* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download Securing the Fresh Water Systems of the Nepal Himalaya
Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup
Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup
Media coverage of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change adaptation wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in the United States wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on human health wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Years of Living Dangerously wikipedia , lookup
Climate change, industry and society wikipedia , lookup
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report wikipedia , lookup
Draft Securing the Fresh Water Systems of the Nepal Himalaya 1. Introduction The impacts of climate change are already noticeable and felt in the Himalayas regions as revealed by the rapid melting of glaciers, formation of new supraglacial lakes, expansion of existing lakes, and disappearing of some small lakes. The accelerating melting rate of snow and glacier will have an impact, for example, on water flows in rivers, health of the people and food and biomass productivity which depend on water derived from the Himalayas. Nevertheless, the efforts to reach a consensus at a global level to mitigate the impacts of climate change and to agree on a clear commitment to support poor and particularly vulnerable countries including mountain countries in their struggle to adapt to rapidly changing climate are still continuing. As an attempt to meet these challenges, the Royal Government of Bhutan (RGoB) felt an urgent need to take an action at regional and sub-regional levels and made a call for making a regional effort in meeting the climate adaptation challenges in the Eastern Himalayan countries. The RGoB has therefore proposed to bring together head of the state/governments from the four countries lying in the southern slopes of the Himalayas that include Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Bhutan for a summit meeting in October, 2011. As a follow-up initiative, a team of expert representatives from 4 countries met in August 2010 and agreed to jointly develop a road map for adapting to climate change in the Eastern Himalayan region in four key sectors namely, Water, Biodiversity, Food Security and Energy. The four national thematic roadmaps from four countries (16 in total) will be the basis to prepare 4 regional thematic paper or roadmap which is to be ratified at the Bhutan Climate Summit for a Living Himalayas in October 2011. This report forms the country roadmap on fresh water systems of the Himalayas for Nepal. The report first provides country specific information including impact of climate change on water resources followed by another section dealing with major climate change issues. The report then discusses on adaptation initiatives intended to minimize the negative impact and exploit the positive impact of climate change followed by a section on gap analysis, which provides information on weakness or initiatives yet to be started to manage the impact of climate change. The report finally presents strategies and actions required to secure the fresh water system of the Nepal Himalayas within next ten years. 2. Country Context 2.1 Location and Physiography Nepal is a land-locked country situated in the central part of the Himalayas stretching between 26022' and 30027' N latitudes and 80040' and 88012' E longitudes with an altitudinal range from 60m in the south to 8,848m (Mt. Everest, the world's highest mountain peak) in the north. The country is bordered by India in the east, west and south, and the People’s Republic of China in Draft the north. The country is about 885 km long (east-west) with an average breadth of 193 km (north-south). Fig. 1 Physiographic sub-division of Nepal The physiographic zone of Nepal is divided into Terai, Siwalik (Churia), Middle Mountain, High Mountain and High Himal, from south to north respectively (Fig. 1). Similarly, there exist three distinct ecological zones, namely Churia-Terai Range (also known as foothills / Siwalik), Middle Mountain (includes Mahabharat Range and Midlands) and High Mountain (includes also snow peaks). In terms of geological setting, Nepal is sub-divided in to five tectonic zones, which also roughly correspond to the physiographic and ecologic zones. Each of these geologic units are demarcated by geological fault structures, which are responsible for on-going mountain building process caused by the collision of Indian and Tibetan plates. The geologic, physiographic and ecologic zones are extended in east-west direction through out the country forming distinct area of diverse characteristic. The general topography is such that it forms flat Terai plane (along Indo-Nepal boarder), steep mountain slopes, deep gorge and river valleys, Dun valleys and mighty snow peaks (along Nepal-China boarder). Draft 2.2 Socio-economy Nepal, with an annual per capita gross domestic product (GDP) estimated at about US$562, is one of the poorest countries in South Asia. The real GDP growth at producer prices is estimated to be 4.6 % (GoN, 2010). Total population is projected to be 28 Millions and the population density is 157 persons/square km (Table 1). The population is predominantly rural with some urban centers such as the Kathmandu Valley gaining in inhabitants at the expense of rural areas. The Census of 2001 indicated that 14% of Nepal’s population was urban. However, migration to cities and valleys has been increased tremendously in the past decade. Poverty is widespread with about 30.9% of the population living below the prescribed poverty line. Only 26% of Nepal's women are literate, compared to 62% of men. Agriculture is the main source of livelihood for a majority of the population and more than 80% of the population is engaged in agriculture, which is still the largest sector of the economy, having a share of around 35% of the GDP. About 40% of the population has access to electricity but the gap between urban access (87%) and rural access (27%) is very large. Moreover, the Nepalese are the lowest per capita electricity users in South Asia (about 70 kilowatt-hours per year). Table 1: Areas and population by physiographic regions Physiographic Region Area Share km2 % High Mountains 51,817 35.2 Mid. Mountains 61,345 41.7 Churia/Terai 34,019 23.1 Total / average 147,181 100 1 According to the last census of 2001 Number of Districts 16 39 20 75 Population1 Share Population Density Million 1.7 10.3 11.3 23.3 % 7.3 44.3 48.4 100 Persons/km2 33 167 330 157 2.3 Climate The Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau play central role in the climate of Nepal which experiences a wide range of climates varying from the sub-tropical in the south to the alpine type in the north within a span of less than 200 km (north-south). The climate, predominantly influenced by the monsoons and westerly disturbance, is characterized by three distinct seasons: Summer (March to mid-June), Rainy (mid-June to September), and Winter (October to February) (Shrestha, 2004) The South Asian monsoon enters Nepal from southeast direction and precipitation start occurring as soon as it comes into contact with the Churia Range which is the first monsoon barrier. The monsoon rain is most abundant in the east and gradually declines as it moves westwards; while winter rains are higher in the northwest declining as it moves southeastwards. More than 80% of the total annual precipitation occurs during the summer four months (June to September). Comment [SD1]: The data itself suggest the Nepal's poverty standings, therefore, is it necessary to write the word poorest? Draft Likewise, the distribution of daily precipitation during the rainy season is also uneven. Sometimes, 10% of the total annual precipitation occurs in a single day (Alford, 1992), and 50 % of the total annual precipitation is often recorded within 10 days of the monsoon period (Dahal and Hasegawa, 2008). The average annual rainfall ranges from only 163mm at Lomangthan (Mustang) to 5,244mm at Lumle (near Pokhara). The Trans Himalaya region, which includes Mustang and Manang districts, receives annual precipitation of less than 500mm; the valleys of the Fore-Himalaya 500-1000mm; the Terai, Siwalik (Churia) Hills, lower Midlands valleys and Dun valleys between 1000 and 2000mm; and most slopes in the Midlands, Mahabharat Range, and Higher Himalaya between 2000 and 3000mm (Khanal et al. 1998). A few pockets, such as Pokhara (Kaski district) and Kanyam Tea Estate (Ilam district) receive more than 3,000mm of annual rainfall. In these places, rainfall events exceeding 300 mm within a 24-hours period, which disturb both slope and channel equilibrium on a regional scale, occurs frequently (Khanal 1995a, 1995b). Precipitation as high as 540 mm in 24 hours with a peak intensity of 70 mm per hour, has also been recorded in central Nepal (Dhital et al.1993). The risk of landslides on Himalayan mountain slopes is high when the daily precipitation exceeds 144mm (Dahal and Hasegawa, 2008). As the altitude increases, with a few exceptions, from south to north, the temperature also decreases almost in the same way (Table 2). In the Terai, a low land, the mean July temperature attaints remarkably high temperature of over 320 C. The Mahabharat and Churia range due to altitude and forest cover temperature ranges from 20 0 to 280 C. The river basins in the hilly regions have generally hot climate with over 300 C. The Kathmandu Valley situated in the midland region has moderately hot climate with the mean temperature ranging form 27 0 to 300 C. In the main Himalayas over 5,000m of altitude, temperature falls below the freezing point and climate becomes severely cold even during summer months (Shrestha, 2004). Table 2: Climate characteristics in different ecological belts of Nepal Physiographic zone High Himal High mountain Middle mountain Siwalik Terai Source: WECS, 2005 Ecological belt High Mountain Middle Moutain Churia/Terai Climate Arctic/alpine Cool/warm Average annual precipitation Snow/150mm200mm 275mm-2300mm Tropical/sub- 1100mm-3000mm tropical Mean annual temperature <30C-100C 100C-200C 200C-250C Draft 2.4 Climate Variability and Change Over the last 100 years, the warming in the Himalayas has been much greater than the global average of 0.74 oC (Du et al. 2004; IPCC 2007). Recent findings of Shrestha and Devkota (2010) have demonstrated that the major part of the eastern Himalaya is undergoing warming with increase in annual mean temperature at the rate of 0.04 to 0.06 oC/yr or higher, which is five times more than the global average. The higher altitude has experienced more temperature fluctuations, with the areas above 4000m exhibiting the highest warming rates posing great threat to the Himalayan ecosystem (Liu and Chen, 2000). An analysis of temperature trends in Nepal for the period of 1971-1994 has indicated a continuous warming at an average annual rate of 0.06 oC which varied spatially as well as according to seasons (Shrestha et al., 1999). For example, average annual temperature in the Terai regions in the south has been increased by about 0.04ºC/yr, whereas it is about 0.08ºC/yr in the middle mountain areas in the north. The pre-monsoon season (March-May) has showed the lowest warming rate of 0.03ºC/yr, while the post-monsoon season (October-November) has showed the highest one of 0.08ºC/yr (Shrestha, 2001). Similarly, another trend analysis conducted for the period of 1996-2005 has indicated the annual rate of warning to be 0.040C (Practical Action, 2009). Himalayan region has experienced both the increasing and decreasing trends of precipitation. The Tibetan Plateau in the northeast region (Zhao et al., 2004) and eastern and central parts (Xu et al., 2007) has shown the increasing precipitation trend while the decreasing trend was observed in western Tibetan region. Nepal, however, has shown no distinct long term trend in precipitation (Shrestha et al., 2000). NAPA (2010) has highlighted a fact that the General Circulation Models run with the SRES B2 scenario show the mean annual temperature to increase by an average of 1.20C by 2030, 1.70C by 2050 and 30C by 2100 compared to a pre2000 baseline. It has also mentioned results of another study which states that the mean annual temperature will increase by 1.4 0C by 2030, 2.80C by 2060 and 4.70C by 2090 following the General and Regional Circulation Models projections. The projections show higher temperature increments during winter as compared to the monsoon seasons. The NAPA report has further mentioned of precipitation projections which show no change in western and up to 5-10% increase in eastern Nepal for winter. During the summer months precipitations are projected to increase for the whole country in the range of 15 to 20%. The report also discusses a regional circulation model study which projects both rise and decline in the mean annual precipitation with no clear trends. In terms of spatial distribution, this study projects an increase in monsoon rainfall in eastern and central Nepal as compared to western Nepal. Further, the projections indicate an increase in monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall as well as an increase in the intensity of rainfall, and a decrease in winter precipitation. IPCC (2007) has projected that there will be a general increase in the intensity of heavy rainfall events in the future and an overall decrease by up to 15 days in the annual number of rainy days over a large part of South Asia. These facts and figures clearly indicate for an in-depth study to understand a more detail precipitation pattern in Nepal. Draft 2.5 River System The Himalaya region is known as the "third pole" or "Water Tower of Asia" as it has the most highly glaciated area in the world outside of the Polar Regions. It has huge stocks of water in the form of snow and ice, with a total area of 35,110 square km of glacier and ice cover, and a total ice reserve of 3,735 cubic km (Xu et al, 2007). There are 3,252 glaciers which cover a total area of 5,323 square kilometers in Nepal and supply melt waters to feed the extensive river network that covers the country (WWF, 2005). Nepal has more than 6,000 rivers, which provide a dense network of rivers with steep topographic conditions. The four major river systems namely, the Mahakali, Karnali, Narayani (Gandaki) and Saptakosi, all predate the uplift of the main Himalayan ranges and cut through the mountain ranges to form deep river valleys (Fig. 2). The other medium rivers originating from the Mahabharat range are Kankai, Kamala, Bagmati, West Rapti and Babai. The southern rivers rising from the Siwalik range have little water during dry season, but they cause flash floods during monsoon. Although the total average annual runoff from all these river systems is estimated at about 225 billion cubic meters (Bm3), only a small part of it (estimated at 15 Bm3) has so far been used for economic and social purposes (National Water Plan, 2005). The characteristics of rivers are determined by the geology of the terrain through which they flow; precipitation patterns affecting the river basins; and the slope of terrain they pass through. Due to these features, each river is likely to have unique features in the context of climate change and climate variability, and the river should be treated as a "unified whole" adopting water basin approach. Fig. 2 Major river basins of Nepal (WECS, 2006) Draft 2.6 Climate Change Impact on Water Resources Being the most dynamic and complex mountain system, the Himalaya is very sensitive to climate change. There are several evidences indicating that the climate change is gradually altering the ecological and socioeconomic landscape in the Himalayan region, particularly with respect to water. The hydrological processes, water demands, vegetation all are influenced by the climatic processes (Kaczmarek et al., 1996). Studies have shown that the climate change has become one of the critical reasons for building pressure in hydrological systems and water resources of the world (IPCC, 2001a). The most critical point to be considered while analyzing the impacts of the climate change particularly for Eastern Himalayan region is the cascading property of the impact along the altitudinal gradient caused due to the hydrological connectivity between higher elevations to lower elevations (Xu et al. 2009). Thus, any changes in terms of water availability (amount, duration, timing), intense events, monsoon precipitations (intensity and timing) will have their implications at the lower elevations. It highlights the importance of up stream down stream connectivity. The main impacts of climate change on water resources are briefly presented below. 2.6.1 Deglaciation With the rising in temperatures in the eastern Himalayas, the area covered by permafrost and glaciers are decreasing in larger part of the region. During the recent decade, a large number of glaciers in the Himalayas are observed to retreating at a higher rate compared to any other mountain glaciers in the world (Nakawo et al., 1997; Ageta et al., 2001). In general, glaciers are shrinking and valley glaciers are retreating in the Dudh Koshi sub-basin as reported by Bajracharya et al. (2007). They have further mentioned that the minimum retreat of glaciers was not less than 400m and the maximum was 2340m during 1960-2001. The average minimum glacier retreat rate was estimated to be 10m per year which was observed on the Langdak, W. Lhotse, and Setta glaciers. Out of the 2323 glaciers lakes inventoried, 330 lakes have expanded to area larger than 0.02 square kilometer and are further expanding in size due to glacier retreat (Bajracharya et al., 2005). Not limited to Nepal, the importance of glacier retreat can be evident in regional level as it has been estimated that Nepali river discharge, which also constitutes certain portion of glacial melt, contributes up to 70% of the dry season flow of the Ganges River (Alford, 1992). Another study has estimated that the annual average proportion of melt water in river flow is 13% for rivers flowing to the Ganges from Nepal. But, during March through May, the monthly average proportion of melt water is increased up to 30% (Chaulagain, 2006). Thus, it is very likely that any significant change in glacier mass (due to glacier retreat) can impact water resources at regional level. But in-depth research is still required to understand the extent of the impact of deglaciation on water resources in local, regional and trans-boundary level. Draft 2.6.2 River discharge fluctuation The rate and magnitude of temperature rise, along with changes in water availability from precipitation and runoff are critical factors which can affect Asia’s 7 most important rivers, which originate in the Himalayas (WWF, 2005). A runoff sensitivity analysis by Mirza and Dixit (1997) in the Ganges River showed that a 2ºC rise in temperature would cause a 4% decrease in runoff, while a 5ºC rise in temperature and 10% decrease in precipitation would cause a 41% decrease in the runoff. MOPE (2004) has indicated that river discharges in Nepal are more sensitive to precipitation change than to temperature change. A river discharge analysis conducted for the Koshi basin (for 1947-1994) has showed a decreasing trend particularly during the low-flow season (Sharma et al., 2000). However, in the case of Gandaki River basin (for 1964-2000), the river discharge has been found increased by about 1% annually (Shrestha, 2005). A preliminary analysis on river discharge has indicated that all the snow-fed rivers showed declining trends (Fig. 3) in discharge whereas the larger and southern rivers did not show any consistent and significant trend (WWF, 2005). Figure 3: Discharge data of snow-fed rivers (Data source: DHM, 1996) A research conducted to investigate the impact of climate change in the Brahmaputra and Koshi basins has indicated a significant increase in water yield and surface runoff (Gosain et al., 2010). The increases could be as high as 20 to 40% from the baseline and can be attributed to both increases in precipitation as well as in snowmelt. The predicted increase is significantly more in the Koshi basin than in the Brahmaputra basin. Furthermore, the predicted increases in water yield and surface runoff are much higher during the wet months and not so much or even absent in dry months, suggesting possible increases in flood frequency and magnitude. This problem is shown to be more prominent in the lower parts of the basins. Since the impact of climate change on river discharge may vary in each river basin, a comprehensive conclusion may not be possible to draw on the basis of existing literatures and publications only. Nevertheless, an urgent scenario has clearly been understood and research should be initiated to cover all the water basin so as to address the problem coherently. Draft 2.6.3 Groundwater depletion Kulshrestha (1996) stated that climate change impacts human behavior which may change the water supply demand balance in different parts of the world. IPCC (2001a) has estimated that temperature increase of 1.1ºC by 2025 would lead to an increase in average per capita domestic water demand by 5% in the UK. In long term, global warming may lead to water shortage for more than one billion people who depend upon melt water from the Himalayas by 2050 (Cruz et al., 2007). These situations will create pressure on groundwater which itself is at risk due to continuously reducing recharge opportunity due to drought of various kinds. There are two main groundwater systems in Nepal, the alluvial aquifers in the Terai and the river valleys of the mid-hills. The groundwater resources of the former are more significant, but the valley aquifers are vital for population centers such as Kathmandu. The overexploitation of groundwater in Kathmandu currently far outweighs any climate impact as extraction is greater than recharge by a ratio of 2 to 1 (Pandey et al., 2010). Nepal has been already experiencing water deficit, for various purposes, for four to five months outside the monsoon seasons and further warming may worsen the situation (ADB, 2010). The decline in natural recharge of the aquifers (due to drought, low precipitation, and intense localized precipitation) and over exploitation of groundwater, in some locations, have lead to rapid drop down in groundwater tables in many regions of the country. For example, in Narayani river region groundwater level has dropped down from 50 to 70 feet below ground level (in the Terai part), spring water is drying reducing discharge upto 90% during winter in hill regions (NCVST, 2009). Although the facts mentioned above requires further in-depth study to understand the extent at which the effect is due to over exploitation or due to global warming, it is indicative of an alarming situation which should be addressed soon. Since groundwater monitoring system has not been initiated, except a few cases, in Nepal, it is difficult to estimate the comprehensive impact of climate change on it explicitly. At the same time aquifer mapping and understanding their horizontal and vertical linkage is utmost important to estimate the status of groundwater and its future trend in the light of climate change scenario. 2.6.4 Wetland degradation The Himalayan wetlands are the natural reservoirs for surface and underground water. Several studies have also reported the degradation of wetlands due to climate change (Sharma et al. 2009). A recent study in Nepal by Chaulagain (2006) predicts that the total water availability in the country will increase from the present 176 km3/yr to 178 km3/yr in 2030, and then drop to 128 km3/yr by 2100 which would have significant consequences for wetlands at lower elevations and in the plains that depend largely on runoff from upstream areas. Rapidly filling up of the lake with debris from surrounding, sedimentation due to intense precipitation and flash floods, Draft increased rate of evaporation due to temperature rise and drought, land sliding and soil erosion, and over exploitation are some of the issues that have threaten the Himalayan wetlands (Bhandari, 200). Wetlands are located not only in Terai but also in Mountain and Himalayan regions. Because of inaccessibility, high altitude, and extreme climate information on Himalayan wetlands are very rare. The base line information on wetlands located in Terai and Mountain is also lacking. This is high time to start collecting base line data on wetlands of all kinds so as to make an action plan for their conservation. 2.6.5 Impact on hydropower Hydropower potential is highly sensitive to the rainfall amount, timing and pattern of rainfall and variation in temperature (IPCC, 2001b). Consequently, the impacts of climate change (such as wetter monsoon, drier low flow seasons, and decreased snow-to-rain ratio) on river runoff will affect the hydropower capacity of mountain rivers (Agrawala et al., 2003). Various impacts of climate change (GLOFs, stream flow variability, reduced low flow dependability, increased sediment loads from floods and strong precipitation events) affect Nepal’s hydroelectric potential which is predominantly significant as hydro contributes over 90% of Nepal’s electricity generation. The minimum flow period (early spring) or the periods when the flows are greatly dependent on melt water in most of rivers of Nepal will create problems to run-of-river hydroelectric plants (Kattelmann, 1993 and Shrestha et al., 2010). Nearly all of the hydropower plants existing in Nepal are run-of-river type, lacking storage dams, which tend to make them highly vulnerable to the stream flow variability, reducing the hydropower potential of the country (Agarawala et al., 2003). Hydropower and agriculture sectors are also given much importance in 25-Year Water Plan of Nepal which aims to increase hydropower to 22,000 MW and extend irrigation to 90% of irrigable lands (Sharma, 2003). Consequently, the future water availability scarcity in the face of changing climatic conditions can significantly impede to achieve such goals. The impact of climate change on water resources and hydropower is significant than any other sector for several reasons. First, a number of impacts on water resources and hydropower are directly related to rising temperatures that have already been observed, and are projected (with high confidence) to increase further over the coming decades. This includes glacier retreat that in turn causes greater variability (and eventual reduction) in stream flow, and glacial lake outburst floods that pose significant risk to hydropower facilities, and also to other infrastructure and human settlements. GLOFs are real threats to infrastructures as such events have already had significant impacts in Nepal; the most significant being the near total destruction of the newly built Namche Bazaar hydropower facility in 1985. Other climate induced risks to water resources and hydropower facilities include: flooding, landslides, and sedimentation from more intense precipitation events (particularly during the monsoon), as well as greater unreliability of dry season flows that poses potentially serious risks to water and energy supplies in the lean season. The significance of water resources to agriculture, and the significance of hydropower to the nation's electricity supply (a 92% share) further justify the high ranking (Table 3) for water Draft resources and hydropower. In addition, studying the impact of climate change in the Brahmaputra and Koshi basins, Gosain et al. (2010) has mentioned that under no land-use and/or land-cover change, climate-change scenarios are likely to result in 25 to 40% more sediment. This could mean serious management problems for hydropower project. Table 3: Priority ranking of climate change impacts for Nepal Resource/ranking Water Resources and Hydropower Agriculture Human Health Ecosystems/ Biodiversity Certainty of Impact High Timing of Impact High Severity of Impact High Importance of Resource High Medium-low Low Low Medium-low Medium Uncertain Medium Uncertain Uncertain High High Medium-high Source: (Agrawala et al., 2003) 3 Major Climate Change Issues As already discussed above, the expected impacts of climate change include water shortages in the dry season due to rapid glacial retreat, drying out of springs and depletion of groundwater, and increasing threats from glacial lake outburst floods. On the other hand, erratic rainfall during monsoon poses the threat of reduced groundwater reserves due to excessive surface runoff and increased water-induced hazards that include landslides, floods and erosion. These impacts would have serious implications particularly with regards to hydropower development, water resources management, and agriculture. The impacts would be most felt by the poor who live on a subsistence basis. It would also affect Nepal's unique biodiversity upon which much of its tourism relies and provides the basis for ecosystems services. The climate change outcome risk generally differs across ecologic units. With flood, drought, debris flows, vector and water borne diseases, forest fire and degradation of ecosystems being the major climate change outcome risks in the Terai-Churia Range. In the case of the Middle Mountain, landslides, drought / drying out of springs, prevalence of insect and diseases in agriculture are more significant. Rapid glacial melting, glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF), landslide, habitat shifting and deterioration, and ecosystem degradation constitute major climate change outcome risk in the High Mountain (SPCR, 2010). The most severe issues resulted due to the climate change impact on water resources can be broadly categorized as too little water (reduced water availability), too much water (waterinduced disaster), dirty water (water quality degradation) and data generation and sharing as briefly presented below. 3.1 Too Little Water (Reduced Water Availability) Draft The Terai region and valleys of the Mid-Mountain region are heavily populated and intensively cultivated. Generally, populations that have been displaced due to weather induced extreme events (floods, droughts) migrate to these valleys and Terai since these regions possess a huge amount of groundwater in addition to better infrastructure and economic prospects. This migration trend, along with haphazard urbanization, inadequate waste and pollution control, and unplanned increases in water use, has already resulted in reduced water availability. These impacts on water resources will progressively increase due to changes in the water cycle and water balance from climate change, ultimately affecting the availability of water for domestic and agricultural use in many areas. In Eastern Himalayas region, majority of the countries are dependent on the monsoon rain for their agricultural productivity and even a small modification in water availability can outcome large effect in national economy (Shrestha et al., 2010). The increase in temperature and water stress could lead to 30% decrease in crop yields in Central and South Asia by the mid-21st Century (UNDP, 2006). A field survey conducted during the SPCR preparation phase has revealed a fact that many springs in the mid-mountain area are drying out (discharge is gradually reducing) causing water scarcity for drinking and irrigation (SPCR, 2010). An another study has indicated that in response to increased water stress, in the Koshi River Basin farmers tend to adopt structural adaptation changes, such as using electric pumps, constructing canals and building ponds to irrigate their fields. The reports also indicates that, in terms of domestic water use perspective, alarmingly, water scarcity often results in people using less water for general hygiene and sanitation activities (Dixit et al., 2009). In fact, it is yet to know the efficient ways of coping the water scarcity in different water basin in relation to different climatic zones and different socio-economic statues of water users. 3.2 Too Much Water (Water-induced Hazard) The magnitude of snowmelt floods depend upon the volume of snow, snow melting rate and the amount of rain that falls during the melting period (IPCC, 1996). For the Himalayas, the peak melting season usually coincides with the summer monsoon season. As a result, any amplification of monsoon or stimulating melting would result increasing summer runoff which may contribute to enhance the risk of disasters (IPCC, 2001a). The various types of natural hazards in the Eastern Himalayas are due to the intense seasonal precipitation occurring during the summer monsoon (Shrestha, 2008). One of the major consequences of climate change is related to changes in magnitude, frequency and duration of the hydrologic extremes (Sharma and Shakya, 2005), which may cause the followings. 3.2.1 Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) The Eastern Himalayas consists of about 5389 glacial lakes covering 192 km 2 of area (Mool, 2007). GLOF can result due to sudden release of lake water, as a result of failure of the lake damming moraine caused due to internal instability or some external triggers (Shrestha, 2008). Draft The phenomenon of GLOF is not a new to the Himalayas as some of the examples of lake outburst particularly in Nepal and Bhutan has already been well-documented. The studies in the past has also revealed that the GLOF events are clustered around the eastern Himalayas in predominantly in countries like Nepal, Bhutan, and Tibet (Shrestha, 2008). Moreover, twenty five lakes in Bhutan and twenty one lakes in Nepal are identified as potential dangerous lake (six of which has been identified as critical which are to be investigated and prioritized (Ives et.al, 2010) for implementing hazard reduction measures. Fujita et al. (2001) has observed that the glaciers in Nepal are retreating at faster rate suggesting increase in GLOF frequency under climate change scenario. GLOFs events can further trigger various problems such as aggravating land degradation, increasing variations in the hydrological regime, degrading biodiversity and most importantly causing many socioeconomic externalities. Some of the trans-boundary type of GLOF events has also been evident in the Eastern Himalayan region. Nepal has experienced 10 GLOF events which actually originated in Tibet but their adverse impacts were felt in Nepal. For instance, the GLOF event of 1981 damaged the highway sections between Zhangzangbo Gully and the Sun Koshi Power Station in Nepal, destroyed the Friendship Bridge constructed over the Bhote Koshi river at the China–Nepal boarder along the highway and caused serious economic losses in Nepal amounting US $3 million) (Bajracharya et al., 2006). Discussing the possibility of occurring GLOFs of transboundary nature, Bajracharya et al. (2006) has mentioned that in last 25 years some of the glacial lakes in Poiqu basin in China (a trans-boundary basin joining with Sun Koshi- Bhote Koshi in Nepal) have expanded to almost double in size increasing the threat of GLOFs having destructive effects locally as well as in trans-boundary regions. 3.2.2 Floods and flash floods Milly et al. (2002) and Ouarda et al. (2006) through their investigation in stream flow trends in various basins of the world detected an increase in flood frequency and discharge due to high intensity rainfall events in the recent years. During the last decade (in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007) the countries like Bangladesh, Nepal and north east states of India have suffered from serious and recurrent floods (Shrestha et al., 2009). According to the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR), in 2008 seven out of the top ten natural disasters by number of deaths occurred in Afghanistan, China, India, Myanmar and Bangladesh. As China, India and Pakistan accounts for 99% of the total deaths, it indicates the vulnerability of the region to such events. Nepal is exposed to various types of hydro-meteorological disasters. Department of Water Induced Disaster Prevention (DWIDP, 2006) has reported that the destruction of infrastructure worth US $9 million and about 300 deaths annually is caused due to water induced hazards in Nepal. Various studies have reported that an increase in the frequency of high intensity rainfall often leads to extreme events such as flash floods and landslides (Chalise and Khanal, 2001). Many regions of the country has already faced severe problem of flooding, similar to the impacts Draft of climate change projected by several climatic models (NCVST, 2009) (Table 4). The climate change phenomenon will further intensify the existing scenario. In the last ten years more than 4,000 people died due to climate induced disasters causing an economic loss of US $ 5.34 billion (MoE, 2010). Further, Ministry of Home Affairs has stated that each year more than 1 million people are susceptible to climate induced disasters such as floods, landslides, and droughts. Events (date) Heavy precipitation in Kulekhani area, Central Nepal (1993) Breaching of Koshi embankment (2008) Flooding in FarWestern Nepal (2008) Table 4: Some significant flood events of Nepal Destructions Triggered destructive floods, causing damage to the extent of about 800 km2 affecting 69,000 families with 975 human deaths Severe precipitation (540 mm) Displaced 65,000 people in Nepal and about 3 million in Bihar killed about 6,190 people in Bihar -Mostly affected Kailali and Kanchanpur districts affecting total of 29,621 households. -Severe precipitation: 283 mm (in Kailali district) and 250 mm (in Kanchanpur district) in 24 hours Sources (Khanal, 2005) (NCVST, 2009) (NRCS, 2008) 3.2.3 Landslides and soil erosion Nepal is vulnerable for various types of natural hazards such as earthquake, flood, landslide and debris flows due to steep topography, on-going mountain building process, highly fractured rocks, diverse climate and intense precipitation. Climate change is likely to increase the incidents of these events except the earthquake which is mainly related to geological phenomena. The Risk Assessment undertaken during the SPCR planning process clearly indicated that the incidents of flood, landslide, cold wave, heat wave, thunderstorm and hailstorm have constantly increased during the last few decades (SPCR, 2010). The community consultation, during SPCR planning process, has also identified that landslide and flood have significantly damaged physical infrastructures, washed away sources of drinking water, cultivated land and forest resources. Due to steep mountain slope, fragile soils, marginal farming systems and inadequate knowledge and technology for soil and water management/conservation, the erosion of fertile soils from agricultural land is significantly high which accelerates the process of already diminishing rate of agricultural productivity. Since water and soil formation process are sensitive to climate change, any extent of change on climatic variables directly affects its performance. Extreme climatic events coupled with non-engineering practices of linear infrastructure (e.g. roads and irrigation cannel) construction have also accelerated the soil erosion and landslides in hill slopes. 3.3 Dirty Water (Water Quality Degradation) Draft The extreme climate events have created too much water which not only creates flooding but also degrade the drinking water sources converting them to dirty water. Similarly, the prolong drought may cause reduction of discharge, which in turn, again make the drinking water with unacceptable amount of sediments and chemical precipitation. Impacts on water quantity have been identified by the SPCR Thematic Working Groups as the principal risk from climate change which affects all three mountain regions. Community consultations undertaken at the district and community levels during the project planning process has confirmed this assessment (SPCR, 2010). Lack of base line data on water quality and inadequate number of real time water quality monitoring stations across the country have caused difficulties in evaluating the impact of climate change on the water quality. 3.4 Data Generation and Sharing According to a study (ADB, 2010), only limited quality control has been undertaken on the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology(DHM) station data. The station network deteriorates in remote areas, especially in the high mountains, where harsh conditions and challenging terrain make establishment of meteorological stations very difficult. The snow and glacier section of the DHM maintains 10 automatic weather stations in glacial valleys (elevations between 2500m and 4000m) but data from these stations are of poor quality, especially for precipitation, where snowfall and icing produce anomalous readings. The Flood Forecasting Section under the Hydrology Division of DHM is maintaining a network of 43 stations (15 hydrological and 28 precipitations) for the purpose of flood forecasting and warning. Some of these stations are equipped with wireless (SSB) communication facilities for once a day data transmission. Others have mobile (CDMA and GSM) phone facilities. Recently, DHM has installed 10 rainfall and three water level data loggers in the Narayani river basin with Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) wireless technology for high speed data transfer in real time. However, severe financial constraints preclude DHM from extending the range of real-time stations. DHM has been working to install a Telemetry System for Monitoring Water Availability and Allocation in Karnali, West Rapti and Babai river basins under the Irrigation( Integrated) and Water Resources Management (IWRMP) Project funded by the World Bank. The proposed telemetry facilities are expected to provide an efficient water use system minimizing the adverse impacts particularly during floods and low flows. The automated system will help to operate water resource projects, water reservoirs and water diversion schemes based on water availability and needs Currently, provision and dissemination of hydro-meteorological data and information is not at an adequate level in order to meet global, regional and national needs of the country. This is due to the fact that the technical, human and financial capacity of the national hydrological and meteorological services does not meet international standards and requirements, and the need and possibilities of improved hydro-meteorological services and associated early warning Draft systems have not been fully recognized by government, industry, agriculture and other socioeconomic sectors until recently (SPCR, 2010). 4 Adaptation Initiatives 4.1 National Capacity Self Assessment (NCSA) Using an inclusive consultative process, the National Capacity Self-Assessment (NCSA) project focused on identifying the priority issues for action and capacity needs within the thematic areas of biodiversity conservation, combating climate change, and combating land degradation. The project took stock and assessed the capacity development strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats to Nepal’s national implementation of the Rio conventions. It also discusses on the capacity development issues and priorities deemed key to achieving global environmental goals as well as national development priorities. Nepal completed the National Capacity Self Assessment (NCSA) with one of the objectives being to explore related capacity needs within and across the main thematic areas. NCSA also paid particular attention to those capacity constraints and opportunities that cut across the concerned international Conventions to which Nepal is a signatory (including the UNFCCC), as well as the synergies that can be created through harmonized and coordinated implementation of multilateral environmental agreements. The NCSA reveals: (a) the absence of observation stations to collect key meteorological data (spatial and temporal) needed for the establishment of early warning systems; and (b) the low level of capacity and funding for climate change risk management measures. 4.2 National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) As a foundation for receiving supports from international and bilateral agencies to combat against negative impact of climate change, the Government of Nepal has prepared its National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA). Initiated through a broad-based consultative process, NAPA process was geared-up by six Thematic Working Groups (TWGs), namely Agriculture and Food Security, Forests and Biodiversity, Water Resources and Energy, Climate Induced Disasters, Public Health, and Urban Settlements and Infrastructure. The work of the NAPATWGs resulted with a “long-list” of adaptation options, which were synthesized into nine immediate and urgent project profiles. The total cost to implement urgent and immediate adaptation measures is estimated to be US$ 350 million. The prioritized adaptation options include both urgent/immediate and long term adaptation strategies in key vulnerable sectors under the six TWGs 4.3 Pilot Project for Climate Resilience (PPCR) In order to help Nepal transform to a climate resilient development path, consistent with poverty reduction, food security and sustainable development goals, the Strategic Program for Climate Draft Resilient (SPCR), a preparatory phase of PPCR, builds upon government’s ongoing programs to address poverty and support’s the country’s long-term vision to achieve a climate resilient development by initiating five broad interventions as follows: (a) Building climate resilience of watersheds and water resources in mountain eco-regions; (b) Building resilience to climate related extreme events; (c) Mainstreaming climate change risk management in development; (d) Building climate resilient communities through private sector participation; and (e) Building climate resilience of endangered species. The proposed interventions will be implemented after establishing a comprehensive program of capacity building for climate change risk management at the systematic, institutional and individual levels, at the national, sectoral, district and local level, and within the public sector and civil society that will support the integration of climate change risk management into development planning. The SPCR proposal to be submitted by the Nepal Government to PPCR Sub-committee is underway. The total fund available to implement the interventions for Nepal is 110 Millions US$ consisting both grant and loan. 4.4 Adaptive Capacity Assessment The Risk Assessment and Adaptive Capacity Assessment undertaken during SPCR preparation has highlighted the fact that knowledge on climate change risk management in Nepal is inadequate and therefore the planning of development projects follows a "business as usual" path. There exists moderate knowledge on climate change risk in some ministries and departments, but such knowledge barely exists at the district and local levels. District officials are unfamiliar with tools such as screening for climate change risks or climate proofing. Technical training to government officials at the national level, district level and community levels, and allocation of financial resources to implement climate change risk management measures is urgently needed. Climate change risk management capacity is non-existent in the private sector. The national level adaptive capacity assessment undertaken during SPCR highlights the following: a) b) c) Almost complete absence of climate change risk management personnel in key organizations and institutions; Climate change risk management approach is not institutionalized in government, academia, civil society or in vulnerable sectors, municipalities, districts or communities; No training, database, information or guidelines exists on planning/constructing climate resilient development infrastructures; Draft d) There are insufficient financial resources to effectively integrate climate change risk management into development planning process in key sectors (water, agriculture, and forestry). 4.5 Water Resource Strategy and National Water Plan Water Resource Strategy (WRS, 2002) in Nepal has categorized ten strategic outputs into three main agendas namely, security (managing water induced disasters), use (adequate and sustainable supply) and mechanisms (information systems, legislative frameworks). Some of the outputs mentioned in WRS are relevant to climate change adaptation measures and are briefly listed below. i) Enhancing Water-Related Information Systems: To improve the country’s present situation of data unavailability or inconsistent results, WRS has plans to establish functional information collection and dissemination systems through extending and upgrading the hydro-meteorological network. ii) Strengthening of hydrological, meteorological network in monitoring and research activities. For the purpose, Himalayan Climate Change Study Centre will be established as per the National Water Plan 2005. iii) Identification of potential disaster zones on district maps and making available emergency relief materials for all five development regions. iv) Designing infrastructure for mitigating predictable disasters and installing functional early warning systems in at least 20 most vulnerable districts until 2017. v) Anticipates finding effective mechanism to facilitate bilateral agreements for equitable water sharing (Indo- Nepal cooperatives initiatives: Sapta Koshi high dam).( we still do not know the modality of development of the Project, this point should be removed) vi) Developing cost-effective micro-hydropower projects to meet domestic demand, promoting private investment in power distribution and accelerating rural electrification. It has set the target to develop 2035 MW hydropower to meet projected demand by 2017. vii) Emphasizes on sharing of water resource benefits among the co-riparian countries in an equitable level??? for mutual benefit. ( The relevancy of the bullet is not clear). 4.6 Institutional set-up, programs and policy formulation The Government of Nepal has constituted the Climate Change Council (CCC) under the chairmanship of Right Honorable Prime Minister on 23 July 2009. The Council, a high level coordinating body, has been established, amongst other responsibilities, to Provide coordination, guidance and direction for the formulation and implementation of climate change-related policies. The current Three-Year Interim Plan (2010-2013) and the Sustainable Development Agenda of Nepal (SDAN) outline a project implementation approach that made the Ministry of Environment (MoE) responsible for coordinating all activities related to environment Draft conservation and climate change. The government has formed the Multi-Stakeholder Climate Change Initiatives Coordination Committee (MCCICC) in April 2010 under the chairmanship of the Secretary of MoE. The Committee aims to foster an unified and coordinated climate change response in Nepal. It institutionalizes the multi-stakeholder and participatory process adopted in the formulation of the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) and Nepal’s Strategic Program for Climate Resilience (SPCR), and consolidates the strengths of the six multi-sectoral TWGs constituted to formulate the NAPA and the SPCR. Being the focal ministry for climate change and environmental issues, the MoE has recently established the Climate Change Management Division which is responsible for overall coordination among stakeholders, development partners and provide policy guidelines to implement climate change related interventions. The Three-Year Interim Plan (2010-2013) has a strategy of continuing disaster risk reduction and poverty environment initiatives as a means of promoting climate change adaptation and sustainable natural resource management. It has also adopted a working strategy of formulating climate resilience friendly plan to implement the NAPA priority projects. It also envisions developing and implementing Early Warning System (EWS) to protect communities and infrastructures from glacial lake outburst floods, floods and other natural hazards including negative impact of climate change which are priority interventions under the SPCR. The Three Year Interim Plan (2007-2010) had set the target of supplying basic drinking water service to 85% and sanitation to 60% of total population, strengthen collaborative works (government, private sector) for disaster relief and emphasize on pre-disaster preparedness (identifying /mapping high risk areas). It also promoted projects for irrigation and water resources management such as non-conventional irrigation technology, community managed irrigation, shallow and deep tube well and groundwater irrigation. It also aimed to complete the construction of ongoing hydropower projects (adding 105 MW), and also initiating construction of new projects for additional 2,115 MW. The river basin approach was also considered as the basis for development and management of water resources. The National Planning Commission (NPC) has recently completed Nepal’s Climate Resilient Three Year National Development Plan. A climate resilient planning method has been proposed which begins with screening of development plans to determine the extent to which a project might be affected by climate related impacts, and to identify adaptation options to reduce resulting adverse impacts. Government has recently endorsed Climate Change Policy which states that 80 % of the total budget of the donor-funded climate change related projects should be spent to implement interventions at community level whereas the remaining 20 % may be used for institutional capacity building and other purposes at national level. Draft 5 Gap Identification Nepal's Initial National Communication to the UNFCCC (2004) and National Capacity SelfAssessment (2008) has highlighted some key problems as inadequate financial, technological and human resources in relation to implementing adaptation activities. Additionally, the Adaptive Capacity Assessment undertaken during SPCR preparation has also identified a number of key gaps in national capacity (SPCR, 2010). In a broader sense, data availability and access, inadequate scientific understanding, lack of awareness, poor institutional mechanism, poor integration of existing knowledge and practices and lack of integrated management approach are some of the major gaps or constraints to handle the priority issues in relation to fresh water of the Himalaya (ICIMOD, 2010). The followings summarize the major gaps in addressing water issues in Nepal. 5.1 Lack of Data Availability and Access The available hydro-meteorological data are not sufficient enough to make prediction on likely climate change and its impact on water resources. Besides, the hydro-meteorological stations are sparsely distributed which can not capture the situation of local climate variability. Similarly, the numbers of real-time monitoring stations are also not enough to capture the temporal variation of extreme events through out the country. Further, snow fall gauging stations are also lacking to make an estimate of changing pattern of snow falling in the Himalayan range. Only a few data on glacier movement and glacial lake extension are available but nationwide assessment and monitoring of glacial process including frequency of GLOF events are yet to be initiated. A research based status of glacier melt water, surface water, groundwater including spring water are not available. Data on rate of evaporation, evapo-transpiration and infiltration in each ecological zone corresponding to major river basins are also not available particularly in the context of rise in temperature. There may be some project specific data along with research reports, but these documents are, generally, not made available in public domain. 5.2 Inadequate Scientific Understanding Until now the state of climate change and its impact is analyzed based on global dataset as the regional dataset is not available currently. Unlike temperature, precipitation doesn't show long term trends making difficult for predicting climate induced disasters. Available climate models are to be improved to make them efficient in quantifying any processes of climate change related issues. Effectiveness of water conservation approaches giving due consideration to evapotranspiration, evaporation and infiltration water need to be validated generating scientific data to address water scarcity issues. A scientific understanding on the changing pattern of frequency, magnitude and recurrence interval of extreme events (erratic rainfall, floods, GLOFs) has still not been achieved so as to make comprehensive evaluation of the climate change scenario. Comment [SD2]: Suggested to reframe as the gap, rather than recommendation. Draft 5.3 Inadequate Policies, Plans and Strategies There exist national policies, plans and strategies to address water related issues but their effective implementation is yet to be started in many of the cases. For example, National Water Plan has envisioned establishing the Himalayan Climate Centre which, however, has not been materialized yet. Besides, the existing plans and policies do not recognize the impact of climate change as a threat that could affect the successful delivery of such policies, plans and strategies. This point may be highlighted considering the case of the Hydropower Development Policy, which emphasizes hydropower as an alternative to biomass /fossil fuel but does not reflect on impacts of climate change on hydropower. Similarly, the inter-linkage of sectoral policies and plans are yet to be appreciated to minimize the overlapping authority which is one of the factors for mismanagement of the available resources. There are also some ambiguities in conducting statutory mandate in some acts. For instance, the disaster relief committees formed under Natural Calamity Relief Act carry out relief activities only after disasters. The Committee rarely involves in disaster risk reduction activities which plays crucial role in saving lives and protecting infrastructures. Lacking of national polices on mechanism for sharing water resources or water benefits in river basin area (expect for hydropower royalty sharing) has also been felt necessary. Statutory obligations set up by various acts are also often violated and the convict rarely receive any punish. For example, water supplier has a duty to maintain drinking water quality with standard set by Water Resource Act but in practice this has rarely happened. A policy adhering to the principles of Integrated Water Resources Management considering the climate change effects is felt necessary. needs to be formulated for highland-lowland linkages and payment for environmental services which will help promote integrated water resource management with basin approach. 5.4 Poor Institutional Capacity and Mechanism The Government of Nepal has created a number of institutions as advisory bodies, policy making bodies (ministries), implementing departments and centers, research institutions, and training institutions with specific roles and responsibilities. The lack of institutional capacity ( in terms of human, technological, and financial resources) in these organizations for climate change risk management and poor coordination (horizontal as well as vertical) amongst the concerned agencies are some of the main constrains to integrate climate change risks management into the development planning at the national, sectoral, district, and village levels. Realizing this fact, SPCR (2010) has proposed to designate a Climate Change Risk Management Officer in key government agencies along with a package of countrywide capacity development programs. 5.5 Poor Integration of Existing Knowledge and Practices The conventional adaptation strategies used by the communities can help them to cope with some of the climate risks (Twomlow et al., 2008). But such traditional strategies alone are not always adequate to cope with uncertain risk contributed by climate change (Nelson et al., 2007). In Nepal also, it has been observed that traditional knowledge/strategies are not adequate to Comment [SD3]: Suggested to reframe as the gap rather than recommendation. Comment [SD4]: Suggested for reframing and moved in the activity below heading No. 6 Strategies and Programs Draft predict and cope with the increasingly variable and erratic patterns of rainfall and other weather phenomena of the country. Thus, a balance between traditional knowledge/potential and scientific knowledge and techniques is needed to design effective community adaptation strategies (World Bank, 2009). The traditional knowledge and local technologies which were being used by local people for centuries need to be recorded as "good practice examples", tested and modified, if needed, so as to make the techniques and practices more versatile in the context of climate change adaptation. New technology developed somewhere else may not always yield good result owing to the diverse ground reality. But the integration of good practice examples into the newly introduced technology may lead to a successful adaptation plan as local people feel ownership on such techniques 5.6 Lack of Integrated Management Approach A single extreme event (e.g. flood) may cause damage to infrastructures belonging to different sectors (for example, water supply infrastructures, road alignment and agricultural land all located in an area). It requires integrated management approach to deal with such situation but in practice the concerned authorities act independently at different time with different approach to combat the extreme event. Consequently, satisfactory results are not achieved and resources are ineffectively used. Integrated management approach should be promoted to implement and monitor adaptation actions to have a successful project completion. 5.7 Lack of Early Warning System Early warning system is a part of the disaster risk reduction. It helps saving lives and protecting infrastructures if the early warning system is in place with all the required specification intact. But the risk mitigation measures and early warning systems are limited to a handful of cases and mechanism for trans-boundary risk management and early warning system is non-existent currently. Early information on possible drought, flood, pests and dieses and arrival and departure of monsoon would greatly help to adapt the impact of climate change in national and sectoral level. 5.8 Exclusion of Livelihood Aspect Development projects are generally designed giving due consideration to technical and economic aspects also performing cost and benefit analysis( public projects generally use economic benefit rather than financial analysis). However, there has not been a trend of analyzing the possibility of providing livelihood opportunities to local public through development projects( please be specific). In fact, people take ownership of the project if it provides livelihood options such as income source diversification scheme, crop diversification options, micro-insurance and micro-finance. Climate change adaptation actions embedding appropriate livelihood options would help achieve the goal significantly. Comment [SD5]: Suggested to reframe as gap and move these to the appropriate heading under 6 Strategies and Activities (given in track change mode) Comment [SD6]: This suggestion can be reframed as activity under 6. Draft 5.9 Lack of Awareness Climate change is an entirely new issue and there has not been enough knowledge to manage climate change issues in national, regional, district and local level (SPCR, 2010). Lack of awareness is a barrier for technology transfer and it has compelled concerned personnel to adopt "business as usual" path in development projects despite the fact that there do exist technology to adapt climate change impact in several cases. Thus, awareness program is also equally important to convince decision makers and general public about the recommended techniques and guidelines available to minimize the impact of climate change. As most public junior officials are unfamiliar with tools such as climate proofing, screening etc., awareness training to government officials and progressive farmers at the district level and community levels would help to implement climate change adaptation actions successfully. 6 Strategies and Actions The above mentioned various gaps in terms of planning, policy, strategy framing and implementation for conserving water resources of Nepal suggest that some future strategies are to be designed and implemented which provide opportunities as well as effective solution or adaptation mechanism particularly taking into consideration the uncertainties regarding both the magnitude and timing of many climate change impacts. Comment [SD7]: The report basically deals in the national context, however, the regional summit is expected to prepare regional roadmap. Therefore, the strategies and actions are reframed (track change mode) below, considering the national roadmap. These are equally valid in the regional perspective. Gaps identified in 5 forms the basis of designing these strategies and actions and this also maintains the consistency of the report. Adaptation measures for Nepal should primarily ensure accessibility of acceptable quantity and quality of water for health, livelihoods and production of agricultural enterprises. Basin wide approach in major river basins (Karnali, Narayani, Kosi, Bagmati, Kankai, Rapti, Mahakali) as suggested in National Water Plan (2005) should be considered for the appropriate water resources management in Nepal. Also, the benefit sharing mechanism should be promoted through basin-wide planning (focused on sharing the benefits of water use/non-use, instead of dividing the water itself) considering both sustainability and equity (Sadoff, 2008). There is also a need of decision support system for river basin planning and management which requires management and funding for hydro-meteorological networks. NAPA (2010) has also highlighted for the efficient and multipurpose use of water resources, conservation of watershed and expanding and advancing of hydrological-meteorological stations as urgent and immediate adaptation priorities. Considering the identified gapspoints mentioned above and taking into account of the underlying concepts laid down in NAPA (2010) documents and National Water Plan (2005), The following strategies and activities are suggested to address the climate change effect and enabling adaptation to the climate change in Himalayan fresh water. the following interventions are proposed as adaptation program and projects. i. Enhance data base acquisition and Provide access to the data Formatted: Indent: Left: 0", Hanging: 0.25", Numbered + Level: 3 + Numbering Style: i, ii, iii, … + Start at: 1 + Alignment: Left + Aligned at: 1.38" + Indent at: 1.88", Tab stops: Not at 2.38" Draft Activities: - Need assessment of the data measuring stations - Install, upgrade and expand the stations and other physical facilities - Ensure real time and regular data collection - Design Information system and establish data sharing mechanism within the country and in the region Formatted: Indent: Left: 0.25", Tab stops: Not at 0.5" + 2.38" Formatted: Indent: Left: 0.25", Bulleted + Level: 4 + Aligned at: 1.75" + Indent at: 2", Tab stops: Not at 2.38" Formatted: Tab stops: Not at 0.5" + 2.38" ii. Conduct Scientific research and study Activities: - Design the climatic model to suit the national geo-physical and climatic phemenon to enable more accurate forecast. - Identify vulnerabilities such as 'too much water', 'too little water', 'Dirty Water', GLOF, water induced disaster, aquatic life and ecosystem etc. - Determine planned adaption associated with the identified vulnerabilities. - Identify the best practices and examine its replicability with or without modification. - Sharing of scientific knowledge and experience at national and regional level to assist study and research. iii. Formulation of Policies, Plan and Strategies Activities: - Design the policy, plan and strategies for anticipatory, autonomous and planned adaptation as suggested by research and studies. - Review/refine policies, plan and strategies periodically or as required in case of extreme events. iv. Establish/Strengthen appropriate institution Activities: - Establish 'Himalayan Climate Change Center' as identified by the Water Resources Strategy Nepal 2002, to undertake scientific study and research. - Establish a focal institution at the government level to facilitate communication, sharing of information, knowledge, experience and ensure integrated management approach. - Provide mandate to the related existing institutions to implement, monitor and evaluate the climate change adaptation. Formatted: Indent: Left: 0", Hanging: 0.25", Numbered + Level: 3 + Numbering Style: i, ii, iii, … + Start at: 1 + Alignment: Left + Aligned at: 1.38" + Indent at: 1.88", Tab stops: Not at 2.38" Formatted: Indent: Left: 0.25", Tab stops: Not at 0.5" + 2.38" Formatted: Indent: Left: 0.25", Hanging: 0.25", Tab stops: Not at 0.5" + 2.38" Formatted: Tab stops: Not at 0.5" + 2.38" Formatted: Indent: Left: 0", Hanging: 0.25", Numbered + Level: 3 + Numbering Style: i, ii, iii, … + Start at: 1 + Alignment: Left + Aligned at: 1.38" + Indent at: 1.88", Tab stops: Not at 2.38" Formatted: Indent: Left: 0.25", Tab stops: Not at 0.5" + 2.38" Formatted: Indent: Left: 0.25", Bulleted + Level: 4 + Aligned at: 1.75" + Indent at: 2", Tab stops: Not at 2.38" Formatted: Tab stops: Not at 0.5" + 2.38" Formatted: Indent: Left: 0", Hanging: 0.25", Numbered + Level: 3 + Numbering Style: i, ii, iii, … + Start at: 1 + Alignment: Left + Aligned at: 1.38" + Indent at: 1.88", Tab stops: Not at 2.38" Formatted: Indent: Left: 0.25", Tab stops: Not at 0.5" + 2.38" Formatted: Indent: Left: 0.25", Bulleted + Level: 4 + Aligned at: 1.75" + Indent at: 2", Tab stops: Not at 2.38" Formatted: Tab stops: Not at 0.5" + 2.38" v. Capacity Building Activities: - Need assessment of existing institutions engaged in securing freshwater system in terms of human, technological and financial resources. - Capacity development support to existing and new institutions. Formatted: Indent: Left: 0", Hanging: 0.25", Numbered + Level: 3 + Numbering Style: i, ii, iii, … + Start at: 1 + Alignment: Left + Aligned at: 1.38" + Indent at: 1.88", Tab stops: Not at 2.38" Formatted: Indent: Left: 0.25", Tab stops: Not at 0.5" + 2.38" Formatted: Indent: Left: 0.25", Bulleted + Level: 4 + Aligned at: 1.75" + Indent at: 2", Tab stops: Not at 2.38" Draft - Create awareness and empower the vulnerable communities at all level (National, local etc) Table 5: Major proposed strategies to secure fresh water in the Nepal Himalaya Priority Issue: 1) Too Little Water (Reduced Water Availability) Proposed Strategy Empowering Vulnerable Communities through Sustainable Management of Water Resource ( “sustainable management”-the terminology requires definition.) Conservation of Wetland Resources Priority Issue: 2) Too Much Water (Water-induced Hazard) Proposed Strategy Glacier Lake Monitoring and GLOF Risk Reduction (Trans-boundary issues) Flood Disaster Risk Reduction (Trans-boundary issues) Priority Issue: 3) Dirty Water (Water Quality Degradation ) Proposed Strategy Basin-wide Water Quality Monitoring Managing Aquatic Ecosystems Strategy 1: Glacier Lake Monitoring and GLOF Risk Reduction Project Rationale In Nepal, temperature rise resulting in glacier melt has already been evident and the weak natural dams can further increase the risk of GLOF events. Nepal has already experienced a number of GLOF events in the past. If immediate mitigation and risk reduction activities for reducing such disasters are not developed, the country will definitely suffer more from these events. Project Title: Glacier Lake Monitoring and GLOF Risk Reduction Activity Components: Glacier lake monitoring Early warning system development in disaster prone areas Interlink climate change with DRR and enhancement of institutional capacity at different levels Hazard mapping/disaster impact assessment and preparedness/ contingency plan development Management of existing hydrological and meteorological network at the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) and up scaling the services Collaborative research with neighboring countries to monitor glacial lakes and implement early warning system for GLOF related events. Research and development of base line data Estimated total cost: USD 55 million Project Description Project Activities Project Outcomes Short-term Long-term Implementation Draft Goal Contribute to the reduction of GLOF risk due to climate change and enhance the sustainability of environmental services from the Himalayas. Objectives 1. Monitoring of critical glacial lakes 2. Identify GLOFvulnerable communities and work with them to reduce risk 3. Provide alternative livelihoods to GLOF-vulnerable communities 4. Develop climate proof infrastructure and support services in GLOF sensitive areas 5. Reduce the chances of loss of lives and properties due to GLOF 1. Monitoring of the potential glacial lakes (emphasis on the six major GLOF potential lakes) 2. Implementation of structural measures for the GLOF reduction 3. Disaster risk reduction activities (establishment of early warning systems, forecasting and preparedness in downstream communities) 4. Support alternative livelihoods of GLOF-vulnerable communities (agriculture and forest based livelihood, alternative energy) Outputs (2011-2015) outputs (2016-2021) 1. Hazard/risk mapping of the GLOF potential areas Downstream communities recognize less adverse impacts from the GLOFs due to rising temperature 2. Information about the state of the GLOF potential lakes 3. Involvement of downstream communities in disaster preparedness and risk reduction activities Implementing Agency: Relevant line ministries along with implementing partners Estimated total: cost: USD 55 million Risks and Barriers: Delayed implementation due to the country’s situation and funding Monitoring and Evaluation: Works will be evaluated by the experts from line ministries and implementing partners. Strategy 2: Empowering Vulnerable Communities through Sustainable Management of Water Resource Project Rationale Nepal has been already facing water scarcity due to changes in climatic trends. Adaptation activities designed early will not only be cost effective but also provide opportunity to increase adaptive capacity of the local communities through efficient water and energy supply. This includes investment in efficient water resource management and clean and low carbon energy technologies. Water resources and energy supply systems need to be adapted to cope with both too much and too little water in all seasons. Objective Formatted: Underline Draft This project aims to ensure enough quantity and satisfactory quality of water for all purposes to community people Project Title: Empowering Vulnerable Communities through Sustainable Management of Water Resource Activity Components: Conservation of lakes supplying water and ecological services to urban areas Promotion of rain water harvesting structures and technologies (fog/ mist harvesting as a water harvesting option) Water supply source conservation (quality as well as quantity) and strengthening programs of existing projects affected by source reduction Development of nationwide urban groundwater monitoring system and enhancement of regulatory measures Establishment and improvement of micro-hydropower projects being affected by the acute water shortages ( plz be specific) Improved Water Mills for Multi Use Development of Non-Conventional Irrigation Technology Community Managed Irrigated Agriculture Sector Estimated total cost: USD 40 million Formatted: Underline Project Description Activities 1. 1. Conservation of lakes supplying water and ecological services to urban areas 2. Water supply source conservation and strengthening programs of existing projects affected by source reduction 3. Piloting rain water harvesting structures (fog/mist harvesting) 4. Cost benefit analysis and economic appraisal of existing innovative water schemes and practices 5. Development of nationwide urban groundwater monitoring system and enactment of regulatory measures 6. Establish and improvement micro-hydropower projects being affected by the acute water shortages 7. Improve water mills for multiuse 8. Develop non-conventional irrigation technology 9. Develop community managed irrigation 10. Facilitate the implementation of local adaptation plans for efficient water management 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Inputs Assess the status of important lakes Develop adaptive management methods for lake and water sources management Develop and promote appropriate water harvesting methods and investments in infrastructure Identify and install the most appropriate urban groundwater monitoring system Assess and amend the regulatory framework for groundwater management Appraise water shortages effects on micro-hydro and water mill schemes Develop drip, sprinkler and runoff harvesting ponds, to meet the demands of small and marginal farmers Rehabilitate and improve farmer managed Irrigation Systems Develop and carry out climate proofing of micro-hydro plants and water mills Project Outcomes Short-term Long-term outputs Outputs (2011-2015) (2016-2021) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Urban water sources adaptive plans (lake conservation) developed and implemented Appropriate water harvesting techniques promoted Pilot urban groundwater monitoring systems for key urban centers Recommendations for regulatory framework amendments to improve management of water resources and supply systems Farmer managed Irrigation Systems rehabilitated and improved Non conventional irrigation technology developed Methods for climate proof micro-hydro plants and water mills developed and tested 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 7. Urban water sources managed to overcome climate change challenges Key lakes conserved Widespread adoption of water harvesting techniques Urban groundwater information used for improved adaptive management Regulatory framework for water resources management and supply amended Climate proof micro-hydro plants and water mills promoted Non conventional irrigation technology implemented Sustainable clean energy and low carbon investments at national level achieved Draft Implementation Institutional arrangements: Leadership by Department of Drinking Water and Sanitation in collaboration with Ministry of Energy, private sector water professionals involved, Private sector to offer climate proof water harvesting, micro-hydro and water mills technologies Water Users Groups involved in promoting technology adoption Estimated total cost: USD 40 million Risks and barriers Inadequate climate change projection to assess climate effects on water sources. Mainstreaming climate change adaptation into key regulatory and provision organizations difficult. High costs of climate proofing micro-hydro and Formatted: Underline water mills. Reluctance to adopt water harvesting technologies. Monitoring and evaluation Baseline development of water source status, functionality of micro-hydro plants and water mills, and water harvesting technology use Monitoring through assessment of the effectiveness of adaptive management of waste sources and functionality of micro-hydro plants and water mills, and water harvesting technology use Evaluation by independent evaluators commissioned by Ministry for Energy Draft Strategy 3: Managing of Aquatic Ecosystems in Major River Basin Project Rationale Adaptation activities designed should also consider developing appropriate environmental action plan for watersheds management as well as the aquatic ecosystems conservation. The mismanagement and over-exploitation of natural resources has been deteriorating the condition of watersheds and aquatic ecosystems. Likewise, aquatic resources are also threatened as a result of encroachment, periodic flash floods, pesticides and chemical pollution, landslides and erosion, water pollution and deforestation. The construction of dams has also affected the normal aquatic life. The declining aquatic drying of wetland and declining aquatic diversity are the major threats to the aquatic ecosystem. Objectives This project aims to ensure adequate water quantity and quality for aquatic ecosystems and also reduce the environmental impacts to aquatic ecosystems Project Title: Developing Proper Action Plan for Management of Aquatic Ecosystems Activity Components: Improve Environmental Database System Map Climatically Sensitive Watersheds and Aquatic Ecosystems Develop Water and Wastewater Quality Standards and Regulations Implement Climate Change Adaptation/ Water Conservation/ Education/Awareness Program Implement climatically sensitive Watersheds and Aquatic Ecosystems Protection, Rehabilitation and Management Programs Promote Community Participation in the Management of Watersheds and Aquatic Ecosystems to enhance climate change adaptation Enhance Institutional Capacity and Coordination Develop Watershed Management Policy Estimated total cost: USD 30 Millions Project Activities Mapping of climatically sensitive and priority watersheds and aquatic ecosystems Piloting management plan for watershed and aquatic system Framing water and wastewater quality standards and regulations Project Outcomes Short-term Long-term outputs Outputs (2011-2015) (2016-2021) National institutions Satisfactory water for watershed management and quality for aquatic ecosystem protection habitats, insured in strengthened all rivers and lakes Environmental Watersheds and database system for aquatic monitoring and ecosystems made protecting the sustainable situation of aquatic Basin-wide scale Implementation Institutional arrangements: Leadership by Department of Wildlife and National Parks (DWNP) and Department of Soil Conservation and Draft Developing and implementing programs for protection, management and rehabilitation of priority watersheds and aquatic ecosystems Developing and implementing programs for community awareness, facilitation and participation in the management of watersheds and aquatic ecosystems Increasing fund for programs to enhance wetlands and aquatic ecosystems Establishing coordination committees to integrate watershed and aquatic ecosystem management program and water-based infrastructure development projects Developing appropriate watershed management policy to control and protect aquatic ecosystems ecosystem improved Reducing environmental impacts to watersheds and aquatic ecosystems Community participation in protection of the aquatic ecosystems promoted, facilitated and monitored Strategic environmental assessment utilized in water resources management Management plan for pilot watershed and aquatic system prepared and initiated watershed management and aquatic ecosystem activities implemented Identification and evaluation of options and alternatives for mitigating and preventing environmental impacts to watersheds and aquatic ecosystems Ecosystem approach for watershed management( considering both direct and indirect biophysical and social effects) adopted Watershed Management (DSCWM) Other relevant ministries (Ministry of Local Development (MoLD), Ministry of Physical planning and Works (MOPPW))along with implementing partners Estimated total cost: USD 30 Million Risks and Barriers: Delayed implementation due to the country’s situation and funding. Monitoring and evaluation: works will be evaluated by the experts from line ministries and implementing partners (National Water Resources Quality and Tariff Regulatory Agency) Strategy 4: Effective Water quality Monitoring in Major River Basins Project Title: Developing Proper Action Plan for Effective Water Quality Monitoring Activity Components: Preparation of water quality database of each major water sources (basin-wide approach) Protection of water resources Implement proper water safety measures Enhance capacity building programs Implement water conservation/ public awareness programs Develop and implement techniques for water quality security Develop and implement efficient water use systems Estimated total cost: USD 20 Million Draft Project Rationale Decline in water availability usually results in decline in water quality (sanitation level). The shortage of water is very prevalent in Nepal. It has been estimated that only 34% of the population in Nepal has access to safe drinking water (Nepal Net, 2001). This compels people to compromise with available water at the cost of its quality and subsequently with health implications. The major river systems of Nepal are tapped at source for different water supplies purposes (particularly for drinking) however with no frequent water quality or quantity monitoring (Sharma et al., 2005). Thus, the development of appropriate strategic planning and remedial action for water quality improvements is required. An effective water quality monitoring and surveillance program to ensure a safe and sustainable water supply system in Nepal should be developed. Objectives This project aims to monitor and ensure satisfactory water quality for each water sources. Project Activities Monitoring the water quality characteristics (river, runoff, groundwater, rainwater, public water supply systems) Framing of water quality criteria and standards Piloting management plan for all water systems Developing procedures for protection of water resources (handling of wastes/effluents, runoff from agriculture) Developing procedures for efficient water use Implementing measures for providing adequate safe water to people. Enhancing capacity building programs Promoting public awareness Programs Implementing techniques for water quality security Project Outcomes Short-term Long-term Outputs (2011-2015) outputs (2016-2021) Treatment of human Water wastes and industrial quality effluents before they are criteria and discharged into natural standard water resources developed developed WHO Management of run-off guidelines from agriculture initiated adopted for water safety System of incentives and disincentives adopted Satisfactory and encouraged for water efficient water use. quality for public water Effective Communitysupply level methods designed insured for for providing safe water. all sources. Facilities to educate and Satisfactory train personnel in water water management skills quality data developed. generated Mechanism of Water laboratory inspection security and accreditation achieved by developed for ensuring harvesting the quality of data of rainwater generated. and Rainwater harvesting recycling of and recycling of municipal municipal waste water Implementation Institutional arrangements: Relevant line ministries along with implementing partners (such as Department of Water Supply and Sanitation) Estimated Cost: USD 20 Million Risks and Barriers: Delayed implementation due to the country’s situation and funding Monitoring and Evaluation: Works will be evaluated by the experts from line ministries and implementing partners. (Water Supply and Sewerage Regulatory Agency, Water Supply Tariff Fixation Draft promoted waste water Committee) Strategy 5: Water Induced Disaster Risk Reduction project Title: Water Induced Disaster Risk Reduction in Vulnerable Water Basin Activity Components: Monitoring for flood, flash flood and landslide in potential disasters areas Identify vulnerable communities and work with them to reduce risk Emphasizing on pre-disaster preparedness Provide alternative livelihoods to vulnerable communities Designing of climate proofing of infrastructure in sensitive areas( plz be specific about the activity. What we should understand from the phrase”Designing of climate proofing of Infrastructure”) Strengthening collaborative works for disaster relief activities Building robust weather and climatic forecasts technology Implementing functional early warning system Estimated total cost: USD 30 Million Project Rationale The water induced disasters events such as soil erosion, landslides, flood, flash flood, debris flow and bank erosion not only claim the lives of the people but they also induce severe damages on the vital infrastructures (roads, bridges, houses, hydropower, irrigation and drinking water facilities, agricultural lands, properties). Such events pose great threat to the economy and sustainable development of the nation. The poor people are the most vulnerable groups. There still exists insufficient knowledge on disaster management, inadequate physical infrastructure, poor forecasting facilities and unplanned settlement which further triggers the problem. Also, the water related hazards planning and management should go beyond GLOF and address downstream hazards like sedimentation, bank erosion etc. Objective This project aims to contribute reducing water induced disaster risk in vulnerable communities Project Activities Mapping of disaster prone areas in all regions Monitoring of the potential disasters zones in all regions Project Outcomes Short-term Long-term Outputs outputs (2011-2015) (2016-2021) Disaster prone Hydrological areas identified and and mapped. meteorological network Advance upgraded and technology for strengthened Implementation Implementing Agency: Relevant line ministries along with implementing partners [DHM, Department of Local Infrastructure Development and Agriculture Roads Draft Providing the alternative livelihood options to vulnerable communities Establishment of community based early warning systems for downstream communities Implementation of structural measures for disaster reduction Building robust weather and climatic forecasts technology (develop hydrological models) Management of existing hydrological and meteorological network and also upgrading the services weather and climatic forecasting developed Hydrological models implemented Downstream communities involved in disaster preparedness and risk reduction activities (DOLIDAR), the Minimum adverse impacts to downstream communities Department of Water Induced Disaster Prevention ) Reducing the social and economic losses to levels as experienced in developed countries Estimated Cost: USD 30 Millions Risks and Barriers: Delayed implementation due to the country’s situation and funding Monitoring and Evaluation: Works will be evaluated by the experts from line ministries and implementing partners Strategy 6: Conservation of Wetland Resources Project Title: Conserving Major Wetland Resources Across the Country Activity Components: Preparation of national inventory of wetlands Integration of wetland biodiversity conservation values into national policy and planning Enhance capacity building programs on wetland ecosystem management Implement public awareness programs on sustainable use of wetland ecosystem Develop collaborative management of wetland resources for conservation as well as for sustainable livelihoods Estimated total cost: USD 20 Million Project Rationale The issue of wetland conservation has not received much attention in Nepal though it has tremendous ecological, social-cultural, aesthetic as well as economic values. Most of the wetlands in the country have been threatened due to the degradation of wetland habitats, depletion of species diversity and loss of wetland ecosystem integrity. Moreover, the gap in the policy framework related to wetland management issue, has also triggered the loss of the wetland ecosystems. Therefore, there is an immediate need to address the problem of wetland ecosystem degradation in the country and also promote the wise use of wetland resources for human welfare and economic upliftment. Objective Draft This project aims for the management of ecosystem as well as sustainable use of wetlands biodiversity. Project Activities Preparation of national data base of wetlands Monitoring and mapping of priority wetlands Developing mechanism and procedures for incorporating wetlands concerns in policy and planning at both national and local levels Supporting community based user groups to enhance livelihood activities Assessing the multiple values/benefits of wetlands Promoting public awareness programs for sustainable use of resources Protecting the rights of local people residing adjacent to wetlands Seeking technical assistance from relevant agencies for the wetland conservation Involving the various inter-sectoral and multistakeholder committees for promoting the conservation and sustainable use of wetlands Project Outcomes Short-term Long-term Outputs outputs (2011-2015) (2016-2021) Priority National wetlands Inventory of identified wetlands prepared and monitored National institutional, Activities to technical and influence economic capacity wetland for wetland policies and management practices strengthened planned Activities for Partnerships sustainable use of and capacity wetland resources developed at implemented both national and Local user groups, local levels NGOs, relevant government Traditional agencies involved knowledge for decision and making processes practices promoted Implementation Implementing Agency: Relevant line ministries along with implementing partners and Un agencies (Ministry of Forests and Soil Conservation , IUCN,UNDP) Estimated Cost: USD 20 Million Risks and Barriers: Delayed implementation due to the country’s situation and funding Monitoring and Evaluation: Works will be evaluated by the experts from line ministries and implementing partners Energy from the water-( hydropower projects whether storage or run- of- the river type) should also be included in the report. Or it is assumed to be included in report on Energy. Reference: ADB. 2010. Development of a State-of-the-art Hydro-Meteorological Monitoring System for Flood Early Warning in Nepal. ADB. (2008). Preparing the Secondary Towns Integrated Urban Environmental Improvement Project. Technical Assistance Consultant’s Report. Japan Special Fund and the Netherlands Trust Fund for the Water Financing Partnership Facility Ageta, Y., Naito, N., Nakawo, M., Fujita, K., Shankar, K., Pokhrel AP. and Wangda, D. (2001) Study project on the recent rapid shrinkage of summer-accumulation type glaciers in the Himalayas, 1997-1999. In: Bulletin of Glaciological Research 18, Japanese society of snow and ice Comment [SD8]: i.These strategies and activities requires reframing to incorporate in the above mentioned strategies and activities (track change mode) and accordingly project outcome, implementing agency and budget need to be worked out. For example: Glacial lake monitoring comes under scientific research and study as an activity or sub-activity. Improve Environmental database comes under Enhance data base acquisition and Provide access to the data as subactivity. Formatted: Indent: Left: 0" Draft Agrawala, S., Raksakulthai, V., Aalst, MV. and Larsen, P. (2003) Development and Climate Change In Nepal: Focus on Water Resources and Hydropower. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Paris http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/6/51/19742202.pdf (Retrieved on 18th January, 2011) Alford, D. (1992) Hydrological aspects of the Himalayan region. Occasional Paper number No. 18 ICIMOD, Kathmandu.68 pp Anthwal, A., Joshi, V., Sharma, A. and Anthwal, S. (2006) Retreat of Himalayan Glaciers: Indicator of Climate Change. Nature and Science 4 Bajracharya, S. R., Mool, P. K. and Shrestha, B. R. (2007) Impact of Climate Change on Himalayan Glaciers and Glacial Lakes. International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD).p 119. Bajracharya, SR. and Mool PK. (2006) Impact of global climate change from 1970s to 2000s on the glaciers and glacial lakes in Tamor Basin, Eastern Nepal. Kathmandu: ICIMOD Bajracharya, SR. and Mool PK. (2005) Growth of hazardous glacial lakes in Nepal. Proceedings of the JICA Regional seminar on natural disaster mitigation and issues on technology transfer in South and Southeast Asia (September 30-13 and October 2004), Department of Geology, Tri-Chandra Campus, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal. Bhandari, B. B. (2007) Himalayan Mountain Wetlands: Case Studies from Nepal in " Current Issues on Wetland Conservation in Asia: In View of the Upcoming COP10" Bhandari Bishnu. B. and Seung Oh Suh (eds). Changwon: Ramsar Wetlands Center Korea. Chalise, SR. and Khanal, NR. (2001) Rainfall and related natural disasters in Nepal. Landslide Hazard Mitigation in the Hindu Kush-Himalayas [Li, T., Chalise, SR. and Upreti, BN (eds.)]. Kathmandu: ICIMOD Chaulagain, NP. (2006) Impacts of climate change on water resources of Nepal: The physical and socioeconomic dimensions. MSc Thesis, University of Flensburg, Germany Cruz, RV., Harasawa, H., Lal, M., Wu, S., Anokhin, Y., Punsalmaa, B., Honda, Y., Jafari, M., Li, C. and Huu Ninh, N. (2007) Asia. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Cambridge University Press. UK. Dahal, Ranjan Kumar and Hasegawa Shuichi (2008) Representative rainfall thresholds for landslide in the Nepal Himalaya. Geomorphology 100 (2008), pp429-443. Dixit, A., Upadhya, M., Dixit, K., Pokhrel, A. and Rai, DR. (2009) Living with Water Stress in the Hills of the Koshi Basin, Nepal. Institute of Social and Environmental Transition-Nepal (ISET-N) and ICIMOD. Dhital, M.; Khanal, N.; Thapa, K. B.(1993) "The Role of Extreme Weather Events, Mass Movement and Land Use Changes in Increasing Natural Hazards". A Report of the Preliminary Field Assessment and Workshop on Causes of the Recent Damage Incurred in South-central Nepal (July 19-20, 1993), Kathmandu: ICIMOD. Draft Du, MY., Kawashima, S.,Yonemura, S., Zhang, XZ. and Chen, SB. (2004) Mutual influence between human activities and climate change in the Tibetan plateau during recent years. Global and Planetary Change 41: 241-249 DWIDP. (2006/2007). Disaster Review 2006. Kathmandu: Department of Water Induced Disaster Prevention http://www.dwidp.gov.np/pdf/bulletin/review.pdf (Retrieved at 14th January 2011) DWIDP. (2005). Preparation of water induced hazard maps Vol.1. Main Report. Kathmandu: Department of Water Induced Disaster Prevention Eriksson, M., Jianchu, X., Shrestha, AB.,Vaidya, RA.,Nepal, S.and Sandström, K. (2009) The changing Himalayas: Impact of climate change on water resources and livelihoods in the Greater Himalayas. Kathmandu: ICIMOD Fujuta, K., Kadota, T., Rana, B., Kayastha, RB. and Ageta, Y. (2001) Shrinkage of Glacier AX010 in Shorong region, Nepal Himalayas in the 1990s. Bulletin of Glaciological Research 18. Japanese society of snow and ice. Government of Nepal (GoN). (2010) Economic Survey, Fiscal Year 2009/2010, Volume 1, Ministry of Finance. ICIMOD (2010) High level consultative meeting on: Sacred Himalayas for Water, Livelihoods, and Biocultural Heritage, August 18-20, 2010, Godavari Village Resort, Kathmandu. Initial National Communication to the UNFCCC, 2004, Ministry of Environment, Government of Nepal IPCC (2007). Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S; Qin, D; Manning, M; Chen, Z; Marquis, M; Averyt, KB; Tignor, M; Miller, HL (eds)]. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press IPCC. (2001a). Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Watson, RT. and the Core Writing Team (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge: 398 IPCC. (2001b). Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of WG II to TAR of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [McCarthy, MC., Canziani, OF., Leary, NA., Dokken, DJ. and White, KS. (eds.)] Cambridge University Press: 1031 IPCC. (1998). The regional impacts of climate change: An assessment of vulnerability. Special report of IPCC working group II [Watson, RT., Zinyowera, MC., Moss RH. and Dokken, DJ. (eds.)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge IPCC, (1996): Climate Change 1995: Impacts, adaptations and mitigation of climate change: scientific technical analyses. Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Watson, RT., Zinyowera, MC., Moss, RH. and Dokken, DJ.(eds.)], Cambridge University Press Ives, D. (1986). Glacial Lake Outburst Floods and Risk Engineering in the Himalaya. ICIMOD Occassional Paper No. 5. Kathmandu: ICIMOD Draft Kaczmarek, Z., Arnell, N. and Starkel, L. (1996) Climate, Hydrology, and Water Resources. Water resources Management in the face of climatic/ hydrologic uncertainties [Kaczmarek, Z., Strezepek, KM., Somlody, L. and Priyajhinskaya,V. (eds.)], International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg Kattelmann, R. (1993) Role of snowmelt in generating streamflow during spring in east Nepal. In: Snow and glacier hydrology. Proceedings of the Kathmandu symposium, November 1992. IAHS Publication No. 218. Khanal, N. R. (1995a) "Mass Movement in Nepal Himalaya". Paper presented at the regional workshop on landslide hazard management and control in the Hindu Kush-Himalayas, July 12-14, ICIMOD, Kathmandu (unpublished). Khanal, N. R. (1995b) "The 1993 Extreme Event in Nepal and Its Consequences". Unpublished paper presented at the international Himalayan / Tibetan Plateau Paleoclimate Workshop, 2-7 April 1995, Kathmandu. Khanal, N. R.; Chalise, S. R.; Pokhrel, A. P. (1998) "Ecohydrology of River Basins of Nepal". In Chalise, S. R.; Hermann, A.; Khanal, N. R.; Lang, H.; Molnar, L. and Pokharel, A. P. (eds) Proceedings of the International Conference on Ecohydrology of High Mountain Areas. pp49-61, Kathmandu:ICIMOD. Kulshrestha, S. N., Kos, Z. and Priyajhinskaya, V. (1996) Implications of climate change for future water demand. In: Water resources Management in the face of climatic/ hydrologic uncertainties [Kaczmarek, Z., Strezepek, KM., Somlody, L. and Priyajhinskaya, V. (eds.)], International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg Liu, X. and Chen, B. (2000) Climatic warming in the Tibetan Plateau during recent decades. International Journal of Climatology 20: 1729-1742 Milly, P., Wetherald, RT., Dunne, KA. and Delworth, TL. (2002) Increasing risks of great floods in a changing climate. Nature 415 Mirza, MQ. and Dixit, A. (1997) Climate change and water management in the GBM basins. Water Nepal 5, Nepal Water Conservation Foundation, Kathmandu: 71-100 Mool, PK. (2007) Application of Remote Sensing and GIS in Monitoring Glacial Lake Outburst Flood in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya Region. Second Asian Ministerial Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction, (78 November, India). Kathmandu: ICIMOD http://www.nidm.gov.in/amcd_presentations/groupa_theme1/mool.pdf (Retrieved on 25th January, 2011) MOPE. (2004). Implementation of UN Convention to Control Desertification. Ministry of Population and Environment, HMG Nepal, Kathmandu Nakawo, M., Fujita, K., Ageta, Y., Shankar, K., Pokhrel, AP. and Tandong,Y. (1997) Basic studies for assessing the impacts of the global warming on the Himalayan cryosphere, 1994-1996. In: Bulletin of Glacier research 15, Data center for glacier research, Japanese society for snow and ice. National Adaption Program of Action (NAPA), 2010, NAPA Document, Ministry of Environment, Government of Nepal. National Water Plan, 2005, Water and Energy Commission Secretariat (WECS), Government of Nepal. Draft NCVST. (2009). Vulnerability Through the Eyes of Vulnerable: Climate Change Induced Uncertainties and Nepal’s Development Predicaments. Institute for Social and Environmental Transition-Nepal (ISETN), Nepal Climate Vulnerability Study Team Kathmandu Nelson, DR., Adger, WN. and Brown. K. (2007) Adaptation to Environmental Change: Contributions of a Resilience Framework. Annual Review of Environment and Resources 32: 395–419. Ouardo, T., Cunderlik, J., St. Hilaire, A., Barbet, M., Brueneau, P. and Bobee, B. (2006) Data-based comparison of seasonality-based regional flood frequency methods. Journal of Hydrology 330: 329-339 Pandey, VP., Chapagain, SK. And Kazama, F. (2010) Evaluation of Groundwater Environment of Kathmandu Valley. Environmental Earth Sciences 60:1329–1342) Practical Action. (2009). Temporal and Spatial Variability of Climate Change over Nepal (1976 – 2005). Kathmandu: Practical Action Rai (2007) Retreating the Himalayas Glaciers: Alarming Situation http://www.forestrynepal.org/article/89/2499 (Retrieved on 2nd February, 2011) in Nepal. Renoj, J.,Thayyen, JT., Dobhai, DP. (2007) Role of glaciers and snow cover on headwater river hydrology in monsoon regime: Micro-scale study of Din Gad catchment, Garhwal Himalaya, India. Current Science 92(3): 376-382 Sadoff, C. (2008) Proceedings of the National Dialogue on Himalayan Water Resources. Final Report, The Abu Dhabi Dialogues, Ministry of Water Resources, Jalsrot Vikas Sanstha and Nepal Water Conservation Foundation, (16 May), Kathmandu, Nepal Shakya, NM. (2003) Hydrological Changes Assessment and Its Impact on Hydro Power Projects of Nepal. Draft proceedings of the Consultative Workshop on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options in Nepal’s Hydropower Sector with a Focus on Hydrological Regime Changes Including GLOF, Department of Hydrology and Meteorology and Asian Disaster Preparedness Center, (5-6 March), Kathmandu, Nepal Sharma, E., Chettri, N., Tse-ring, K., Shrestha, AB., Jing, F., Mool, P. and Eriksson, M. (2009) Climate change Impacts and Vulnerability in the Eastern Himalyas. Kathmandu: ICIMOD Sharma, HS. and Shakya, NM. (2005) Hydrological changes and its impacts on water resources of Bagmati watershed, Nepal. Journal of Hydrology 327: 315-322 Sharma, KP. (2003) Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources of Nepal. Draft proceedings of the Consultative Workshop on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options in Nepal’s Hydropower Sector with a Focus on Hydrological Regime Changes Including GLOF, Department of Hydrology and Meteorology and Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (5-6 March 2003) Kathmandu Draft Shrestha and Devkota (2010) Climate Change in the Eastern Himalayas: Observed Trends and Model Projections: Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability in the Eastern Himalayas. A Technical Report. Kathmandu: ICIMOD Shrestha, S. H. (2004) Economic Geography of Nepal, Educational Publishing House, Kathmandu, p.250 Shrestha, AB., Mool, P., Shrestha, M., Pradhan, N., Bhandari, B. and Vaidya, R. (2010). Climate Summit for a Living Himalayas - Bhutan 2011. Framework paper for the Consultative Meeting. Kathmandu: ICIMOD Shrestha, A. (2008) Overview on Climate Research, Presentation at the Advanced Institute on the Asian Monsoon System: Prediction of Change and Variability, East-West Center, Honolulu, HI. Shrestha, KL. (2005) Global change impact assessment for Himalayan mountain regions for environmental management and sustainable development. Global Environmental Research 9: 69-81 Shrestha, ML. and Shrestha, AB. (2004) Recent trends and potential climate change impacts on glacier retreat/glacier lakes in Nepal and potential adaptation. Global Forum on Sustainable Development: Development and Climate Change (11-12 November 2004, France). Shrestha, AB. (2001) Tsho Rolpa Glacier Lake: Is it linked to Climate Change? In: Global Change in Himalayan Mountains. Proceedings of a scoping workshop, Kathmandu Nepal, [Shrestha, K.L. (ed.)]: .85-95 Shrestha, AB., Wake, CP., Dibb, JE. and Mayewski, PA. (2000) Precipitation fluctuations in the Nepal Himalaya and its vicinity and relationship with some large scale climatologically parameters. International Journal of Climatology 20: 317-327 Shrestha, AB., Wake, CP., Dibb, JE. and Mayewski, PA. (1999) Maximum Temperature Trends in the Himalaya and Its Vicinity: An Analysis Based on Temperature Records from Nepal for the Period 197194. Journal of Climate 12, American Meteorological Society: 2775-2786 Strategic Program for Climate Resilient (SPCR), 2010, SPCR Program Document, Ministry of Environment, Government of Nepal. Twomlow, S., Mugabe, FT., Mwale, M., Delve, R., Nanja, D., Carberry, P. and Howden, M. (2008) Building Adaptive Capacity to Cope with Increasing Vulnerability Due to Climatic Change in Africa: A New Approach. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 33: 780–87 UNDP. (2006). Human Development Report: Beyond Scarcity: Power, Poverty and the Global Water Crisis. New York: United Nations Development Programme WECS. (2006). WECS, GIS-RS Unit, Nepal. http://www.raonline.ch/pages/np/nat/np_glacier01b01.html (Retrieved on 13th March, 2011) World Bank. (2009). World Development Report 2010 .Climate change and Development. Washington, DC: World Bank Draft WWF. (2010). Climate Change Impacts on Freshwater Ecosystems in the Himalayas. WWF,Indiahttp://wwf.panda.org/what_we_do/where_we_work/project/projects/index.cfm?uProjectID=9 S0814 (Retrieved on 21st January, 2011) WWF. (2005). An Overview of Glaciers, Glacier Retreat, and Subsequent Impacts in Nepal, India and China. Kathmandu: WWF Nepal Xu Jianchu., Grumbine, ER., Shrestha, A., Eriksson, M., Yang, X., Wang, Y. and Wilkes, A. (2009) The melting Himalayas: Cascading effects of climate change on water, biodiversity, and livelihoods’. Conservation Biology 23(3):520-530 Xu Jianchu., Shrestha, A., Vaidya, R., Eriksson, M., Hewitt, K. (2007) The melting Himalayas: Regional challenges and local impacts of climate change on mountain ecosystems and livelihoods. ICIMOD Technical Paper. Kathmandu: ICIMOD Zhao, L., Ping, CL., Yang, DQ., Cheng, GD., Ding, YJ. and Liu, SY. (2004) Change of climate and seasonally frozen ground over the past 30 years in Qinghai-Tibetan plateau, China. Global and Planetary Change 43: 19-31