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Challenges of the current European Energy Policy Rafael Miranda CEO of Endesa President of Eurelectric Athens, 22th of May of 2008 The global energy scenario will face profound change The world's population will grow to 8 billion in 2030 Global primary energy consumption will increase by 55% over the next 25 years China and India will increase their primary energy demand by 125%, equal to 45% of worldwide growth Primary energy consumption (Mtoe) +55% 11.429 +125% 5.018 2.279 2005 World Source: 17.721 2030 China India World Energy Outlook 2007 (IEA) 2 The energy industry will need a huge investment effort in the future 2006-2030 investments in the energy industry: Electricity industry will represent 53% (US$ 11,560 billion) of total investments. Electricity sector will gain ground versus other energy uses. US$ 21.936 billion 3% 25% 15% (US$ 1,728 billion) is earmarked for Europe. 53% 19% Oil Source: Coal Electricity Gas In the next 25 years new global installed capacity will be equivalent to the one commissioned on the last 125 years. World Energy Outlook 2007 (IEA) 3 The combat on climate change will be a relevant driver in the energy industry IPCC(*) :”Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations” Global population affected by global warming in 2080 If the European target of a 2ºC rise in temperatures is reached, by 2080: 2,7 billion people will be exposed to the risks of drought, 250M to malaria and 30M to hunger. Source: Intergovernmental panel on climate change (ONU) 4 Heavy dependence on fossil fuels Global primary energy mix WEO 2030 2005 Baseline Scenario Coal 25% 28% 23% Oil 35% 32% 31% Natural gas 21% 22% 22% Renewables 11% 11% 14% Nuclear 6% 5% 7% Hydro 2% 2% 3% Total 100% 100% 100% Fossil fuels will remain as the dominant technology for decades Alternative Scenario Renewables will grow significantly in absolute terms (2.800-3.500 TWh in 2030) Baseline Scenario: No inclusion of Government new energy policies Alternative Scenario: Inclusion of additional measures from Governments to face SoS and Climate Change Issues. 450 millions of particles in the atmosphere Source: World Energy Outlook 2007 (IEA) 5 Commodity prices would be driven in the future by its scarcity Reserves (in years of consumption) and main countries where they are located Oil Natural Gas Coal 41 years (down from 41 years in 1996) 63 years (down from 66 years in 1996) 147 years (down from 224 years in 1996) Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Venezuela +319% Russia, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and A.U.E. +90% U.S.A., Russia, China, India and Australia +143% Energy commodities are scarce and mainly located in geopolitically unstable countries… Sources: EIA y BP Statistical Energy Review. Price increases (dic03 vs. May08) … and its prices have risen sharply 6 In this challenging global environment, the EU has set the guidelines of its energy policy Strategic European Energy Review 2007 (SEER) 2009 A real pan-European energy market 2015 12 fossil-fuel plants with CCS 2020 20% of renewables in primary energy mix 20% CO2 emissions reduction in the EU (vs 1990), up to 30% reduction may be set 20% increase in energy efficiency 2050 50% CO2 emissions reduction by 2050 (vs 1990) Developments in the Green Package 7 EU is leading the combat on climate change Europe has set an ambitious emission reduction targets … EU Emissions Targets 2020 2020 … however, climate change is a global problem where Europe's impact is not significantly relevant World CO2 Emissions (MtCO2) 41.905 +57% -20% or -30% (vs. 1990) 26.620 (15.285) -50% (vs. 1990) 2005 Source: World Energy Outlook 2007 (IEA) % World CO2 Emissions 2005 2030 China 19% 27% USA 22% 16% Europe 15% 10% Others 44% 47% 2030 8 The EU is clearly committed to achieve its emission target through a further development of renewables EU Renewables policy and breakdow by country 2020 21,8 1. Italy 1,3 13,7 2. UK 23% 18% 5,8 6. Germany 12,2 Average UE 11,5 8,5 20% 8. Spain 11,3 8,7 20% 11,1 9. Greece 21. Poland Renewable effort 2006-2020 X,X 7,2 7,8 18% 6,9 15% Renewables Renewables a 2005 2020 + = X,X General characteristics: • Increase of 5.5% for all + individual additional based on the GDP of the country 15% 10,3 12,7 5. France 5,2 27% X,X% Nota: the EU considers that renewable energy includes wind, solar, hydro, biomass, but do not include cogeneration. Only main countries represented. • No consider historical effort and potential of renewable is not consider • 10% of biofuels in transport in 2020 • “National Action Plan” before march 2010 Industry views of the European energy policy: • Main effort made by the electricity sector • Electricity prices will increase • Incentives for renewables should be market based • Homogeneous European policy in renewables is needed. 9 Renewables growth have significant benefits for Europe Renewables evolution in Europe (ex-hydro) 2030 (TWh) Impacts of renewables to the European Industry: 850 14 9 58 • No CO2 emissions • No contribution to the acid rain • Reduce external dependency • Acomplishment of Kioto targets • Create jobs • Tech development that can benefit • Some contributes with distributed • High volatility • Backup power needed • Need to be subsidized formation 429 170 17 1990 78 84 2005 Biomass and waste Wind Geothermal Solar Tide and wave Source: World Energy Outlook 2007 (IEA) 552 259 146 2012 217 trade 2030 generation to the electrical system 10 A balanced energy policy is required Sustainability Energy efficiency Diversification of technologies Energy policy Competition Security of supply Minimising impact on the environment and climate change Development of interconnections More R&D investment Agreements with energy commodities producers Market development 11 L WEST RN LAND WEST L L EAST Moving towards a single European market will be crucial The EU ultimate objective is to create a single electricity market Regional markets could be a necessary interim step To achieve an efficient and competitive single market it is key to define an homogeneous and stable regulation based on market mechanisms 12 All generation technologies must be considered Wind energy Natural gas Coal Energy dependency Security of supply Emissions Price volatility Reserves Cost Nuclear energy No single technology meets all these goals, but combined provide an optimal solution 13 To solve the energy quiz it will be necessary the development of new technologies 2010 Offshore wind 3G nuclear fission Hybrid cars 1G Biofuels Subsidized solar Smart meters 2020 2030 CCS technologies 4G nuclear fission Electric cars 2G Biofuels Wave energy Competitive solar Smart Grids 2040 2050 Towards a cero-emission and efficient energy Nuclear fusion Hydrogen car and turbine Unknown technologies nowadays 14 The EU should promote energy efficiency more actively Energy intensity (base 100: EU15 2004) Primary energy intensity (kpte / M€) 220% 200% 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 1994 EU25 2004 EU15 USA JAP Europe and Japan are economic regions with the high levels of energy efficiency… … however Europe still has significant room for improvement 15 Summary The European Union is leading the combat on climate change. A critical levers will be the development of renewables Renewables have significant benefits for both the European electricity system and the European economy, with some “cons” that must be offset Europe should not leave aside the other main drivers of a balanced energy policy: Security of Supply and Competitiveness 16 Challenges of the current European Energy Policy Rafael Miranda CEO of Endesa President of Eurelectric Athens, 22th of May of 2008