Annex 5: Changes to the Atlantic Ocean circulation (Gulf Stream)
... maximum Central England Temperature, relative to the preindustrial climate. A cooling of around 4°C is seen on average, somewhat more in winter than in summer. In spring and autumn this means that the average daily maximum is less than the coldest 5% of days in the pre-industrial climate. The model ...
... maximum Central England Temperature, relative to the preindustrial climate. A cooling of around 4°C is seen on average, somewhat more in winter than in summer. In spring and autumn this means that the average daily maximum is less than the coldest 5% of days in the pre-industrial climate. The model ...
The integrated Earth system model version 1
... POP and CICE are finite volume codes with semi-implicit and explicit time integration and are implemented on logically Cartesian meshes that are stretched to embed polar singularities in land regions and thereby remove these singularities from computation. The CAM model has flexible formulations for ...
... POP and CICE are finite volume codes with semi-implicit and explicit time integration and are implemented on logically Cartesian meshes that are stretched to embed polar singularities in land regions and thereby remove these singularities from computation. The CAM model has flexible formulations for ...
Climate change impacts on snow water availability in the Euphrates
... of wind and solar radiation, which are important drivers of snow accumulation, sublimation, and melt processes (Storck, 2000; Storck et al., 2002). Fundamentally, the partitioning between the snow and rain phases of precipitation is determined from a simple scheme based on estimated hourly temperatu ...
... of wind and solar radiation, which are important drivers of snow accumulation, sublimation, and melt processes (Storck, 2000; Storck et al., 2002). Fundamentally, the partitioning between the snow and rain phases of precipitation is determined from a simple scheme based on estimated hourly temperatu ...
Changes in El Niño and La Niña teleconnections over North Pacific
... Meehl and Teng 2007; Sterl et al., 2007) give more or less inconsistent results. This may be because their results are highly dependent of the amplitude changes of ENSO itself associated with the global warming (Meehl and Teng 2007; Sterl et al. 2007). The multimodel approach will be a useful way to ...
... Meehl and Teng 2007; Sterl et al., 2007) give more or less inconsistent results. This may be because their results are highly dependent of the amplitude changes of ENSO itself associated with the global warming (Meehl and Teng 2007; Sterl et al. 2007). The multimodel approach will be a useful way to ...
Some issues in uncertainty quantification and parameter tuning: a
... Received: 10 November 2011 – Published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.: 2 December 2011 Revised: 7 February 2012 – Accepted: 21 February 2012 – Published: 5 March 2012 ...
... Received: 10 November 2011 – Published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.: 2 December 2011 Revised: 7 February 2012 – Accepted: 21 February 2012 – Published: 5 March 2012 ...
Climate Change - WeatherAction
... removing stations to make the data look colder in the past & warmer now • BUT Whatever they do, even with ‘new’ data the WORLD IS COOLING while CO2 still rises ...
... removing stations to make the data look colder in the past & warmer now • BUT Whatever they do, even with ‘new’ data the WORLD IS COOLING while CO2 still rises ...
Highly Significant Responses to Anthropogenic Forcings of the
... It has been suggested that changes in the atmospheric circulation caused by anthropogenic forcings are highly uncertain, owing to the large natural variability intrinsic to the system. Here, to assess the statistical significance of such changes for the midlatitude, large-scale atmospheric circulati ...
... It has been suggested that changes in the atmospheric circulation caused by anthropogenic forcings are highly uncertain, owing to the large natural variability intrinsic to the system. Here, to assess the statistical significance of such changes for the midlatitude, large-scale atmospheric circulati ...
Evaluating the Use of Ocean Models of Different Complexity in
... Due to these uncertainties, there is no single best climate model or best set of key climate parameters for projecting climate change. A sensible approach is therefore to produce probability distributions for the changes in the most important climate variables. Such probabilistic approaches are als ...
... Due to these uncertainties, there is no single best climate model or best set of key climate parameters for projecting climate change. A sensible approach is therefore to produce probability distributions for the changes in the most important climate variables. Such probabilistic approaches are als ...
Forecasting the End of Climate Change Litigation: Why Expert
... of the fact that previous litigation in this area has been easily disposed of under federal law. Part III defines and explains the scientific models that may have been used in those cases and models that could be used in future similar cases. It first describes the makeup and function of a scientif ...
... of the fact that previous litigation in this area has been easily disposed of under federal law. Part III defines and explains the scientific models that may have been used in those cases and models that could be used in future similar cases. It first describes the makeup and function of a scientif ...
UKCP09: Probabilistic projections of wind speed
... modelling uncertainties by combining results from perturbed variants of the HadCM3 configuration of the Met Office global climate model with projections from an ensemble of alternative international climate models. However, as discussed in the UKCP09 climate projections science report (Murphy et al. ...
... modelling uncertainties by combining results from perturbed variants of the HadCM3 configuration of the Met Office global climate model with projections from an ensemble of alternative international climate models. However, as discussed in the UKCP09 climate projections science report (Murphy et al. ...
Numerical weather prediction
Numerical weather prediction uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. Though first attempted in the 1920s, it was not until the advent of computer simulation in the 1950s that numerical weather predictions produced realistic results. A number of global and regional forecast models are run in different countries worldwide, using current weather observations relayed from radiosondes, weather satellites and other observing systems as inputs.Mathematical models based on the same physical principles can be used to generate either short-term weather forecasts or longer-term climate predictions; the latter are widely applied for understanding and projecting climate change. The improvements made to regional models have allowed for significant improvements in tropical cyclone track and air quality forecasts; however, atmospheric models perform poorly at handling processes that occur in a relatively constricted area, such as wildfires.Manipulating the vast datasets and performing the complex calculations necessary to modern numerical weather prediction requires some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world. Even with the increasing power of supercomputers, the forecast skill of numerical weather models extends to about only six days. Factors affecting the accuracy of numerical predictions include the density and quality of observations used as input to the forecasts, along with deficiencies in the numerical models themselves. Post-processing techniques such as model output statistics (MOS) have been developed to improve the handling of errors in numerical predictions.A more fundamental problem lies in the chaotic nature of the partial differential equations that govern the atmosphere. It is impossible to solve these equations exactly, and small errors grow with time (doubling about every five days). Present understanding is that this chaotic behavior limits accurate forecasts to about 14 days even with perfectly accurate input data and a flawless model. In addition, the partial differential equations used in the model need to be supplemented with parameterizations for solar radiation, moist processes (clouds and precipitation), heat exchange, soil, vegetation, surface water, and the effects of terrain. In an effort to quantify the large amount of inherent uncertainty remaining in numerical predictions, ensemble forecasts have been used since the 1990s to help gauge the confidence in the forecast, and to obtain useful results farther into the future than otherwise possible. This approach analyzes multiple forecasts created with an individual forecast model or multiple models.