processes. A major trend in supply chain management has been to reduce the number of suppliers and to build a reliable value chain. All of this involves activity to increase customer-switching 12 13 costs, justified by the increased competitiveness of the coalition. One effect of these and other strategic alliances has been the increasing blurring of industry and market boundaries (as in IT and financial services). These two opposite trends have led to a shift backwards in emphasis from the marketing function per se to a more sales-based transaction approach especially in key account management. It is also common in tough market conditions for provider organisations to panic and seek to buy business by discounting with the attendant risks of damage to brand reputation, future strategy options and bottom - line earnings. Meanwhile, within many marketing departments organisational changes have occurred with brand or product (customer offering) managers tending to be replaced by more market-oriented category or market managers. For instance, in consumer packaged goods, today's category manager is part of a multifunctional team working closely over time with the firm's main retail trade customers. In this sense, fast moving consumer goods marketing has become more like business-to-business marketing, especially in areas such as groceries with high retail concentration. At the same time, many consumer marketing companies are also seeking to build direct long-term relationships with individual consumers via database marketing, one of the main uses of new technology. This too is reducing the gap between consumer and business-to-business marketing. 2. The use of new technology 13 14 Many of the trends, challenges, and opportunities in marketing relate to new developments in information and communication technology (ICT). Some of the organisational changes taking place in marketing - as in other functions - are closely related to the use of ICT. The routine use of telephone, fax, voice mail, electronic mail video conferencing and essentially the internet, are crucial for the success of innovative organisations, especially those with global reach. In addition, marketing has some unique new opportunities in the use of ICT. These can be grouped under two headings: database marketing and new media opportunities. Database marketing Closely related to the trend toward relationship marketing is the increasing use of long-term marketing programmes using large databases (Zahay, Schibrowsky 2009). Charlotte and Database marketing has three key characteristics: 1. Increased targeting in terms of either market segments or individual customers and prospects: the database enables the marketer to customise marketing communications. 2. Increased emphasis on marketing as an interactive process through time: the database records not only which communications have been directed at each customer or segment, but also what the response was, which may in turn influence the choice of subsequent communications. 3. Although traditionally associated with direct mail, database marketing today involves a range of media combining direct personalised media - mail, telephone, 14 15 personal selling - with direct-response advertising (e.g. with coupons or freephone numbers). Marketing has in the past been comparatively slow in the adoption of ICT. However, this is now changing with the growth of database marketing. New media opportunities – from mass broadcasting to personal engagement Marketing also has some emerging opportunities from new media, especially the internet (Tăranu, Danciu, Traşă, Nicolae, and Lăzăroiu 2011). Today everyone can be a marketer. Never before has it been possible for people to communicate their judgements on provider’s offers on such a massive scale. The age of blogs, forum postings, reviews and comments on social media platforms such as Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter, probably generate more marketing messages than are broadcast by marketing departments. This is the essence of real marketing. Providers have to progress from mass communication to the new paradigm of permitting existing and potential customers to have an active role in the communication. This places the emphasis on direct customer engagement and conversation. Attentive listening by organisations will provide the opportunity to identify, produce and test key customer-perceived value attributes as they fashion their customer offerings. Progressive developments in the traditional media - print, direct mail, and notably (in the UK) radio - all of which are able to deliver audiences which are far more segmented than for television (Stephen and Galak 2009). Opportunities in new media 15 16 include 'electronic brochures', home-shopping via interactive TV, video on demand, and so on. This will pose a threat to commercial TV channels and also to traditional advertising agencies who are already having to adapt to a more fragmented media regime. It will also impact on channel logistics and distribution, as items are increasingly mailed, home-delivered, or collected by consumers from a convenient pick-up point. The long-term effects of these changes will be substantial and marketers need to start exploring them - as both threats and opportunities - now. 3. Customer value and the morphing of the terms ‘product’ and ‘service’ into the term of ‘customer offering.’ Also linked to relationship marketing is the increasing focus on providing customerperceived value throughout the organisation. The clearest symbol of this trend has been the high profile programmes of total quality such as Kaizen (or continuous improvement), and business process re-engineering. Built into all these developments is the belief that customer satisfaction is the key determinant of long-term market success (Po-Tsang Chen and Hsin-Hui Hu 2010). This includes the idea that the ultimate judges of quality are customers not company designers. However, intangible service attributes of tangible product attributes (Hueiju and Wenchang are equal importance with 2009). This reflects the recognition that manufacturers also need to accept that their customers judge them on delivery performance, responsiveness, friendliness, accurate invoicing, and so on. 16 17 Internal marketing Within firms, the idea has gained credence that all departments - even those which have no direct contact with external customers - have their own internal customers (Wieseke, Ahearne, Lam and Dick, 2009). Some firms have formalised this through written service contracts between departments. As a result, the concept of customer service is starting to run through entire businesses (Aburoub, Hersh and Kalil, 2011). Innovations in customer service include the growing provision of unconditional service guarantees and increasing focus on 'service recovery' - the handling of complaints and service failures: the evidence is that customers whose complaints are well handled can end up more loyal than before the service failure (Engelen and Brettel, 2011). 4. Measurement and accountability Another related trend is the increasing emphasis on measurement and financial accountability in marketing (Stewart 2009) with its emphasis on measuring the response - or at least the measurable response - to each marketing activity and using the acquired knowledge to adapt further communications to the same customer or segment (Ganesh and Paswan 2010, McDonald, 2010). Measures of market response and customer loyalty can also be used to allocate priorities between different types of activity. For instance, the database can help marketers assess the long-term value of different types of customer or even customers gained through different media and marketing communications activities. Another effect has been to encourage firms to allocate marketing resources towards those activities with quantifiable results, such as short-term price promotions. It may 17 18 also have become harder to justify investments in long-term brand building if provider organisations allow the least cost paradigm to assume too heavier influence on their functional marketing. Brand equity As a counter to these pressures for financial accountability, there has been much interest in the idea of brand equity, i.e. that strong established brands are valuable assets (Verbeeten snd Vijn 2010). Further, there have been numerous attempts to place a financial value on these assets, especially in the UK where the accounting rules allow such brand valuations to be included in the balance sheet. However, progress has been slow for two reasons. First, as with any asset that is not actively traded (e.g. shares in large public companies) valuing a brand inherently involves having to make subjective judgements about future cash flows or profits. The valuation also depends on its purpose, e.g. acquisition, balance sheet, or internal management. Moreover, in the case of brands arbitrary judgements have to be made about separating the value of the brand from the rest of the business. This is especially problematic for corporate house brands (Shamma and Hassan, 2011). Second, it is difficult to standardise brand equity measurement or valuation. This perhaps reflects marketers' traditional obsession with being different and original, resulting in a proliferation of sometimes conflicting definitions, methods and labels. The resulting confusion has, arguably, reduced the credibility and influence of the marketing discipline; in contrast to the accountants - despite also facing conceptual 18 19 problems, for instance over the use of language and methods. Marketing people could learn a useful lesson from the accountants' ability to sing from the same song book. While it may be a mistake to believe that we will ever devise a valid method for estimating the value of brand equity, this does not justify today's total lack of standardisation. Marketers should start by developing some standard measures and definitions, as an aid to clear analysis and discussion. This especially applies to firms managing the same brands across many countries. Electronic data sources There has been more progress in other areas of marketing measurement. In particular, our ability to measure short-term market response has been greatly helped by the increasing availability of electronic data sources, notably retail checkout scanned data in packaged goods (Ketikidis, Kontogeorgis, Stalidis, and Kaggelides 2010). Another interesting development is the use of 'single-source' data, consumer panels which measure both purchases and media exposure for the same consumers. In many firms, the marketers now have more data than they can assimilate and are looking towards expert systems and other techniques to extract useful information. Measuring long-term advertising effects One of the hardest activities to justify within a regime of quantitative measurement and accountability is long-term media advertising. In the UK there has been extensive work over the years trying to estimate advertising effectiveness, second only to the United States in terms of sheer research volume. Since 1980, the Institute of Practitioners in Advertising (IPA) has run a competition giving awards to 19 20 documented case histories. Since 1990, the IPA awards have included a category called 'longer and broader advertising effects'. Despite such well-publicised initiatives, it is inherently difficult in contemporary depressed global buyers’markets to quantify the full long-term effects of marketing strategy and advertising (Ataman, Van Heerde and Mela 2010; Pergelova, Prior and Rialp 2010). This will always remain an area for informed business judgement rather than mere technical optimisation. 5. Innovation and learning Today's emphasis on innovation and learning has several implications for marketing. In new product (customer offering) development, speed is now seen as crucial, especially in technology-intensive industries. If anything, the importance of being first to market may even have been overstated: the evidence is that the long-term winners in emerging markets are not necessarily the pioneers, but rather the players that develop and dominate the market during its crucial second phase of 'early growth'. Innovative pioneer companies, such as Apple, (especially in the post Steve Jobs era) need to avoid any temptation to become complacent. This again relates to organisational learning. The pioneer has the opportunity to pre-empt all later entrants, but is also more likely to make mistakes in the design or marketing of the new customer offering. Later entrants have almost as much ability to learn from the pioneer's mistakes as the pioneer itself, and at much lower cost. The emphasis on speed to market will rightly continue but there may be a trend towards more frequent, incremental attribute improvements (as in Japan) and in some cases, a little more caution by thoroughly testing a customer offering 20 and its 21 marketing prior to full launch. However, once the new customer offering and its marketing mix are ready for launch, the international roll-out is likely to be very fast if not concurrent. In other words, the emphasis will be on speed as well as on 'getting it right', but focusing as much on shortening the 'time to peak sales' (via fast market penetration) as on further shortening the pre-launch 'time to market'. Learning about market response Innovation learning and speed are not just passing fads, they are likely to be a dominant feature of management in most businesses for the foreseeable future (O'Connor 2009). A continuing trend away from slow, large-scale, step-by-step market research is likely towards a range of more responsive approaches. These will still include techniques such as focus groups, conjoint analysis, market response modelling, and the extensive analysis of consumer behaviour that is part of successful database marketing. In addition, however, the approach today increasingly involves working directly with customers, especially with those customers who tend to lead their industries or - in the case of consumer markets - those who tend to be early 'adopters' or 'opinion formers'. Companies which work closely with such customers may be in a stronger position to sense new trends, and to distinguish these from fads. A related trend is the growing use of free-phone advice numbers, prize-draw questionnaires, and the like, to encourage direct communication with consumers. There is also increasing willingness to do experimental or even 'expeditionary' marketing. The former refers to controlled incremental experiments in the real market, with line extensions, trial price packages, and so on. Major retailers have greatly 21 22 benefited from an ability to conduct low-cost marketing experiments giving detailed confidential data on market response. Expeditionary marketing refers to a willingness to try more radical customer offerings and marketing mix activities (Hamel and Prahalad 1991, 1993) Paradoxically perhaps, this approach has been a feature of Japanese industries like consumer electronics, mainly noted for their success at continuous incremental customer offering innovation. In fact, this is less of a paradox than it might seem, for two reasons. First, such incremental improvements in Japan are not random, but are sequenced to take the firm along a planned trajectory of performance and cost. Each project is judged as much by the learning and capabilities which allow the occasional bolder step. Second, both approaches - incremental and expeditionary - are based on the idea, that the way to learn about market response is to keep launching new customer offerings in the real market. A classic case of expeditionary marketing was the Sony Walkman, which was developed in response to a bold hunch, not because of an perceived gap identifiable from market research. This more entrepreneurial perspective reflects the view that, while market research is good at describing what customers think, feel, and do today, and is therefore essential for suggesting and testing possible fine-tuning improvements, research cannot reliably predict how the market will respond to a radical new customer offering such as a personal stereo. Even a new approach to a service market, such as internet banking, uses technology with which consumers are already very familiar. In this situation, crucial marketing skills still include the use of diagnostic research, but also requires the communication of the customer-perceived 22 23 value of conceptually new customer offerings in solving customer problems. This necessitates learning from the market response more efficiently and faster than the competition. 6. Globalisation Finally, all these trends are occurring in an increasingly global context. There has been genuine progress at reducing trade barriers between countries, especially within Europe. Many of the issues were controversially discussed in Levitt's classic Harvard Business review article 'the Globalization of Markets' in 1983 ( Hollis, 2011). In high-technology industries, the main drivers behind globalisation are cost efficiency and knowledge sharing. The economics favour players with high expenditure on R&D and customer offering innovation, and with production economies of scale, so that fixed costs are spread over a global market including North America, Europe and Asia. To achieve this combination, firms need to invest heavily in global customer-perceived value oriented marketing sub functions such as distribution, sales, and service provision. Industries showing this pattern include consumer electronics, cars, pharmaceuticals, IT, aerospace, defence, and engineering. Much of the mighty German and Japanese manufacturing sectors has been based on the combination of high domestic R&D together with global distribution logistics and the use of locally adapted functional marketing activities. For somewhat different reasons, many luxury brands and an increasing number of service based customer offering businesses are also becoming global and this trend seems likely to continue. The reasons vary, typically including some cost efficiency and shared learning (as in high-technology industries), e.g. the development of a new 23 24 perfume, a new quick-service restaurant format, or an airline reservation system. In addition, there may be some direct benefit from the use of a global brand, because of its luxury connotations (Chanel, Rolls-Royce), associations with international youth (Levis, Pepsi, Swatch, Benetton) or just because of familiarity and reliability (Holiday Inn). Managing marketing across borders There is no clear separation between international marketing (as opposed to a few export sales) and the rest of international management. Among the multinationals, the trend is towards organisations structured into businesses aimed at global or especially for packaged goods - regional markets (e.g. the European businesses of Heineken’s beer and Mars' pet food business) rather than the traditional collection of national businesses reporting to national general managers. Nevertheless, organising for transnational operations remains problematic and most chief executives see it as an area for further improvement. Within marketing, a particular issue is the balance between global or regional and local branding and marketing. Another less widely discussed issue is pricing: as national barriers and shipping costs decrease, we are likely to see a reduction in price differences. This is a thorny problem in international marketing and a source of some conflict and tension within transnational businesses. The future of marketing as a function Six current trends or issues in marketing have been highlighted: relationship marketing; the use of the new technology; customer value and the blurring of product 24 25 and service; measurement and accountability; innovation and learning; and globalisation. These are all impacting upon both the marketing function and other functions. In addition , the broader issue that - partly because the marketing concept is now so widely accepted and is increasingly being implemented across all the functions within the firm - the specific role of marketing as a separate function has come under question. What does all this mean for marketing, and for the future of marketing as a function? Perhaps the main implication is that there is likely to be a continuing increase in the importance of marketing as a philosophy and a way of running the business, hopefully combined with a decrease in its importance as a separate function. The competitive pressure for firms to be market-oriented and responsive will, if anything, escalate even further. This will mean that organisational changes that increase the amount of direct customer contact within all functions and at the top of the organisation will become essential. A notable feature of Germany's extremely successful mid-sized engineering companies is that they are run by people with a solid knowledge of technology who also spend a high proportion of their time working directly with customers. Another aspect of market orientation will be the increasing dissemination of headline information about customer satisfaction and market performance throughout the organisation. The need for marketing as a function will continue. However, it is unlikely that there will be a return to large corporate marketing departments and even within individual businesses and business units, the number of career marketing people on the payroll may be small. The trend seems to be towards sub-contracting much of the detailed 25 26 research, analysis, and in some cases even the execution of marketing to specialist agencies, perhaps including ex-employees working from home. Firms will from time to time use such agencies on a one-off basis for ad hoc projects, but the trend will be towards longer-term relationships. This set up will provide a good blend of mutual understanding, specialist expertise, knowledge of the particular market context, and low fixed costs for the firm. For those marketing people who continue operating within the firm's marketing department, the challenge now is to become more efficient and accountable, to spend more time in direct contact with customers - both direct trade or industrial purchasing customers and also final consumers or end-users - and to work more closely with their colleagues from other functions (especially finance, production/supply and HRM) and increasingly from other countries as well. There is also a challenging and crucial task for marketing people to become fully involved in managing the customer database by working closely with the various specialists involved in extracting usable information from database market research, modelling, and with the development of integrated marketing communications mixes. To succeed, they will need a blend of human, analytical and time management skills. Thinking strategically The need for time management skills relates to the single biggest challenge - and opportunity - for the marketing function: to rise above the day-to-day and start thinking more strategically. 26 27 This is much harder to achieve today than even only five or ten years ago. The trends described mean that the marketing task has become more complex. The rate of change in customer demands, markets, and technology has increased. Additionally relationships with customers, outside agencies, other functions and colleagues from other countries are time-consuming. So too are some of the planning and control systems resulting from the emphasis on measurement and accountability. At the same time, the number of people in marketing departments has decreased as part of the general downsizing of many firms. The net effect - a more complex task done by fewer people, but it is believed that in their case it raises a particular threat to the long-term success of the firm because of marketing's role as the main interface with the contextual factors affecting the market environment. Sound marketing managers have a close and detailed knowledge of the market; a holistic understanding of he firm's competitive strengths and weaknesses; a thought- through view of the external threats and especially opportunities it faces; and a well considered perspective on an appropriate longer-term marketing strategy. If the day-to-day pressures prevent the development of this knowledge and vision, the whole organisation can become purely tactical, reactive and regress to a purely cost driven transactional approach to business. One effect of time and performance pressures is that, although the need to be outward-looking is universally recognised, it is hard to find the time to put this into practice. This includes time with today's customers and time analysing today's competitors - their structures, strategies, capabilities, priorities, and internal financial performance. But, perhaps even more important is the need to spend time developing 27 28 a better shared understanding of the way the firm's markets may develop in the future, and who its competitors will be tomorrow. What almost destroyed IBM was not Honeywell and Univac but DEC, Apple and Microsoft. What is threatening CocaCola is not only Pepsi-Cola but now also Cott, which makes the concentrate for premium private label colas such as Sainsbury's Classic Cola in the UK. Four Key Tasks For Marketing People Todays marketing practitioners must find a way to rise above the day-to-day pressures and grasp the importance of four key tasks: 1. Develop a detailed and deep understanding of their current customers and prospects. Much of this should also come from direct contact, especially with leading-edge customers. Some should also come from ad hoc background research on new issues, values, and trends. (Such research may take courage to justify in today's environment as it neither exploits the main data sources nor is it immediately actionable). 2. Similarly, develop a deep and shared understanding of today's competitors. A good mechanism for achieving such understanding shared within the management team, is to conduct a structured role-plays of key competitors. Another, especially in consumer markets, is to 'reverse-engineer' the competitors’ marketing communications mix material. 3. Third, and more difficult: develop a similarly deep and shared perspective on how the market may change and develop in the future. What are likely to be the new 28 29 threats and opportunities? What new issues are just over the horizon? Who will be tomorrow's customers, competitors, and channels? What will be the new applications, the new product/customer offering technologies? 4. Finally, develop a strategic marketing perspective on what the firm should do to achieve its objectives, based on an understanding of its current and future markets and capabilities. The issue here is to become more proactive and seek to do some 'market driving' as opposed to being 'market driven'. Summary and Conclusion This paper has sought to encourage debate as to the true role of marketing in this decade. Is it merely a function (a skill not always well defined)? Or a philosophy (mantra or real-time belief)? Or something else entirely? The paper explored these themes and discussed six key trends (relationship marketing, the use of new technology, the transformation in the concept of customer value, measurement and accountability, innovation and learning, globalisation) that are shaping the evolution of marketing. The paper concluded by presenting four key tasks (developing a detailed and deep understanding of current and potential customers, developing a detailed and deep understanding of current and potential competitors, developing a shared perspective on how markets are changing, developing a suitable strategic marketing approach in the light of this) that all marketing practitioners should pursue. 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