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Integration of Ocean Observations into an Ecosystem Approach to Resource Management Tony Koslow,1 Mike Fogarty,2 Keith Brander,3 and Frank Schwing4 Drawing on CWPS by 1Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD M.-H. Forget : SAFARI 2NE Fisheries Science Center, NMFS/NOAA U. Send: OceanSITES D.P.Institute Costa: TOPP of Aquatic Resources Technical University of Denmark N.O. Andegard: 4SW MAAS Fisheries Science Center, NMFS/NOAA R. O’Dor: OTN Two perspectives on ocean observations & ecosystembased management The observationalist The manager: Integrated ecosystem assessment as synthesis and analysis in relation to ecosystem management objectives GOOS Remote Sensing Fixed Platforms Ships Drifters AUVs Large Animals Measurements & Data Telemetry Metadata standards Current & Wave Fields Data discovery Coastal Inundation Data transport Water Quality Online browse Population Dynamics Data archival Ecosystem Dynamics Data Management Modeling Analysis Decision Support Tools Number of Biosis citations by 5-yr periods: 'ecosystem based management' Maritime Services Weather & Climate Natural Hazards Public Health Ecosystem Health Living Marine Resources Societal Goals 1900 2000 # CITATIONS End–to–End, User–Driven System of Systems Efficiently Links Models & Observations via Data Management & Communications 1500 1119 1000 500 539 0 28 45 90 176 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 YEAR From Malone et al CWP From: Levin et al (2009) PLOS Biology Ecosystem threats • Anthropogenic – Impacts of fisheries on target species, bycatch spp, habitat, competitors and predators, community structure and ecosystem processes – Ecosystem impacts of other sector activities, e.g. coastal development, nutrient inputs, pollution, introduced species, etc • Impacts of climate variability and climate change on target species, competitors & predators, community structure and ecosystem processes Why climate? (from Baumgartner et al. 1992 CalCOFI Repts) (from Takasuka et al. 2008 Prog Ocean) Climate drives marine populations/ecosystems in upwelling systems; also driven by NAO in N Atlantic Integrated Ecosystem Assessment • Tracking of physical, biological, anthropogenic indicators • Integration/iteration of modeling/observations/(process studies) But what kinds of models & observations? Climate/ Physical models Coupled biophysical ecosystem/ food web models (+ fish) Fishery/stock assessment models Socioeconomic models (Adapted from Schwing et al. 2009) Integrated Ecosystem Assessment: (from Field & Francis 2006 Mar Policy) (from Link et al. 2002 CJFAS) Key model limitations: 1) Do not incorporate behavior of mid- & higher trophic levels; 2) models incorporate food web interactions but do not model recruitment Data requirements • Physical/chemical/lower trophic level (phyto-, zooplankton) – Remote sensing: SST, SSH, ocean color – OceanSITES: depth profile moorings/stations: T, S, chl (O2, nutrients, pH) – Gliders, ARGO: T, S, chl (particles (LOPC)) – Ship-based (e.g. CalCOFI): T, S, chl, nutrients, O2, phyto pigments, zooplankton, ichthyoplankton – CPR surveys: zooplankton species (one depth) – The weak link – zooplankton – but often a critical one between climate and fisheries Data requirements (cont) • Fishery: landings by species, recruitment, size/maturity at age, size/age structure – Collected by fishery agencies • Mid- & higher trophic levels – Sources: acoustic/trawl, egg surveys, seabird & mammal observations/surveys – MAAS: Mid-trophic Automatic Acoustic Sampler: proposed basin-scale multi-frequency acoustic sampling of macrozooplankton micronekton – Behavior (distribution) critical: TOPP (Tagging of Pacific/Pelagic Predators), POST (Pacific Ocean Shelf Tracking ), OTN (Ocean Tracking Networks), acoustics combined with fine-scale hydrography (e.g. Moving Vessel Profiler). Extends complexity of models. Data management & communication • Disparate data types: physical properties at discrete locations, depths, remotely-sensed, continuous sections (acoustics, MVP, gliders/AUVs) • Disparate agencies (academic, govt, etc), researchers, nations….. All with different formats (and agendas!) Observing systems in the California Current The surveys extend over 3 nations: Canada, the USA and Mexico, various government agencies and research institutions. Varied survey designs and methods. Challenge: how to integrate to prepare Integrated Ecosystem Assessments as the basis for ecosystembased management? Ocean observations & climate impacts in the California Current PDO index 77 35.5 1 Santa Barbara 0 Los Angeles -1 Log No. 10 m-2 Log No. 10 m-2 PDO Index 2 -2 80 1950 83 90 1970 1980 anomalies 1 CalCOFI Station 0 Nearshore St. -125 Glider Lines -2 1950 2 -123 1960 1970 1980 1990 Euphausia pacifica anomalies -121 -119 2000 El-117 Niño’s29.5 CalCOFI ~quarterly sampling, 1949 – present NOAA/NMFS, Scripps, CDFG partnership 2004: CCE LTER process studies Standard hydrography, ichthyoplankton, zooplankton, seabird & mammal obs Brinton and Townsend (2003) 1 0 -1 -2 1950 Chelton, Bernal & McGowan (1982) 31.5 SIO Pier -1 93 1990 33.5 Nyctiphanes simplex 2 87 1960 San Diego 2000 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 EBM in the southern California Current ROMS model: climate links with nutrients, lower trophic levels CAMEO: mid-trophic level model under dev’t NMFS & Scripps: multi-frequency acoustic study under dev’t NSF-funded sardine recruitment proposal NMFS, Scripps: IEA under dev’t Climate and fisheries in the California Current Role of offshore upwelling on sardine production Trophic models with environmental indicators improve salmon forecasts (Rykaczewski and Checkley 2009) (Wells et al 2008) 1600 CVI 1200 800 400 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Central Valley chinook Model (with Environmental Indicators, R2 = 0.92) Model (based on Jacks - early returns, R2 = 0.66) Northeast Fisheries Science Center Ecosystem Observation Program Satellite Oceanography Oceanographic Moorings and Buoys Standardized Surveys Bottom Trawl Surveys Plankton Surveys Shellfish Surveys Protected Resource Surveys Fishery Monitoring Ships of Opportunity – CPR Program Fishery Observer Program Cooperative Industry Research Sampling Locations for Selected NEFSC at-Sea Ecosystem Observation Program Elements Atlantic Croaker Temperature Effects on Recruitment J. Hare et al. Ecological Applications, in press Projected Croaker Yield under Three Climate Change Scenarios J. Hare et al. Ecological Applications, in press Zooplankton Community Composition and Environmental Drivers Zooplankton Community Composition: Ratio of Small to Large-Bodied Copepods EAP. 2009. Ecosystem Status Report. NEFSC Lab. Ref. Doc. 09-11 Trends in Fish Community Preferred Temperature: Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf NEFSC Bottom Trawl Surveys in spring (Upper) and autumn (Lower). Temperature trends EAP. 2009. Ecosystem Status Report. NEFSC Lab. Ref. Doc. 09-11 Impacts of fishing on fish community structure Mean trophic level of landings for the Northeast continental shelf LME. Time Trends in Anthropogenic, Physical and Biotic Indicator Variables Northeast U.S. Shelf EAP. 2009. Ecosystem Status Report. NEFSC Lab. Ref. Doc. 09-11 Conclusions • EBM has progressed conceptually and operationally over the past 5 – 10 years • Challenges remain Models: – Incorporate behavior of mid- to higher tropic levels in models – Model the recruitment process (the link between physics and fish) Data: – Economically observe physics, chemistry, lower to higher trophic levels, combined with fishery data: eliminate ‘the missing middle’ – Process studies to resolve recruitment dynamics, links from physics to fish Data management & communication: - Integrate across varied data types, observers & users Interdisciplinary team: Observationalists, modelers, data managers, fishery scientists & managers (process studies)