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Transcript
SUMMIT IMPLEMENTATION REVIEW GROUP (SIRG)
First Regular Meeting of 2009
GRIC/O.1/doc.8/09
January 12-16, 2009 (Working Group Sessions)
January 14-16, 2009 (Plenary Sessions)
Padilha Vidal Room– 1889 F Street NW, DC 20006
Washington, D.C.
PRESENTATION ON ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY
CARIBBEAN COMMUNITY CLIMATE CHANGE CENTRE (CCCCC)
OEA/Ser.E
14 January 2009
Original: English
Vth SUMMIT OF THE
AMERICAS SRIG
MEETING
CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUES
WASHINGTON DC FEB. 14TH 2009
CARIBBEAN COMMUNITY CLIMATE CHANGE CENTRE
2
The Global Climate Projections

Unequivocal evidence that the earth’s temperature
is rising and attributable to anthropogenic
activities – Green House Gases

Projected trends through 2100

rise in global temperatures of between 2 – 4.5oC

Sea level rise of between 11 -77 cm

Changed weather patterns

More intense extremes –drought ,floods

More intense hurricanes
3
Direct Regional Evidence
0.6
0.5
0.2
– Floods in some areas and
droughts in other areas
1999
1996
1990
1998
1993
1987
1984
1995
1981
1975
1986
1978
1972
1969
1983
1966
1963
1977
-0.5
1960
2003
2000
1997
1994
1991
1988
1985
1982
1979
1976
-0.4
-1.0
-0.6
-1.5
-0.8
1.0
Saint
Lucia
SAINT
LUCIA
0.5
0.6
2000
1997
1994
1991
1988
1985
-1.5
-0.4
-2.0
-0.6
2004
2001
1992
1989
-1.0
1982
0.0
1979
-0.5
1973
0.2
1980
0.0
0.4
-0.2
– Records have shown
changing patterns.
1973
-0.2
1974
0.0
0.0
0.8
• Rainfall trend
TRINIDAD
TRINIDAD
1.0
0.4
1.0
– 1998 also appears as the
warmest year on record.
1.5
BARBADOS
BARBADOS
1976
– Temperature records have
shown an increase in the last
century, with the 1990s being
the warmest decade since the
beginning of the 20th
century.
0.8
1970
• Temperature trend
Dominica
DOMINICA
-2.5
-0.8
1973
Period
to
2000
Period
1973
to
2000
Variations of land surface
temperature for the Caribbean
4
FUTURE PROJECTED % CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION
5
MODEL PROJECTION OF FUTURE INCREASES
IN THE REGIONAL TEMPERATURES
6
Consequences Of Climate Change.
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Change in rainfall regimes
Increased evaporation with higher temperature
Increased evapo-transpiration (soil moisture)
>> SLR – salt water intrusion (estuarine, aquifers)
Decreased precipitation
Increase in extreme events – droughts, floods
Increased intensity of heavy rain events – rapid run off /
flash floods, >> soil erosion, >> run off of contaminants
>> intensity of hurricanes
Adverse effects on coastal water
7
IMPACTS
●
Impact studies on vulnerable elements – some
indications :
● Less precipitation - less available water;
● Changing weather patterns – agriculture
adversely affected.
● Increased frequency of extreme events
● Sea level rise – coastal inundation, storm surge
exaggeration ( tourism, aquifers, agriculture,
infrastructure, human settlement)
● Increased intensity of hurricanes ( human
settlements, tourism, infrastructure, livelihoods.
● Increased temperature ( agriculture, health, coral
reefs)
8
IMPACTS
Dire consequences for
●
Economic activities

Tourism

Agriculture

Financial sector
●
Property and infrastructure
●
Human welfare
●
Livelihoods
●
Regional natural resource base
●
Attainment of MDGs in prescribed time frame.
●
Indeed for realization of sustainable development goals.
9
2008 Atlantic hurricane season
●
●
●
●
Tropical Storm Arthur caused the season to
start two days early. – 9 deaths ,$78M US
damage in Belize.
Third most costly season on record, behind only
the 2004 and 2005 seasons, with up to $45
billion in damage (2008 USD).
the only year on record in which a major
hurricane existed in every month from July
through November in the North Atlantic.[1
particularly devastating for Haiti, where over
800 people were killed by four consecutive
tropical cyclones (Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike)
10
]
in August and September.
2008 Atlantic hurricane season
Season summary map
First storm formed:
Last storm dissipated:
Strongest storm:
May 30, 2008
November 10, 2008
Ike - 935 mbar (hPa) (27.62 inHg), 145
mph (230 km/h)
Total depressions:
17
Total storms:
16
Hurricanes:
8
Major hurricanes (Cat. 3+):
5
Total fatalities:
836 direct, 104 indirect
Total damage:
~ $45 billion (2008 USD)
Atlantic hurricane seasons
2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, Post-2009
•Timeline of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season
11
REGIONAL ISSUES
●
Support efforts for ADAPTATION
●
Monitoring and observation systems
●
●
●
Capacity building –Implementation of the
Bali Action Plan
Transfer of Environmentally Sound
Technologies
New resources to support ADAPTATION
12
SUCCESSOR AGREEMENT TO
Kyoto Protocol
●
●
●
●
Region already finding difficulty to cope with
present day climate.
Proposed stabilization of global GHG emissions
at 450 ppm requires 20% cut by 2020 & 50% by
2050 resulting in 2ºC avg. rise in global temp.
Region should strive to get agreement on 350
ppm stabilization level which would require a
30% cut by 2020 and an 80% cut by 2050( in
keeping with a EU proposal)
This will result in a 1.5ºC avg. rise in global
temp.
13
ENERGY – CARIBBEAN CONTEXT
●
●
●
●
All CARICOM countries except T&T net energy importers.
Strong dependence on fossil fuel – potential to reverse
developmental gains achieved over the last 2-3 decades.
Regional scenario of limited resources & >> cost of energy
putting a severe drain on limited financial resources

116 Mb in 1985 costing US $ 530 m

160 Mb in 2004 costing US $6.5 B

At 2008 prices US $15b – in some cases requiring countries to
devote 50% of foreign exchange earnings to purchase fuel
wrt to CC mitigation region contributes << 1% to global
GHG budget however opportunity to place the regional
energy sector on a more sustainable footing
14
ENERGY –CARIBBEAN CONTEXT
●
Take advantage of innovative financing mechanisms
(CDM) & provision of favorable terms for Tech. Transfer to
decrease the Carbon Footprint in the region’s energy
sector through investment in:
●
Energy Efficiency
●
Renewable Energy
●

Solar ,Wind ,Geothermal, Hydro ,OTEC ,Tidal.

Biomass including bio-fuels.
Establishment of a hemispheric emissions trading
regime akin to the existing regime in the EU to create
market incentives for mitigation.
15
THE CARIBBEAN COMMUNITY
CLIMATE CHANGE CENTRE
2nd Floor, Lawrence Nicholas Bldg.
P.O. Box 563
Bliss Parade,
Belmopan City, Belize
Tel: +501-822-1094/1104
Fax: +501-822-1365
Website: www.caribbeanclimate.bz
The best way to predict the future...is to create it ...
THANK YOU
16