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Fallacy of the Log-Normal Approximation to
Fallacy of the Log-Normal Approximation to

... in cases where the latter was shown to be inconsistent with the max-cxpcctcd-log criterion. For some writers. it was a case of simple errors in reasoning: they mistakenly thought that the sure-thing principle sanctified the new criterion.’ For others, an indefinitely large probability ofdoing bcttcr ...
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... loan loss provisions, although income also remains weak. Although it is difficult to speak with any certainty, the run-up to the Brexit vote at the end of Q2, in addition to other headwinds affecting the European economy, are likely to have had a stifling effect on businesses and investment. Whether ...
modeling the optimal strategy in an incomplete market
modeling the optimal strategy in an incomplete market

... initial strategy in this algorithm because it requires fewer steps to converge to the optimal strategy than random initial strategies. We show numerically that the optimal and myopic portfolio process are better than the portfolio for an agent who ignores the endowment risk he/she cannot hedge. For ...
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... volatility of GDP and inflation A base scenario is set where there is no reaction of the monetary policy to DTD, but GDP and exchange rate still react to it. Shocks to DTD could be understood as shocks to risk appetite. Starting from a Base Model a higher reaction to DTD and lower endogeneity are te ...
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... 120) and Germany (Universität Mannheim, n = 120) who were asked to respond to a series of judgment and decision tasks related to financial investing, in return for a payment of $10 in the United States or 15 DM in Germany. Average response time was about an hour. The response rate was 58% in German ...
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SAST - SA JPMorgan MFS Core Bond Portfolio Summary

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... lowed some other risk factors other than the market risk. However all of these models explicitly assume the rationality of economic agents. In this tradition, we have two main implications. First, all the economic agents look at the economic phenomena in the same way as they are all rational. Second ...
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Modern portfolio theory

Modern portfolio theory (MPT) is a theory of finance that attempts to maximize portfolio expected return for a given amount of portfolio risk, or equivalently minimize risk for a given level of expected return, by carefully choosing the proportions of various assets. Although MPT is widely used in practice in the financial industry and several of its creators won a Nobel memorial prize for the theory, in recent years the basic assumptions of MPT have been widely challenged by fields such as behavioral economics.MPT is a mathematical formulation of the concept of diversification in investing, with the aim of selecting a collection of investment assets that has lower overall risk than any other combination of assets with the same expected return. This is possible, intuitively speaking, because different types of assets sometimes change in value in opposite directions. For example, to the extent prices in the stock market move differently from prices in the bond market, a combination of both types of assets can in theory generate lower overall risk than either individually. Diversification can lower risk even if assets' returns are positively correlated.More technically, MPT models an asset's return as a normally or elliptically distributed random variable, defines risk as the standard deviation of return, and models a portfolio as a weighted combination of assets, so that the return of a portfolio is the weighted combination of the assets' returns. By combining different assets whose returns are not perfectly positively correlated, MPT seeks to reduce the total variance of the portfolio return. MPT also assumes that investors are rational and markets are efficient.MPT was developed in the 1950s through the early 1970s and was considered an important advance in the mathematical modeling of finance. Since then, some theoretical and practical criticisms have been leveled against it. These include evidence that financial returns do not follow a normal distribution or indeed any symmetric distribution, and that correlations between asset classes are not fixed but can vary depending on external events (especially in crises). Further, there remains evidence that investors are not rational and markets may not be efficient. Finally, the low volatility anomaly conflicts with CAPM's trade-off assumption of higher risk for higher return. It states that a portfolio consisting of low volatility equities (like blue chip stocks) reaps higher risk-adjusted returns than a portfolio with high volatility equities (like illiquid penny stocks). A study conducted by Myron Scholes, Michael Jensen, and Fischer Black in 1972 suggests that the relationship between return and beta might be flat or even negatively correlated.
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