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Grade 12 Geography – Canada and World Issues - Unit 1
Club of Rome
Limits to Growth, The Next 200 Years: A Scenario for America and the
World and Beyond the Limits
Published in 1972 by the think-tank Club of Rome, The Limits to Growth was
based computer model simulating future outcomes of the world economy. The
model is a dynamic system of feedback loops. A loop is a path that connects an
action to its effect on surrounding conditions which, in turn, can influence further
action.
The Club of Rome released The Next 200 Years: A Scenario for America and the
World in 1976 with a more optimistic output. The process is back casting to
forecast the future (i.e., examining past events to predict future outcomes). In
this scenario, there is a continuing evolution of technology that pushes back the
natural limits until they are no longer limiting. These ideas were developed as
scenarios (e.g., increased food production by technological processes. Thus,
there is no limit)
The work was revisited in the 1992 report Beyond the Limits. The model was
reexamined and changes between the two time periods were introduced.
The Pessimist Model
Three main conclusions were reached by this model.
1. Within 100 years with no major change in the physical, economic, or social
relationships that have traditionally governed world development, society
will run out of the nonrenewable resources on which the industrial base
depends. As a result, the economic system will collapse, manifested in
massive unemployment, decreased food production and a decline in
population as the death rate soars. There is no smooth transition, no
gradual slowing down of activity; rather, the economic system consumes
successively larger amounts of the non-renewable resources until they are
gone. In the end, the system collapses.
2. A piecemeal approach to solving the individual problems will not be
successful. Estimates were doubled and the model traced out an
alternative vision based on this new higher level of resources. The
collapse still occurs, but this time it is caused by excessive pollution
generated by the increased pace of industrialization permitted by the
greater availability of resources. If the depleted resource and pollution
problems were jointly solved, population would grow unabated and the
availability of food would become the binding constraint. In this model the
removal of one limit merely causes the system to subsequently reach
another limit – with dire consequences.
Grade 12 Geography – Canada and World Issues - Unit 1
Club of Rome
Page 2
3. An overshoot and collapse can be avoided only by an immediate limit on
population and pollution, as well as a cessation of economic growth. The
portrait painted shows only two possible outcomes: (1) Self-restraint and
a policy on growth to avoid collapse, or (2) No change and societal
collapse. One way or the other, growth will cease.
The Optimistic Model
The basic conclusion is 200 years ago human beings were comparatively few,
poor and at the mercy of the forces of nature: whereas, 200 years from now,
humans will be numerous, rich and in control of the forces of nature.
The future path of population growth is approximated as an S-shaped logistic
curve. In the past, there have been periods of exponential population growth.
Using a variety of technological scenarios coupled with historic trends, growth
rates will steadily decline until, at the end of the next 200-year period, growth
stops. Human population would be four times its current level (…and average
incomes would be much higher).
This technological evolution of society is natural. It is unwarranted and unethical
to interfere. Tampering with the growth process would consign the residents of
the poorest countries to a life of poverty and no hope. In contrast, continued
growth provides continued betterment for everyone with the greatest benefits to
the poor
The Revised Model
The world proceeds without major policy change, although technology advances
occur in agriculture, industry and social services (e.g., health care), and the
entire world evolves to post-industrial with a significant increase in population.
There is no extraordinary effort to abate pollution or conserve resources.
Eventually, the growth of the economy stops and reverses as limits are met. For
example, pollution impacts land fertility. Food production decreases. The
economy invests in agriculture to maintain output, but the limits are realized and
growth slows. In other words, more capital in diverted to food and nonrenewable
resources as they become harder to obtain The leaves less output to be invested
in basic capital growth. Due to this constraint, less capital is channeled to the
agriculture and resource sectors. Other sectors decline until the world population
begins to decrease (i.e., death rate is driven upward by lack of food and health
services.).
Grade 12 Geography – Canada and World Issues - Unit 1
Club of Rome – Summary
Club of Rome is an “economic-social-political thinktank”
Used a computer model to examine the world
economy with relationship to resource use and
depletion.
Developed three reports:
Limits to Growth - The Pessimistic Model
Without change in the physical, economic or
social relationships that have traditionally governed
world development, society will run out of the
nonrenewable resources. As a result, the world
economy will crash. This report is called the
Pessimistic Model.
Limits to Growth - The Optimistic Model
The economy will not crash; rather
technological solutions will be found and
implemented.
Limits to Growth - The Revised Model
There is no extraordinary effort to abate
pollution or conserve resources. Eventually, the
growth of the economy stops and reverses as limits
are met. For example, pollution impacts land
fertility, and consequently, food production
decreases. With constraints, little money is
invested.