Communicating the Impacts of Potential Future Climate Change on
... A novel methodology for determining future rainfall frequency is described in this report. Isohyetal maps illustrate how heavy precipitation may change in the future, but the results have a high level of uncertainty expressed as very wide confidence limits. Uncertainty in possible future conditions ...
... A novel methodology for determining future rainfall frequency is described in this report. Isohyetal maps illustrate how heavy precipitation may change in the future, but the results have a high level of uncertainty expressed as very wide confidence limits. Uncertainty in possible future conditions ...
SEASONS IN THE SUN version for BRITA
... contexts. An attempt was made to group them according to their main weather theme, such as disasters, seasons, or events. Nevertheless, the frequency distribution of themes revealed the demarcation of the categories to be questionable, admittedly artificial and not absolutely distinct. This would me ...
... contexts. An attempt was made to group them according to their main weather theme, such as disasters, seasons, or events. Nevertheless, the frequency distribution of themes revealed the demarcation of the categories to be questionable, admittedly artificial and not absolutely distinct. This would me ...
IPCC. 2001. Tech Summary of Physical Science Basis
... observations have been made systematically only since the late 1940s. There are also long records of surface oceanic observations made from ships since the mid-19th century and by dedicated buoys since about the late 1970s. Sub-surface oceanic temperature measurements with near global coverage are n ...
... observations have been made systematically only since the late 1940s. There are also long records of surface oceanic observations made from ships since the mid-19th century and by dedicated buoys since about the late 1970s. Sub-surface oceanic temperature measurements with near global coverage are n ...
DICE 2013R - Yale Economics
... desirability of the distribution of incomes over space or time of existing conditions, any more than a marine biologist makes a moral judgment on the equity of the eating habits of sharks or guppies. We can put this point differently in terms of welfare improvements. The calculations of the potentia ...
... desirability of the distribution of incomes over space or time of existing conditions, any more than a marine biologist makes a moral judgment on the equity of the eating habits of sharks or guppies. We can put this point differently in terms of welfare improvements. The calculations of the potentia ...
Modeling the response of rice phenology to climate change and
... dataset. Mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures from 1980 to 2009 were obtained from CMA. Day length is a function of latitude and day of year (Spitters, 1986). The future climate scenarios used for this research were constructed from a regional climate model called the Regional Integrated Environm ...
... dataset. Mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures from 1980 to 2009 were obtained from CMA. Day length is a function of latitude and day of year (Spitters, 1986). The future climate scenarios used for this research were constructed from a regional climate model called the Regional Integrated Environm ...
Good practice for the usage of climate model simulation results
... A deterministic description of the future state of the climate system which can be verified with what really occurs at that point in time. This future state has to be a most likely one. For the time t it is based on knowledge at time t − 1. Forecasts are usually restricted to weather prediction time ...
... A deterministic description of the future state of the climate system which can be verified with what really occurs at that point in time. This future state has to be a most likely one. For the time t it is based on knowledge at time t − 1. Forecasts are usually restricted to weather prediction time ...
A 10-Year Multidisciplinary Program on the Mediterranean Water
... domain; more details in the text). Therefore, there is a need for better understanding the social and natural dynamics of such events in order to improve regional water cycle has therefore been affected and the forecasting and warning capabilities of the exposed will continue to be affected by decad ...
... domain; more details in the text). Therefore, there is a need for better understanding the social and natural dynamics of such events in order to improve regional water cycle has therefore been affected and the forecasting and warning capabilities of the exposed will continue to be affected by decad ...
Impacts of climate change on air pollution levels in the Northern
... limited cooperation and slower adaption of new technologies, together with an unstabilized population growth (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). The tropospheric sulphur concentrations are calculated interactively within the atmosphere model by including a simplified sulphur model. This sulphur model is dri ...
... limited cooperation and slower adaption of new technologies, together with an unstabilized population growth (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). The tropospheric sulphur concentrations are calculated interactively within the atmosphere model by including a simplified sulphur model. This sulphur model is dri ...
A comparison of local and aggregated climate model outputs with
... evidently unjustified because one of our comparison time scales is the climatic, 30-year, scale. In order to address the objection concerning the spatial scale, we will first attempt to clear up some confusion in the literature. Von Storch et al. (1993) introduced the notion of the “skillful scale” ...
... evidently unjustified because one of our comparison time scales is the climatic, 30-year, scale. In order to address the objection concerning the spatial scale, we will first attempt to clear up some confusion in the literature. Von Storch et al. (1993) introduced the notion of the “skillful scale” ...
Chapter12_January2013 - IARC Research
... ters from year to year; differences of up to about 25% have been observed based on Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) data in March and September, respectively (Frey et al. 2012). As the ice melts in spring, increased light and salinity-induced sta ...
... ters from year to year; differences of up to about 25% have been observed based on Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) data in March and September, respectively (Frey et al. 2012). As the ice melts in spring, increased light and salinity-induced sta ...
Forced Sahel rainfall trends in the CMIP5 archive.
... Research Unit gridded monthly precipitation datasets are used to assess trends in observations. The Hulme dataset [Hulme, 1992] covers 1900-1998 and TS3p1 [Mitchell and Jones, 2005] covers 1901-2009. The latter dataset optimizes for comprehensiveness and not stability, but the two sources agree well ...
... Research Unit gridded monthly precipitation datasets are used to assess trends in observations. The Hulme dataset [Hulme, 1992] covers 1900-1998 and TS3p1 [Mitchell and Jones, 2005] covers 1901-2009. The latter dataset optimizes for comprehensiveness and not stability, but the two sources agree well ...
- Wiley Online Library
... are affected by the surface roughness and in turn can change the EF and PBL growth, as can the production of aerosols. While these effects are usually of secondary importance, there are circumstances under which they may dominate. Almost all land and atmosphere dynamics involve some coupling between ...
... are affected by the surface roughness and in turn can change the EF and PBL growth, as can the production of aerosols. While these effects are usually of secondary importance, there are circumstances under which they may dominate. Almost all land and atmosphere dynamics involve some coupling between ...
Nonlinear response of mid-latitude weather to the changing Arctic
... reflected in observationally based studies that have struggled to find robust linkages11,12. Further, ...
... reflected in observationally based studies that have struggled to find robust linkages11,12. Further, ...
Approximate local magnetic-to-electric surface
... Multipole Method (MFMM) [25, 43, 30, 29] and Krylov subspace solvers [57]. Of course, other approaches may be considered like for example asymptotic methods [4]. In all case, the success of a numerical method for studying high frequency scattering is based on the fact that the method is stable and w ...
... Multipole Method (MFMM) [25, 43, 30, 29] and Krylov subspace solvers [57]. Of course, other approaches may be considered like for example asymptotic methods [4]. In all case, the success of a numerical method for studying high frequency scattering is based on the fact that the method is stable and w ...
Numerical weather prediction
Numerical weather prediction uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. Though first attempted in the 1920s, it was not until the advent of computer simulation in the 1950s that numerical weather predictions produced realistic results. A number of global and regional forecast models are run in different countries worldwide, using current weather observations relayed from radiosondes, weather satellites and other observing systems as inputs.Mathematical models based on the same physical principles can be used to generate either short-term weather forecasts or longer-term climate predictions; the latter are widely applied for understanding and projecting climate change. The improvements made to regional models have allowed for significant improvements in tropical cyclone track and air quality forecasts; however, atmospheric models perform poorly at handling processes that occur in a relatively constricted area, such as wildfires.Manipulating the vast datasets and performing the complex calculations necessary to modern numerical weather prediction requires some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world. Even with the increasing power of supercomputers, the forecast skill of numerical weather models extends to about only six days. Factors affecting the accuracy of numerical predictions include the density and quality of observations used as input to the forecasts, along with deficiencies in the numerical models themselves. Post-processing techniques such as model output statistics (MOS) have been developed to improve the handling of errors in numerical predictions.A more fundamental problem lies in the chaotic nature of the partial differential equations that govern the atmosphere. It is impossible to solve these equations exactly, and small errors grow with time (doubling about every five days). Present understanding is that this chaotic behavior limits accurate forecasts to about 14 days even with perfectly accurate input data and a flawless model. In addition, the partial differential equations used in the model need to be supplemented with parameterizations for solar radiation, moist processes (clouds and precipitation), heat exchange, soil, vegetation, surface water, and the effects of terrain. In an effort to quantify the large amount of inherent uncertainty remaining in numerical predictions, ensemble forecasts have been used since the 1990s to help gauge the confidence in the forecast, and to obtain useful results farther into the future than otherwise possible. This approach analyzes multiple forecasts created with an individual forecast model or multiple models.