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Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast
Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast

... models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) show declining Arctic ice cover over this period. However, depending on the time window for analysis, none or very few individual model simulations show trends comparable to observations. If the ...
Conditional Cooperation and Climate Change
Conditional Cooperation and Climate Change

... Email: [email protected] ...
Impact of temperature on the breeding performance and selection
Impact of temperature on the breeding performance and selection

... in heterogeneous patterns of climate change responses. Knowledge of the different factors driving these patterns is needed to predict and ultimately manage species responses. Here, we investigated the response of breeding parameters to climate for a long-distance migrant raptor not reliant on the lar ...
An investor enquiry: how much big oil spends on obstructive climate
An investor enquiry: how much big oil spends on obstructive climate

... requires disclosure of spending by corporations on political donations and through registered lobbyists. However the precise reason for this spending is generally not clear from these disclosures and the total amounts are relatively small. For example, Exxon disclosed spending of under $15m accordin ...
Modelling the Response of Mountain Glacier Discharge
Modelling the Response of Mountain Glacier Discharge

... strong summer snowfall can effectively shut off glacier discharge for an extended period of the melt season. Currently, many conceptual runoff models do not include explicit routing routines for water transport through the glacier, taking into account the different hydraulic properties of snow, firn ...
Executive Summary - UNECE Environmental Policy web-site
Executive Summary - UNECE Environmental Policy web-site

... range of the natural variability. The yearly runoff decrease in 2021-2050 (approximately 24%) can be expected for the Lower Dniester only. 2. In the intra-annual flow distribution the increase is possible in cold season in the Carpathian part of the basin along with a reduction of spring flood and i ...
Climate Change and Conflict in the Southern Philippines
Climate Change and Conflict in the Southern Philippines

... physical, in which the ecological character of an area is vulnerable to the physical effects of climate change, or social, in which the capacity for individuals and societies to meet the physical challenges of climate change is low. The dissemination of climate impacts varies geographically; both i ...
A Question of Equilibrium
A Question of Equilibrium

... The Climate, it is a-changing, driven in part by natural factors and in part by the effects of greenhouse gases emitted through human activity. About half of the global warming is currently attributed to the greenhouse gas (GHG) effect, and about a third of all human GHG emissions are currently abso ...
Geographical restructuring of Arabidopsis thaliana`s
Geographical restructuring of Arabidopsis thaliana`s

... 2011) of the four RCP scenarios adopted by IPCC in its fifth Assessment Report (AR5) (IPCC, ...
CC Equity SDS- An Urban Perspective Forthcoming
CC Equity SDS- An Urban Perspective Forthcoming

... responsibility and pledges. However, Metz [14] stresses that the equity discussions around climate change should not only consider mitigation, but also explicitly take account of impact and adaptation. This is of particular importance for urban areas, as it is at local and regional scales where diff ...
Normative aspects of climate adaptation policies
Normative aspects of climate adaptation policies

... particularly troublesome. In acting too eagerly, investments will probably be made which in hindsight might not have been necessary. Waiting too long before implementing measures could mean that important adaptation options are no longer available, the cost of measures increases significantly, and t ...
Migration and Climate Change - Development Research Centre on
Migration and Climate Change - Development Research Centre on

... population. According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM) about 192 million people, or 3 per cent of the world’s population, now live outside their place of birth.9 But this prediction is still very tentative. Professor Myers himself admits that his estimate, although calculated fr ...
Temperature change and its effects on the Great Lakes climate
Temperature change and its effects on the Great Lakes climate

... possibilities over the next several thousand years that could drive climate change. Global Warming Global Warming is the process of the earth warming due to human intensification. The burning of fossil fuels releases green house gases into the atmosphere which in turn helps to warm our planet over t ...
Representation of Extreme Precipitation Events Leading to Opposite
Representation of Extreme Precipitation Events Leading to Opposite

... In the present study, an analysis of the potential reasons causing the opposite signals between the two models is presented. The rest of the paper is structured as follows. In Section 2, a brief description of models and experimental setup is presented. Section 3 deals with the evaluation of model r ...
Mirrors and Mazes: A guide through the climate debate – ANZEC
Mirrors and Mazes: A guide through the climate debate – ANZEC

... pauses, despite carbon dioxide levels rising continuously during this time. There was no relationship between the rise in CO2 levels. I realised there had to be some mistake about the sensitivity of the climate system to CO2, which follows the American Academy of Science’s 1979 proposal that tempera ...
Frontline Communities lead the Climate JustiCe Fight Beyond the
Frontline Communities lead the Climate JustiCe Fight Beyond the

... burning fossil fuels. An example of what is being traded is a mechanism called “Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation”4 (REDD+). Within climate negotiations, deforestation has become a global issue. Forests provide vast amounts of carbon sinks that when destroyed emit CO2 into ...
Investing in a Time of Climate Change
Investing in a Time of Climate Change

... AN INTERCONNECTED WORLD: CLIMATE CHANGE IS AN INVESTMENT ISSUE While climate change as caused by human activities is an established scientific fact, there remains uncertainty around how climate change will develop and questions prevail, including: ...
Ealing Borough Climate Change Strategy 2008-2011
Ealing Borough Climate Change Strategy 2008-2011

... will not only help the environment but also could save you money. Tackling climate change can also help combat issues such as deprivation and fuel poverty. Ealing’s LSP Executive has recognised the importance of the issue of climate change and in March 2007 agreed to pursue the development of a Clim ...
Indicators of Canada`s Changing Climate
Indicators of Canada`s Changing Climate

... water all depend in one way or another on climate, as do many other things we need or value. When climate changes, all of these are affected too – sometimes slightly, sometimes considerably, sometimes for the better, and sometimes for the worse. Canada’s climate has begun to change in a number of wa ...
Desertification In The Sahel
Desertification In The Sahel

... To understand the global climate pattern, Frierson and his colleagues first tracked rainfall data worldwide from rain gauge records from the 1930s to the 1990s. They saw the heavy tropical rainfall band called the Intertropical Convergence Zone wander back and forth near the equator, a natural pheno ...
Experimental warming causes rapid loss of plant
Experimental warming causes rapid loss of plant

... due to warming occurred after only a single season at DrakeÕs Island (Fig. 3a), demonstrating that the effects of warming on salt marsh plant composition are robust and rapid. The decline in cover of all forb panne species, regardless of species identity, was remarkably uniform (Fig. 2b), indicating ...
Québec and Climate change 2006-2012 Action Plan
Québec and Climate change 2006-2012 Action Plan

... The climate change issue has been included in the new recover the biogases from the Saint-Étienne-des-Grès Plan d’action concerté sur l’agroenvironnement et la landfill site. These biogases will be used to heat the cohabitation harmonieuse 2007-2010, a joint effort of greenhouse complex as well as p ...
The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer
The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer

... These brief historical accounts suggest key differences between the two issues. The first major distinction is that the scientific analysis of the two cases occurred on vastly different timescales. The research into the effect of CFCs and other manmade compounds on concentrations of ozone in the str ...
Efficient Adaptation to Climate Change
Efficient Adaptation to Climate Change

... easy to believe that ex-post adaptations will be undertaken, it is less clear whether ex-ante efforts will be widespread. This paper stresses two additional points. First, that there is an efficient amount of adaptation. Adaptation is efficient only if the cost of making the effort is less than the ...
Political parties` climate policies in the UK, Italy and Denmark Paper
Political parties` climate policies in the UK, Italy and Denmark Paper

... would, if implemented, have the effect of reducing net GHG emissions (see EBRD and Grantham Research Institute, 2011; Bailey and Compston, 2013 for examples).6 However, party documents are not simply lists of policy proposals: much text simply expresses a party’s general attitude or sentiment on an ...
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Attribution of recent climate change



Attribution of recent climate change is the effort to scientifically ascertain mechanisms responsible for recent changes observed in the Earth's climate, commonly known as 'global warming'. The effort has focused on changes observed during the period of instrumental temperature record, when records are most reliable; particularly in the last 50 years, when human activity has grown fastest and observations of the troposphere have become available. The dominant mechanisms (to which recent climate change has been attributed) are anthropogenic, i.e., the result of human activity. They are: increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases global changes to land surface, such as deforestation increasing atmospheric concentrations of aerosols.There are also natural mechanisms for variation including climate oscillations, changes in solar activity, and volcanic activity.According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), it is ""extremely likely"" that human influence was the dominant cause of global warming between 1951 and 2010. The IPCC defines ""extremely likely"" as indicating a probability of 95 to 100%, based on an expert assessment of all the available evidence.Multiple lines of evidence support attribution of recent climate change to human activities: A basic physical understanding of the climate system: greenhouse gas concentrations have increased and their warming properties are well-established. Historical estimates of past climate changes suggest that the recent changes in global surface temperature are unusual. Computer-based climate models are unable to replicate the observed warming unless human greenhouse gas emissions are included. Natural forces alone (such as solar and volcanic activity) cannot explain the observed warming.The IPCC's attribution of recent global warming to human activities is a view shared by most scientists, and is also supported by 196 other scientific organizations worldwide (see also: scientific opinion on climate change).
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