Is Strange Weather in the Air? A Study of US National Network News
... Overall, Figure 6 displays rapid year-by-year fluctuations in the level of coverage. Until 1988, noticeable peaks in coverage occur at best every five or six years. But between 1992 and 1996, peak coverage is found in four of the five years. Given that the number of stories in these years exceed all ...
... Overall, Figure 6 displays rapid year-by-year fluctuations in the level of coverage. Until 1988, noticeable peaks in coverage occur at best every five or six years. But between 1992 and 1996, peak coverage is found in four of the five years. Given that the number of stories in these years exceed all ...
Global Change – The IGBP Series
... Peter G. Brewer, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, Moss Landing, USA ...
... Peter G. Brewer, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, Moss Landing, USA ...
Chapter 1
... mathematical model for deciding the starting bid he will require when auctioning a used automobile. Essentially, he sets the starting bid at seventy percent of what he predicts the final winning bid will (or should) be. He predicts the winning bid by starting with the car's original selling price an ...
... mathematical model for deciding the starting bid he will require when auctioning a used automobile. Essentially, he sets the starting bid at seventy percent of what he predicts the final winning bid will (or should) be. He predicts the winning bid by starting with the car's original selling price an ...
How to read a Climate-Fact-Sheet
... development of greenhouse gas emissions, whereby we are at present only minimally able to assess, for example, how technical or political processes will operate in the future. In addition to this, real meteorological processes are simplified for inclusion in the climate models and in some cases also ...
... development of greenhouse gas emissions, whereby we are at present only minimally able to assess, for example, how technical or political processes will operate in the future. In addition to this, real meteorological processes are simplified for inclusion in the climate models and in some cases also ...
Simulation of regional climate change under the IPCC A2 scenario
... But processes at the unresolved scales are important. This is particularly the case in East Asia, where AOGCMs always have large biases in reproducing the present-day climate, due to the complex topography (Zhou and Li 2002; Gao et al. 2004, 2006; Jiang et al. 2005; Zhou and Yu 2006) that affect the ...
... But processes at the unresolved scales are important. This is particularly the case in East Asia, where AOGCMs always have large biases in reproducing the present-day climate, due to the complex topography (Zhou and Li 2002; Gao et al. 2004, 2006; Jiang et al. 2005; Zhou and Yu 2006) that affect the ...
Optimization and Control of Agent
... may have adaptive behavioral rules that lead to unforeseeable interactions and emergence. The time scales of different behavioral rules and environmental pressures can also be quite variable. These features make ABMs difficult to encode in terms of traditional difference or differential equations mo ...
... may have adaptive behavioral rules that lead to unforeseeable interactions and emergence. The time scales of different behavioral rules and environmental pressures can also be quite variable. These features make ABMs difficult to encode in terms of traditional difference or differential equations mo ...
(I) - GCMs and Climate Change Scenarios
... later (e.g., twenty minutes for the atmosphere, hour for ocean). •equations for each box depend on the values in neighboring boxes. •computation is done for a million or so grid boxes over the globe. •repeated for the next time step, and so on until the desired length of simulation is obtained. •com ...
... later (e.g., twenty minutes for the atmosphere, hour for ocean). •equations for each box depend on the values in neighboring boxes. •computation is done for a million or so grid boxes over the globe. •repeated for the next time step, and so on until the desired length of simulation is obtained. •com ...
Is the melting Arctic changing midlatitude weather?
... Arctic thus loses less radiant heat from the top of the atmosphere than do the lower latitudes.1 The increase in atmospheric water vapor also traps Arctic heat. Based on more than 20 climate models developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s fifth assessment report in 2013, research ...
... Arctic thus loses less radiant heat from the top of the atmosphere than do the lower latitudes.1 The increase in atmospheric water vapor also traps Arctic heat. Based on more than 20 climate models developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s fifth assessment report in 2013, research ...
Provide an initial estimate of the uncertainty in UK predicted climate
... reliability) of UKIR climate projections. This additional uncertainty may also be interpreted from a physical point of view (as well as the experimental point of view emphasised here), in that as finer scales are considered, additional phenomena and processes must be modelled, thus increasing the s ...
... reliability) of UKIR climate projections. This additional uncertainty may also be interpreted from a physical point of view (as well as the experimental point of view emphasised here), in that as finer scales are considered, additional phenomena and processes must be modelled, thus increasing the s ...
Future Change of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone
... process (Hatsushika et al. 2006). The TCR data provide an artificial three-dimensional TC structure constructed using information from the best-track data, such as position, motion, maximum surface winds, and the radii of 30- and 50-kt wind speeds. The TCR was then treated as observational data in t ...
... process (Hatsushika et al. 2006). The TCR data provide an artificial three-dimensional TC structure constructed using information from the best-track data, such as position, motion, maximum surface winds, and the radii of 30- and 50-kt wind speeds. The TCR was then treated as observational data in t ...
Climate Models for the Layman - The Global Warming Policy
... Global climate models (GCMs) attempt to create a coarse-grained simulation of the Earth’s climate system using computers. GCMs have modules that model the atmosphere, ocean, land surface, sea ice and glaciers. The atmospheric module simulates the evolution of the winds, temperature, humidity and atm ...
... Global climate models (GCMs) attempt to create a coarse-grained simulation of the Earth’s climate system using computers. GCMs have modules that model the atmosphere, ocean, land surface, sea ice and glaciers. The atmospheric module simulates the evolution of the winds, temperature, humidity and atm ...
Numerical weather prediction
Numerical weather prediction uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. Though first attempted in the 1920s, it was not until the advent of computer simulation in the 1950s that numerical weather predictions produced realistic results. A number of global and regional forecast models are run in different countries worldwide, using current weather observations relayed from radiosondes, weather satellites and other observing systems as inputs.Mathematical models based on the same physical principles can be used to generate either short-term weather forecasts or longer-term climate predictions; the latter are widely applied for understanding and projecting climate change. The improvements made to regional models have allowed for significant improvements in tropical cyclone track and air quality forecasts; however, atmospheric models perform poorly at handling processes that occur in a relatively constricted area, such as wildfires.Manipulating the vast datasets and performing the complex calculations necessary to modern numerical weather prediction requires some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world. Even with the increasing power of supercomputers, the forecast skill of numerical weather models extends to about only six days. Factors affecting the accuracy of numerical predictions include the density and quality of observations used as input to the forecasts, along with deficiencies in the numerical models themselves. Post-processing techniques such as model output statistics (MOS) have been developed to improve the handling of errors in numerical predictions.A more fundamental problem lies in the chaotic nature of the partial differential equations that govern the atmosphere. It is impossible to solve these equations exactly, and small errors grow with time (doubling about every five days). Present understanding is that this chaotic behavior limits accurate forecasts to about 14 days even with perfectly accurate input data and a flawless model. In addition, the partial differential equations used in the model need to be supplemented with parameterizations for solar radiation, moist processes (clouds and precipitation), heat exchange, soil, vegetation, surface water, and the effects of terrain. In an effort to quantify the large amount of inherent uncertainty remaining in numerical predictions, ensemble forecasts have been used since the 1990s to help gauge the confidence in the forecast, and to obtain useful results farther into the future than otherwise possible. This approach analyzes multiple forecasts created with an individual forecast model or multiple models.