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Future Climate: What does it mean for reservoir water quality? WRA 1050/ WaterRF 4468 Comprehensive assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Reservoir Water Quality in a Range of Climatic Regions Leon van der Linden SA Water, Research and Innovation Water RA Forum, WA, November 2013 Business Issue: Problem Statement Climate change • Water security (quantity and quality; supply and demand), operational costs and asset longevity. • Impacts SA Water source waters. • Presents additional challenges to planning and operations. “Managing these changing environmental conditions pose challenges in unchartered territory and require long-term planning based on scientifically sound research.” - Denise Kruger, Water Research Foundation, Chair of Board of Trustees. Climate: Variability and Change • Variability: interacting geophysical phenomena – Our understanding is still developing • Instrumental record has limited temporal and spatial extent • Proxies: flood debris, germination events, etc • Global circulation models still have major uncertainties; the science is underpinned by real data • Understanding the past and present weather is challenging Projected temperature rises for South Australia 2020 2050 2080 Projected precipitation for Southeastern Australia 2020 2050 2080 Post, D., Chiew, F., Teng, J., Wang, B. & Marvanek, S. (2012) Projected Changes in Climate and Runoff for South-eastern Australia Under 1 °C and 2 °C of Global Warming. A SEACI Phase 2 Special Report. Potential climate change impacts to the water business • Cost – – – – Assets / Investments Energy (pumping, desalination and price) Coagulants Disinfectants • Compliance – Pathogens / DBPs / Toxins – Outfalls – Greenhouse gas emissions • Customers – Aesthetics / tastes and odours – Demand Water Quality Impacts Projects on climate change impacts on water quality • Water Research Foundation / Water Research Australia: – Comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on reservoir water quality in a range of climatic regions – VT, NCKU, UA – Literature review; integrated modelling analysis • Goyder Water Research Institute: – – – – An agreed set of climate projections for South Australia Task 4 – Development of an application test bed UniSA, SARDI, UA, FU, DEWNR Reservoir model sensitivity analysis; downscaling product evaluation Potential climate change impacts on water quality Elevated temperatures Impacts on catchment biogeochemistry Increased stratification Release of ions from the sediments Growth of cyanobacteria Less frequent but more intense rainfall Altered flow regimes Increased transient inputs of: sediment pathogens organic matter WTP Skilled GCM Climate Projections Change Statistics Distributions Variable correlation Weather Generator Historically valid coupled model Catchment Data Hydrological Model Reservoir Data Hydrodynamic Model Water quality scenarios Water quality Model Catchment and Reservoir Planning Options Risk assessment Expert knowledge Climate change impacts on water quality Model Sensitivity – ELCOM-CAEDYM – Happy Valley Res. Overlay: Empirical sensitivity of monthly average chlorophyll to temperature anomaly Integrating impacts into risk management framework Risk Matrix - Defines management vigilance Anticipated Outcomes • Identification of risks to water quality – Reservoir stratification – Rainfall extremes – Catchment impacts • Develop methods to quantify risks – Contribute to corporate risk management • Provide information for long term planning – Comprehensive climate change scenarios – Quantified changes in risk