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Transcript
”Tales from East Africa" Tom Johnson Large Lakes Observatory, and Department of Geological Sciences University of Minnesota Duluth www.d.umn.edu/llo Or, the title I suspect you may be thinking: “Yet Another Professor’s Willy Nilly, Irresponsible Expenditure of Federal Funds in Far-Away Lands” The Great Lakes of East Africa Turkana Albert Edward Victoria Tanganyika Malawi IPCC (IV) prediction of climate change during the 21st century (average of 21 climate models) “Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change and climate variability, a situation aggravated by --- low adaptive capacity.” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, AR4, 2007 Looking for patterns and connections in the global climate system ---- What role (if any) has climate played in the evolution of our species? Cave paintings from the Sahara Tree rings The “Paleoclimatologists” Ocean drilling Ice cores Piston coring On the ocean On Lake Victoria Finding the right place to core with seismic reflection profiling Lake Tanganyika - 1982 R/V Nyanja – 36 ft, 12 tons Our second night out on Tanganyika ---- Adrift and out of fuel A tow into the village of Nyanza Lac, Burundi More than 4 km of sediment underlie the major rift lakes Lake Tanganyika Lake Turkana, Kenya - 1984 Looking at Lake Turkana, Kenya to determine the Nile’s past Blue Nile White Nile Omo R. Lake Turkana Fossil diatoms indicate that an abrupt shift from freshwater to saltwater conditions happened 4300 years ago Dry Wet John Halfman, Ph.D thesis, Duke Univ. The Old Kingdom of Egypt collapsed 4200 years ago Exciting new developments ------ TEX86 – A proxy for past temperature based on tetraether compounds (GDGTs) from Thaumarchaea marine Thaumarchaea(<1 mm) bacteria Hydrophilic head Hydrophilic head groups groups Hydrophobic interior Images courtesy of Johan Weijers Lake Malawi >700m deep 4th deepest lake in the world ~600km long and average of 55km wide Anoxic below 200m A 25,000 year history of temperature in the African tropics Recent warming 5000 years ago – a surprisingly warm time in the southern African tropics Significant cooling during the ACR and YD Site 2 The last glacial maximum Powers et al., 2005 Temperature records from Lake Tanganyika show recent warming, much like the whole world Site 2 Site 1 Diatom silty clay Laminated Nonlaminated Calcareous silty clay - usually bioturbated A 1.2 million year record of temperature in the Malawi basin EXISTING UNDERSTANDING FIGURE 2.3' 9 &=4$8+' "1' +' SHWKG +' Paranthropus boisei' 8,+( $5# ' 1"5( 7' ?. ' G +,. ' $( 'SVOV'+% '_ 4753+$'A",B&D'/ ) "@( '@$% ) '+',&=4$8+'" 1'+'SHNKG +'# +( 7$?4&'"1'% ) &'/ +# &' 1,"# 'Z&( $( >D'<+( d+( $+H'- _ J 9 ! * U'F# +B&'8"5,% &/ . '2 5# +( ' _ ,$B$( / 'Z,"B,+# D'- # $% ) F( / % $% 5% $"( H' [ ) $% &'&% ' +4HD'NLLMYD'+( 7' B,+75+4' 8) +( B&'1,"# ' A. anamensis' % "' A. afaren ?&&( '7"85# &( % &7'Xb $# ?&4'&% '+4HD'NLLMYH'E 4% ) "5B) '% ) &$,'1""7'=,"8&/ / $( B'+( 7$11&,&7D'% ) $/ ' 4$( &+B&'"1' ?$=&7+4' ) "# $( $( / ' ) +7' ?,+$( ' % "' ?" 7. ' # +/ / ' ,+% $"/ ' % +?"5% '% ) &' / +# &' +/ ' % ) "/ &' "1' &0% +( % ' B,&+% ' +=&/ H'<) &$,' 4$# ?' =,"=" ,% $"( / ' 7 1,"# ' % ) "/ &'"1' ?"% ) ' 8) $# =+( d&&/ ' +( 7' ) 5# +( / D'+( 7' % ) &$,' =&43$8' +( 7' ) $=' / % , / 5BB&/ % / '+'/ "# &@) +% '7$11&,&( % '# "7&'"1'?$=&7+4'4"8"# "% $"( '1,"# '% ) +% '" 1'"5 B&( 5/ ' HomoH'! "( !' ,# +% $"( ' "1' ?$=&7+4' 4" 8"# "% $"( ' 8"# &/ ' 1,"# ' 1"/ / $4$d&7 =,$( % / ' +% ' ; +&% "4$' $( ' <+( d+( $+' X; &+R&. ' +( 7' 2 +. D'SVQVYH'Australopithecus' / &0) $?$% &7' 7$11&,&( 8&/ ' $( ' ?"7. ' / $d&' +( 7' 8+( $( &' 7$# &( / $"( / ' ?&% @&&( ' # +4 1&# +4&/ ' X$H&HD'/ &05+4' 7$# ",=) $/ # YH'A. afarensis' $/ ' @&44' R( "@( ' 1,"# ' 8,+( $ ="/ % 8,+( $+4'=+,% / '+( 7'$( 8457&/ '% ) &'1+# "5/ '=+,% $+4'/ R&4&% "( 'p; 58. p'1,"# '^T E' ,&4+% &7' ) "# $( $( j A. africanusj $/ ' @&44' R( "@( ' ?5% ' ="",4. ' 7+% &7' 1,"# E 1,$8+( '8+3&'/ $% &/ H'_ ( &'$( 7$3$75+4'$/ '"1'+'( &+,4. '8"# =4&% &'/ R&4&% "( 'X! 4+,R&D NLLNYD'@) $8) '=,"# $/ &/ '% "'7&4$3&,'# 58) '$# =",% +( % '$( 1",# +% $"( '+?"5% '% ) $/ '/ " 1",# H'<) &'. " 5( B&/ % '# &# ?&,'"1'% ) $/ 'B&( 5/ D'A. garhiD'@+/ ',&8"3&,&7'1,"# 'N 7&="/ $% / '$( '* % ) $"=$+'XE / 1+@'&% '+4HD'SVVVYD'?5% '4$% % 4&'$/ ' R( "@( ' +?"5% '$% ' &08& % ) &'% ,&( 7'% ) ,"5B) " 5% '% ) $/ ' 4$( &+B&'% "'4+,B&,' >+@/ ' +( 7'% &&% ) '8"( % $( 5&7H'' * 0% ,&# &4. '4+,B&K% ""% ) &7') "# $( $( / '+==&+,'$( '% ) &',&8",7'+,"5( 7'NHQ'G +H +,&'/ "# &% $# &/ ' =4+8&7' $( ' Australopithecus' ?5% ' +,&'# ",&'8"# # "( 4. ' +/ / $B % ) &$,' "@( ' B&( 5/ D'Paranthropus' XI $B5,&'NHTYH'<) &/ &'o,"?5/ % p' 8,&+% 5,&/ D'/ " Hominin evolution extends back some 7 million years We have only begun to recover the record of human evolution! African Great Lakes in Peril: Lake Malawi example Lake Malawi has ~1000 species of fish: the most of any lake in the world. 99% of these species are endemic to the lake. Ornamental fish trade serves as an important source of foreign exchange. Fish provide 75% of the animal protein intake for the people of Malawi. IPCC (IV) prediction of climate change during the 21st century (average of 21 climate models) -------- 5000 m3 water/ha y required for irrigation. If applied to one million hectares, amounts to 5 km3 water per year. "Promoting Irrigated Agriculture in Malawi" Lake Malawi level from ~1863 to 2011 Shire outflow - 15 km3/y - 10 km3/y No outflow from 1900 to 1935 - 5 km3/y Outflow would stop! Approximately 95% of Malawi’s electricity is derived from four hydroelectric dams on the Shire River, which flows out of Lake Malawi Lake Malawi – the next Aral Sea? Needs at the systems level approach CLIMATE SYSTEM & DYNAMICS LAKE MALAWI DYNAMICS HYDROLOGICAL ANALYSIS HUMAN DIMENSION LAND COVER/ LAND USE The Research Team Co-PIs • Climate - Sharon Nicholson, Florida State Univ.; Bette Otto-Bliesner, NCAR • Hydrology - Assefa Melesse, Florida Intl. Univ.; Eric Wood*, Princeton Univ. • Lake Dynamics - Jay Austin, Stephanie Guildford, Robert Hecky, Thomas Johnson, Joe Werne*, all at Univ. Minnesota Duluth • Human Dimension – Asli Aslan, Tracy Dobson, Anne Ferguson, Craig Harris, Sieg Snapp*, Leo Zulu, all at Michigan State Univ. • Ecosystem Services, Economic Tradeoffs – Stephen Polasky*, Univ. Minnesota Twin Cities Proposal in Review at NSF --- Unique complexities of the system: • Data poor, underfed region of our planet • • • Poverty is prevalent People are particularly vulnerable to the whims of climate Expatriate pressure for agriculture development Subsurface moorings in Lake Malawi January 2012 My sincere thanks to my friends, colleagues and students in UMD’s Large Lakes Observatory and collaborating institutions Funding provided over the years by: • The U.S. National Science Foundation • The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration • The University of Minnesota • The Petroleum Research Fund of the American Chemical Society My sincere gratitude is extended to the Outstanding Administrators who have ably laundered managed the research grants in LLO over the past 17+ years: • Mary Plante • Colleen Denny • Yvonne Chan • Lori Johnson And to the patient and highly professional members of the UMD SPA team who have insured that our funny papers preposterous propositions proposals always are properly contrived formatted and arrive on time at the funding agencies: • Jim Loukes • Elizabeth Rumsey • Janice Sakry • Bill Flaherty • Claudia Carranza