* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download Impact of Climate Change on South Africa`s
Climate engineering wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
German Climate Action Plan 2050 wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate governance wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on humans wikipedia , lookup
Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on Australia wikipedia , lookup
Climate change, industry and society wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change wikipedia , lookup
Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup
Years of Living Dangerously wikipedia , lookup
Impact of Climate Change on South Africa’s Future Trade Relations Dr Brendan Vickers Chief Director: Research and Policy – ITED Department of Trade and Industry Presentation to the Portfolio Committee on Trade and Industry, Cape Town 11 November 2011 Trade and Climate Linkages • Climate change physically affecting trade (patterns and volumes). • Trade affecting climate change: – Directly: international transport contributing to GHG; – Indirectly: trade-induced growth affecting production and policy priorities. • Climate change policies affecting trade. • Trade policies as mechanisms to address climate change. 2 Context for UNFCCC Negotiations • Trade not formally part of UNFCCC agenda. • But UNFCCC, KP and Bali Action Plan (1b-vi) on economic and social consequences of response measures to mitigate climate change, i.e. measure to address climate change may imply changes in the conditions for trade. • Not only an issue for oil-exporting economies, but all developing countries. • Shifting global competitiveness from North to South is the appropriate context to understand the response measures debate (same as WTO’s DDA). 3 Climate Policies Affecting Trade • Border carbon adjustments (to prevent “leakage” of trade to more carbon-intensive economies). • Subsidies (affecting production costs of climatefriendly technologies; allocating free allowances in emissions trading schemes). • NTBs (public and private) – technical regulations and product carbon footprint (PCF) standards. • Bunker fuels (aviation and maritime). 4 Challenge 1: Carbon-intensive Exports Rank 2010 Product Proportion Growth Name %Total 1 Basic non-ferrous metals 39.40% 43.19% 2 Basic iron & steel 13.02% 23.75% 3 Motor vehicles, parts & accessories 10.27% 9.19% 4 Machinery & equipment 7.03% 9.91% 5 Basic chemicals 5.73% 11.34% 6 Food 3.67% 4.03% 7 Other industries 3.39% -2.13% 8 Coke & refined petroleum products 2.55% -8.67% 9 Paper & paper products 2.24% 8.03% 10 Other chemicals & man-made fibers 1.95% -3.70% Source: Quantec, 2011 2009-2010 Challenge 2: Geography (i.e. trade-weighted distance) Case 1: South Africa and BCAs • No current BCAs, although proposals in OECD: – America Clean Energy and Security Act (ACESA); – EU 3rd Phase ETS: 164 sectors covering 80% of its imports; – BCA pressures in Canada, Australia, Japan… • But country/sector caveats to ACESA: – Multilateral treaty with USA-equivalent economy-wide binding targets for emissions reduction; – LDCs (e.g. Lesotho); – Bilateral or plurilateral sector agreements with USA; – Sector > GHG intensity than USA. 7 South African Exports of Sensitive Products to the EU, 2007-2009 8 Impact on EU-SA Trade? • TDCA, GSP means lower trade barriers into EU market • Raises trade barriers relative to our competitors. • Impact on current trade negotiations (e.g. EPA)? • Targets: mining and beneficiated minerals, manufactured goods, food and tobacco. • ICTSD: 28.1% of our exports to the EU will attract taxes, with 30.75% of exports destined for EU. • SARi: potential cost of EU/USA BCAs to SA exporters could rise to over US$720 million per annum based on current exports. • Most affected are gold, platinum, iron and steel. 9 Case 2: South Africa and PCF Standards • PCF standards focus on the amount of carbon (GHGs) emitted in the life-cycle of a product to control trade in “embodied carbon”. • Unlike BCAs, cover consumer goods, not commodities. • Predominantly food items and textiles. • SARi: value of trade estimated to be at risk of loss as a result of private carbon labels is US$63.3 billion, largely in food products to the EU. • Wine exports: bulk exports risk job losses and R400 million revenues for packaging/upstream industry by May 2012. 10 Towards COP17/CMP7? • Adopt work programme and establish Forum on Response Measures. • Build “mutual supportiveness” between the UNFCCC and WTO regimes. • Advance SA’s position on the above matters. 11 QUESTIONS? [email protected] 12