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List of maps and graphs Map S.1 Biogeographical regions in Europe. Figure 2.1 Scheme of the reflection of the sunshine by the atmosphere and by the Earth surface. Figure 2.2 Scheme of the greenhouse effect of the atmosphere. Figure 2.3 Radiation balance of the system Earth and Atmosphere. Figure 2.4 The global Carbon cycle for the 1990ties Figure 2.5 Antarctic temperature change and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (CO2) over the last 800,000 years Figure 2.6 Reconstructions of the Northern Hemispheric mean temperature, based on various observation techniques over the last 1000 years. Figure 2.7 Observed changes in global average surface temperature, global average sea level and Northern Hemispheric snow cover from 1850. Map 3.1 Locations of significant changes in physical and biological systems, shown together with surface air temperature changes over the period 1970-2004. Map 3.2 Surface air temperature changes in Europe during the period 1970 – 2004, together with the locations of significant changes in physical and biological systems. Figure 3.3 Selected relationships between climate change impacts included in this report. Figure 4.1 Examples of global impacts in various sectors associated with different levels of climate change. Figure 4.2 Examples of global impacts in various world regions associated with different levels of climate change. Figure 4.3 The probabilistic transient temperature implications for the stabilization pathways at 450, 550, 650 ppm CO2-eq. concentration and the pathways that peak at 510 ppm, 550 ppm, 650 ppm. Figure 5.2.1.1 Mean winter NAO index for period 1864 – 2002. Figure 5.2.2.1 Observed global and European annual average temperature deviations, 1850-2007, relative to the 1850-1899 average. Map 5.2.2.2 Observed annual, summer and winter temperature change over Europe during the period 1976 - 2006. Map 5.2.2.3 Modelled change in mean annual, summer and winter temperature over Europe from period 1980-1999 and 2080-2099. Map 5.2.2.4 Linear trend of annual, summer and winter temperature over Europe from ERA-40 data for the period 1958 -2001. Map 5.2.3.1 Observed changes in annual precipitation amounts from 1976 to 2006. Map 5.2.3.2 Modelled change in annual, summer and winter precipitation over Europe between 1980-1999 and 2080-2099. Map 5.2.4.1 Changes in duration of warm spells in summer and frequency of frost days in the period 1976-2006. Map 5.2.4.2 Modelled number of tropical nights over Europe for the control period (1961-1990) and the scenario period (2071-2100) during summer and change between periods. Map 5.2.4.3 Summer 2003 daily maximum temperature anomaly with respect to 1961–1990 period. Map 5.2.5.1 Changes in the contribution of heavy rainfall to total precipitation between 1976 and 2006. Figure 5.2.5.2 Percentage of Europe experiencing moderate drought conditions during the 20th century. Figure 5.2.5.3 Simulated precipitation (1860–2100) of land average of maximum 5day precipitation sum for different European regions. Figure 5.2.5.4 Simulated time series (1860–2100) of land average maximum number of consecutive dry days for different European regions. Figure 5.2.6.1 Storm index time series for the period 1881 - 2004 for north-western, north and central Europe. Map 5.2.6.2 Relative change in the annual maximum daily mean wind speed between the +2°C scenario for 2050 and the reference climate (1961-2000). Map 5.2.6.3 Change in the height of an extreme water level event (with probability of occurrence 2 times in 100 years). Map 5.2.7.1 Trend in tropospheric ozone concentration in periods 1958 – 2001 and 1979 -2001 Figure 5.2.7.2 Change in number of ozone exceedence days per year from period 1993-1996 to the period 2000-2004 and contribution due to the temperature change. Figure 5.3.2.1 Cumulative ice loss of glaciers from all European regions with glaciers (1945 – 2005). Figure 5.3.2.2 Shrinking of the Vernagt-ferner glacier, Austria. Figure 5.3.2.3 Modelled remains of the glacier cover in the European Alps for an increase in average summer air temperature of +1 to +5 °C. Map 5.3.3.1 Differences in the distribution of March-April average snow-cover in Europe between periods1967-1987 and 1988-2004. Figure 5.3.3.2 Northern Hemisphere snow-cover extent departures from monthly means between 1966 and 2005. Map 5.3.3.3 Annual number of days with snow cover for the period 1961-1990 and projected changes for the period 2071-2100. Figure 5.3.4.1 Calculated changes of the ice mass in Greenland in the period 1992 – 2006. Figure 5.3.4.2 Area of Greenland that undergoes melting in the period 1979 – 2007. Figure 5.3.5.1 Time series of arctic sea-ice extent (March, September) for the period 1979 - 2006. Map 5.3.5.2 Sea ice coverage on 16 Sept 2007. Figure 5.3.5.3 Arctic sea ice extent (in March) during the period 1957 – 2007. Figure 5.3.6.1 Temperature in a mountain range containing permafrost. Figure 5.3.6.2 Temperatures measured in different boreholes between 1987 and 2007. Figure 5.3.6.3 The Matterhorn. Figure 5.3.6.4 The Rock-Glacier Murtel-Corvatsch. Map 5.4.2.1 Sea level rise at different European tide gauge stations from 1896 to 2004. Figure 5.4.2.2 Trends in global sea level from 1870 to 2006. Map 5.4.2.3 Sea level variation trends in Europe from 1992 to 2007. Figure 5.4.2.4 Projected global average sea level rise from 1990 to 2100. Figure 5.4.3.1 Annual average Sea surface temperature difference from the 19822006 average in different European seas. Map 5.4.3.2 Spatial distribution of the Sea surface temperature linear trend of the last 25 years (1982-2006) for the European Seas. Figure 5.4.4.1 Decapod abundance in the central North Sea highlighting the mean seasonal peak in abundance for the period 1950-2005 and the month of seasonal peak of decapod larvae for each year 1958-2005. Figure 5.4.4.2 Change in color index in southern North Sea from the 1950'ies until 2000s. Map 5.4.5.1 Northward movement of zooplankton between two time periods (1958-1981) and (1982-1999). Map 5.4.5.2 Recordings of tropical fish and warm-water copepods in different years of the period 1963 - 1996. Figure 5.4.5.3 Relative abundance of warm-water to cold-water flatfish species depending on mean annual sea Sea surface temperature. Map 5.5.2.1 Change in annual river flow for the period 1971-1998 relative to 1900-1970. Map 5.5.2.2 Relative change in mean annual and seasonal river flow between scenario (2071-2100) and control period (1961-1990). Figure 5.5.2.3 Change in daily average river flow between 2071-2100 and 19611990. Map 5.5.3.1 Recurrence of flood events in Europe for the period 1998-2005. Map 5.5.3.2 Relative change in 100-year return level of river discharge between scenario (2071-2100) and control period (1961-1990) Map 5.5.4.1 Change in the severity of river flow drought (as expressed by annual maximum deficit volume, AMV) for the period 1962-1990. Map 5.5.4.2 Change in the severity of river flow drought in France for the period 1960-2000. Map 5.5.4.3 Relative change in mean annual and summer minimum 7-day river flow between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990. Figure 5.6.2.1 Trend in annual water temperature in river Rhine (1909–2006), Danube (1901–1998), Lake Võrtsjärv (1947-2006) and average water temperature in August in Lake Saimaa, Finland (1924–2000). Figure 5.6.3.1 Ice break-up dates from selected European lakes and rivers and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index for winter in the period 1835 2005. Figure 5.6.4.1 Northward shift of range margins of British Odonata between 1960– 1970 and 1985–1995 and observed occurrence of 7 types of southern dragonflies in Belgium, 1980-2005. Map 5.6.4.2 Model simulation of hydrodynamics and phytoplankton dynamics during three contrasting summers (The cold summer of 1956, the average summer of 1991 and the hot summer of 2003). Map 5.6.4.3 The share of Trichoptera taxa sensitive to climate change in the European ecoregions. Figure 5.7.2.1 Increase in species richness on Swiss Alpine mountain summits in the last 30 years. Map 5.7.2.2 Projected changes in plant species in Europe in 2050. Figure 5.7.3.1 Phenological sensitivity to temperature changes. Figure 5.7.3.2 Oak (Quercus sp) leafing date in Surey (UK) from 1950 to 2005. Figure 5.7.4.1 Latitudinal shifts in northern range margins in Britain for 16 taxonomic groups over the past 40 years. Map 5.7.4.2 Indicators of the impact of climatic change on populations of European birds, 1980 – 2005. Map 5.7.4.3 Impact of climate change on the potential distribution of reptiles and amphibians in 2050. Figure 5.7.5.1 Changes in egg-laying dates (1980 to 2004) of the pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca). Map 5.7.6.1 Current distribution range of the butterfly Titiania fritillary (Boloria titania) and its host plant American bistorpt (Polygonum bistorta). Map 5.7.6.2 Relationship between projected distribution space of the butterfly Titania fritillary (Polygonum bistorta) and its host plant American bistort (Boloria titania) for 2080. Map 5.8.2.1 Variation of growing season length for period 1975 – 2007. Figure 5.8.2.2 Duration of the frost-free period for various regions of Europe in the period 1975 – 2006. Map 5.8.3.1 Rate of advance in the yearly date of flowering of winter wheat for the period 1975-2007. Figure 5.8.3.2 Evolution of potential alcohol levels at harvest for Riesling in Alsace (F) from 1971 to 2003. Figure 5.8.4.1 Agro-ecosystem processes and a changing climate. Figure 5.8.4.2 Yield variation due to temperature increase for maize and wheat. Map 5.8.5.1 Variation in the annual meteorological water balance between April and October in the period 1975 - 2007. Figure 5.8.5.2 Climatic water balance in various parts of Europe in the period 1975 – 2006. Map 5.8.6.1 Modelled change of habitat suitability of the 10 most dominant European Forest Categories, for current (year 2000) and future (year 2100). Map 5.8.7.1 Trends of fire danger level from 1958 to 2006 using the Seasonal Severity Rating. Map 5.8.7.2 Projected (2071-2100) and control (1961-1990) three-monthly fire danger levels in Europe. Map 5.8.8.1 Changes in soil organic carbon contents across England and Wales between 1978 and 2003. Map 5.8.8.2 Projected changes of organic carbon in the EU’s agricultural soil for time horizon 2080. Map 5.9.2.1 Number of excess death in summer 2003 and for 2070. Figure 5.9.2.2 Factors affecting human thermoregulation and the risk of heat illness. Map 5.9.3.1 Recent (January 2007) and projected distribution of Aedes albopictus in Europe. Map 5.9.4.1 some maps/graphs from balgrade report? Figure 6.1 Conceptual scheme for climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation. Map 7.1.1 Examples of potential economic effects across Europe. Figure 7.2.1 Natural disasters in Europe 1980-2007 (number of events). Figure 7.2.2 Natural disasters in Europe 1980-2007 (percentage distribution). Figure 7.2.3 Overall and insured losses by weather disasters in Europe in the period 1980-2007. Figure 7.3.1 EU flood losses per thousand of GDP between 1970 and 2005. Figure 7.3.2 Casualties caused by flood disasters in the EU between 1970 and 2005. Map 7.3.3 Relative change in damage of river floods with a 100 year return period between scenario (2071-2100) and control period (19611990). Figure 7.4.1 Modelled people flooded across European coastal areas for recent period and 2080s. Map 7.6.1 Simulated crop yield changes by 2080s relative to the period 19611990. Map 7.8.1 Projections of energy demand for various time horizons in Europe. Figure 7.8.2 Heating Degree Days (HDD) in Europe in the period 1980 - 2005. Figure 7.8.3 Projected changes in hydropower production in Scandinavia for 2070 – 2100. Map 7.8.4 Projected changes in hydropower production potential in Europe for 2070s. Figure 7.8.5 Number of days per year when the temperature of the water in the Rhine was higher than 23°C during the period 1909–2003. Map 7.9.1 Simulated conditions for summer tourism in Europe for 1961-1990 and 2071-2100.