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Chapter 5 The Black-Scholes PDE In this chapter we review the notions of assets, self-financing portfolios, riskneutral measures, and arbitrage in continuous time. We also derive the BlackScholes PDE for self-financing portfolios, and we solve this equation using the heat kernel method. 5.1 Continuous-Time Market Model Let (At )t∈R+ be the riskless asset given by dAt = rdt, At t ∈ R+ , i.e. At = A0 e rt , t ∈ R+ , (5.1) where r > 0 is the risk-free interest rate.† We will model the risky asset price process (St )t∈R+ using a geometric Brownian motion defined from the equation dSt = µdt + σdBt , t ∈ R+ , (5.2) St see Section 4.6. By Proposition 4.12 we have 1 St = S0 exp σBt + µ − σ 2 t , 2 t ∈ R+ . “Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist”, Kenneth E. Boulding, in: Energy Reorganization Act of 1973: Hearings, Ninety-third Congress, First Session, on H.R. 11510, page 248, United States Congress, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1973. † 139 N. Privault install.packages("quantmod") library(quantmod) getSymbols("0005.HK",from="2016-02-15",to=Sys.Date(),src="yahoo") stock=Ad(`0005.HK`) write(stock, file = "data_exp", sep="\n") chartSeries(stock,up.col="blue",theme="white") The next Figure 5.1 presents a graph of underlying market data that can be compared to the geometric Brownian motion of Figure 4.10. stock 70 [2016−02−15/2017−05−09] Last 67.15 Feb 15 2016 May 02 2016 Jul 01 2016 Sep 01 2016 Nov 01 2016 Jan 02 2017 Mar 01 2017 May 01 2017 65 60 60 55 55 St 65 50 50 45 45 40 0005.HK eµt Feb 16 May 16 Jul 16 Sep 16 Nov 16 Jan 17 Mar 17 May 17 t Fig. 5.1: Graphs of underlying prices. 5.2 Self-Financing Portfolio Strategies Let ξt and ηt denote the (possibly fractional) quantities invested at time t over the time period [t, t + dt), respectively in the assets St and At , and let ξ¯t = (ηt , ξt ), S̄t = (At , St ), t ∈ R+ , denote the associated portfolio and asset price processes. The portfolio value Vt at time t is given by Vt = ξ¯t · S̄t = ηt At + ξt St , t ∈ R+ . (5.3) Our description of portfolio strategies proceeds in four steps which correspond to different interpretations of the self-financing condition. Portfolio update The portfolio strategy (ηt , ξt )t∈R+ is self-financing if the portfolio value remains constant after updating the portfolio from (ηt , ξt ) to (ηt+dt , ξt+dt ), i.e. ξ¯t · S̄t+dt = At+dt ηt + St+dt ξt = At+dt ηt+dt + St+dt ξt+dt = ξ¯t+dt · S̄t+dt , (5.4) 140 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " The Black-Scholes PDE which is the continuous-time equivalent of the self-financing condition already encountered in the discrete setting of Chapter 2, see Definition 2.1. A major difference with the discrete-time case of Definition 2.1, however, is that the continuous-time differentials dSt and dξt do not make pathwise sense as continuous-time stochastic integrals are defined by L2 limits, cf. Proposition 4.9, or by convergence in probability. Portfolio value ξ¯t · S̄t - ξ¯t · S̄t+dt = ξ¯t+dt · S̄t+dt - ξ¯t+dt · S̄t+2dt Asset value St St+dt St+dt St+2dt Time scale t ξt t + dt ξt t + dt ξt+dt t + 2dt ξt+dt Portfolio allocation Fig. 5.2: Illustration of the self-financing condition (5.4). Portfolio update Equivalently, Condition (5.4) can be rewritten as At+dt dηt + St+dt dξt = 0, where dηt := ηt+dt − ηt (5.5) and dηt := ξt+dt − ξt denote the respective changes in portfolio allocations. Equivalently, we have At+dt (ηt − ηt+dt ) = St+dt (ξt+dt − ξt ). (5.6) In other words, when one sells a (possibly fractional) quantity ηt − ηt+dt > 0 of the riskless asset priced At+dt at the end of the time period [t, t + dt] for the total amount At+dt (ηt − ηt+dt ), one should entirely spend this income to buy the corresponding quantity ξt+dt − ξt > 0 of the risky asset for the same amount St+dt (ξt+dt − ξt ) > 0. Similarly, if one sells a quantity −dξt > 0 of the risky asset St+dt between the time periods [t, t + dt] and [t + dt, t + 2dt] for a total amount −St+dt dξt , one should entirely use this income to buy a quantity dηt > 0 of the riskless asset for an amount At+dt dηt > 0, i.e. At+dt dηt = −St+dt dξt . Condition (5.6) can be rewritten as St (ξt+dt − ξt ) + At+dt (ηt+dt − ηt ) + (St+dt − St )(ξt+dt − ξt ) = 0, " 141 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault i.e. St dξt + At dηt + dSt · dξt = 0 (5.7) in differential notation. Portfolio differential In practice, the self-financing portfolio property will be characterized by the following proposition. Proposition 5.1. A portfolio allocation (ξt , ηt )t∈R+ with price Vt = ηt At + ξt St , t ∈ R+ , is self-financing according to (5.4) if and only if the relation dVt = ηt dAt + ξt dSt (5.8) holds. Proof. We check that by Itô’s calculus we have dVt = ηt dAt + ξt dSt + At dηt + St dξt + dηt · dAt + dξt · dSt = ηt dAt + ξt dSt + At dηt + St dξt + dξt · dSt , since (At+dt − At ) · (ηt+dt − ηt ) = dAt · dηt = rAt (dt · dηt ) ' 0 in the sense of the Itô calculus by the Itô Table 4.1. Hence, Condition (5.7) rewrites as (5.8), which is equivalent to (5.4) and (5.5). Let Vet = e −rt Vt and Xt = e −rt St respectively denote the discounted portfolio value and discounted risky asset prices at time t > 0. We have dXt = d( e −rt St ) = −r e −rt St dt + e −rt dSt = −r e −rt St dt + µ e −rt St dt + σ e −rt St dBt = Xt ((µ − r)dt + σdBt ). In the next lemma we show that when a portfolio is self-financing, its discounted value is a gain process given by the sum over time of discounted profits and losses (number of risky assets ξt times discounted price variation dXt ). The following lemma is the continuous-time analog of Lemma 3.2. 142 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " The Black-Scholes PDE Lemma 5.2. Let (ηt , ξt )t∈R+ be a portfolio strategy with value Vt = ηt At + ξt St , t ∈ R+ . The following statements are equivalent: i) the portfolio strategy (ηt , ξt )t∈R+ is self-financing, ii) we have Vet = Ve0 + wt 0 ξu dXu , (5.9) t ∈ R+ . Proof. Assuming that (i) holds, the self-financing condition and (5.1)-(5.2) show that dVt = ηt dAt + ξt dSt = rηt At dt + µξt St dt + σξt St dBt = rVt dt + (µ − r)ξt St dt + σξt St dBt , t ∈ R+ , hence e −rt dVt = r e −rt Vt dt + (µ − r) e −rt ξt St dt + σ e −rt ξt St dBt , t ∈ R+ , and dVet = d e −rt Vt = −r e −rt Vt dt + e −rt dVt = (µ − r)ξt e −rt St dt + σξt e −rt St dBt = (µ − r)ξt Xt dt + σξt Xt dBt = ξt dXt , t ∈ R+ , i.e. (5.9) holds by integrating on both sides as Vet − Ve0 = wt 0 dVeu = wt 0 ξu dXu , t ∈ R+ . (ii) Conversely, if (5.9) is satisfied we have dVt = d( e rt Vet ) = r e rt Vet dt + e rt dVet = r e rt Vet dt + e rt ξt dXt = rVt dt + e rt ξt dXt = rVt dt + e rt ξt Xt ((µ − r)dt + σdBt ) = rVt dt + ξt St ((µ − r)dt + σdBt ) = rηt At dt + µξt St dt + σξt St dBt " 143 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault = ηt dAt + ξt dSt , hence the portfolio is self-financing according to Definition 5.1. As a consequence of (5.9), the hedging problem of a claim C with maturity T is reduced to that of finding the representation of the discounted claim C̃ = e −rT C as a stochastic integral: C̃ = Ve0 + wT 0 ξu dXu . Note also that (5.9) shows that the value of a self-financing portfolio can be written as wt wt Vt = e rt V0 + (µ − r) e r(t−u) ξu Su du + σ e r(t−u) ξu Su dBu , t ∈ R+ . 0 0 (5.10) 5.3 Arbitrage and Risk-Neutral Measures In continuous-time, the definition of arbitrage follows the lines of its analogs in the discrete and two-step models. In the sequel we will only consider admissible portfolio strategies whose total value Vt remains nonnegative for all times t ∈ [0, T ]. Definition 5.3. A portfolio strategy (ξt , ηt )t∈[0,T ] with price Vt = ξt St +ηt At , t ∈ R+ , constitutes an arbitrage opportunity if all three following conditions are satisfied: i) V0 6 0, ii) VT > 0, iii) P(VT > 0) > 0. Roughly speaking, (ii) means that the investor wants no loss, (iii) means that he wishes to sometimes make a strictly positive gain, and (i) means that he starts with zero capital or even with a debt. Next, we turn to the definition of risk-neutral measures in continuous time. Recall that the filtration (Ft )t∈R+ is generated by Brownian motion (Bt )t∈R+ , i.e. Ft = σ(Bu : 0 6 u 6 t), t ∈ R+ . Definition 5.4. A probability measure P∗ on Ω is called a risk-neutral measure if it satisfies IE∗ [St |Fu ] = e r(t−u) Su , 0 6 u 6 t, (5.11) where IE∗ denotes the expectation under P∗ . 144 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " The Black-Scholes PDE From the relation At = e r(t−u) Au , 0 6 u 6 t, we interpret (5.11) by saying that the expected return of the risky asset St under P∗ equals the return of the riskless asset At . The discounted price Xt of the risky asset in $ at time 0 is defined by Xt = e −rt St = St , At /A0 t ∈ R+ , i.e. At /A0 plays the role of a numéraire in the sense of Chapter 12. Definition 5.5. A continuous-time process (Zt )t∈R+ of integrable random variables is a martingale with respect to the filtration (Ft )t∈R+ if IE[Zt |Fs ] = Zs , 0 6 s 6 t. Note that when (Zt )t∈R+ is a martingale, Zt is in particular Ft -measurable for all t ∈ R+ . In continuous-time finance, the martingale property can be used to characterize risk-neutral probability measures, for the derivation of pricing partial differential equations (PDEs), and for the computation of conditional expectations. As in the discrete-time case, the notion of martingale can be used to characterize risk-neutral measures as in the next proposition. Proposition 5.6. The measure P∗ is risk-neutral if and only if the discounted price process (Xt )t∈R+ is a martingale under P∗ . Proof. If P∗ is a risk-neutral measure we have IE∗ [Xt |Fu ] = IE∗ [ e −rt St |Fu ] = e −rt IE∗ [St |Fu ] = e −rt e r(t−u) Su = e −ru Su = Xu , 0 6 u 6 t, hence (Xt )t∈R+ is a martingale. Conversely, if (Xt )t∈R+ is a martingale then IE∗ [St |Fu ] = e rt IE∗ [Xt |Fu ] = e rt Xu = e r(t−u) Su , 0 6 u 6 t, hence the measure P is risk-neutral according to Definition 5.4. ∗ " 145 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault As in the discrete-time case, P] would be called a risk premium measure if it satisfied IE] [St |Fu ] > e r(t−u) Su , 0 6 u 6 t, meaning that by taking risks in buying St , one could make an expected return higher than that of At = e r(t−u) Au , 0 6 u 6 t. Similarly, a negative risk premium measure P[ satisfies IE[ [St |Fu ] < e r(t−u) Su , 0 6 u 6 t. Next, we note that the first fundamental theorem of asset pricing also holds in continuous time, and can be used to check for the existence of arbitrage opportunities. Theorem 5.7. A market is without arbitrage opportunity if and only if it admits at least one (equivalent) risk-neutral measure P∗ . Proof. cf. [HP81] and Chapter VII-4a of [Shi99]. 5.4 Market Completeness Definition 5.8. A contingent claim with payoff C is said to be attainable if there exists a (self-financing) portfolio strategy (ηt , ξt )t∈[0,T ] such that C = VT . In this case the price of the claim at time t will be equal to the value Vt of any self-financing portfolio hedging C. Definition 5.9. A market model is said to be complete if every contingent claim C is attainable. The next result is a continuous-time restatement of the second fundamental theorem of asset pricing. Theorem 5.10. A market model without arbitrage opportunities is complete if and only if it admits only one (equivalent) risk-neutral measure P∗ . Proof. cf. [HP81] and Chapter VII-4a of [Shi99]. In the Black-Scholes model one can show the existence of a unique risk-neutral measure, hence the model is without arbitrage and complete. 5.5 The Black-Scholes Formula We start by deriving the Black-Scholes Partial Differential Equation (PDE) for the price of a self-financing portfolio. Note that the drift parameter µ in 146 " This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html The Black-Scholes PDE (5.2) is absent of the PDE (5.12) and is not involved in the Black-Scholes formula (5.17). Proposition 5.11. Let (ηt , ξt )t∈R+ be a portfolio strategy such that (i) (ηt , ξt )t∈R+ is self-financing, (ii) the value Vt := ηt At + ξt St , t ∈ R+ , takes the form Vt = g(t, St ), for some function g ∈ C 1,2 t ∈ R+ , ((0, ∞) × (0, ∞)). Then the function g(t, x) satisfies the Black-Scholes PDE rg(t, x) = ∂g 1 ∂2g ∂g (t, x) + rx (t, x) + σ 2 x2 2 (t, x), ∂t ∂x 2 ∂x x > 0, (5.12) t ∈ [0, T ], and ξt is given by ξt = ∂g (t, St ), ∂x (5.13) t ∈ R+ . Proof. First, note that the self-financing condition (5.8) in Proposition 5.1 implies dVt = ηt dAt + ξt dSt = rηt At dt + µξt St dt + σξt St dBt (5.14) = rVt dt + (µ − r)ξt St dt + σξt St dBt = rg(t, St )dt + (µ − r)ξt St dt + σξt St dBt , t ∈ R+ . We now rewrite (4.26) under the form of an Itô process St = S0 + wt 0 vs ds + wt 0 us dBs , t ∈ R+ , as in (4.20), by taking ut = σSt , and vt = µSt , t ∈ R+ . By (4.22), the application of Itô’s formula Theorem 4.11 to Vt = g(t, St ) leads to ∂g ∂g (t, St )dt + ut (t, St )dBt ∂x ∂x ∂g 1 ∂2g + (t, St )dt + |ut |2 2 (t, St )dt ∂t 2 ∂x dVt = dg(t, St ) = vt " 147 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault = ∂g ∂g ∂g 1 ∂2g (t, St )dt + µSt (t, St )dt + σ 2 St2 2 (t, St )dt + σSt (t, St )dBt . ∂t ∂x 2 ∂x ∂x (5.15) By respective identification of the terms in dBt and dt in (5.14) and (5.15) we get 2 g(t, St ) + (µ − r)ξt St dt = ∂g (t, St )dt + µSt ∂g (t, St )dt + 1 σ 2 S 2 ∂ g (t, St )dt, t ∂t ∂x 2 ∂x2 ξt St σdBt = St σ ∂g (t, St )dBt , ∂x hence ∂g ∂g 1 2 2 ∂2g rg(t, St ) = ∂t (t, St ) + rSt ∂x (t, St ) + 2 σ St ∂x2 (t, St ), ξt = ∂g (t, St ). ∂x (5.16) The derivative giving ξt in (5.13) is called the Delta of the option price, cf. Proposition 5.13 below. The amount invested on the riskless asset is ηt At = Vt − ξt St = g(t, St ) − St ∂g (t, St ), ∂x and ηt is given by ηt = = = Vt − ξt St At g(t, St ) − St ∂g (t, St ) ∂x At g(t, St ) − St ∂g (t, St ) ∂x . A0 e rt In the next proposition we add a terminal condition g(T, x) = f (x) to the Black-Scholes PDE in order to price a claim C of the form C = h(ST ). As in the discrete-time case, the arbitrage price πt (C) at time t ∈ [0, T ] of the claim C is defined to be the price Vt of the self-financing portfolio hedging C. 148 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " The Black-Scholes PDE Proposition 5.12. The arbitrage price πt (C) at time t ∈ [0, T ] of the option with payoff C = h(ST ) is given by πt (C) = g(t, St ), where the function g(t, x) is solution of the following Black-Scholes PDE: ∂g 1 ∂g ∂2g rg(t, x) = (t, x) + rx (t, x) + σ 2 x2 2 (t, x), ∂t ∂x 2 ∂x g(T, x) = h(x), x > 0. Market terms and data The gearing at time t ∈ [0, T ] of the option with payoff C = h(ST ) is defined as the ratio St St Gt := = , t ∈ [0, T ]. πt (C) g(t, St ) The effective gearing at time t ∈ [0, T ] of the option with payoff C = h(ST ) is defined as the ratio EGt := Gt ξt ∂g = Gt (t, St ) ∂x St ∂g = (t, St ) πt (C) ∂x St ∂g = (t, St ) g(t, St ) ∂x ∂ log g = St (t, St ), ∂x t ∈ [0, T ]. The break-even price BEPt of the underlying is the value of S for which the intrinsic option payoff h(S) equals the option price πt (C) at time t ∈ [0, T ]. For European call options it is given by BEPt := K + πt (C) = K + g(t, St ), t = 0, 1, . . . , N. whereas for European put options it is given by BEPt := K − πt (C) = K − g(t, St ), t = 0, 1, . . . , N. The option premium OPt can be defined as the variation required from the underlying in order to reach the break-even price, i.e. we have OPt := " BEPt − St K + g(t, St ) − St ,= , St St t = 0, 1, . . . , N, 149 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault for European call options, and OPt := St − BEPt St + g(t, St ) − K = , St St t = 0, 1, . . . , N, for European put options. The term “premium” is sometimes also used to denote the arbitrage price g(t, St ) of the option. Forward contracts When C = ST − K is the (linear) payoff of a forward contract, i.e. f (x) = x − K, the Black-Scholes PDE admits the easy solution g(t, x) = x − K e −r(T −t) , x > 0, t ∈ [0, T ], and the Delta of the option price is given by ξt = ∂g (t, St ) = 1, ∂x t ∈ [0, T ], cf. Exercise 5.4. The forward contract can be realized by the option issuer as follows: a) At time t, receive the option premium St − e −r(T −t) K from the option buyer. b) Borrow e −r(T −t) K from the bank, to be refunded at maturity. c) Buy the risky asset using the amount St − e −r(T −t) K + e −r(T −t) K = St . d) Hold the risky asset until maturity (do nothing, constant portfolio strategy). e) At maturity T , hand in the asset to the option holder, who gives the price K in exchange. f) Use the amount K = e r(T −t) e −r(T −t) K to refund the lender of e −r(T −t) K borrowed at time t. Forward contracts can be used for physical delivery, e.g. live cattle. For a future contract expiring at time T we take K = S0 e rT and the contract is usually quoted at time t using the forward price e r(T −t) (St − K e −r(T −t) ) = e r(T −t) St − K = e r(T −t) St − S0 e rT , or simply using e r(T −t) St . Future contracts are non-deliverable forward contracts which are “marked to market” at each time step via a cash flow between both parties, ensuring that the absolute difference | e r(T −t) St − K| has been credited to the buyer’s account if e r(T −t) St > K, or to the seller’s account if e r(T −t) St < K. 150 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " The Black-Scholes PDE Black-Scholes formula for European call options Recall that in the case of a European call option with strike price K the payoff function is given by f (x) = (x − K)+ and the Black-Scholes PDE reads ∂g ∂g 1 ∂2g rgc (t, x) = c (t, x) + rx c (t, x) + σ 2 x2 2c (t, x) ∂t ∂x 2 ∂x gc (T, x) = (x − K)+ . In Sections 5.6 and 5.7 we will prove that the solution of this PDE is given by the Black-Scholes formula gc (t, x) = Bl(K, x, σ, r, T − t) = xΦ d+ (T − t) − K e −r(T −t) Φ d− (T − t) , (5.17) with 2 log(x/K) + (r + σ /2)(T − t) √ d+ (T − t) := , (5.18) σ T −t d− (T − t) := log(x/K) + (r − σ 2 /2)(T − t) √ , σ T −t (5.19) cf. Proposition 5.16 below. Here, “log” denotes the neperian logarithm “ln”, and 2 1 wx Φ(x) := √ e −y /2 dy, x ∈ R, 2π −∞ denotes the standard Gaussian distribution function, with √ d+ (T − t) = d− (T − t) + σ T − t. In other words, a European call option with strike price K and maturity T is priced at time t ∈ [0, T ] as gc (t, St ) = Bl(K, St , σ, r, T −t) = St Φ d+ (T − t) − K e −r(T −t) Φ d− (T − t) , | {z } | {z } risky investment riskless investment t ∈ [0, T ]. The following script is an implementation of the Black-Scholes formula for European call options in R.∗ One can easily check that +∞, x > K, lim d+ (T − t) = lim d− (T − t) = t%T t%T −∞, x < K, ∗ Download the corresponding IPython notebook that can be run here. " 151 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault BSCall <- function(S, K, r, T, sigma) {d1 <- (log(S/K)+(r+sigma^2/2)*T)/(sigma*sqrt(T)) d2 <- d1 - sigma * sqrt(T) BSCall = S*pnorm(d1) - K*exp(-r*T)*pnorm(d2) BSCall} Table 5.1: The Black-Scholes call function in R. which allows us to recover the boundary condition x>K xΦ(+∞) − KΦ(+∞) = x − K, gc (T, x) = = (x − K)+ xΦ(−∞) − KΦ(−∞) = 0, x<K at t = T . Similarly we can check that +∞, lim d− (T − t) = T →∞ −∞, r > σ 2 /2, r < σ 2 /2, and limT →∞ d+ (T − t) = +∞, hence lim Bl(K, St , σ, r, T − t) = St , T →∞ t ∈ R+ . Figure 5.3 presents an interactive graph of the Black call price function, i.e. the solution (t, x) 7−→ gc (t, x) = xΦ d+ (T − t) − K e −r(T −t) Φ d− (T − t) of the Black-Scholes PDE for a call option. Fig. 5.3: Graph of the Black-Scholes call price function with strike price K = 100.∗ 152 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " The Black-Scholes PDE The next proposition is proved by a direct differentiation of the Black-Scholes function, and will be recovered later using a probabilistic argument in Proposition 6.11 below. Proposition 5.13. The Black-Scholes Delta of the European call option is given by ∂gc ξt = (t, St ) = Φ d+ (T − t) ∈ [0, 1], (5.20) ∂x where d+ (T − t) is given by (5.18). Proof. By (5.17) we have ∂ log(x/K) + (r + σ 2 /2)(T − t) ∂gc √ (t, x) = xΦ (5.21) ∂x ∂x σ T −t 2 ∂ log(x/K) + (r − σ /2)(T − t) √ − K e −r(T −t) Φ ∂x σ T −t log(x/K) + (r + σ 2 /2)(T − t) √ =Φ σ T −t ∂ log(x/K) + (r + σ 2 /2)(T − t) √ +x Φ ∂x σ T −t log(x/K) + (r − σ 2 /2)(T − t) −r(T −t) ∂ √ −Ke Φ ∂x σ T −t log(x/K) + (r + σ 2 /2)(T − t) √ =Φ σ T −t 2 ! 1 1 log(x/K) + (r + σ 2 /2)(T − t) √ + p exp − 2 σ T −t σ 2π(T − t) 2 ! −r(T −t) 1 log(x/K) + (r − σ 2 /2)(T − t) Ke p √ exp − − 2 σ T −t σx 2π(T − t) 2 log(x/K) + (r + σ /2)(T − t) √ =Φ σ T −t 2 ! 1 1 log(x/K) + (r + σ 2 /2)(T − t) √ + p exp − 2 σ T −t σ 2π(T − t) ! 2 K e −r(T −t) 1 log(x/K) + (r + σ 2 /2)(T − t) x p √ − exp − + r(T − t) − log 2 K σ T −t σx 2π(T − t) log(x/K) + (r + σ 2 /2)(T − t) √ =Φ . σ T −t ∗ Right click on the figure for interaction and “Full Screen Multimedia” view. " 153 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault In Figure 5.4 we plot the the Delta of the European call option as a function of the underlying and of time to maturity. 2 1.5 1 0.5 020 15 200 10 150 Time to maturity T-t 100 5 50 underlying 0 0 0198 Fig. 5.4: Delta of a European call option with strike price K = 100. The Gamma of the European call option is defined as the second derivative of the option price with respect to the underlying, which gives γt = = 1 √ Φ0 d+ (T − t) St σ T − t 1 St σ p 2π(T − t) exp − 1 2 log(St /K) + (r + σ 2 /2)(T − t) √ σ T −t 2 ! . In Figure 5.5 we plot the (truncated) value of the Gamma of a European call option as a function of the underlying and of time to maturity. 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 101 100.5 0 0.005 100 0.01 underlying 0.015 99.5 0.02 0.025 Time to maturity T-t 99 0.03 Fig. 5.5: Gamma of a European call option with strike price K = 100. 0198 Since Gamma is always nonnegative, the Black-Scholes hedging strategy is to keep buying the underlying risky asset when its price increases, and to sell it when its price decreases, as can be checked from Figure 5.5. 154 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " The Black-Scholes PDE Option price Delta Gamma Vega Theta Rho g(t, St ) ∂g (t, St ) ∂x ∂2g (t, St ) 2 ∂x ∂g (t, St ) ∂σ ∂g (t, St ) ∂t ∂g (t, St ) ∂t Call St Φ(d+ (T − t)) − K e −r(T −t) Φ(d− (T − t)) Put K e −r(T −t) Φ(−d− (T − t)) − St Φ(−d+ (T − t)) Φ(d+ (T − t)) −Φ(−d+ (T − t)) Φ0 (d+ (T − t)) √ St σ T − t √ St T − tΦ0 (d+ (T − t)) − St σΦ0 (d+ (T − t)) St σΦ0 (d+ (T − t)) √ √ − rK e −r(T −t) Φ(d− (T − t)) − + rK e −r(T −t) Φ(−d− (T − t)) 2 T −t 2 T −t K(T − t) e −r(T −t) Φ(d− (T − t)) −K(T − t) e −r(T −t) Φ(−d− (T − t)) Table 5.2: Black-Scholes Greeks (Wikipedia). T= K= gc St ∂ log ∂x (t,St ,σ,T )= = StS−K t =σ c (t,S ,σ,T ) = ∂g t ∂σ K +gc = gc (t,St ,σ,T ) = 6000 c (t,S ,σ,T ) = ∂g t ∂t T −t= c (t,S ,σ,T ) = ∂g t ∂x = g (t,SSt,σ,T ) c t = St +gc (t,St ,σ,T )−K K +gc (t,St ,σ,T ) =St Fig. 5.6: Warrant terms and data. The R package bizdays can be used to compute times to maturity. Black-Scholes formula for European put options Similarly, in the case of a European put option with strike price K the payoff function is given by f (x) = (K − x)+ and the Black-Scholes PDE reads " 155 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault ∂g ∂g 1 ∂ 2 gp rgp (t, x) = p (t, x) + rx p (t, x) + σ 2 x2 (t, x), ∂t ∂x 2 ∂x2 gp (T, x) = (K − x)+ , with explicit solution gp (t, x) = K e −r(T −t) Φ − d− (T − t) − xΦ − d+ (T − t) , with (5.22) d+ (T − t) = log(x/K) + (r + σ 2 /2)(T − t) √ , σ T −t (5.23) d− (T − t) = log(x/K) + (r − σ 2 /2)(T − t) √ , σ T −t (5.24) as illustrated in Figure 5.7. In other words, a European put option with strike price K and maturity T is priced at time t ∈ [0, T ] as gp (t, St ) = K e −r(T −t) Φ − d− (T − t) − St Φ − d+ (T − t) , | {z } | {z } riskless investment risky investment t ∈ [0, T ]. The following script is an implementation of the Black-Scholes formula for European put options in R. BSPut <- function(S, K, r, T, sigma) {d1 = (log(S/K)+(r-sigma^2/2)*T)/(sigma*sqrt(T)) d2 = d1 - sigma * sqrt(T) BSPut = K*exp(-r*T) * pnorm(-d2) - S*pnorm(-d1) BSPut} Table 5.3: The Black-Scholes put function in R. 156 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " The Black-Scholes PDE 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 7 90 95 100 105 underlying HK$ 110 115 120 0 1 2 3 8 9 10 6 5 4 time to maturity T-t Fig. 5.7: Graph of the Black-Scholes put price function with strike price K = 100. Note that the call-put parity relation g(t, St ) = x − K e −r(T −t) = gc (t, St ) − gp (t, St ), 0 6 t 6 T, (5.25) is also satisfied from (5.17) and (5.22). Numerical examples In Figure 5.8 we consider the historical stock price of HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) over one year: Fig. 5.8: Graph of the stock price of HSBC Holdings. Consider a call option issued by Societe Generale on 31 December 2008 with strike price K=$63.704, maturity T = October 05, 2009, and an entitlement ratio of 100, meaning that one option contract is divided into 100 warrants, cf. page 7. The next graph gives the time evolution of the Black-Scholes portfolio price t 7−→ gc (t, St ) " 157 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault driven by the market price t 7−→ St of the underlying risky asset as given in Figure 5.8, in which the number of days is counted from the origin and not from maturity. 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 100 90 80 underlying HK$ 70 60 50 40 150 200 100 0 50 time in days Fig. 5.9: Path of the Black-Scholes price for a call option on HSBC. As a consequence of Proposition 5.13, in the Black-Scholes model the amount invested in the risky asset is log(St /K) + (r + σ 2 /2)(T − t) √ St ξt = St Φ d+ (T − t) = St Φ > 0, σ T −t which is always positive, i.e. there is no short selling, and the amount invested on the riskless asset is log(St /K) + (r − σ 2 /2)(T − t) √ ηt At = −K e −r(T −t) Φ 6 0, σ T −t which is always negative, i.e. we are constantly borrowing money, as noted in Figure 5.10. Black-Scholes price Risky investment Riskless investment Underlying 100 80 K 60 HK$ 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 0 50 100 150 200 Fig. 5.10: Time evolution of a hedging portfolio for a call option on HSBC. 158 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " The Black-Scholes PDE Cash settlement. In the case of a cash settlement, the option issuer will satisfy the option contract by selling ξT = 1 stock at the price ST = $83, refund the K = $63 riskless investment, and hand in the remaining amount C = (ST − K)+ = 83 − 63 = $20 to the option holder. Physical delivery. In the case of physical delivery of the underlying asset, the option issuer will deliver ξT = 1 stock to the option holder in exchange for K = $63, which will be used to refund the $2 riskless investment. For one more example, we consider a put option issued by BNP Paribas on 04 November 2008 with strike price K=$77.667, maturity T = October 05, 2009, and entitlement ratio 92.593, cf. page 7. In the next Figure 5.11, the number of days is counted from the origin and not from maturity. 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 50 100 time in days 150 200 100 90 80 70 40 50 60 underlying HK$ Fig. 5.11: Path of the Black-Scholes price for a put option on HSBC. The Delta of the Black-Scholes put option is given by ξt = −Φ − d+ (T − t) ∈ [−1, 0], and the amount invested on the risky asset is log(St /K) + (r + σ 2 /2)(T − t) √ −St Φ d+ (T − t) = −St Φ − 6 0, σ T −t i.e. there is always short selling, and the amount invested on the riskless asset is log(St /K) + (r − σ 2 /2)(T − t) √ > 0, K e −r(T −t) Φ − σ T −t which is always positive, i.e. we are constantly investing on the riskless asset. In the above example the put option finished out of the money (OTM), so that no cash settlement or physical delivery occurs. " 159 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault Black-Scholes price Risky investment Riskless investment Underlying 100 80 K 60 HK$ 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 0 50 100 150 200 Fig. 5.12: Time evolution of the hedging portfolio for a put option on HSBC. 5.6 The Heat Equation In this section we study the heat equation ∂g 1 ∂2g (t, y) = (t, y) ∂t 2 ∂y 2 (5.26) which is used to model the diffusion of heat over time through solids. Here, the data of g(x, t) represents the temperature measured at time t and point x. We refer the reader to [Wid75] for a complete treatment of this topic. We can check by a direct calculation that the Gaussian probability density √ 2 function g(t, y) := e −y /(2t) / 2πt solves the heat equation (5.26), as follows: ! 2 ∂g ∂ e −y /(2t) √ (t, y) = ∂t ∂t 2πt 2 2 y 2 e −y /(2t) e −y /(2t) √ + 2 √ =− 3/2 2t 2π 2t 2πt 1 y2 = − + 2 g(t, y), 2t 2t and 1 ∂ 1 ∂2g (t, y) = − 2 ∂y 2 2 ∂y 2 y e −y /(2t) √ t 2πt ! 2 2 1 e −y /(2t) y 2 e −y /(2t) √ =− + 2 √ 2t 2t 2πt 2πt 1 y2 = − + 2 g(t, y), t ∈ R+ , 2t 2t 160 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html y ∈ R. " The Black-Scholes PDE Fig. 5.13: Time-dependent solution of the heat equation.∗ In Section 5.7 this equation will be shown to be equivalent to the BlackScholes PDE after a change of variables. In particular this will lead to the explicit solution of the Black-Scholes PDE. Proposition 5.14. The heat equation 2 ∂g (t, y) = 1 ∂ g (t, y) ∂t 2 ∂y 2 g(0, y) = ψ(y) (5.27) with initial condition g(0, y) = ψ(y) has the solution g(t, y) = w∞ −∞ 2 ψ(z) e −(y−z) /(2t) dz √ , 2πt t > 0. (5.28) Proof. We have 2 ∂g ∂ w∞ dz (t, y) = ψ(z) e −(y−z) /(2t) √ ∂t ∂t −∞ 2πt ! 2 w∞ ∂ e −(y−z) /(2t) √ = ψ(z) dz −∞ ∂t 2πt 2 1w∞ (y − z)2 1 dz = ψ(z) − e −(y−z) /(2t) √ 2 2 −∞ t t 2πt ∂ 2 −(y−z)2 /(2t) dz 1w∞ √ ψ(z) 2 e = 2 −∞ ∂z 2πt w 2 2 1 ∞ ∂ dz = ψ(z) 2 e −(y−z) /(2t) √ 2 −∞ ∂y 2πt ∗ The animation works in Acrobat Reader on the entire pdf file. " 161 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault 2 1 ∂2 w ∞ dz ψ(z) e −(y−z) /(2t) √ 2 ∂y 2 −∞ 2πt 1 ∂2g = (t, y). 2 ∂y 2 = On the other hand it can be checked that at time t = 0, lim t→0 w∞ −∞ ψ(z) e −(y−z) 2 /(2t) w∞ 2 dz dz √ = lim ψ(y + z) e −z /(2t) √ = ψ(y), 2πt t→0 −∞ 2πt y ∈ R. Let us provide a second proof of Proposition 5.14 using stochastic calculus and Brownian motion. Note that under the change of variable x = z − y we have w∞ 2 dz g(t, y) = ψ(z) e −(y−z) /(2t) √ −∞ 2πt w∞ −x2 /(2t) dx √ = ψ(y + x) e −∞ 2πt = IE[ψ(y − Bt )], where (Bt )t∈R+ is a standard Brownian motion. Applying Itô’s formula we have w w t t 1 IE[ψ(y − Bt )] = ψ(y) − IE ψ 0 (y − Bs )dBs + IE ψ 00 (y − Bs )ds 0 0 2 1wt 00 = ψ(y) + IE [ψ (y − Bs )] ds 2 0 1 w t ∂2 = ψ(y) + IE [ψ(y − Bs )] ds, 2 0 ∂y 2 since the expectation of the stochastic integral is zero. Hence ∂g ∂ (t, y) = IE[ψ(y − Bt )] ∂t ∂t 1 ∂2 = IE [ψ(y − Bt )] 2 ∂y 2 2 1∂ g = (t, y). 2 ∂y 2 Concerning the initial condition we check that g(0, y) = IE[ψ(y − B0 )] = IE[ψ(y)] = ψ(y). The expression g(t, y) = IE[ψ(y − Bt )] provides a probabilistic interpretation of the heat diffusion phenomenon based on Brownian motion. Namely, when 162 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " The Black-Scholes PDE ψ(y) = 1[−ε,ε] (y), we find that g(t, y) = IE[ψ(y − Bt )] = IE[1[−ε,ε] (y − Bt )] = P y − Bt ∈ [−ε, ε] = P y − ε 6 Bt 6 y + ε represents the probability of finding Bt within a neighborhood of the point y ∈ R. 5.7 Solution of the Black-Scholes PDE In this section we will solve the Black-Scholes PDE by the kernel method of Section 5.6 and a change of variables. This solution method uses a transformation of variables (5.30) which involves the time inversion t 7−→ T − t on the interval [0, T ], so that the terminal condition at time T in the BlackScholes equation (5.29) becomes an initial condition at time t = 0 in the heat equation (5.32). Proposition 5.15. Assume that f (t, x) solves the Black-Scholes PDE ∂f ∂f 1 ∂2f rf (t, x) = (t, x) + rx (t, x) + σ 2 x2 2 (t, x), ∂t ∂x 2 ∂x + f (T, x) = (x − K) , (5.29) with terminal condition h(x) = (x − K)+ . x > 0. Then the function g(t, y) defined by 2 g(t, y) = e rt f T − t, e σy+(σ /2−r)t (5.30) solves the heat equation (5.27) with initial condition g(0, y) = h( e σy ), i.e. y ∈ R, 2 ∂g (t, y) = 1 ∂ g (t, y) ∂t 2 ∂y 2 g(0, y) = h( e σy ). Proof. Letting s = T − t and x = e σy+(σ 2 /2−r)t (5.31) (5.32) we have 2 2 ∂g ∂f (t, y) = r e rt f (T − t, e σy+(σ /2−r)t ) − e rt T − t, e σy+(σ /2−r)t ∂t ∂s 2 2 2 σ ∂f + − r e rt e σy+(σ /2−r)t T − t, e σy+(σ /2−r)t 2 ∂x " 163 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault 2 ∂f σ ∂f (T − t, x) + − r e rt x (T − t, x) ∂s 2 ∂x σ 2 rt ∂f 1 rt 2 2 ∂ 2 f (T − t, x) + e x (T − t, x), (5.33) = e x σ 2 ∂x2 2 ∂x = r e rt f (T − t, x) − e rt where on the last step we used the Black-Scholes PDE. On the other hand we have 2 2 ∂g ∂f (t, y) = σ e rt e σy+(σ /2−r)t T − t, e σy+(σ /2−r)t ∂y ∂x and 2 1 ∂g 2 σ 2 rt σy+(σ2 /2−r)t ∂f (t, y) = e e T − t, e σy+(σ /2−r)t 2 2 ∂y 2 ∂x 2 2 σ2 ∂2f + e rt e 2σy+2(σ /2−r)t 2 T − t, e σy+(σ /2−r)t 2 ∂x σ 2 rt 2 ∂ 2 f σ 2 rt ∂f e x (T − t, x) + e x (T − t, x). (5.34) = 2 ∂x 2 ∂x2 We conclude by comparing (5.33) with (5.34), which shows that g(t, x) solves the heat equation (5.27) with initial condition g(0, y) = f (T, e σy ) = h( e σy ). In the next proposition we recover the Black-Scholes formula (5.17) by solving the PDE (5.29). The Black-Scholes will also be recovered by probabilistic arguments and the computation of an expectation in Proposition 6.4. Proposition 5.16. When h(x) = (x−K)+ , the solution of the Black-Scholes PDE (5.29) is given by f (t, x) = xΦ d+ (T − t) − K e −r(T −t) Φ d− (T − t) , where 2 1 wx Φ(x) = √ e −y /2 dy, 2π −∞ and x ∈ R, d+ (T − t) := log(x/K) + (r + σ 2 /2)(T − t) √ , σ T −t d− (T − t) := log(x/K) + (r − σ 2 /2)(T − t) √ . σ T −t Proof. By inversion of (5.30) with s = T − t and x = e σy+(σ 164 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html 2 /2−r)t we get " The Black-Scholes PDE −(σ 2 /2 − r)(T − s) + log x f (s, x) = e −r(T −s) g T − s, . σ Hence using the solution (5.28) and Relation (5.31) we get −(σ 2 /2 − r)(T − t) + log x f (t, x) = e −r(T −t) g T − t, σ w ∞ −(σ 2 /2 − r)(T − t) + log x 2 dz −r(T −t) ψ + z e −z /(2(T −t)) p = e −∞ σ 2π(T − t) w∞ 2 2 dz = e −r(T −t) h x e σz−(σ /2−r)(T −t) e −z /(2(T −t)) p −∞ 2π(T − t) + w∞ 2 2 dz = e −r(T −t) x e σz−(σ /2−r)(T −t) − K e −z /(2(T −t)) p −∞ 2π(T − t) w∞ 2 2 dz = e −r(T −t) (−r+σ2 /2)(T −t)+log(K/x) x e σz−(σ /2−r)(T −t) − K e −z /(2(T −t)) p 2π(T − t) σ w∞ 2 2 dz e σz−(σ /2−r)(T −t) e −z /(2(T −t)) p = x e −r(T −t) √ −d− (T −t) T −t 2π(T − t) w∞ 2 dz e −z /(2(T −t)) p −K e −r(T −t) √ −d− (T −t) T −t 2π(T − t) w∞ 2 2 dz e σz−σ (T −t)/2−z /(2(T −t)) p =x √ −d− (T −t) T −t 2π(T − t) w∞ 2 dz e −z /(2(T −t)) p −K e −r(T −t) √ −d− (T −t) T −t 2π(T − t) w∞ 2 dz e −(z−σ(T −t)) /(2(T −t)) p =x √ −d− (T −t) T −t 2π(T − t) w∞ 2 dz −K e −r(T −t) e −z /(2(T −t)) p √ −d− (T −t) T −t 2π(T − t) w∞ 2 dz =x e −z /(2(T −t)) p √ −d− (T −t) T −t−σ(T −t) 2π(T − t) w∞ 2 dz −K e −r(T −t) e −z /(2(T −t)) p √ −d− (T −t) T −t 2π(T − t) w∞ w∞ 2 2 dz dz =x e −z /2 √ − K e −r(T −t) e −z /2 √ √ −d− (T −t)−σ T −t d− (T −t) 2π 2π = x 1 − Φ − d+ (T − t) − K e −r(T −t) 1 − Φ − d− (T − t) = xΦ d+ (T − t) − K e −r(T −t) Φ d− (T − t) , where we used the relation 1 − Φ(a) = Φ(−a), " a ∈ R. 165 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault Exercises Exercise 5.1 Black-Scholes PDE with dividends. Consider an underlying asset price process (St )t∈R+ modeled as dSt = (µ − δ)St dt + σSt dBt , where (Bt )t∈R+ is a standard Brownian motion and δ > 0 is a continuoustime dividend rate. By absence of arbitrage, the payment of a dividend entails a drop in the stock price by the same amount occuring generally on the exdividend date, on which the purchase of the security no longer entitles the investor to the dividend amount. The list of investors entitled to dividend payment is consolidated on the date of record, and payment is made on the payable date. library(quantmod) getSymbols("0005.HK",from="2010-01-01",to=Sys.Date(),src="yahoo") getDividends("0005.HK",from="2010-01-01",to=Sys.Date(),src="yahoo") a) Assuming that dividends are reinvested into the portfolio with value Vt at time t, write down the portfolio change dVt . b) Assuming that the portfolio value Vt takes the form Vt = g(t, St ) at time t, derive the Black-Scholes PDE for the function g(t, x) with its terminal condition. c) Compute the price at time t ∈ [0, T ] of a European call option with strike price K by solving the corresponding Black-Scholes PDE. Exercise 5.2 Power option. (Exercise 3.7 continued). a) Solve the Black-Scholes PDE rg(x, t) = ∂g ∂g σ2 2 ∂ 2 g (x, t) + rx (x, t) + x (x, t) ∂t ∂x 2 ∂x2 (5.35) with terminal condition g(x, T ) = x2 , x > 0. Hint: Try a solution of the form g(x, t) = x2 f (t), and find f (t). b) Find the respective quantities ξt and ηt of the risky asset St and riskless asset At = e rt in the portfolio with value 166 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " The Black-Scholes PDE Vt = g(St , t) = ξt St + ηt At hedging the contract with payoff ST2 at maturity. Exercise 5.3 On December 18, 2007, a call warrant has been issued by Fortis Bank on the stock price S of the MTR Corporation with maturity T = 23/12/2008, strike price K = HK$ 36.08 and entitlement ratio=10. Recall that in the Black-Scholes model, the price at time t of a European claim on the underlying asset St , with strike price K, maturity T , interest rate r and volatility σ is given by the Black-Scholes formula as f (t, St ) = St Φ d+ (T − t) − K e −r(T −t) Φ d− (T − t) , where d− (T − t) = and Recall that (r − σ 2 /2)(T − t) + log(St /K) √ σ T −t √ d+ (T − t) = d− (T − t) + σ T − t. ∂f (t, St ) = Φ d+ (T − t) , ∂x see Proposition 5.13. a) Using the values of the Gaussian cumulative distribution function, compute the Black-Scholes price of the corresponding call option at time t =November 07, 2008 with St = HK$ 17.200, assuming a volatility σ = 90% = 0.90 and an annual risk-free interest rate r = 4.377% = 0.04377, b) Still using the values of the Gaussian cumulative distribution function, compute the quantity of the risky asset required in your portfolio at time t =November 07, 2008 in order to hedge one such option at maturity T = 23/12/2008. c) Figure 1 represents the Black-Scholes price of the call option as a function of σ ∈ [0.5, 1.5] = [50%, 150%]. " 167 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault 0.6 Black-Scholes price 0.5 HK$ 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 sigma 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 Fig. 5.14: Option price as a function of the volatility σ. Knowing that the closing price of the warrant on November 07, 2008 was HK$ 0.023, which value can you infer for the implied volatility σ at this date ?∗ Exercise 5.4 Forward contracts. Recall that the price πt (C) of a claim C = h(ST ) of maturity T can be written as πt (C) = g(t, St ), where the function g(t, x) satisfies the Black-Scholes PDE ∂g ∂g 1 ∂2g rg(t, x) = (t, x) + rx (t, x) + x2 σ 2 2 (t, x), ∂t ∂x 2 ∂x g(T, x) = h(x), (1) with terminal condition g(T, x) = h(x), x > 0. a) Assume that C is a forward contract with payoff C = ST − K, at time T . Find the function h(x) in (1). b) Find the solution g(t, x) of the above PDE and compute the price πt (C) at time t ∈ [0, T ]. Hint: search for a solution of the form g(t, x) = x − α(t) where α(t) is a function of t to be determined. c) Compute the quantity ∂g (t, St ) ξt = ∂x of risky assets in a self-financing portfolio hedging C. Exercise 5.5 ∗ Download the corresponding R code or the IPython notebook that can be run here. 168 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " The Black-Scholes PDE a) Solve the Black-Scholes PDE rg(t, x) = ∂g ∂g σ2 2 ∂ 2 g (t, x) (t, x) + rx (t, x) + x ∂t ∂x 2 ∂x2 (5.36) with terminal condition g(T, x) = 1, x > 0. Hint: Try a solution of the form g(t, x) = f (t) and find f (t). b) Find the respective quantities ξt and ηt of the risky asset St and riskless asset At = e rt in the portfolio with value Vt = g(t, St ) = ξt St + ηt At hedging the contract with payoff $1 at maturity. Similar exercise: Repeat the above questions with the terminal condition g(T, x) = x. Exercise 5.6 Binary options. Consider a price process (St )t∈R+ given by dSt = rdt + σdBt , St S0 = 1, under the risk-neutral measure P∗ . A binary (or digital) call option is a contract with maturity T , strike price K, and payoff $1 if ST > K, Cd := 1[K,∞) (ST ) = 0 if ST < K. a) Derive the Black-Schole PDE satisfied by the pricing function Cd (t, St ) of the binary call option, together with its terminal condition. b) Show that we have (r − σ 2 /2)(T − t) + log(x/K) √ Cd (t, x) = e −r(T −t) Φ σ T −t = e −r(T −t) Φ d− (T − t) , where d− (T − t) := (r − σ 2 /2)(T − t) + log(St /K) √ , σ T −t 0 6 t < T. Exercise 5.7 " 169 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault a) Solve the stochastic differential equation dSt = αSt dt + σdBt (5.37) in terms of α, σ > 0, and the initial condition S0 . b) Write down the Black-Scholes PDE satisfied by the function C(t, x), where C(t, St ) is the price at time t ∈ [0, T ] of the contingent claim with payoff φ(ST ) = exp(ST ), and identify the process Delta (ξt )t∈[0,T ] that hedges this claim. c) Solve the Black-Scholes PDE of Question (b) with the terminal condition φ(x) = e x , x > 0. Hint: Search for a solution of the form σ2 2 (h (t) − 1) , C(t, x) = exp −r(T − t) + xh(t) + 4r (5.38) where h(t) is a function to be determined, with h(T ) = 1. d) Compute the strategy (ξt , ηt )t∈[0,T ] that hedges the contingent claim with payoff exp(ST ). Exercise 5.8 Consider the backward induction relation (3.13), i.e. ve(t, x) = (1 − p∗N )e v (t + 1, x(1 + aN )) + p∗N ve (t + 1, x(1 + bN )) , using the renormalizations rN := rT /N and √ √ aN := (1 + rN ) e −σ T /N − 1, bN := (1 + rN ) e σ T /N − 1, N > 1, of Section 3.6, with p∗N = rN − aN bN − aN and p∗N = bN − rN . bN − aN a) Show that the Black-Scholes PDE of Proposition 5.11 can be recovered from the induction relation (3.13) when the number N of time steps tends to infinity. ∂gc b) Show that the expression of the Delta ξt = (t, St ) can be similarly ∂x recovered from the finite difference relation (3.18), i.e. (1) ξt (St−1 ) = v (t, (1 + bN )St−1 ) − v (t, (1 + aN )St−1 ) St−1 (bN − aN ) as N tends to infinity. 170 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " The Black-Scholes PDE Problem 5.9 Stop-loss start-gain strategy [Lip01] § 8.3.3. (Exercise 4.18 continued). Let (Bt )t∈R+ be a standard Brownian motion started at B0 ∈ R. a) We consider a simplified foreign exchange model in which the AUD is a risky asset and the AUD/SGD exchange rate at time t is modeled by Bt , i.e. AU$1 equals SG$Bt at time t. A foreign exchange (FX) European call option gives to its holder the right (but not the obligation) to receive AU$1 in exchange for K = SG$1 at maturity T . Give the option payoff at maturity, quoted in SGD. In the sequel, for simplicity we assume no time value of money (r = 0), i.e. the (riskless) SGD account is priced At = A0 = 1, t ∈ [0, T ]. b) Consider the following hedging strategy for the European call option of Question (a): i) If B0 > 1, charge the premium B0 − 1 at time 0, borrow SG$1 and purchase AU$1. ii) If B0 < 1, issue the option for free. iii) From time 0 to time T , purchase∗ AU$1 every time Bt crosses K = 1 from below, and sell† AU$1 each time Bt crosses K = 1 from above. Show that this strategy effectively hedges the foreign exchange European call option at maturity T . Hint. Note that it suffices to consider four scenarios based on B0 < 1 vs B0 < 1 and BT > 1 vs BT < 1. c) Determine the quantities ηt of SGD cash and ξt of AUD to be held in the portfolio and express the portfolio value V t = η t + ξt Bt at all times t ∈ [0, T ]. d) Compute the integral summation wt 0 ηs dAs + wt 0 ξs dBs of portfolio profits and losses at any time t ∈ [0, T ]. Hint. Apply the result of Question (e). e) Is the portfolio (ηt , ξt )t∈[0,T ] self-financing? How to interpret the answer in practice? ∗ † We need to borrow SG$1 if this is the first AUD purchase. We use the SG$1 product of the sale to refund the loan. " 171 This version: June 12, 2017 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html