Download RCCL PowerPoint - DePaul University

Making Our World a More
Understandable Place
► Political Language and Those Who Use It
► “Democracy” and Its Many Meanings
► Challenges to American Objectives:
Grandma’s Recipe for Success
► New & Old Visions of Politics: EU & Nationalism
► Big Countries/Small Countries: Does Size Matter?
► Globalization: Positive & Negative Visions
► Who’s Your Cousin?: Insights from Science &
Genetics
1
Making Our World a More
Understandable Place
Propose to take you on a
thoughtful political adventure
where we encounter new visions
and contemplate new ideas
2
Making Our World a More
Understandable Place
Political Language and
Those Who Use It
3
How open are YOU to …
►recognizing purposeful ambiguity
►acknowledging political manipulation
►differentiating theory from practice
►resisting defensive posturing
►abandoning assumptions of superiority
►rethinking the utility and precision of the
words we use
Intellectual Sedatives
Better labeled:
Basic notion: It
POLITICAL SEDATIVES
is in the interest of segments of our
system to get a thought-less response to an appeal!
The reason this works is the presumption that “we all
know” what a particular term means. Therefore, it
requires absolutely no investment of our time or effort
to think about what it means.
Quite naturally, those directing our behaviors
(responses) are advantaged if we neglect to
challenge them or the premises they offer us.
+
Intellectual Sedatives …
►Words or phrases that invite us NOT to
think about what they mean !
►These fit our lifestyle because we have no
time to put them under the microscope
►Comfortable because “everyone” knows that
there is a division of labor; some things need
to be left to our political managers
►We know they are guided by the highest
motives !
WHO?
Politicians
Media
Experts
Opinion-shapers
Political Evangelists
Teachers
How guilty are we / you?
Why might we be a part of
the problem?
Choose to communicate in terms that are understood
Not enough time to reconstruct our political language
Apprehension about seeming “un-American”
Misuse has a very long history …
we may be unsure of where more carefully defining
terms could lead us
We may not have given thought to the nature of the
terms … simply accepted the norms
Symbolism or Reality?
Consider how frequently we USE the
following terms and how infrequently we
think about what EXACTLY we mean …
Freedom
Unrestrained; oxymoron: partial freedom
Politics:
Social process involving rivalry and cooperation in the
making of a decision binding on a group
Most “freedom” = least government?
Most democracy = least government?
Source of rules & constraints?
+
What political structures
create freedom?
Rules, laws, policies … defines
►Alternative idea = choice
Priority? -political choice vs. economic choice
Empowering? –
political choice vs. economic choice
Equality and Fairness
Ultimate fairness =
treating everyone the same?
Where and when do we do this?
Treating people unequally …
according to special needs,
talents, abilities
+
Equality …
Un-American!
Recognition of differences
Anti-capitalist; anti-politics
“equal opportunity” misnomer
what is that really?
Example: inheritance …
Persistently MISUSED!
Very tough choices for us … what to do
Conform or invest in the effort to renovate
use of the terms?
RIGHT & LEFT
Conservative & Liberal
Most delicate of all … American confusion!
CLASSIC ideological continuum
►Key: Locus of Power in the larger system
individual
state
→ …………………………………………. ←
Left
Right
liberal
conservative
choice
power
Crisis
Requiring immediate, dramatic response
to avoid massive damage
Proliferation of the term negates its
meaning
NOT simply a problem
Discrimination
Differentiating, sorting, evaluating
Constant! … not negative phenomenon
Adjective … is politically critical
The world is dependent on discrimination!
Rights
Guarantee!
Source? The sovereign state /
governing authority
Abridged? Can you think of a right that has not been ?
No “UNIVERSAL” rights
No “INALIENABLE” rights
Justice
guilty punished; innocent not punished
►Procedural vs. substantive justice
Due process
Faith in jury system
►Epidemic litigation environment
+
Rule of Law
Is any political system without law?
►Magic = removing arbitrary decisions
►Predictability is the objective:
process or outcome?
Procedural vs. substantive justice
►Guilty punished; innocent not
►Masses approve new rules?
Nation
Most prolifically misused !
Mistakenly used in place of “STATE”
Most often properly used in academic and
particularly in comparative studies,
STATE is a political entity defined by
boundaries and sovereignty (“country”)
NATION is an ethno-cultural identity –
a “people” with claimed elaborate common
characteristics
Terms that have too many
meanings … to be useful
Extreme caution is warranted that what
we mean is what is being understood!
representation, war, development,
leadership, participation
Representation
Transmission of interests;
responsive to inputs?
Delegate vs. trustee
“Obligation”
War
Conflict of the sort or condition that
changes all rules or negates all rules
Explicitly … everyone is threatened by a
well defined enemy and any recourse is
thus justified
Removes limits on policy-makers
Development
Overwhelming lack of clarity …
only thing in common is “process”
industrialization
urbanization
globalization
complexity
increased government services
rising income levels
mimicking the US economic model
Leadership
Creating consensus of values
Effectively guiding society
Setting the pace, fine-tuning the society’s
direction
All or any = cop out …
Participation
Accessing or influencing the authorities
Actual or possible?
Input or output side?
More participation … better?
… more democratic?
System overload / capacity
Should we stop using these terms?
Perhaps! In some cases, YES!
freedom, equality, fairness, justice, social justice
In other cases, NO! but carefully and
patiently put them under the microscope.
Challenge yourself to examine and articulate
what you mean.
What is to be done?
Be sure the terms / concepts are clear to you!
Use the most appropriate term with the most
precise meaning
Remind yourself that no system is perfect & that
there are always characters who will try to
encourage you to THINK less about complex
things
Perhaps you noticed the
omission of “democracy” in
these reflections on
meaning and usage –
The subject for our next session.
30
Making Our World a More
Understandable Place
► “Democracy” and Its Many Meanings
► Challenges to American Objectives:
Grandma’s Recipe for Success
► New & Old Visions of Politics: EU & Nationalism
► Big Countries/Small Countries: Does Size Matter?
► Globalization: Positive & Negative Visions
► Who’s Your Cousin?: Insights from Science &
Genetics
31
Gorbachev on Two Hooligans…
32
Making Our World a More
Understandable Place
► “Democracy” and Its Many Meanings
► Challenges to American Objectives:
Grandma’s Recipe for Success
► New & Old Visions of Politics: EU & Nationalism
► Big Countries/Small Countries: Does Size Matter?
► Globalization: Positive & Negative Visions
► Who’s Your Cousin?: Insights from Science &
Genetics
33
Questions for next time …
What product represents the greatest
VOLUME of US exports?
What percentage of the world’s
languages are at risk of becoming
extinct?
34
Dick Farkas
Professor, Political Science, DePaul University, Chicago
Student of Comparative Politics & International Relations
40 years of University teaching / 37 at DePaul
Most recent book: DEMOCRATIZATION IN THE BALKANS
Current research: Corporate Democracy, Bosnian Constitutional
Design, Political/Historical Novel about American colonial life
(“GYRE”)
Recreational Sailor, zealous traveler (3 circumnavigations)
35
Making Our World a More
Understandable Place
“Democracy” and
Its Many Meanings
36
We believe DEMOCRACY is
Does it make a difference if we are
talking about what it is or what it
ought to be?
Democracy & Sloganeering
Thinking … Really THINKING
about Democracy …
Typical “answers”
Government of the People,
by the People and for the
People
Notions of commonness, engagement, service
Suggests an intimacy between people & gov
Wisdom reside in the majority?
If people don’t engage?
How much service to the public? All the public?
Life, liberty and the pursuit
of happiness
Non-violent; non-coercive
Unlimiting …
Locus of power with individual
Normative …
People choosing their
leaders …
Opportunity or actual?
Choices: control of choices?
How managed are elections?
Who manages elections?
Who actually chooses?
The trouble with elections …
conditions that discount public input
●Designation of constituencies
●Who is enfranchised
●Who is left “voiceless” SMDP vs. PR
●Structuring choices/range, representativeness
●Absence of pluralism/platforms
●Voter turnout
? between elections/elections rationalize neglect
“The people who vote decide
nothing; the people who count the
vote decide everything.”
43
Intellectual sedatives …
Words or phrases that invite us NOT to
think about what they mean !
These fit our lifestyle and pressures because
we have no time to put all ideas under the
microscope.
These are comfortable because “everyone”
knows that there is a division of labor; some
things need to be left to our political
managers.
We know they are guided by the highest
motives !
“Freedom”
Most democracy; least government
Gov is the source of rules & constraint
What political structures create?
create, abridge, deny ?
International Centre for Prison Studies
USA locks up more citizens than any
other country in the world
USA 737 prisoners per 100,000 pop.
2 of every 10 prisoners are “awaiting trial”
1 in every 32 adults is currently in jail, on
probation or on parole
Interpretation?
? More LAW
? More ORDER
? More criminals
? More opportunity
? More motivation: measure man by money
? Fewer personal values, morals
Is there something about democracy
that makes this happen?
47
If DEMOCRAY is to be shared
►Need a clear, workable, adaptable
sense of what it is …
►Recipient leaders will find themselves in
tough situations which juxtapose
many societies’ objectives
►When there is no singularly clear,
correct decision, what can guide
policy-making to insure long-term
“democratic” direction?
Example of the strain …
Norway: decide to subsidize publishers
who publish Norwegian language materials
►Market too small for profit
►Overwhelming majority say culture will be lost
►Publishers want subsidy for all languages
►Majority are against perpetual gov subsidies
►Gov considering veiling policy via tax breaks
►Indigenous languages want same treatment
►Considering assigning decision to indep. commission
The following are the
common premises upon
which the leadership of any
system can hold a steady
course toward democracy
Where do these ideas come from?
50
Tolerance
►NOT a matter of high principle or moral
correctness!
►Essential to competitiveness &
utilization of human capital
►By underscoring inclusion, systems
maximize productivity and creativity
Obligation
►Government mandated to seek out and
mirror public sentiment & pursue
publicly-defined interests
►Usually reflected in architecture of the
system (structures):
legislature, interest groups, media,
elite behavior & rhetoric
Voice
►Channels for accessing government need to
be open, accessible and understood by
the general public
►Can be used intermittently
►Capacity to send a signal; confidence that it
will be heard; potential that it will resonate
with elites
►Must create public space for voice
►Commitment must exist in elites & masses
Constraint
►Those in power understand and accept
that they are constrained to curb
their impulses to exercise authority
►Formal boundaries & added boundaries
to promote balance between
individual and collective interests
►Authorities must feel constrained and
restrained in their conduct
Transparency
►If people are to play some role, must see
WHEN authority is being exercised
►Not natural, must design windows that
can shed light on operations,
decisions and administration
►Commitment to special procedures = key
Legitimacy
►Vision that the governed have of those
in power
►Masses = singular source
►“Achieved power by proper means”
►Public has responsibility to accept or
reject the path to power
►Thereby, scrutinize leadership …
Where does this leave us?
►The US system is not an ideal model
►Culture, history and objective
circumstances REQUIRE that our working
definition be flexible and achievable
►Appropriate intellectual caution about the
use of the term “democracy”
PATHS TO DEMOCRACY
Getting there …
And KNOWING that we are
getting there …
Requisites: as I conceptualize them
►Consensus of Values
(destination)
►Assembled Political Machinery
(vehicle)
►Effective Leadership (driver)
Requisites:
VALUES
►Consensus must emerge
in essence, provides direction
►Specifics:
politics as compromise
politics as not-for-profit undertaking
politics as public service
politics as criticism
+
Genuinely “Democratic” Values
►Tolerance
►Obligation
►Voice
►Constraint
►Transparency
►Legitimacy
(most central / critical)
In the real world, these are NOT always compatible
In those cases, TOLERANCE should prevail.
Speaking to our economic &
political values …
The freest government, if it could exist,
would not be long acceptable if the
tendency of the laws were to create a
rapid accumulation of property in few
hands, and to render the great mass
of the population dependent and
penniless.
Daniel Webster
+
The conflict between capitalism and
democracy is inherent and continuous.
Nehru
Democracy institutionalizes uncertainty.
In this sense, it is compatible with
capitalism.
RPF
63
POLITICAL ARCHITECTURE
Some features:
vehicle
►Designed and routinized relationships
among government institutions (leg/exec, etc.)
►Functional differentiation among levels of
government (especially central / local)
►Civilian led, constrained coercive authorities
►Structures for public input
►Structures for public dialogue
+
Political Architecture:
The US Institutional Model: 10 Structural Elements
●Separation of powers
●Two party system
●Executive: presidency
●Commercial media
●Jury system
●Pluralism
●Litigating society
(focus conflict resolution)
●Term Elections
●Money energized politics
●Undefined
“representation”
POLITICAL LEADERSHIP
driver
● Identified by regular, public orgs
● Management experience
● Dedicated to the public interest
● Forward-facing
● Tolerant of criticism
● Effective public policy makers
● Committed to power limits & term limits
Direction
Vehicle
Driver
Minimal Requisites for
DEMOCRACY !
67
Questions … Comments
68
The tourist and the 3 jars …
69
Making Our World a More
Understandable Place
► Challenges to American Objectives:
Grandma’s Recipe for Success
► New & Old Visions of Politics: EU & Nationalism
► Big Countries/Small Countries: Does Size Matter?
► Globalization: Positive & Negative Visions
► Who’s Your Cousin?: Insights from Science &
Genetics
70
Questions for next time …
What country has the highest
percentage of its population on
FACEBOOK?
Which country is the largest owner of
US federal government debt?
71
Dick Farkas
Professor, Political Science, DePaul University, Chicago
Student of Comparative Politics & International Relations
40 years of University teaching / 37 at DePaul
Most recent book: DEMOCRATIZATION IN THE BALKANS
Current research: Corporate Democracy, Bosnian Constitutional
Design, Political/Historical Novel about American colonial life
(“GYRE”)
Recreational Sailor, zealous traveler (3 circumnavigations)
72
Challenges to American
Objectives in the 21st Century
“Grandma’s recipe for success”
79% of Americans polled agree that
“It’s good that American ideas and
customs are spreading around the
world.”
Pew Global Attitudes
Less than 40% of Europeans polled endorse the
spread of American ideas and customs.
74
Core problems …
►We embrace rhetoric without thinking
(intellectual sedatives)
►We succumb to embellished self-images
►We find comfort in “them” and “us” portraits of reality
►We have a classically youthful sense of invincibility
►We don’t perceive leaders as learners
►We show little respect for foreign methods / ideas
(because, after all, “everyone wants to come here”)
What Grandma knows …
►“Grandma” euphemism for those that
immigrated here
►That immigrant experience validated
different cultures and behaviors
►It also underlined the imperfect nature
of American society
►So, structuring life behavior for success
became a matter of simple values -Propose to examine some …
Real source of the prescriptions ?
►Perhaps the stark colonial life of
Poor Richard’s Almanac
►Perhaps the forced adaptation of new
immigrants
►Perhaps the keen insight of persons
living in a world they knew that they
couldn’t fully comprehend
PRESCRIPTIONS based upon
considerable empirical work
In other words, suggestions of what
OUGHT to be based upon an
examination of what IS.
78
Tend to your own house first
►US model of development resonates
with the rest of the world only to the
extent that American resources are
consistently dedicated to our people
and their needs
►Neglect suggests hypocrisy
►Key values: tolerance,
individual choice, and transparency
A penny saved is a penny earned
►In comparative terms, America has
extraordinary financial capacity …
►The World sees this as:
“money makes right”
►Developing weapons because we can
and engaging other societies because
we can is perceived by significant
numbers as obscene and abusive
+
►The reality is that prudent management of
American resources would dictate that more
budget restraint would yield more results
►Without deficits, overspending and
blatant budget manipulation, US foreign policy
options would be greater
►The clearest way for a government to
demonstrate restraint and signal intent to the
world community is through its budget
Always keep a dollar
in your pocket
►This simple prescription builds on the
previous point.
►If a government maintains surpluses,
it has the flexibility and capacity to deal
with unanticipated circumstances and
emergency situations
►The logic and wisdom is inescapable!
+
In sharp contrast …
We are creating a deficit hole for many
future generations by –
►Protracted war related costs
►Weapons systems to counter no threat
►Attempting to create a role for the US
as political architect of the world
Perspective … “a trillion”
million, billion, trillion
Think about seconds on a clock …
► 1,000 seconds ago was 17 minutes ago
► 1,000,000 seconds was about 12 days ago
► 1,000,000,000 seconds…about 32 years ago
► 1,000,000,000,000 seconds was almost
32000 years ago
84
“The death of one man is a
tragedy;
The death of one million men is a
statistic”
Josef Stalin
85
Self praise stinks
►Resonates for me personally …
►Simplest of notions … the world will
view self-promotion with skepticism,
distrust and revulsion
►If strengths are evident, others will
recognize (and cite)
►US should not need to be emulated to
be confident about it own path!
He that speaks much, is much mistaken
Ben Franklin 1736
►Again, building on the former thought …
►Our world is buried in an avalanche of
political rhetoric … dulling media and
ever-sharper indictments
►Imitation is the highest form of flattery
BUT only if it is democratically driven
by genuine internal desire by a
society
+
Mea culpa
►Some would certainly observe that professors
are a classic example of this danger
►I agree and embrace that valid criticism
►Nonetheless, as a society projecting
ourselves to the world-at-large, we would
do well to restrain our rhetoric and
redouble our performance !
Being kind is more important
than being right.
►It follows, then, that actions do speak
louder than words …
►Democracy has many meanings but
certainly one that all people can embrace
is ‘a system that does more for people
than it does to them.’
►The humanistic example may be more
impressive than the legal, political or
economic
+
The right to do something
does not mean that doing it
is right.
Safire
Tsunami Relief is a classic case of
positive foreign policy, largely insulated
from the world’s skepticism about our
motives
Guantanamo may be an example of
what Safire is pointing toward …
One should keep his words both soft and
tender, because tomorrow he may have to
eat them.
►History informs us that empires wane
►Add to this, our world shrinks
►Given that America is a compulsively forwardthinking society, we more than most should
understand that delicacy of language and
overt treatment of our friends and foes will
serve as the best insurance for our future
►Do unto others as you would have them do
unto you
Speak softly and carry a big stick
TR
►Speak softly … essence of humility &
manifestation of confidence
►Big stick …
nuclear weapons changed the equation
– 21st Century “stick” is :
economics and education
TR first American recipient of
Nobel Peace Prize (1906)
If life was fair, Elvis would be alive and
all the impersonators would be dead.
Johnny Carson
►Explicitly, our world is not constructed around
a broad conception of FAIRNESS …
►Americans seem unable to imagine
themselves as anything other than gracious,
kind, giving and helpful people – therefore,
we should be loved and admired
►Others see us a tough, driven, insensitive to
differences and messianic
A fanatic is one who can’t change his
mind and won’t change the subject.
Churchill
►To both friend and foe, our policies seem to
emulate the characterization above …
►The adamant quality, unflinching confidence
and sermon-like rhetoric simply define
arrogance and superiority
►The world is prone to ask, “If our world
changes so rapidly and the elements of
power are so diverse, how can America be so
SURE that it has the only answers?”
Guidelines for successful people:
►Set achievable goals
►Insure resources to support quest
►Adapt and adjust as required
Simple, clear & challenging …
PUSH BACK …
● How well do these concepts travel?
● Five select factors …
►history
►religion
►technology & suspicion
►capitalism vs. sharing
►21st Century global politics
History
Epoch of European colonial empires
Cold War epoch
War on Terrorism epoch
►What characteristic is shared by these?
―> the powerful imposing values / systems!
►Lowers credibility in target countries
Irony: real impulse not to institutionalize real
democracy because diminishes control
Religion
►Central problem is NOT any particular
religion (i.e. ISLAM)
►Religion is an awkward platform for
democracy because it challenges
the notion of man’s control which is
embedded in democratic theory
►Higher AUTHORITY prescribes
behavior
Technology & Suspicion
►Technology by definition changes its
environment … including unintended
consequences … political technologies
►Importing countries are duly suspicious
of the motives of exporters …
Trojan horse analogy
►Technological creation and absorption
are unevenly configured (biased)
to advantage the exporter
Capitalism & Sharing
●The essentially raw nature of capitalist
motives – profiting and self-enhancement
raise fundamental issues of suspicion for
importers
●Sharing is not a capitalist precept
●If democracy will level the playing field in
politics; certainly capitalism will do little to
level economics
21st Century Global Politics
● Unilateralism & democracy are neither
compatible nor logically consistent
● Democracy is being exported because
the US & the Europeans can export it;
raw power manipulation
● Should wait for indigenous pressure
and desire
Final Analysis
Very complex; we will observe
apparently contradictory impulses …
Requires significant flexibility by mentors
►“Democracy” may and should LOOK
different one from the other
Where the European Union has a role, it
is engineering requisites for membership
►values, architecture & leadership◄
Old Russian parable …
A small bird is frozen in a Siberian snow
storm …
103
104
Making Our World a More
Understandable Place
► New & Old Visions of Politics: EU & Nationalism
► Big Countries/Small Countries: Does Size Matter?
► Globalization: Positive & Negative Visions
► Who’s Your Cousin?: Insights from Science &
Genetics
105
Questions for next time …
What percentage of professional
athletes are from “abroad?”
NBA? MLB? English Premier League?
In which country do “academics” earn
the highest income relative to the
national average?
106
Making Our World a More
Understandable Place
New Visions in Politics:
European Union &
Ethnic Nationalism
107
“National Pride”
% of people “very proud” of their nationality
Iran
Philippines
Egypt
Mexico
Vietnam
*Ireland
92%
85%
81%
80%
78%
74%
US
*Poland
India
*UK
*Denmark
*France
72%
71%
71%
49%
48%
40%
108
“POLITICS”
►social process
►rivalry & cooperation
►making of a decision
►binding on a group
POLITICS is a social process involving rivalry
and cooperation culminating in the making
of a decision binding on a group.
POLITICS = managing people for purpose
109
Think about your “feeling” about
the following terms …
□ administer, manage
◘ manipulate, force
□ direct, lead
◘ order, control
110
Integrative Forces
►Challenge from massive corporations
seeking consistency & exercising
mobility
►Economies of scale
►Composite human resources
►Cost of governing
►Prospects for stability & peace
111
Disintegrative Forces
►Nationalism
►History
►Fear
►Mythology of homogeneity
►Political power – Yugoslav example
►Search for profits
►Other ?
“state”
“sovereign state”
►government has ultimate authority to
make decisions binding upon all those
within the boundaries of that entity
►… country
► not what Americans call “states”
113
“Nation”
UNIQUE:
history, culture, language, religion, music,
art, dance, preferences for color, race,
behavioral and physical characteristics,
values …
And when the argument isn’t complete, all
gaps are filled with mythology !
114
Classic Characteristics of
European Ethno-nationalism
● Claim both that their people are superior and
are (have been) victimized
● Frame their political ideas around selective
visions of history
● Claim that membership is not a choice; blood
determines a nationalist’s identity
● Narrative always dwells on chosen traumas
and chosen glories
● Seek to dominate or eliminate minorities
Americans’ BLURRED View
of Nationalism
Nationalism vs. Patriotism / Nation State
“US policymakers generally fail to
appreciate the power of nationalism in
other societies and have demonstrated
neither skill nor sensitivity in dealing
with its manifestations abroad.”
Pei, Carnegie
116
Global Hatred Index
4000 Internet Sites
Targets: 35% anti-American
32% anti-Semitic
20% anti-Islamic
Fodder for nationalism / emotional appeals
117
NATIONALISM …
► force rationalizing the break-up of
sovereign states
► common revolutionary theme often
coupled with anti-colonialism
► fear of others; xenophobia
► “ethnic cleansing” (genocide)
► proliferation of states
? Giving “nationalism” a bad rap ?
INCLUSIVE vs. EXCLUSIVE
118
In sharp contrast, forces
working to INTEGRATE …
To create ever larger political entities that
embrace the advantages outlined earlier
of greater size. NAFTA, SEATO,
ASIEN, and the EUROPEAN UNION
119
Genesis of European Integration
Jean Monnet & “Europeanists”
►European Coal & Steel Community
►European Economic Community
►European Community
►European Union ‘92
120
European Union
IN
●Germany
●France
●UK
●Belgium
●Netherlands
●Italy
●Spain
●Portugal
●Ireland
●Greece
●Malta
●Cyprus
●Sweden
●Denmark
●Finland
● Slovenia
● Poland
● Hungary
● Czech Repl.
● Slovak Repl.
● Lithuania
●*East Germ.
● Latvia
● Estonia
● Romania
● Bulgaria
NOT IN
Russia
Ukraine
Moldova
-- Switzerland
-- Norway
Aspiring …
◘ Iceland
◘ Croatia
◘ Turkey
□ Serbia
□ Macedonia
□ Montenegro
□ Albania
□ Bosnia
□ Kosovo
candidate
candidate
candidate
aspiring
aspiring
aspiring
aspiring
aspiring
aspiring
122
EU 2010
123
EU Political Architecture
Functional (not yet “constitutional”) First Ten Years
Commission
Council of Ministers
20 persons 2 each from largest 5
1 each from others
5 year terms/loyalty to EU
Functions as EXE CUTIVE:
rule application
all policy initiatives
agenda setting
87 reps from national governments
Different persons depending upon issue
Functions as LEGISLATURE:
"brake“
Decision by "qualified majority"
61 of 87
Parliament
Elected from constituencies: 626
Functions as "conscience of the people"
IF inaction assumed to concur
:
IF amends, Council must consider in 1 month
IF rejects, Council can overrule w/unanimity
Passes on all policies
Genesis of EU Architecture
2002 Convention of the Future of Europe
Components: Council of Ministers
European Commission
EU President
EU Foreign Minister
European Parliament
125
EU Architecture
Council of Ministers
►Main decision-making
institution
►Ministers from member
states
►Functionally differentiated
►Qualified majority -weighted votes
►“255 of 345” &
62% pop support
European Commission
► Executive
►15* appointed by
member states on
rotating basis
126
EU President
EU Foreign Minister
►Leaders of
member states
elect a president
for up to two 30
month terms
►Combine current “external
relations” with “high
representative for
common foreign policy”
►Becomes the chief foreign
policy spokesperson for
EU
127
European Parliament
► Elected by the citizens in the member
states in constituencies of equal
numbers
► Shares legislative & budgetary
authority with Council
► Supervises the Commission
► Last & perhaps weakest player in
policy-making
128
Implications … for our world
Political system DESIGNED for the 21st
century and the challenges of policy
making … response to
► Complexity
► Need for speed
► Media’s influence on public attitudes
► Lobbying & money in politics
129
US –European Relationship
►Cousins … common values!
►Comparable size: pop, econ, human res
►? Capacity to meet challenges /
efficiency of policy-making
130
The peasant with too many
children …
131
Puzzle in a box …
132
Making Our World a More
Understandable Place
► Big Countries/Small Countries: Does Size Matter?
► Globalization: Positive & Negative Visions
► Who’s Your Cousin?: Insights from Science &
Genetics
133
Questions for next time …
How many people worldwide suffer
from chronic hunger?
What percentage of the world’s trade is
carried on ships?
134
What five countries own the
bulk of the world’s ships?
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Greece
Japan
Germany
China
Russia
Flags: Panama, China, Liberia, Malta,
Cyprus
135
Dick Farkas
Professor, Political Science, DePaul University, Chicago
Student of Comparative Politics & International Relations
40 years of University teaching / 37 at DePaul
Most recent book: DEMOCRATIZATION IN THE BALKANS
Current research: Corporate Democracy, Bosnian Constitutional
Design, Political/Historical Novel about American colonial life
(“GYRE”)
Recreational Sailor, zealous traveler (3 circumnavigations)
136
Making Our World a More
Understandable Place
Big Countries / Small Countries:
Does Size Matter?
137
Proliferation of “States”
► End World War II; 47 sovereign states
► Today, 206 sovereign states
► Last fifteen, smaller than Chicago in
economy & population
► Wilsonian thesis:
“self-determination of peoples”
► Who decides what a “people” is?
138
Challenges for New States
Especially small ones …
Military Defense
Control of Borders (relations given genesis)
Revenue Generation
Human Capital
Market Appeal to Others / Investors
Vulnerability to Nature
Vulnerability to Suppliers
139
Good News … for small states
►Feels Cohesive
►Small Population to Manage
►Small Population to Provide Services
►Ease of Communication
140
What Prospects?
for an independent …
Istria
Gran Canaria
Puerto Rico
Hawaii
Kosovo
Croatia
(“Our Land”)
141
Small States / Some New
“Microstates”
Kiribati, Liechtenstein, Marshall Islands,
Monaco, Nauru, Palau, Tuvalu – all smaller than
100,000 pop & smaller than RI
► not militarily defensible
► vulnerable to natural disasters
► vulnerable to external economic shocks
► less attractive to investment for production
NOT ECONOMICALLY VIABLE
142
What one would NOT know if living in a
NEW, small state – starter list
►who would rule the state?
►what will the taxes be?
►can I start a business?
►Who will control economy (many dimensions)
►Who can be a citizen?
►What sorts of mobility do I have?
►Who has access to education?
►Do I have to serve in the military?
►Are my credentials good in our neighboring states?
►What RIGHTS do I have?
143
Singular Advantage
“Sell sovereignty” to …
Rich states: exchange support / votes in
international organizations or commissions
for aid, assistance or recognition …
Corporations: domain names (CCTLD)
(Turks & Caicos/Tonga/Tuvalu/Moldova/Niue)
Criminal groups: phone sex, phone scams,
money laundering (Nauru), drug cartels
144
European Union
IN
●Germany
●France
●UK
●Belgium
●Netherlands
●Italy
●Spain
●Portugal
●Ireland
●Greece
●Malta
●Cyprus
●Sweden
●Denmark
●Finland
● Slovenia
● Poland
● Hungary
● Czech Repl.
● Slovak Repl.
● Lithuania
●*East Germ.
● Latvia
● Estonia
● Romania
● Bulgaria
NOT IN
Russia
Ukraine
Moldova
-- Switzerland
-- Norway
Aspiring …
◘ Iceland
◘ Croatia
◘ Turkey
□ Serbia
□ Macedonia
□ Montenegro
□ Albania
□ Bosnia
□ Kosovo
candidate
accepted 2013
candidate
aspiring
aspiring
aspiring
aspiring
aspiring
aspiring
146
What are they seeking?
Former Communist countries …
values, architecture, leadership
destination, vehicle, driver
Others … advantages of size & stability
especially but not exclusively economic;
models for policy-making; behaviors
147
Largest Sovereign States
2011
Russia, Canada, China, USA,
Brazil, Australia, Argentina,
EU, Indonesia, India
148
Intrinsic ADVANTAGES of Size
► “Defensible”
conventional / not nuclear or terrorism
► Substantial HUMAN RESOURCES
► Substantial “natural” resources
► Significant markets
► Attractive venues for investment
► More & diverse production yielding
lower vulnerability to external forces
149
Intrinsic CHALLENGES of Size
► Create modicum of tolerance in order
to deal with diversity
► Prone to invest in defense / borders
► Providing services to large population
►Challenge of creating a government
with a centralized-decentralized balance
key: relationship between center & parts
150
Emerging Markets
Most dramatically growing markets =
magnet for investment interest
BRIC Brazil, Russia, India, China
BRICT add Turkey
Large countries at “similar stages of newly
advanced economic development”
151
B.R.I.C.
Represent a “shift in economic power”
away from G-7 surpass by 2032
By 2050, BRIC economies will eclipse the
combined economies of the richest
countries of the world. Goldman Sachs
BRIC = ¼ world’s land; 40% population
152
B.R.I.C.
Indications are that they are “seeking to
form a ‘political club’ or alliance” thereby
converting their economic power into
geo-political power. ‘09 Yekaterinburg summit
►China’s economy did surpass Germany’s in 2007.
did surpass Japan in 2010
will surpass USA by 2027
153
B.R.I.C.
►India’s growth rate is higher than China
will surpass Japan by 2032
►BRIC currencies will appreciate by 300% over
the next 50 years boosting investors in
BRIC assets
►Taken together, in 40 years BRIC will be
larger than the US & European economies
►By 2025, BRIC brings over 200 million more
people (w incomes over $15,000) into the
world economy (more than Germ, FR, UK combined)
154
GDP in 2050
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
China
USA
India
Brazil
Mexico
Russia
Indonesia
8. Japan
9. UK
10. Germany
155
GDP in 2050
with “macrostates”
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
China
USA/Canada/Mexico
European Union
India
Brazil
Indonesia
Japan
156
Predictions
C.B.I. -- become dominant global suppliers of
manufactured goods & services
B.R. -- dominant suppliers of raw materials
B. -- only country with “capacity to continue all
elements simultaneously”
C. -- Will have the largest equity market
capitalization by 2032
157
Shift in Relationship with IMF
► Brazil & Russia both previous
recipients of IMF support
► Recently Brazil offered $10B
► Russia announced intent to offer $10B
► China announced intent to invest $50.1B
NET LENDERS!
158
BRIC formula …?
Since end of the Cold War, stressed
simultaneous reforms in:
►EDUCATION
►FOREIGN INVESTMENT
►DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION
►DOMESTIC ENTREPRENEURSHIP
159
BRIC Weaknesses
►Brazil = relatively SOLID
►Russia & China NOT
“full bodied democracies”
Both threatened by disintegration
► India insecure by way of POOR
relations with neighboring states
160
11 other countries could replace the BRIC
(Goldman Sachs)
WSJ article identifies:
NIMVIT
Nigeria, Iran, Mexico, Vietnam,
Indonesia, and Turkey
161
Does Size Matter?
Think so …
In our globalized world with an everaccelerating pace of change and with
“capital” the MOST mobile commodity in
our world …
SMALL IS NOT BEAUTIFUL.
162
Questions? Comments?
163
3 Ph.D.s & 3 Lawyers off to
a conference …
164
Questions for next time …
In the WTO’s 15 years of operation,
which country has made the most
trade complaints?
What percentage of Americans are
self-described “isolationists?”
165
Making Our World a More
Understandable Place
► Globalization: Positive & Negative Visions
► Who’s Your Cousin?: Insights from Science
& Genetics
166
Dick Farkas
Professor, Political Science, DePaul University, Chicago
Student of Comparative Politics & International Relations
40 years of University teaching / 36 at DePaul
Most recent book: DEMOCRATIZATION IN THE BALKANS
Current research: Corporate Democracy, Bosnian Constitutional
Design, Political/Historical Novel about American colonial life
(“GYRE”)
Recreational Sailor, zealous traveler (3 circumnavigations)
167
Making Our World a More
Understandable Place
Globalization:
Positive and Negative Visions
168
“Globalization”
“The integration of everything with everything
else.”
Thomas Friedman
“Walls are gone … can’t be reconstructed.” TF
The integration of markets, finance, and technology in a way that
shrinks the world from a size medium to a size small.
Globalization affects everyone but quite differently in different
places.
Secret: the way to succeed in globalization is to focus on the
fundamentals – reading, writing, arithmetic.
169
“More complexity leads to more instability”
Robert Kaplan
“Globalization is not the good news; it’s
just the news.”
RK
Poverty does not lead to revolutions – development does.
170
Globalization:
New Term, Old Dynamic
History
World Bank, IMF, GATT
Acceleration
WTO
Debt
171
Who are the players?
►Political players
states, sub-state players, NGOs, interest groups,
individuals, media
►Economic players
consumers, producers, states, other states,
enterprises, elites, regional-global organizations
criminal organizations
►Social players
religious organizations, moral leaders,
revolutionaries, philosophers
What tools does a state
system (government) have to
manage an economy?
● Control rate at which people save
● Maintain competition among companies
● Increase education
● Increase mobility
● Develop new technology
● Redistribute wealth
“Capitalism” = driving force
►Logic of costs & payoffs
►Dynamic & adaptive
►Individual motivation / incentives
►Choices
►Inequality
►Profit-centered
+
More “Capitalism”
►Efficiency
►Preponderance of non State ownership
►Competition / pluralism
►Markets / demand
John Maynard Keynes,
“Capitalism is the extraordinary belief
that the nastiest of men for the
nastiest of motives will somehow
work for the benefit of all.”
176
“Markets”
►Characterized by the exchange of goods and
services
►Who influences “MARKETS?”
consumers, producers, states, other states,
enterprises, elites, regional and global
organizations
Marketeers & the Problems
They Create
Hedging, Swaps, Options, Derivatives,
Index trading, Junk bonds …
“Casino” Capital
“Pinball” Capital = money invested in
short-term speculative places
178
Corporate Consolidation &
Control
Does GLOBALIZATION endow massive
MNCs with power beyond any state?
► Does become a competing identity.
► Does force recognition of new actors.
► Does enable shifting operations to the
disadvantage of sovereign states
179
“Giant Corporations Gain
Immense Power”
Not clear …
the proportion of output from big
companies has declined!
Advantage to challengers / competitors –
new technology; capital; fewer barriers;
easier market access
180
Globalization & “CULTURE”
►What is it? How defined?
economically, linguistically, artistically,
politically, intellectually
►Is there good culture and bad culture?
►Is there high culture and low culture?
►Are there inferior cultures?
►Is it something to be maintained?
►Does something or somebody THREATEN
culture?
►Who generates culture?
Homogenizing CULTURE
Superficial behaviors or deeply rooted change?
►Pizza example
►China: business culture seeping into the CP
182
GLOBALIZATION
● Linking and/or Leveling
or something else?
● Dependency: real
● Debt: creates shared interests
● Risk: spread
● Poverty: ebb & flow; not diminished
● Engineering change: without GLOBAL
perspective
The many dimensions of
GLOBALIZATION
► Political: IOs, treaties, gov interface
►Technological: internet, communication
►Personal: travel, tourism, ex-pats
►Economic: trade, investment, capital flows
►Education: study abroad, foreign students,
academic exchange, joint research
184
GLOBALIZATION Balance Sheet
The Arguments …
NEGATIVE
Lost jobs
Lost cultural identity
Lost democratic rights
Lost clean air & water
Triumph of giant
companies
POSITIVE
Mobility to sell labor / ideas
Webs of dependency
Mutual interests→ stability
Non-violent mechanisms for
conflict resolution
Knowledge & awareness →
vehicle for engagement
185
Globalization & Language
6800 known living languages
Roughly 1000+ languages in the Pacific & Americas
Roughly 2000+
230 in Europe
in Asia & Africa
Chinese most spoken today
By 2050: Chinese 3X English; Hindi-Urdu, Spanish &
Arabic will catch up to English
English will remain the language of global commerce
186
Forms of Dependency
►Products
►Finances
►Currency
►Markets
►Exchanges
►Alliances
Measuring GLOBALIZATION
The ACADEMIC answer …
Economic integration: trade & FDI
Technological connectivity: internet users,
internet hosts, secure servers
Personal contact: travel, communication,
remittances
Political engagement: membership &
support for IOs, treaties, peacekeeping
188
Leaders … in globalization
Political: Austria
Technological: USA
Personal: Switzerland
Economic: Ireland
Overall ranking: Ireland, Singapore,
Switzerland
+
189
Next two tiers …
Netherlands, Finland, Canada, USA, New
Zealand, Austria, Denmark, Sweden,
UK, Australia, Czech Republic, France,
Portugal, Norway, Germany, Slovenia,
Malaysia
European & small (perspective altered by EU)
190
Broadly linear pattern
►Life Expectancy & Globalization
Countries with longer life expectancy are
also those with higher globalization
rankings
→ Not causal relationship
191
Globalization &
Religious Participation
Top half …
No correlation except in Ireland, USA,
Portugal, Spain
Places where religious participation
surpasses globalization: Italy, Slovakia,
Portugal, Spain
192
Globalization &
Religious Participation
(bottom half)
In ALL countries religious participation far
exceeds globalization except in China,
Russia, Ukraine, Taiwan, South Korea
Correlation: Less globalization/more
religious participation – NOT CAUSAL
193
Religion Changing
Religion intensifies with development &
urbanization. Responds to economic
change with stricter premises. RK
194
Globalization &
Gender-related Development
Clear linear correlation:
More globalization → women “better off”
195
Bottom 10
Least Globalized: (in the study of 62)
Iran, India, Egypt, Indonesia, Venezuela,
China, Bangladesh, Turkey, Kenya, Brazil
196
Questions & Comments
197
Groucho on UNIVERSITIES :
198
Making Our World a More
Understandable Place
► Who’s Your Cousin?:
Insights from Science & Genetics
199
Questions for next time …
Which country has the highest
percentage of women in parliament?
How much water does it take to
produce the food an average person
eats in a day?
200
Making Our World a More
Understandable Place
Who’s Your Cousin?
201
Scientist or Humanist?
If new information generated carefully and
responsibly suggested a reality that is
new to you, would you …
(a) Believe it because it was scientifically
established (scientist)
(b) Believe whatever you did before
because it complies with your personal
experiences (humanist)
202
Seven Daughters of Eve
Bryan Sykes, The Science that Reveals
Our Genetic Ancestry
DNA & the Genome
The DNA in every cell of our bodies
carries a message from our ancestors
Genetic material reveals clues to the
whole history of the human race
203
Conclusion:
“To my astonishment, we are all connected
through our mothers to only a handful of
women living ten thousand years ago.”
“Iceman” was found in the Alps frozen
5000 years ago. Sykes found a person
with identical DNA; his own lab worker!
204
All persons living today with
a European heritage, have
an unbroken genetic link to
just seven women.
►At least 650 million people are direct
maternal ancestors of just seven women
►17,000 years ago (Ice Age) only
survivable on edge of Med
►”founder sequences” date back 45,000 yrs
205
DNA
Deoxyribonucleic Acid
►like two long coils of intertwined string
►”double helix”
►four components: nucleotide bases
►A adrenine; C cytosine; G guanine; T thymine
►DNA doesn’t do anything !!
►It directs proteins to do things; different
sequences send different instructions.
206
Example:
● One million cells in each hair follicle
● Every cell has full set of DNA
● DNA instructs what hair to make (triplets)
● Cells “read” instructions; produce specific
kind of keratin which becomes hair
207
“objectively defined races
simply do not exist”
“The temptation to classify the human species
into categories which have no objective basis
is an inevitable but regrettable consequence
of the gene frequency system when it is taken
too far. For several years the study of human
genetics got firmly bogged down in the
intellectually pointless (and morally
dangerous) morass of constructing ever more
detailed classifications of human population
groups.”
208
In Essence,
We spent so much time searching for
differences that we neglected that
the science tells us there are
overwhelming similarities!
Any two common house flies or any two
penguins have ten times more variation
between them than any two human beings.
209
Mitochondrial DNA passes
only from mother to daughter.
Many more than the seven women lived
simultaneously but only those seven
had daughters who had daughters who
had daughters, etc.
Looking beyond Europe …
26 other “clans” in the world for a total of
33 worldwide! 13 still in Africa (40%)
210
More remarkable …
Genetics tells us: THE mitochondrial “Eve”
● Lived in Kenya or Ethiopia
● Never left Africa but off-spring did
►the woman Sykes calls “Lara”
● & the rest of the world can trace its
ancestry back to Lara. Therefore, only
one of the 13 African clans accounts for
the rest of the world!
211
Sequence of Human
Population revealed …
Africa → Near East → Europe → Southern
Asian rim → Northern Asia expanse
→ North America → South America
→ East Asia (Japan)
→ Southeast Asia
4 genetic clans dominate North America
(that is native Americans) 5000 tribes
MIGRATIONS were very small (few dozen)
212
Sykes on the significance …
“DNA is the messenger … handed down
from generation to generation. I feel a
strong connection. These are all my
mothers who passed this precious
messenger from one to another through
a thousand births, a thousand screams,
a thousand embraces of a thousand
new-born babies. The thread becomes
an umbilical cord.”
213
“When two people find out they are in the
same clan they often experience this
feeling of connection… We share DNA
… We use it constantly! Cells in every
tissue are reading the message it
carries and carrying out its instructions
millions of times a second. Every atom
of oxygen we take into our bodies has
to be processed according to the
formula that has been handed to us by
our ancestors.”
214
“DNA is the very instrument that
reconnects us with the
mysteries of our deep past and
enhances rather than
diminishes our sense of self.”
215
So … Who’s Your Cousin?
Everybody in this room
Everybody on this ship
Everybody!
216
Are you enough “scientist” to
embrace an idea that seems
to fly in the face of your own
life experience?
217
Prescriptions for MAKING
THE WORLD A MORE
UNDERSTANDABLE PLACE
►Use political language with forethought & care
►Recognize that “democracy” can take many forms
►Am objectives are best served with humility & attention to
simple principles
►Recognize & resist Nationalism -- a conflict producing force
►Macro-states & Micro-states have a different trajectory in
the contemporary world; embrace the advantages of size
►Globalization changes the game in ways hard to predict
►We are far more similar to one another than we readily
perceive or admit
218
Do the EMPIRICAL homework!
Create achievable objectives
Muster resources to enable
success
219
Perceptions vs. Reality
►% of US budget going to foreign aid?
►US share of development aid given by wealthy
countries to poor countries?
►% of Bosnian peacekeeping forces / are American?
►UN total budget?
US public perceptions =
20%
33%
50%
$40B
less than 1%
16%
18%
$10B
220
Reflection on the women we
love …
If a man is standing in the middle of a
forest speaking and there is no
woman around to hear him …
221
My very own take on:
RESULTS IN AMERICA
1. Politicians plant an idea …
2. The media fertilize it …
3. Academics piss on it …
GROWTH results!
222
“A ship in harbor is safe, but
that’s not what ships are for.”
John Shedd
223
Final thought …
Don’t just float through life,
make waves!
224
Books & Documentaries
Volkan, BLOODLINES
Farkas, DEMCORATIZATION IN THE BALKANS
O’Neill, INSURGENCY & TERRORISM
Sykes, THE SEVEN DAUGHTERS OF EVE
Ellwood, THE NO-NONSENSE GUIDE TO
GLOBALIZATION
Barker, THE NO-NONSENSE GUIDE TO GLOBAL
TERRORISM
Drakulic, HOW WE SURVIVED COMMUNISM & EVEN
LAUGHED
Documentary: RACE: The Power of an Illusion (Part 2)
Documentary Series: Of Blood and Belonging (5 parts)
225
Thank you for permitting
me to be a part of your
cruise holiday!
Safe travel …
Dick Farkas
226
Books & Documentaries
Volkan, BLOODLINES
Farkas, DEMCORATIZATION IN THE BALKANS
O’Neill, INSURGENCY & TERRORISM
Sykes, THE SEVEN DAUGHTERS OF EVE
Ellwood, THE NO-NONSENSE GUIDE TO
GLOBALIZATION
Barker, THE NO-NONSENSE GUIDE TO GLOBAL
TERRORISM
Drakulic, HOW WE SURVIVED COMMUNISM & EVEN
LAUGHED
Documentary: RACE: The Power of an Illusion (Part 2)
Documentary Series: Of Blood and Belonging (5 parts)
227
228
“nation”
 ethno-cultural
identity of a group
 common culture, language, history,
religion, physical and/or behavioral
characteristics, race, images, myths
 … a people
 commonness found “in the blood”
229
nation – state
 key:
boundaries …
 “nation-state”
“multi-state nation”
“multi-national state”
 allegiance / identity to state:
PATRIOTISM
 allegiance / identity to nation:
NATIONALISM
230
Growth of government linked to:
 Rise
in wealth, revenue, capacity
 Demands by the citizens
 “Natural” bureaucratic tendencies
 World more complicated place
 Electoral politics
231
Sources of Legitimacy
 Legitimacy
by RESULTS
 Legitimacy by IDENTITY
 Legitimacy by PROCEDURES
 Legitimacy by HABIT
Evaluate: professor
mother
mayor
232
Designs of Government
 Federal
or unitary
 Centralized or de-centralized
233
PARLIAMENTARY GOVERNMENT
Characteristics
 Elected
parliament (large)
 Sovereign
 Executive power in Cabinet
 Cabinet power ONLY as long as
retains “confidence”
 Cabinet members remain in parliament
 PM can “dissolve” parliament
234
“Representation”
 DELEGATE
mirror constituent views …
upside – downside?
 TRUSTEE
invest in official’s judgment
upside – downside?
 What’s wrong with a “mix?”
235
“spreading democracy is
dangerous”
Rhetoric assumes …
►system is applicable in standardized (Western) form
►it can succeed anywhere
►it can remedy today’s transnational dilemmas
►it can bring peace; rather than sow disorder
236
Elections do not guarantee any particular
political result!
Elections do not even guarantee their
own perpetuation
237
Why are we seduced to
believe …
“Globalization” – if technology, work,
products and language is homogenized,
why not political institutions?
Bloodshed & chaos appeal for new order
Examples of external military power
quelling violence
US techno-military superiority translates
to superiority of our political model
238
The use of traveling is to regulate
imagination by reality, and instead of
thinking how things may be, to see them
as they are.”
Samuel Johnson
239
Doctors & Lawyers off to a
conference …
240
“You have to remember one thing about
the ‘will of the people.’ Just a couple of
years ago we were swept away by the
Macarena!”
Jon Stewart
241
“Human beings who are almost
unique in having the ability to learn
from the experience of others, are
also remarkable for their apparent
disinclination to do so.”
Douglas Adams
242
Difference between the
“Conservative” and the
“Liberal”
There is a drowning man roughly 20 feet from
the shore …
The CONSERVATIVE throws him a 15 foot line
The LIBERAL throws a 30 foot line and when
the drowning man grabs it, the LIBERAL lets
go and goes to do other good works …
243
The purpose of education is to
replace an empty mind with an
open one.
Malcolm Forbes
244
The Policy-making “Puzzle”
Framework:
known knowns
known unknowns
unknown unknowns
What follows are mostly KNOWN KNOWNS
245