Potential Evapotranspiration Under Present and Future
... change effects on PET could achieve higher level of certainty. The objective of this chapter was to calculate PET values in five governorates in Egypt using Penman-Monteith equation with climate normals values (1985–2014). Furthermore, to reduce uncertainty in the projection of the effect of climate ...
... change effects on PET could achieve higher level of certainty. The objective of this chapter was to calculate PET values in five governorates in Egypt using Penman-Monteith equation with climate normals values (1985–2014). Furthermore, to reduce uncertainty in the projection of the effect of climate ...
Future Weather
... associated with local flooding, erosion and water damage, and may have impacts on transport and safety. It is commonly expected that precipitation extremes will increase as the climate warms (see box). In an earlier study it was found for data from De Bilt that hourly precipitation extremes increase ...
... associated with local flooding, erosion and water damage, and may have impacts on transport and safety. It is commonly expected that precipitation extremes will increase as the climate warms (see box). In an earlier study it was found for data from De Bilt that hourly precipitation extremes increase ...
department of defense weather programs
... The Department of Defense (DOD) operates a military environmental service system to provide specialized worldwide meteorological, space environmental and oceanographic analysis and prediction services in support of military forces. This system directly supports all phases of military operations, fro ...
... The Department of Defense (DOD) operates a military environmental service system to provide specialized worldwide meteorological, space environmental and oceanographic analysis and prediction services in support of military forces. This system directly supports all phases of military operations, fro ...
Prediction of Seasonal Forest Fire Severity in
... In Canada, the physical and economic impacts of extended dry conditions are most evident during the warm season. A statistically robust relationship between seasonal Canadian temperature and precipitation, key factors in the formation of conditions leading to fire severity, and the ENSO cycle has al ...
... In Canada, the physical and economic impacts of extended dry conditions are most evident during the warm season. A statistically robust relationship between seasonal Canadian temperature and precipitation, key factors in the formation of conditions leading to fire severity, and the ENSO cycle has al ...
Unrestricted versus restricted factor analysis of multidimensional test
... Lee (1992). However, neither this nor the previous problem seem to have been systematically studied. Review of simulation studies The problems which arise from using categorical variables are not a direct objective of the present research. However, because the typical item response formats reviewed ...
... Lee (1992). However, neither this nor the previous problem seem to have been systematically studied. Review of simulation studies The problems which arise from using categorical variables are not a direct objective of the present research. However, because the typical item response formats reviewed ...
On the persistent spread in snow-albedo feedback
... Eq. (1), the variations in it from model to model are negligible. Therefore it is not discussed in this work.) The magnitude of the second term is determined by the combined strength of the snow cover and snow metamorphosis feedbacks described above. We note that in some cases, changes in surface al ...
... Eq. (1), the variations in it from model to model are negligible. Therefore it is not discussed in this work.) The magnitude of the second term is determined by the combined strength of the snow cover and snow metamorphosis feedbacks described above. We note that in some cases, changes in surface al ...
Simulated versus observed patterns of warming over the
... Comparison of the Dynamically Adjusted Trends To investigate the degree to which the enhanced warming over the high-latitude continents during the boreal cold season is attributable to changes in the atmospheric circulation during the reference period, we applied a “dynamical adjustment” to the tim ...
... Comparison of the Dynamically Adjusted Trends To investigate the degree to which the enhanced warming over the high-latitude continents during the boreal cold season is attributable to changes in the atmospheric circulation during the reference period, we applied a “dynamical adjustment” to the tim ...
The First Decade of Long-Lead U.S. Seasonal Forecasts
... Skill in forecasting the correct equally probable tercile category (above, near, or below normal) is analyzed, rather than the skill in assigning probabilities to the categories, and only one measure of skill is used, a modified Heidke skill score (MHSS; described in the next section). The purpose h ...
... Skill in forecasting the correct equally probable tercile category (above, near, or below normal) is analyzed, rather than the skill in assigning probabilities to the categories, and only one measure of skill is used, a modified Heidke skill score (MHSS; described in the next section). The purpose h ...
Tropical Intraseasonal Variability in 14 IPCC AR4
... This study evaluates the tropical intraseasonal variability, especially the fidelity of Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) simulations, in 14 coupled general circulation models (GCMs) participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Eight years of da ...
... This study evaluates the tropical intraseasonal variability, especially the fidelity of Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) simulations, in 14 coupled general circulation models (GCMs) participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Eight years of da ...
Polar amplification as a preferred response in an idealized
... ocean, Boer (1995) found a polar amplified surface temperature response accompanied by a very modest change in total poleward atmospheric energy transport. The small change was found to occur due to a cancellation between a decrease in dry static energy transport and an increase in the latent heat t ...
... ocean, Boer (1995) found a polar amplified surface temperature response accompanied by a very modest change in total poleward atmospheric energy transport. The small change was found to occur due to a cancellation between a decrease in dry static energy transport and an increase in the latent heat t ...
A finite element method for incompressible Navier
... Let ∂Ω(t) = ∂Ωns (t) and ξ t be given on ∂Ωns (t). Then there exists v1 ∈ C 1 (Q)d , v1 = ξ t , div (JF−1 v1 ) = 0 [Miyakawa1982] and we can decompose the solution v = w + v1 , w = 0 on ∂Ωns Energy balance for w: ...
... Let ∂Ω(t) = ∂Ωns (t) and ξ t be given on ∂Ωns (t). Then there exists v1 ∈ C 1 (Q)d , v1 = ξ t , div (JF−1 v1 ) = 0 [Miyakawa1982] and we can decompose the solution v = w + v1 , w = 0 on ∂Ωns Energy balance for w: ...
"Greenhouse warming? What greenhouse warming?" PDF
... “For longer-timescale temperature changes over 1979 to 1999, only one of four observed upper-air data sets has larger tropical warming aloft than in the surface records.” [Even this single dataset does not show enough troposphere warming to match the models’ predictions that justify the UN’s ...
... “For longer-timescale temperature changes over 1979 to 1999, only one of four observed upper-air data sets has larger tropical warming aloft than in the surface records.” [Even this single dataset does not show enough troposphere warming to match the models’ predictions that justify the UN’s ...
Propositional Logic
... ! knowledge base to encode problem-‐specific known facts ! problem independent inference algorithms to deduce new facts ...
... ! knowledge base to encode problem-‐specific known facts ! problem independent inference algorithms to deduce new facts ...
The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and
... climate change would lead to disproportionate increases in precipitation during high precipitation events, but this is not incorporated here. 2.3 The global hydrological model River flows are simulated across the global domain at a spatial resolution of 0.5×0.5° using the global hydrological model M ...
... climate change would lead to disproportionate increases in precipitation during high precipitation events, but this is not incorporated here. 2.3 The global hydrological model River flows are simulated across the global domain at a spatial resolution of 0.5×0.5° using the global hydrological model M ...
An intercomparison of observed and simulated extreme rainfall and
... changes in variability and hence extreme events that could accompany global climate change. Short-scale extreme events have long been of interest to meteorologists because most of the meteorological-related human and monetary costs are usually incurred during the brief periods of these short-term ev ...
... changes in variability and hence extreme events that could accompany global climate change. Short-scale extreme events have long been of interest to meteorologists because most of the meteorological-related human and monetary costs are usually incurred during the brief periods of these short-term ev ...
evident - Mudanças Climáticas
... changes in variability and hence extreme events that could accompany global climate change. Short-scale extreme events have long been of interest to meteorologists because most of the meteorological-related human and monetary costs are usually incurred during the brief periods of these short-term ev ...
... changes in variability and hence extreme events that could accompany global climate change. Short-scale extreme events have long been of interest to meteorologists because most of the meteorological-related human and monetary costs are usually incurred during the brief periods of these short-term ev ...
Numerical weather prediction
Numerical weather prediction uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. Though first attempted in the 1920s, it was not until the advent of computer simulation in the 1950s that numerical weather predictions produced realistic results. A number of global and regional forecast models are run in different countries worldwide, using current weather observations relayed from radiosondes, weather satellites and other observing systems as inputs.Mathematical models based on the same physical principles can be used to generate either short-term weather forecasts or longer-term climate predictions; the latter are widely applied for understanding and projecting climate change. The improvements made to regional models have allowed for significant improvements in tropical cyclone track and air quality forecasts; however, atmospheric models perform poorly at handling processes that occur in a relatively constricted area, such as wildfires.Manipulating the vast datasets and performing the complex calculations necessary to modern numerical weather prediction requires some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world. Even with the increasing power of supercomputers, the forecast skill of numerical weather models extends to about only six days. Factors affecting the accuracy of numerical predictions include the density and quality of observations used as input to the forecasts, along with deficiencies in the numerical models themselves. Post-processing techniques such as model output statistics (MOS) have been developed to improve the handling of errors in numerical predictions.A more fundamental problem lies in the chaotic nature of the partial differential equations that govern the atmosphere. It is impossible to solve these equations exactly, and small errors grow with time (doubling about every five days). Present understanding is that this chaotic behavior limits accurate forecasts to about 14 days even with perfectly accurate input data and a flawless model. In addition, the partial differential equations used in the model need to be supplemented with parameterizations for solar radiation, moist processes (clouds and precipitation), heat exchange, soil, vegetation, surface water, and the effects of terrain. In an effort to quantify the large amount of inherent uncertainty remaining in numerical predictions, ensemble forecasts have been used since the 1990s to help gauge the confidence in the forecast, and to obtain useful results farther into the future than otherwise possible. This approach analyzes multiple forecasts created with an individual forecast model or multiple models.