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Benchmarking, Better Beta and Beyond Our survey of 51 institutional investors highlights a range of issues with traditional benchmarks including large cap, sector and regional biases. European institutions in particular have started to explore alternative benchmarks and smart beta strategies to overcome these limitations. However, the first generation of such alternative approaches have their own drawbacks. Persistent and basic factor exposures explain the vast majority of returns. Limited transparency, a lack of broad understanding and modest liquidity are also cited as concerns. We explore two novel approaches to active equity management that offer a way to address a number of these issues. This is for investment professionals only and should not be relied upon by private investors Contents Benchmarking, Smart Beta and the evolution of active management p3 The rise of alternative approaches p6 Smart Beta p7 Alternative Equity Benchmarks p9 So what next? p10 Conclusions p13 Executive Summary 1 In a Fidelity Worldwide Investment sponsored research study about half of the institutions interviewed have discussed or investigated the possibility of moving away from traditional benchmarks, including 22% of the Asian institutions and 78% of institutions in Europe. However, less than 8% of actively managed assets are currently run against alternative benchmarks. Investors cited a number of concerns about market capitalisation weighted indices including their bias towards large caps, certain sectors and regions as some of the practical issues with traditional indices. In addition, there are a number of conceptual and empirical limitations often highlighted by academics, including: poor risk-adjusted returns versus alternative benchmarks, a lack of consideration of correlations between stocks and a tendency to overweight overpriced stocks and to carry a momentum bias. In the last few years there has been significant focus on exploring the value that nontraditional approaches can add. Alternative approaches aim to overcome the issues with traditional market cap-weighted indices and can be deployed as benchmarks or prepackaged low cost ‗smart beta‘. A first generation of alternative benchmark approaches have their own drawbacks. Persistent and basic factor exposures explain the vast majority of returns. A lack of transparency, liquidity in some instances and general understanding of alternative benchmarks are also cited as concerns by investors. We explore two novel approaches to active equity management that could offer a way to address a number of these issues: 1] the separation of a stock selection process from a weighting methodology to reduce acute factor exposures; this is most appropriate for systematic disciplines. 2] Unconstrained portfolio management where positions are sized without reference to a benchmark and factor exposures are deliberate and fully owned. Ultimately, all options will be judged on an opportunity cost basis versus market cap indices and should deliver superior risk-adjusted returns in the medium to long term if they are to be successful. Author: Hiten Savani Investment Director [email protected] 1 Greenwich Associates, on behalf of Fidelity Worldwide Investment, conducted interviews with 51 institutions, 28 in Asia and 23 in Europe, with over $1 trillion in total assets under management. Interviews focused on understanding investors‘ current use of equity benchmarks, specific issues with the indices they are currently using and expectations for change. Benchmarking, Smart Beta and the evolution of active management In an ideal world, long-run investment objectives determine strategic asset allocation and the characteristics of the individual asset class strategies that form the portfolio building blocks. In such a world expected risk and return - both for the total portfolio and each of the building blocks - are managed in unison with the aim to deliver the long-run objective. In the real world there are a number of issues that restrict assets being managed in such a perfectly tailored fashion. Whilst strategic asset allocation is increasingly being driven by the specific requirements of asset owners, aligning the characteristics of each asset class building block to the overall investment objective is challenging. Often management of such sub-portfolios is outsourced to specialists. This results in sharing the risk and return objective and benchmark of the building block with other investors in the strategy. Whilst asset owners can often align risk and return, benchmarks can present a more fundamentally challenging issue. A survey of institutional investors From May to June 2013, Greenwich Associates, on behalf of Fidelity Worldwide Investment, conducted interviews with 51 institutions, 28 in Asia and 23 in Europe, with over $1trillion in total assets under management. Interviews were conducted with sovereign wealth funds and other government-affiliated investors, pension funds, insurance companies, endowments, and foundations. Interview topics focused on understanding investors‘ current use of equity benchmarks, specific issues with the indices they are currently using and expectations for change. The results of the study show that institutional equity investors in Asia and Europe see significant weaknesses in traditional, market capitalisation weighted benchmarks. In response, European investors have begun to explore alternative benchmarks and other approaches to performance measurement. Asian institutions, however, are primarily staying the course with standard indices— for now. Of course, traditional benchmarks like the FTSE 100 and the MSCI World Index remain the standard for most institutional investors. Among the 23 European institutions participating in the study, three-quarters of assets are managed against market-cap weighted benchmarks without any customisation. In Asia that share is even larger: among the 28 Asian institutional investors in the study, 87% of total assets are managed against traditional benchmarks, including 100% of Asian pension fund assets. About half of these institutions, however, are investigating the possibility of moving away from traditional benchmarks, including 22% of the Asian institutions and an impressive 78% of institutions in Europe. Two important drivers of this shift are: Firstly, a growing number of investors in Europe are managing assets without a formal benchmark; currently 13% of assets fall into this category. This practice has also been adopted by a smaller number of investors in Asia, where 11% of assets are managed without a formal benchmark, according to the study results. The European investors benchmark another 4% of assets against cash or LIBOR, while the Asian investors use cash or LIBOR benchmarks for 2%. Secondly, institutions are looking for ways to address what they see as shortcomings in the major indices. Historically, investors have had several issues with the composition of these indices. 3 Exhibit 1: Issues cited with various traditional benchmarks (51 survey participants) European Investors Asian Investors 7 2 Global Equities Domestic Equities 6 United States 5 Europe 5 Global Emerging Markets 4 2 2 China 2 2 Taiwan, India, Japan 3 Cited mainly for large cap stock bias and sector bias 1 Asian European investors cite mainly large cap stock bias, Asian investors cite developed market bias European investors think that the index is not reflective of rapid changes 3 Question asked: In which of the areas where you currently have equity allocations do you face issues with the type and quality of indices provided by major index providers? Which type of issues do you encounter in each of these areas? Source: FIL Limited, Greenwich Associates, 2013 For nearly all equity index types, from global to country-specific, many Asian and European institutions in the study name large-cap bias as a major problem encountered with these indices. Asian investors cite additional issues, such as developed-market bias in global equity indices, and investors from both regions cite sector bias as a problem in some domestic equity and individual country indices. One example: the sizable exposures to the financial service sector in both the major Chinese and European indices. European institutions also say major indices are not reflective of rapid changes in important developing markets like China. The representative of a Danish pension fund explains why it makes adjustments to a standard benchmark in global equities: ―We feel there is a better way of constructing passive benchmarks and in terms of active, MSCI is not the ideal way to do it. This is more of a herding market perspective where we are following what everyone else is buying.‖ In addition to being highly concentrated, in some instances, and biased towards large caps and certain sectors, market capitalisation weighted indices have theoretical and empirical limitations that are often highlighted by academics [Tabner 2007, Malevergne et al. 2009, Goltz and Le Sourd 2011]. The key issues raised are that cap-weighted indices: Have provided poor risk-adjusted returns versus alternative benchmarks Do not consider correlations between stocks Overweight overpriced stocks Carry a momentum bias At least partially in response to these issues, the European institutions in the study have moved 8% of total assets to be managed against alternative benchmarks such as equal-weighted indices, fundamentally-weighted indices and other measures. Despite harbouring similar concerns over standard indices, most Asian institutions still rely on them almost exclusively: only 1% of Asian institutional assets are managed against alternative benchmarks. One reason for this phenomena is that Asian institutions are largely still working through more fundamental issues, such as diversifying their portfolios to reduce home-market bias (see box below) and large exposures to domestic fixed income. 4 Exhibit 2: Share of actively managed equity assets run against various benchmarks Asian Investors (28) European Investors (23) Cash/LIBOR etc. 4% Cash/LIBOR etc. 2% No f ormal benchmark 11% Alternative Equity Benchmark 1% Alternative Equity Benchmark 8% No f ormal benchmark 13% Traditional Market Capitalization Weighted Benchmarks 75% Traditional Market Capitalization Weighted Benchmarks 87% 100% Small group of investors where 100% of assets without formal benchmark for various reasons such as LDI approach 92% 74% 75% Pension Funds Insurance Companies 67% Pension Funds Others Insurance Companies Question asked: Please give us an idea of the share of your equity assets actively managed against the respective benchmarks. Source: FIL Limited, Greenwich Associates, 2013 Among European institutions, 26% say they plan to shift assets toward management against alternative benchmarks, as do 11% of the Asian institutions. Another 9% of European investors and 4% of Asian investors expect to shift assets to cash or LIBOR benchmarks, or to forgo benchmarks entirely as part of Liability Driven Investment or other approaches. Exhibit 3: Share of investors expecting change in distribution of assets managed against different benchmarks Asian Investors (28) European Investors (23) Shif t towards alternative equity benchmarks 11% Shift towards alternative equity benchmarks 26% Other 4% No Change 86% No Change 65% Other 9% Question asked: Do you expect a change in the distribution of assets managed against different types of benchmarks? Source: FIL Limited, Greenwich Associates, 2013 5 Finding a Custom Fit for Global Equities More than one-third of European institutions participating in the study currently use customized global equity indices. In addition, while only two participating Asian investors say they currently use alternative benchmarks for global equity investments, several anticipate adjusting global equity benchmarks via customised indices in the future. Exhibit 4: Investors Citing Type of Change Made / Anticipated in Customised Indices 13 5 ―Exclude certain countries‖ 8 ―Exclude EU Equities‖ 8 Asian Investors 5 4 European Investors 4 3 3 1 1 Adjust Representation of Regions Exclude Certain Sectors 3 Exclude Home Country Other Question asked: Please describe what type of changes you make/ anticipate in customized indices for global equities relative to traditional market cap-weighted indices. Source: FIL Limited, Greenwich Associates, 2013 The bulk of changes institutions make or anticipate making via customised indices involve altering the representation of countries or regions. Among the most common changes employed or anticipated by the European institutions are the exclusion of European equities and home-country stocks. Asian institutions looking to alter benchmarks have moved predominantly to exclude equities from their domestic markets or other countries or sectors. A representative of a South Korean insurance company explains: ―We already have the exposure to our home country in the Korea equity index and fixed income; therefore, when we invest in the global market, it is fine to exclude the home market.‖ The rise of alternative approaches In the last few years there has been significant focus on exploring the value that non-traditional approaches can add. Alternative approaches all aim to overcome the issues with traditional market cap-weighted indices. Industry and academic work has been split into two areas: 1] Development of pre-packaged low cost smart beta products that aim to deliver better riskadjusted returns than cap-weighted indices in the medium to long term. 2] Development of alternative weighting schemes to benchmark active investment strategies. Many of the new approaches that have raised interest can be deployed in either of these two ways. This complicates the decision as to whether and how to use these new approaches. 6 Smart Beta Smart beta products aim to deliver better risk-adjusted returns than their cap-weighted counterparts. They do this by exploiting some of the biases in traditional benchmarks highlighted 2 above. In a paper published in early 2012 we explored some of the major types of smart beta products, these include: Risk based approaches such as minimum variance, equal risk contribution and maximum diversification, which exploit an expected low volatility premium Fundamentally weighted approaches, which weigh constituents on the basis of firm level characteristics such as book value, revenue or dividends in an attempt to exploit an expected value premium Equally weighted approaches, which have an inherent tilt towards small caps and aim to exploit any small cap premium In recent years, given elevated levels of equity market volatility, risk based approaches have been of particular interest. The charts below highlight the dramatic increase in academic investigation and flows into minimum variance ETF products. Exhibit 5: Minimum volatility strategies have been of significant interest in recent turbulent times Academic references to ‘minimum variance portfolios’ 200 Minimum Volatility ETF inflows 25 US$bn 180 160 20 140 120 15 100 80 10 60 40 5 20 0 0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Academic papers using term 'minimum variance portfolios' 2011 2012 Total 2013 Annualised Source: ASR, 4th June 2013 The following questions explore these first generation smart beta products and the value they can deliver: Is smart beta active or passive? In the strictest sense only a market capitalisation weighted, or ‗market‘ index can be passive, i.e. held by all investors simultaneously. Allocating assets to smart beta strategies is an active decision that provides exposure to one or more factor risk premia. The fact that some smart beta products are exchange traded and low cost should not distract from this important point. The question itself demonstrates how we have been trained to think and categorise investments into a rigid framework that can oversimplify matters. Moving away from such binary taxonomy and gradually towards focusing on the individual needs of asset owners is a challenge, but one worth taking on. For instance if an investor‘s long-run objective is to generate 4% above cash and there is a 40% allocation to equities, why should the default be an overweight of large caps, growth and 2 Benchmarking and the road to unconstrained, Fidelity Worldwide Investment, Jan 2012 7 momentum using index trackers? Taking such exposure itself represents an ‗active‘ decision. For those who do not have liquidity as a major issue, there is a host of alternative exposures to choose from. Do smart beta strategies solve all my problems with traditional benchmarks? Unfortunately not. Whilst many smart beta products overcome some issues such as over concentration, large cap bias and momentum exposure they cannot consistently deliver better risk-adjusted returns versus market cap indices, and certainly not in all market conditions. Several studies (Kaplan 2008, Blitz & Swinkels 2008, Amnec et al 2012) show that returns generated by major smart beta strategies can almost entirely be explained by simple systematic factor exposures. This is demonstrated in Table 1 below. Table 1: First generation smart beta performance can be explained largely by large factor tilts Data shown are the T-stats of regressions of smart beta strategies on long/short equity factor indices, using monthly returns back to 1994. Large and significant exposures are highlighted in green (positive tilt) and red (negative tilt). The analysis is based on the largest 500 companies in the FTSE World Index. R 2 Smart Beta Strategy Cap Weight Market Gearing Risk Size Momentum Quality Growth Value Intercept 1.00 Equally weighted 187.7 2.16 -0.41 -5.20 -0.28 -2.76 1.24 3.56 2.8 1.00 Diversity Weighted 342.2 2.14 -0.36 -4.99 -0.30 -2.94 1.31 4.05 2.8 0.97 Fundamental Weighted 63.2 -1.94 3.34 -0.19 3.17 0.99 -3.03 10.70 0.8 0.79 Minimum Variance 24.2 2.14 -8.19 1.02 -0.58 -3.20 -1.27 -2.18 1.8 0.78 Max Diversification 21.7 2.53 -5.66 0.16 -0.42 -3.18 -0.81 -3.56 2.0 0.99 Risk parity 113.8 4.56 -6.91 -1.45 2.47 0.16 1.20 6.17 2.5 0.94 Min var (manual) 41.6 0.87 -12.26 3.62 1.46 1.26 0.55 4.31 0.3 Source: Nomura, 14 February 2013 Smart beta products have several limitations of their own, these can include: high turnover, limited liquidity and high valuation multiples, as has been the case for low volatility strategies recently. Can smart beta strategies be tailored? Whilst individual pre-packaged smart beta products do not offer much flexibility, harnessing multiple risk factor premia by dynamically allocating to several strategies is one way to reconcile investments with long term objectives. Table 2 below outlines how some major smart beta strategies perform during various points in the economic cycle. An investment process that forecasts such patterns and shifts allocations to various strategies through the cycle should be able to deliver strong risk-adjusted returns. Table 2: Average monthly relative performance of various equity smart beta strategies Phase of the economic cycle Mkt Cap Weighted (Absolute Performance) Recovery 2.36% 0.15% 0.08% 0.12% -1.53% Expansion 1.78% 0.04% 0.02% 0.02% Slowdown -0.18% 0.06% 0.03% Downturn -1.18% -0.04% -0.02% Equally Diversity Fundamental Minimum Max weighted Weighted Weighted Variance Diversification Risk parity Min var (naïve approach) -1.48% -0.04% -1.01% -0.98% -0.73% -0.15% -0.62% 0.02% 0.49% 0.31% 0.36% 1.08% 0.12% 0.56% 0.28% 0.15% 0.66% Economic phases defined by periods of expansion and contraction in the US economy as measured by the National Bureau of Economic Research Source: Nomura, 14 February 2013 A number of quantitative disciplines have well established processes for dynamically tilting factor exposures within individual asset classes. Widening the process across asset classes would 8 deepen the opportunity set and potentially improve outcomes. There is now a growing focus and investigation into multi asset smart beta processes. This move away from thinking about allocation to traditional asset classes and regions towards managing factor premia and exposures is a notion that asset owners are exploring closely. Results of a detailed study by the Centre for Applied Research at State Street show that over 60% of institutional investors interviewed globally plan on managing risk exposures across asset classes rather than traditional asset allocation. Alternative equity benchmarks Many of the portfolio design processes that underlie smart beta strategies can be used to construct benchmarks for active management. Roll [1992] demonstrated analytically that alpha delivered through active management is independent of benchmark construction. He showed that if skill and opportunity set are assumed to be constant and active positions are sized using a consistent approach, relative performance and risk are equal irrespective of the weighting methodology of the benchmark. This result suggests that one should be entirely unbiased when it comes to selecting between benchmarks with differing weighting processes. In reality there are several issues that will impact results such as turnover and transaction costs. Where alternative benchmarks are adopted it is critical to assess whether they overcome each of the limitations associated with traditional indices highlighted above. Exhibit 6: Investors citing possibility of moving away from traditional market capitalisation weighted equity benchmarks No Yes Number of Investors 3 10 13 1 6 5 5 3 Pension Funds Europe Insurance Companies Europe Others Asia 2 Insurance Asia 1 Pension Funds Asia Question asked: Has your organization discussed or investigated the possibility of moving away from traditional market capitalization weighted equity benchmarks? Source: FIL Limited, Greenwich Associates, 2013 Despite their interest in improving equity benchmarks, institutions participating in our study cited a range of challenges they face in moving away from the major indices. 9 Exhibit 7: Investors citing biggest challenges in moving away from traditional market capitalization weighted benchmarks (51 institutions surveyed) Other Challenges cited by Investors “We need to have clear evidence that alternative benchmarks work in a systematic way” (European Pension Fund) “The main issue is liquidity with alternative benchmarks.” (Asian Insurance Company) “The effectiveness of the alternative benchmark is important to us. The benchmark must have a good track record and manager must be able to track this benchmark, not just passively but also actively.” (Asian Pension Fund) 24 21 19 Asian Investors 18 13 10 9 8 10 European Investors 7 6 11 11 10 10 6 4 Lack of transparency/credibility in how some alternative benchmarks are constructed Other Lack of broad understanding of the alternative equity benchmarking approaches Difficulties in communication performance and risk Cost of increased portfolioturnover in managing against alternative benchmarks 1 Cost of modifying/additional infrastructure Question asked: What do you believe are the biggest challenges in moving away from traditional market capitalization weighted benchmarks? Source: FIL Limited, Greenwich Associates, 2013 Overall, the challenge most commonly cited by institutions was a lack of transparency or credibility in the construction of alternative benchmarks. This factor represents a particular problem for state pension funds and other public institutions for which oversight, transparency and the need to communicate performance and performance standards effectively to external constituencies remain important concerns. Institutions also mention cost as a concern in moving away from traditional benchmarks, both as a result of increased portfolio turnover and of modifying or upgrading infrastructure. These factors represent serious hurdles to institutions looking to improve the effectiveness of their benchmarks. In addition to the practical limitations highlighted in our survey there are conceptual issues when using alternative benchmarks for active management. Commercially available pre-packaged alternative beta indices often do not allow one to unpack the influence of the stock selection process from that of the weighting scheme applied. As we have seen in the discussion of smart beta strategies above, it is the performance of the key risk premia, to which the benchmark is exposed, that determines the vast majority of long-term returns. Smart beta strategies force investors to be systematically exposed in this regard. The critical question is whether the factor exposure delivered is superior to that of traditional benchmarks‘ exposures to large cap and momentum. So what next? It is critical to focus on the impact of a move towards novel approaches on the likelihood of achieving long-run investment objectives. The key hurdles for novel approaches to overcome are the issues of concentration and other biases of traditional indices, and the lack of transparency and simplistic static factor exposures embedded in the first generation of smart beta strategies. 10 Two approaches that aim to do this: 1] Separation of stock selection and weighting methodology Amenc et al [2012] have suggested a two step approach appropriate for systematic disciplines, which splits out the process of stock selection from the weighting methodology applied. They find that ―selecting stocks by firm fundamentals and using a diversification (weighting) scheme maintains the outperformance of fundamentals-based stock selection and improves the relevant diversification objective‖. By narrowing the universe of stocks via a suitable selection process and then applying a weighting methodology, the potency of factor tilts associated with the weighting scheme are dramatically reduced. In fact, stock selection can be viewed as a tool with which to deliberately correct factor exposures of various weighting schemes. When combining a stock picking process with alternative weighting schemes in such a quantitative fashion, it is important to fully understand: the biases and factor exposure in the stock selection process the biases and factor exposure in the weighting methodology how such exposures interact when these two elements are brought together Choice of stock selection process and weighting scheme, in addition to being influenced by the long-run investment objective, should be a reflection of an investor‘s confidence in their ability to forecast returns and risk (including covariance). Exhibit 8: Weighting methodology choice framework High Low Unconstrained investing Focus on return views Diversified or concentrated stock picks often vs. market capitalisation weighted index Quantitative Max Sharpe ratio Focus on risk model / factor views High Minimum Variance Risk Parity Max Diversification Low Source: FIL Limited, adapted from Fraser-Jenkins et al Performance measurement would likely be a challenging issue with such a two stage process. It would ideally split out the assessment of the two elements and also look at the combined result. Given the nature of the complexity here such an approach lends itself best to systematic or quantitative disciplines. 2] Unconstrained investing The misalignment of a company‘s market price and its intrinsic value determined by deep fundamental analysis offers a substantial source of value. This value can be more effectively accessed if stock weights within a portfolio are predominantly a reflection of a view on alpha and risk and not influenced by the specific structure of a given benchmark. 11 An integrated unconstrained approach is particularly useful for countries and regional markets where a handful of large stocks can have a large bearing on the market capitalisation index return. Whilst these indices remain important yardsticks for performance over the medium to long term, they do not influence the sizing of positions in unconstrained portfolios. Such investment approaches focus less on relative risk and exposures and more on absolute measures. In addition to allowing portfolio weights to be a function of alpha expectations, the detachment from the benchmark allows risk factor exposures to be tilted dynamically through the cycle and managed in a deliberate fashion. Such exposures can be viewed as an additional source of alpha as well as tools with which to control total portfolio risk. The left and right charts of Exhibit 9 show ‗before‘ and ‗after‘ snapshots of a portfolio‘s holdings by weight. These charts draw on a real case study and reveal how the shape of the portfolio changed when the management style became unconstrained. The unconstrained approach resulted in a flatter profile of portfolio weights and slightly fewer stocks. Exhibit 9: Change in the distribution of stock weights in a move to unconstrained management 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 Source: FIL Limited Whilst relative risk (or tracking error) versus a cap-weighted benchmark is likely to rise, absolute risk is comparable and potentially lower with this style of investing. Exhibit 10: Unconstrained portfolios can have high tracking error but low absolute volatility % Absolute Risk (volatility) 30 Characteristics of unconstrained approaches: Higher expected return over a cycle Higher tracking error Lower absolute risk (typically) Typical Benchmark-aware Portfolio MSCI 20 Higher expected Sharpe ratio Indicative Unconstrained Fund 10 Cash 0 0 5 10 15 20 % Tracking Error (risk relative to cap-weighted benchmark) Source: FIL Limited, 2013 12 Table 3: Change in portfolio characteristics in a move to unconstrained management Before (2010) After (2013) Active Money 38.5 85.1 Tracking Error 3.2 6.2 No. Of Stocks 51 47 Fund Volatility 23.0 16.5 Source: FIL Limited, 2013 Unconstrained portfolios ultimately ensure that risk factor exposures are not a result of decisions made by index providers but are a function of deliberate investor choice. Conclusions No one size fits all: the needs and objectives of asset owners differ dramatically. There is understandable frustration about the unwanted exposures that market cap benchmarks impose on equity portfolios managed against them. Given cap-weighted structures are highly liquid and have low turnover; a move away from them should only be implemented once investors are fully convinced that the proposed solution will sustainably overcome existing challenges. These include over concentration, systematic size, momentum and growth biases. The first round of smart beta strategies and alternative benchmarks have been heavily criticised for their lack of transparency, which has made it difficult for investors to make a full appraisal of their sources of value. Whilst such approaches have overcome some of the limitations of cap-weighted indices they have tended to deliver alternative simple static exposures. Reconciling such factor tilts with long-run investment objectives is a challenge. One way to do this would be to allocate assets across several strategies in a dynamic fashion, which itself would be a complicated task. The drawbacks of both cap-weighted benchmarks and the first generation of alternatives may be overcome with an unconstrained investment approach or a systematic process that uses stock selection deliberately to offset unwanted exposures associated with a portfolio weighting scheme. Ultimately all novel options will be judged on an opportunity cost basis versus market cap indices and must deliver superior risk-adjusted returns in the medium to long term if they are to be successful. 13 Further reading and references Amenc, N., F. Goltz, A. Lodh, and L. Martellini, Spring 2012, ―Diversifying the Diversifiers and Tracking the Tracking Error: Outperforming Cap-Weighted Indices with Limited Risk of Underperformance‖, The Journal of Portfolio Management, 38 (3), 72-88. Amenc, N., F. Goltz, and A. Lodh, 2012, ―Choose Your Betas: Benchmarking Alternative Equity Index Strategies‖, Journal of Portfolio Management, 39 (1), 88-111. Amenc, N., F. Goltz, L. Martellini, and P. Retkowsky, 2011, ―Efficient Indexation: An Alternative to Cap-Weighted Indices‖, Journal of Investment Management, 9 (4), 1-23. Ang, A., R. J. Hodrick, Y. Xing, and X. Zhang. 2006, "The cross-section of volatility and expected returns", Journal of Finance, 61 (1), 259-99. Ang, A., R. J. Hodrick, Y. Xing, and X. Zhang. 2009, "High Idiosyncratic Volatility and Low Returns: International and Further U.S. Evidence", Journal of Financial Economics, 91 (1), 1-23. Arnott, R., and J. Hsu., 2008, "Noise, CAPM and the size and value effects", Journal of Investment Management, 6 (1), 1.11. Arnott, R., J. Hsu, and J. Moore, 2005, ―Fundamental Indexation‖, Financial Analysts Journal, 60 (2), 83-99. Asness, 2006, ―The Value of Fundamental Indexation‖, Institutional Investor, October pp. 94-99 Baker, M. P., B. Bradley, and J. Wurgler, 2011, "Benchmarks as limits to arbitrage: Understanding the low volatility anomaly", Financial Analysts Journal, 67 (1), 1-15. Blitz, D., 2012, ―Strategic Allocation to Premiums in the Equity Market‖, Journal of Index Investing, 2 (4), 42-4 Blitz, D., and L. Swinkels, 2008, ―Fundamental Indexation: An Active Value Strategy in Disguise‖, Journal of Asset Management, 9 (4), 264-269. Brinson, Gary P., L. Randolph Hood, and Gilbert L. Beebower, 1991, "Determinants of Portfolio Performance II: An Update", The Financial Analysts Journal, 47(3). Brinson, Gary P., L. Randolph Hood, and Gilbert L. Beebower, July/August 1986, "Determinants of Portfolio Performance", The Financial Analysts Journal. Brown, K. C., W. V. Harlow, and H. Zhang, 2012, Investment Style Volatility and Mutual Fund Performance, <http://www2.mccombs.utexas.edu/faculty/keith.brown/Research/stylevolatilitywp.pdf Choueifaty, Y., and Y. Coignard, 2008, ―Toward Maximum Diversification.‖ The Journal of Portfolio Management, 35 (1), 40-51. Chow, T., J. Hsu, V. Kalesnik, and B. Little, 2011, "A Survey of Alternative Equity Index Strategies", Financial Analysts Journal, 67 (5), 37-57. Christoffersen, P., V. R. Errunza, K. Jacobs, X. Jin, 2010, "Is the Potential for International Diversification Disappearing?", Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1573345 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1573345 Clarke, R., H. de Silva, and S. Thorley, 2011, "Minimum-Variance Portfolio Composition", The Journal of Portfolio Management, 37(2), 31-45. Daniel,K., M. Grinblatt, S. Titman, and R. Wermers, 1997, Measuring Mutual Fund Performance with Characteristic-Based Benchmarks, 1035-1058, Vol. LII, No. 3, Journal of Finance DeMiguel, V., L. Garlappi, R. Uppal, 2009, ―Optimal versus naïve diversification: How inefficient is the 1/N portfolio strategy?‖, Review of Financial Studies, 22, 1915–1953. Duncan, S. L. et al, 2013, ―The Influential Investor‖, State Street Centre for Applied Research Fama, E. F., and K. R. French, 1993, "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds", Journal of Financial Economics, 33 (1), 3-56. Fidelity Worldwide Investment, ―Benchmarking and the road to unconstrained‖, Jan 2012 Graham, J., 2011, ―Comment on the Theoretical and Empirical Evidence of Fundamental Indexing‖, UC Davis. Grinold, Richard C. 1989. ―The Fundamental Law of Active Management.‖ The Journal of Portfolio Management, vol. 15, no. 3 (Spring): 30–38. 14 Haugen , Robert A. and Nardin L. Baker, 2008, "Case Closed" The Handbook Of Portfolio Construction: Contemporary Applications Of Markowitz Techniques, John B. Guerard Jr., ed., Forthcoming. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1306523 Hsu, J., 2006, "Cap-weighted portfolios are sub-optimal portfolios", Journal of Investment Management, 4 (3), 44-53. Jun, D., and B. Malkiel, 2007, ―New paradigms in stock market indexing‖, European Financial Management, 14 (1), 118–126. Kaplan, P., 2008, ―Why Fundamental Indexation Might—or Might Not—Work‖, Financial Analysts Journal, 64 (1), 32-39. Lohre, H., U. Neugebauer, C. Zimmer, 2012, "Diversified Risk Parity Strategies for Equity Portfolio Selection", Journal of Investing, 21 (3). Merton, R. 1980, ―On Estimating the Expected Return on the Market: An Exploratory Investigation‖, Journal of Financial Economics, 8, 323-361. Perold, A. 2007, ―Fundamentally flawed indexing‖, Financial Analysts Journal, 63 (6), 31-37. Plyakha, Y., R. Uppal, Grigory Vilkov, 2012, "Why Does an Equal-Weighted Portfolio Outperform Value- and Price-Weighted Portfolios?" Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1787045 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1787045 Roll, R., 1992, A Mean/Variance Analysis of Tracking Error, Journal of Portfolio Management, 18 (4), 13-22 Scherer, B., 2011, ―A Note on the Returns from Minimum Variance Investing‖, Journal of Empirical Finance, 18 (4), 652-660. 15 Important Information This material is for investment professionals only and should not be relied upon by private investors. FIL Limited and its respective subsidiaries form the global investment management organisation that is commonly referred to as Fidelity Worldwide Investment. Unless otherwise stated, all views are those of Fidelity Worldwide Investment. This document may not be reproduced or circulated without prior permission and must not be passed to private investors. Fidelity, Fidelity Worldwide Investment and the Fidelity Worldwide Investment logo and currency F symbol are trademarks of FIL Limited. Investors should note that the views expressed may no longer be current and may have already been acted upon by Fidelity. Issued by FIL Pensions Management (FCA registered number 144345) a firm authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FIL Pensions Management is a member of the Fidelity Worldwide Investment group of companies and is registered in England and Wales under the company number 02015142. The registered office of the company is Oakhill House, 130 Tonbridge Road, Hildenborough, Tonbridge, Kent TN11 9DZ, United Kingdom. Fidelity Worldwide Investment‘s VAT identification number is 395 3090 35. Issuer in Germany: FIL Investment Services GmbH, Kastanienhöhe 1, 61476 Kronberg im Taunus Issuer for Austria, Hungary, Slovakia and Czech Republic: FIL (Luxembourg) S.A., 2a rue Borschette, 1021 Luxembourg Compliance number: EMEA20135075 September 2013 16