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Tracking Uncertainty in Search and Rescue Planning Art Allen . U.S. Coast Guard Office of Search and Rescue [email protected] The basic steps for SAR Planning 1. Initial Conditions . 2. Drift Predictions 3. Resource Allocation 4. Actual search effectiveness 5. Updating search conditions Rescue or Suspend Databases Search Results Build a SAR Case Assemble Search Plan Disseminate . Search Plan Environmental Now & Forecasts Capture Search Results Search Plans Results Field Initial Conditions Uncertainties 1. Scenarios • Subjective relative weights . between scenarios • (e.g. 80%A or 20%B) • Each scenarios will have its own set of initial conditions Initial Conditions Uncertainties 1. Where did the incident occur? 2. When did the incident occur? . 3. What are we looking for? 4. How long will they survive? Databases Store Case Info. Background Search object info. User inputs Capture . Initial Case Data (Input and weight Scenarios) Initial POC Initial POSv Initial States . . . . . . . . . . . . Rescue or Suspend Databases Search Results Build a SAR Case Assemble Search Plan Disseminate . Search Plan Environmental Now & Forecasts Capture Search Results Search Plans Results Field (2) Assemble Search Plan A) Compute Probability Density Distributions Databases (Case, SRU’s) Initial POC Initial POSv Initial States Drift/ Survival/State of Replications (Leeway / Drift Model) (Survival Model) (Detection Model) Drifted POC Updated POSv Updated States Search Results Now and Forecast Winds, Currents, Waves, SST & Air T, Visibility, etc. Probability Distributions 1. Drift uncertainties 2. Survival uncertainties . 3. Detection uncertainties Drift Uncertainties 1. Surface current errors & dispersion (u’,v’) 2. Target uncertainty . • What are we looking for? 3. Leeway uncertainty 4. Wind and Waves Surface Currents 1. Sources: • Historical ship-drift global data sets • Global, regional &. coastal models • Direct on-scene measurements 2. Dispersion • Random walk – 0th order Markov model Self-Locating Datum Marker Buoys th CODE SLDMBs – Air-deployable • Random flight – 1st7/10 order Markov drifter, GPS positions & SST via Argos model SLDMBs . Self-Locating Datum Marker Buoys Airdeployable 7/10th CODE drifter, GPS positions & SST via Argos Surface currents from CODAR . CODAR / SLDMBs •Black: Actual SLDMB Trajectory •Red: Trajectory Predicted From NOAA Tidal station •Blue: Trajectory Predicted From CODAR Data . CODAR / SLDMBs •Black: Actual SLDMB Trajectory •Blue: Trajectory Predicted From CODAR Data •Red: Trajectory Predicted From STPS predictions . Leeway classes 1. Statistical analysis of field experiments: • Indirect and Direct . methods • US, Canadian, Japanese & Korean 2. Leeway taxonomy by Allen and Plourde (1999) combined results into 63 categories. . Approximations Wind speed and object drift is approximately linearly related Approximations Different objects drift differently Undrogued life raft Life raft with drogue Objects do not drift exactly downwind! Constrained or Unconstrained Linear Equations Used in Monte Carlo Simulations Winds and Waves 1. Global, regional & coastal models 2. Direct on-scene measurements . • Both wind and waves act through leeway Probability Distributions 1. Drift uncertainties 2. Survival uncertainties . 3. Detection uncertainties Survival Modeling 1. UK Immersion statistics 2. CESM Hypothermia model Mathematical model . Physiological data Survival Uncertainties 1. CESM / UK statistics limited to cold water survival 2. Warm water survival factors: 1. Still hypothermic . (loss of heat) 2. Dehydration (lost of water) 3. Sleeplessness (lost of sleep / restoration) 4. Fatigue (loss of available energy) 5. Circadian rhythms (cycles in all above) 6. Predation (loss of blood) Probability Distributions 1. Drift uncertainties 2. Survival uncertainties . 3. Detection uncertainties Detection Uncertainties Lateral range curves & sweep widths based upon limited field tests and MSPP . • Limited environmental conditions • Limited Target sets • Limited SRU / sensor combinations Rescue or Suspend Databases Search Results Build a SAR Case Assemble Search Plan Disseminate . Search Plan Environmental Now & Forecasts Capture Search Results Search Plans Results Field (2) Assemble Search Plan B) Capture Resources Databases Background SRU info. Users inputs Capture SRU Availability SRUs called (Position, Status Capabilities, Limitations) SRU Risks Winds,Waves, SST & Air T, Visibility, etc. (2) Assemble Search Plan C) Allocate Resources Databases Drifted POC Updated POSv Updated States SRUs called 1) Suggest Optimal Survivor Search Plan 2) Modify Plan to suit 3) Capture Plan to execute Forecasted Winds,Waves, SST, Air T, & Sensor Environmentals Search PLANS (3) Disseminate Search Plans Search PLANS Support various output methods to disseminate search plans. To Shore To Vessels To Aircraft (4) Capture Search Results Databases USCG Vessels USCG Aircraft Other searchers Capture description of completed searches including both positive and negative results. Search Results Nowcasted/Observed Winds,Waves, SST, Air T, & Sensor Environmentals Rescue or Suspend