Climate change intensification of horizontal water vapor transport in
... The employed Eulerian methodology identifies regions where the IVTs, and hence the transport through the atmospheric branch of the water cycle, are projected to change. ...
... The employed Eulerian methodology identifies regions where the IVTs, and hence the transport through the atmospheric branch of the water cycle, are projected to change. ...
A simple carbon cycle representation for
... Fig. 1 Atmospheric CO2 anomaly for BEAM and DICE (2007 and 2010) carbon models compared to intermediate complexity UVic and CLIMBER-2 models for the A2+ scenario (left). (See Section 5 for descriptions.) BEAM matches output of the more complex models well for the duration of the simulation, leading ...
... Fig. 1 Atmospheric CO2 anomaly for BEAM and DICE (2007 and 2010) carbon models compared to intermediate complexity UVic and CLIMBER-2 models for the A2+ scenario (left). (See Section 5 for descriptions.) BEAM matches output of the more complex models well for the duration of the simulation, leading ...
- Strathprints
... latest global atmospheric reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Data is available from January 1970 until August 2013, is generally downloadable in 3 hour time steps ...
... latest global atmospheric reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Data is available from January 1970 until August 2013, is generally downloadable in 3 hour time steps ...
A mechanism for dust-induced destabilization of
... et al., 1999). If the dust is further increased to ⇠ 30 times modern, an inversion develops (State 3, Fig. 1). In this state deep convection shuts off completely and deep convective precipitation is reduced by more than an order of magnitude (Fig. 1). We believe that the state in which the role of m ...
... et al., 1999). If the dust is further increased to ⇠ 30 times modern, an inversion develops (State 3, Fig. 1). In this state deep convection shuts off completely and deep convective precipitation is reduced by more than an order of magnitude (Fig. 1). We believe that the state in which the role of m ...
Mid-Pliocene Westerlies from PlioMIP Simulations
... analyzed the behavior and the possible mechanism involved in the change of the westerlies, mainly in terms of the jet stream position, in the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.3 to 3.0 million years ago) using simulations of 15 climate models from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Comp ...
... analyzed the behavior and the possible mechanism involved in the change of the westerlies, mainly in terms of the jet stream position, in the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.3 to 3.0 million years ago) using simulations of 15 climate models from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Comp ...
Figure 3-1 - Trace: Tennessee Research and Creative Exchange
... climate change on humans; in other words, the regional and decadal scale effects of carbon dioxide forcing. Identifying the most pronounced and long-lasting responses of climate variables to forcing is important for decadal prediction since forcing terms are a source of predictability on those time ...
... climate change on humans; in other words, the regional and decadal scale effects of carbon dioxide forcing. Identifying the most pronounced and long-lasting responses of climate variables to forcing is important for decadal prediction since forcing terms are a source of predictability on those time ...
the value of climate services across economic and public sectors
... Meteorological Organization (WMO, 2007), the global costs of weather-, climate- and waterrelated disasters may exceed 100,000 deaths and $100 billion U.S. dollars (USD) of damage in a single year (worldwide). However, participants taking part in a WMO-sponsored conference on the social and economic ...
... Meteorological Organization (WMO, 2007), the global costs of weather-, climate- and waterrelated disasters may exceed 100,000 deaths and $100 billion U.S. dollars (USD) of damage in a single year (worldwide). However, participants taking part in a WMO-sponsored conference on the social and economic ...
New Insights on the Physical Nature of the Atmospheric Greenhouse
... A recent study has revealed that the Earth’s natural atmospheric greenhouse effect is around 90 K or about 2.7 times stronger than assumed for the past 40 years. A thermal enhancement of such a magnitude cannot be explained with the observed amount of outgoing infrared long-wave radiation absorbed b ...
... A recent study has revealed that the Earth’s natural atmospheric greenhouse effect is around 90 K or about 2.7 times stronger than assumed for the past 40 years. A thermal enhancement of such a magnitude cannot be explained with the observed amount of outgoing infrared long-wave radiation absorbed b ...
Greening of the Earth and its drivers
... elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (eCO2 ), regional climate change (temperature, precipitation and radiation), and varying rates of nitrogen deposition. Land-use-related drivers involve changes in land cover and in land management intensity, including fertilization, irrigation, forestry and gra ...
... elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (eCO2 ), regional climate change (temperature, precipitation and radiation), and varying rates of nitrogen deposition. Land-use-related drivers involve changes in land cover and in land management intensity, including fertilization, irrigation, forestry and gra ...
Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using
... 7 Wageningen University and Research Centre, Wageningen, the Netherlands 8 Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Kassel, Germany 9 Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK 2 Centre ...
... 7 Wageningen University and Research Centre, Wageningen, the Netherlands 8 Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Kassel, Germany 9 Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK 2 Centre ...
Climate change in Australia | Central Slopes cluster report
... periods: the near future 2020–2039 (herein referred to as 2030) and late in the century 2080–2099 (herein referred to as 2090). The spread of model results are presented as the range between the 10th and 90th percentile in the CMIP5 ensemble output. For each time period, the model spread can be attr ...
... periods: the near future 2020–2039 (herein referred to as 2030) and late in the century 2080–2099 (herein referred to as 2090). The spread of model results are presented as the range between the 10th and 90th percentile in the CMIP5 ensemble output. For each time period, the model spread can be attr ...
Comparison of land-surface humidity between observations and
... in HadISDH to pull out regions where there have been strong or weak changes over the period of the dataset (Sect. 3). We then assess whether the models broadly capture observed features in temperature, specific humidity and relative humidity on the largest temporal and spatial (zonal) scales (Sect. ...
... in HadISDH to pull out regions where there have been strong or weak changes over the period of the dataset (Sect. 3). We then assess whether the models broadly capture observed features in temperature, specific humidity and relative humidity on the largest temporal and spatial (zonal) scales (Sect. ...
Results from the EISMINT model intercomparison: the effects of
... Sheet Modelling Initiative (EISMINT). It reports the intercomparison of ten operational ice-sheet models and uses a series of experiments to examine the implications of thermomechanical coupling for model behaviour. A schematic, circular ice sheet is used in the work which investigates both steady s ...
... Sheet Modelling Initiative (EISMINT). It reports the intercomparison of ten operational ice-sheet models and uses a series of experiments to examine the implications of thermomechanical coupling for model behaviour. A schematic, circular ice sheet is used in the work which investigates both steady s ...
The future of food demand: understanding differences in global
... as climate change and natural resource depletion threaten the capacity of agriculture to continue these trends in the long term. Simulating possible agricultural futures requires analytical tools that can represent world agriculture in a comprehensive way and reproduce the main structural drivers of ...
... as climate change and natural resource depletion threaten the capacity of agriculture to continue these trends in the long term. Simulating possible agricultural futures requires analytical tools that can represent world agriculture in a comprehensive way and reproduce the main structural drivers of ...
Predicting regional climate change: living with uncertainty
... commonly develop statistical relationships between local climate variables and model predictors, and then apply those relationships to model climate scenarios to derive estimations of localized climate change. Such statistical links may be made directly by regression (Kim et al., 1984), via circulat ...
... commonly develop statistical relationships between local climate variables and model predictors, and then apply those relationships to model climate scenarios to derive estimations of localized climate change. Such statistical links may be made directly by regression (Kim et al., 1984), via circulat ...
Numerical weather prediction
Numerical weather prediction uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. Though first attempted in the 1920s, it was not until the advent of computer simulation in the 1950s that numerical weather predictions produced realistic results. A number of global and regional forecast models are run in different countries worldwide, using current weather observations relayed from radiosondes, weather satellites and other observing systems as inputs.Mathematical models based on the same physical principles can be used to generate either short-term weather forecasts or longer-term climate predictions; the latter are widely applied for understanding and projecting climate change. The improvements made to regional models have allowed for significant improvements in tropical cyclone track and air quality forecasts; however, atmospheric models perform poorly at handling processes that occur in a relatively constricted area, such as wildfires.Manipulating the vast datasets and performing the complex calculations necessary to modern numerical weather prediction requires some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world. Even with the increasing power of supercomputers, the forecast skill of numerical weather models extends to about only six days. Factors affecting the accuracy of numerical predictions include the density and quality of observations used as input to the forecasts, along with deficiencies in the numerical models themselves. Post-processing techniques such as model output statistics (MOS) have been developed to improve the handling of errors in numerical predictions.A more fundamental problem lies in the chaotic nature of the partial differential equations that govern the atmosphere. It is impossible to solve these equations exactly, and small errors grow with time (doubling about every five days). Present understanding is that this chaotic behavior limits accurate forecasts to about 14 days even with perfectly accurate input data and a flawless model. In addition, the partial differential equations used in the model need to be supplemented with parameterizations for solar radiation, moist processes (clouds and precipitation), heat exchange, soil, vegetation, surface water, and the effects of terrain. In an effort to quantify the large amount of inherent uncertainty remaining in numerical predictions, ensemble forecasts have been used since the 1990s to help gauge the confidence in the forecast, and to obtain useful results farther into the future than otherwise possible. This approach analyzes multiple forecasts created with an individual forecast model or multiple models.