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IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

... modern energy (IIASA/GEA) • World primary energy demand expected to increase by 33% between 2011 & 2035 (IEA) • Energy production and consumption contributes over 80% of global GHG emissions (IIASA) ...
Have disaster losses increased due to anthropogenic climate change?
Have disaster losses increased due to anthropogenic climate change?

... so soon after acceptance, it has not yet been copyedited, formatted, or processed by AMS Publications. This preliminary version of the manuscript may be downloaded, distributed, and cited, but please be aware that there will be visual differences and possibly some content differences between this ve ...
S 2016
S 2016

... 400 ppm in May 2013 and continues to rise). Meanwhile, existing market-based programs such as carbon cap and trade are failing to constrain the steady increase of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, suggesting that accomplishing these goals without a radical change in our present econo ...
Adaptation and Mitigation Reponses to Climate Change
Adaptation and Mitigation Reponses to Climate Change

... assessing their perceptions and beliefs about climate change and their behavioral intentions to reduce their personal energy use (a mitigation action, as it will reduce greenhouse gas emissions). Some of the individuals (about 20 percent) had experienced recent flooding in their local area, while ot ...
PDF only - at www.arxiv.org.
PDF only - at www.arxiv.org.

... Fig. 4B shows the relationship between the mean reference temperature and the cloud water path. As can be seen, the hotter the system is, the larger the cloud water path becomes, thus suggesting an artificial cloud thickening induced by temperature calibration. This is also in line with prior studie ...
Reconsidering Ocean Calamities - India Environment Portal | News
Reconsidering Ocean Calamities - India Environment Portal | News

... The elements required for a problem in the marine ecosystem to reach the status of anthropogenic calamity include that the problem be a consequence of human activity, including pressures such as exploitation, eutrophication, hypoxia, habitat loss, anthropogenic climate change and ocean acidification ...
Climate sensitivity of shrub growth across the tundra biome
Climate sensitivity of shrub growth across the tundra biome

... Joint Research Centre (JRC), Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Forest Resources and Climate Unit, Via Enrico Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra VA, Italy. 5 Woods Hole Research Center, 149 Woods Hole Road, Falmouth, Massachusetts 02540, USA. 6 Institute of Botany and Landscape Ecology, Ernst- ...
Climate Change in the Himalayas
Climate Change in the Himalayas

... province of China find higher warming rates at higher altitudes (e.g. Liu et al., 2009; Liu and Chen, 2000; Qin et al., 2009; Thompson et al., 2003; Yang et al., 2011). Similar findings are reported by Shrestha et al. (1999) for Nepalese Himalayas and Khattak et al. (2011) in winter (Dec-Feb) Tmax f ...
interspecific interactions exceed climate effects
interspecific interactions exceed climate effects

... 2004). However, for most populations, long-term behavioural data are not available and, for many, experimentation is not feasible. In such cases, studies of the current relationship between behaviour and climate can shed light on the plasticity of a species’ behavioural response to climatic variatio ...
Valuing the Ocean: Extended Executive Summary
Valuing the Ocean: Extended Executive Summary

... emit CO2 at the same rate, the acidity could increase by 150-200 percent by 2100. This rate of change is around ten times faster than any other event experienced by the ocean for the last 65 million years. If CO2 emissions are not curbed substantially it will take tens of thousands of years for ocea ...
Climate and Climate Change
Climate and Climate Change

... 29) What best describes how Carbon Dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have changed in the last 500 years? A) Concentrations were steady until 1900 when they began to increase B) Concentrations increased until 1900 when they began to decrease C) Concentrations decreased until 1900 when they be ...
Sea-level Change - Hong Kong Observatory
Sea-level Change - Hong Kong Observatory

atmospheric phenomena and climate evaluating the effect of climatic
atmospheric phenomena and climate evaluating the effect of climatic

... quantitatively. Snow is known to be a good thermal insulant, therefore warming would be its major effect. Vegetation, in particular, the lowest moss-peat layer (often equated with organic layer) is a thermal insulant whose features change over time, which serves as efficient regulator of the changin ...
How positive is the feedback between climate change and the
How positive is the feedback between climate change and the

... recent Hadley Centre run including sulfate aerosols, solar variability and tropospheric ozone changes is able to reproduce the observed increases in temperature and CO2 (within the error bars on the net land-use emissions). This experiment produces a similar positive feedback in the future because a ...
Assessing the potential impacts of climate change on food
Assessing the potential impacts of climate change on food

... Europe’s climate is changing rapidly due to anthropogenic activity such as extensive fossil fuel combustion and widespread alterations in land use [1,2]. Conservative projections foresee global mean air temperatures increasing by 1.8 to 4.0 °C this century, while other models suggest a range of incr ...
global climate change and presidential leadership
global climate change and presidential leadership

... convinced that global climate change is real, but feel that it is due more to natural weather cycles than to human efforts; and 3) those who flatly denounce the idea of global climate change arguing that it is nothing but a fraud. In the first category are those who wish to respond immediately to cl ...
Natural selection and climate change: temperature
Natural selection and climate change: temperature

... Mitton et al. 1989). Such environmental correlation of molecular marker diversity is interpreted as evidence of adaptive genetic differentiation (Linhart & Grant 1996; Nevo 2001). The opposing view, based on evidence gained from some of the same species, is that these correlations of alleles with pa ...
climate change, small island developing States
climate change, small island developing States

The Principles and Criteria of Public Climate Finance
The Principles and Criteria of Public Climate Finance

... nder Article 4.3 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), developed countries committed to provide funding for the “agreed full incremental costs” of climate change in developing countries, meaning the additional costs of transforming business-asusual fossil-fuel dependent economic ...
Volume 3: Climate and Global Change and Risks
Volume 3: Climate and Global Change and Risks

GDI 12 – Warming Core – Final
GDI 12 – Warming Core – Final

... considerable gap in expertise between the two groups. An alternative measure of the quality and credibility of a scientist's contribution is the number of times their work is cited by other scientists. Again, there is a considerable gap between the number of citations of papers by convinced scientis ...
to the Program - International Conference on Climate
to the Program - International Conference on Climate

... accord (and possibly from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), cut billions of dollars from government programs that are little more than propaganda tools for climate alarmists, and work to restore scientific integrity to the climate change debate. The Heartland Institute, alo ...
Perceptions and Adaptation Measures of Crop
Perceptions and Adaptation Measures of Crop

Biogeophysical effects of historical land cover changes simulated by
Biogeophysical effects of historical land cover changes simulated by

... of land cover changes occurred prior to 1700, the differences in tree area changes between the KNMI (for which changes are from 1700 to 1992) and the other models (changes are from 1000 to 1992) may be explained by the differences in initial states (Fig. 1b). Atmospheric CO2 concentration in simulati ...
Climate change: a framework for a global agreement in 2015
Climate change: a framework for a global agreement in 2015

... from crops, animals and water supply to food security, climate regulation, health and protection from natural hazards. In providing these vital services and goods, nature delivers what is understood as “natural capital”. 10. In much the same way that investors use financial capital to generate profi ...
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Global warming hiatus



A global warming hiatus, also sometimes referred to as a global warming pause or a global warming slowdown, is a period of relatively little change in globally averaged surface temperatures. In the current episode of global warming many such periods are evident in the surface temperature record, along with robust evidence of the long term warming trend.The exceptionally warm El Niño year of 1998 was an outlier from the continuing temperature trend, and so gave the appearance of a hiatus: by January 2006 assertions had been made that this showed that global warming had stopped. A 2009 study showed that decades without warming were not exceptional, and in 2011 a study showed that if allowances were made for known variability, the rising temperature trend continued unabated. There was increased public interest in 2013 in the run-up to publication of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and despite concerns that a 15-year period was too short to determine a meaningful trend, the IPCC included a section on a hiatus, which it defined as a much smaller increasing linear trend over the 15 years from 1998 to 2012, than over the 60 years from 1951 to 2012. Various studies examined possible causes of the short term slowdown. Even though the overall climate system had continued to accumulate energy due to Earth's positive energy budget, the available temperature readings at the earth's surface indicated slower rates of increase in surface warming than in the prior decade. Since measurements at the top of the atmosphere show that Earth is receiving more energy than it is radiating back into space, the retained energy should be producing warming in at least one of the five parts of Earth's climate system.A July 2015 paper on the updated NOAA dataset cast doubt on the existence of this supposed hiatus, and found no indication of a slowdown. This analysis incorporated the latest corrections for known biases in ocean temperature measurements, and new land temperature data. Scientists working on other datasets welcomed this study, though the view was expressed that the short term warming trend had been slower than in previous periods of the same length.
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